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U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Closing Daily
Monday, August 10, 2026 — Full Market Close Report | Data as of: ~10:30 PM ET (Fed-probability cards timestamped Aug 10, 2026 10:05 PM EDT)
Prepared for Institutional Investors. Not Personalized Investment Advice; Verify Independently before Acting. · Full sourcing, vendor reconciliations and the Overnight/Asia read-through are in the companion file US_CrossAsset_Daily_2026-08-10_DataNotes.txt
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1 · Executive Dashboard |
| Index | Close | Chg | %Chg | Note |
|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,753.11 | −4.53 | −0.06% | Range 7,743.11–7,773.76. The intraday high was a fresh all-time record — 10.68 points above Friday's 7,763.08 peak — and the index closed 0.27% below it, in the red. The single most important shape on the board |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,605.36 | −85.26 | −0.32% | Range 26,548.26–26,724.63. The laggard of the three majors for the first session in six |
| Dow Jones Industrials | 53,975.98 | −60.95 | −0.11% | Range 53,850.19–54,072.66. Chevron +$8.36 of index price could not offset Nvidia −$6.40, Apple −$5.08, Goldman −$5.09 and Home Depot −$4.84 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,621.80 | −100.50 | −0.34% | Range 29,606.47–29,784.21; closed 0.55% off the high and 3.71% below the 30,762.20 record |
| Russell 2000 | 3,017.40 | −17.09 | −0.56% | Range 3,013.13–3,031.81. The worst of the four equity indices on a day the 10-year rose 7 bp — small caps gave back Friday's outperformance in full |
| VIX | 15.46 | +0.56 | +3.76% | Range 15.10–15.72. The first advance in five sessions, and it came on a 0.06% index move |
| PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) | 11,993.9 | −362.9 | −2.94% | Range 11,992.9–12,432.9. Opened at 12,424.7, closed one tenth of a point off the session low — a 3.53% high-to-close fade and the worst intraday shape of the month |
| UST 10Y (official par) | 4.72% | +7 bp | — | Bloomberg's board 4.71% (+6 bp) at 4:59 PM; WSJ real-time 4.713% (+6.2 bp) |
| UST 2Y (official par) | 4.25% | +6 bp | — | The entire Friday payroll rally was retraced in one session (§6) |
| UST 30Y (official par) | 5.25% | +6 bp | — | 20Y +5 bp to 5.25%; WSJ 30Y 5.254% |
| UST 3M (official par) | 3.89% | +2 bp | — | The bill rose least and the 7-year most — the opposite of Friday's shape (§6, §9) |
| WTI front month (Sep) | $82.13 | +5.05% | — | Settlement. The largest single-day advance since the Hormuz closure; a fourth consecutive daily gain |
| Brent front month (Oct) | $87.72 | +4.99% | — | Settlement |
| Gold (Comex Dec, settle) | $4,419.70 | +0.42% | — | Spot ~$4,378.76, +0.81% (TradingEconomics dated series). Gold rose on a day real yields rose 7 bp and the dollar firmed — §11 |
| Silver (Sep, settle) | $65.272 | +2.23% | — | The best-performing metal on the board and a fresh seven-week high |
| Copper (Sep, settle) | $6.6358/lb | +0.99% | — | Reversed Friday's −1.73% almost exactly — the non-participant participated |
| DXY | 99.811 | +0.21% | 24h | TradingEconomics; the vendor's daily boundary had rolled, so this is a 24-hour reconstruction (§10) |
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| Sources: CNBC market live blog for 10 August ("S&P 500 closes little changed"; "U.S. oil hits $80 a barrel"; "Intel shares drop after $15 billion common stock offering announcement"; "Stocks making big moves: MarineMax, Varex Imaging, Corning"; "Berkshire shares rise 2% after solid earnings and pickup in cash deployment"; "Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Verisk Analytics and Apple among the stocks making moves before the bell"; "Market rally doesn't have 'much juice left to squeeze,' Jonathan Krinsky says"; "Odds of S&P 500 hitting 9,000 are rising, Evercore says"); Bloomberg /markets and /markets/rates-bonds boards and "Bonds Fall on Inflation Concern, Oil Holds Advance: Markets Wrap", "US Stocks End Mixed as Chipmaker Earnings, CPI Due to Set Pace", "Gold Climbs Above $4,400 as Traders Turn Focus to US Inflation"; WSJ Market Data Bonds & Rates; Investing.com Major Indices, NDX, SOX, U.S.-500-component and real-time-futures boards (equity boards stamped 15:59:59); U.S. Treasury Text View; CME FedWatch (complete numeric four-column table, data as of 10 Aug 2026 09:24:59 CT) and Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor (Aug 10, 2026 10:05 PM EDT); FRED; NY Fed SOFR/EFFR and the August indicator calendar; TradingEconomics; Finviz Groups; Earnings Whispers day pages 8/11–8/21. |
| The tape in one paragraph: The S&P 500 made a new all-time intraday high at 7,773.76 and closed red, and the reason is written in three numbers that all point the same way — WTI +5.05%, the 10-year +7 bp, and the September fed funds hike back to being the modal outcome. There was no "Very high" sensitivity release in the past twelve hours — the U.S. calendar was empty on Monday, the only blank weekday in August — and there is no "Very high" release in the next twenty-four hours either: Tuesday brings NAR Existing Home Sales at 10:00 a.m. ET (Medium) and the Consumer Credit Panel at 11:00 a.m. (Low), with July CPI not until Wednesday 8:30 (§7). In the absence of data the market traded the barrel. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is not in direct talks with Washington and that reopening the Strait of Hormuz requires the U.S. to end its blockade of Iranian shipping and compensate for damages; Westpac noted "the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed" as the Iran war enters its sixth month, and U.S. Central Command posted that as of 9 August it had "redirected 55 commercial vessels, disabled 2, and boarded 2." Crude settled +5.05% at $82.13 and Brent +4.99% at $87.72 — a fourth consecutive advance — and the Finviz Energy group rose 3.60%, more than five times the next-best sector, with APA +9.01%, Marathon Petroleum +7.42%, Diamondback +5.81%, Phillips 66 +5.69%, Valero +5.58%, EOG +5.55%, Devon +5.54%, Halliburton +5.49%, Schlumberger +5.28%, Occidental +4.90%, ConocoPhillips +4.61%, Chevron +4.48% and Exxon +4.41%. The bond market read the same headline as an inflation event and it did so globally: the U.S. 10-year rose 7 bp on the official par curve to 4.72%, Canada +7 bp, the UK +7 bp, France, Italy, Spain and Greece +6 bp, Germany +5 bp, Brazil +9 bp (Bloomberg, 4:59 PM). This was not a U.S. supply story; it was a synchronised inflation-premium repricing ahead of Wednesday's CPI, and it took the whole of Friday's payroll rally back — the 2-year is exactly where it closed on 3 August and the 10-year is 2 bp above it. The Fed card flipped with it: CME's September hold fell from 55.6% to 48.8% and the hike became modal at 51.2%, while Investing.com's hold went 56.6% → 50.9% (§8). Equities absorbed all of that with remarkable calm at the index level and none at all underneath it. Breadth was 221 up against 267 down of 488 constituents screened, with a median move of −0.23%, and the dispersion was entirely a rates-and-crude story: Real Estate −1.33%, Utilities −1.29%, Technology −0.93% and Industrials −0.17% against Energy +3.60% and Healthcare +1.30%. The clearest casualty was the AI-infrastructure complex, and it was not subtle: the SOX fell 2.94% and closed one tenth of a point off its session low after opening at 12,424.7, a 3.53% high-to-close fade, with Coherent −12%, Lumentum −6%+, Corning −4.78%, Intel −4.06% on a $15bn common stock offering, Applied Materials −3.16%, Nvidia −2.86%, AMD −2.86%, KLA −2.71% and NXP −2.62%. Apple −1.62% after Jefferies cut it to Underperform from Hold on supply-chain checks indicating an all-glass iPhone has been cancelled. Against that, three things did not confirm the risk-off. Gold rose — Comex December settled +0.42% at $4,419.70 and spot +0.81% to roughly $4,378.76 — on a day the 10-year real yield rose 7 bp and the dollar gained 0.21%, which is the opposite of Friday's mechanism and means the bid has rotated from carry to inflation hedge. Credit-sensitive equity did not break: the Finviz Financial group closed +0.11% and Berkshire Hathaway B rose 1.46% to $529.42 after second-quarter operating earnings rose 16%, a $4.5bn buyback against $235m in the first quarter, and the first net equity purchase in fifteen quarters. And the VIX rose only 0.56 to 15.46 on a session that repriced the September FOMC by seven points of probability. BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, writing before the open, said of the equal-weight rally that "a lot of buying has been done and the risk of an air-pocket is now much higher," while Evercore's Julian Emanuel argued the opposite — that "the odds for our bull case SPX 9,000 have strengthened" and that "more upside will be driven by more volatility." Monday was the first session in a fortnight that gave the second half of Emanuel's sentence without the first. |
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2 · Market Hot Spots (ranked by tradability) |
| 1. The Hormuz trade reversed, and the energy complex repriced 3.60% in a single session. WTI September settled +5.05% at $82.13 and Brent October +4.99% at $87.72, a fourth consecutive daily gain, after Araghchi said Tehran is not currently in direct talks with the U.S. and that any reopening requires Washington to end its blockade of Iranian shipping and pay compensation — a hardening of terms against a weekend in which Iran had called a deal "very close." CENTCOM's own post recorded 55 commercial vessels redirected, 2 disabled and 2 boarded as of 9 August. The equity translation was mechanical and complete: the Finviz Energy group +3.60% on the day and +33.23% year to date, now the best sector of 2026 by 9.77 points, with the refiners leading the producers — Marathon Petroleum +7.42% to $320.32, Phillips 66 +5.69% to $215.52 and Valero +5.58% to $314.95 all beat Exxon's +4.41%. A refining-led energy rally on a supply-disruption headline is the crack spread widening, not the barrel: product is short because the transit disruption hits refined-product logistics harder than it hits crude availability (§11, where RBOB +5.89% and heating oil +7.28% both outran crude). This report's 7 August idea 3 — long integrated energy equity against short September WTI — was the wrong way round on the day (§12). Forward catalyst: any Iranian Supreme National Security Council announcement; and the EIA weekly on 8/12. |
| 2. The global bond market repriced inflation before CPI, and it did so in every jurisdiction at once. The U.S. official par 10-year rose 7 bp to 4.72%, the 7-year 7 bp to 4.56%, the 2s, 3s and 5s 6 bp each, the 30-year 6 bp to 5.25% and the 3-month only 2 bp to 3.89% (§6). Bloomberg's 4:59 p.m. board shows the same move everywhere: Canada +7 bp, the United Kingdom +7 bp, France +6, Italy +6, Spain +6, Greece +6, Netherlands +5, Germany +5, Switzerland +4, Brazil +9. Bloomberg's wrap named the cause explicitly — "oil's four-day rally revived inflation concerns before key US consumer price data later this week." The diagnostic matters: this is a belly-and-long-led bear-steepener with the bill anchored — 3M10Y widened 5 bp to 83 bp while 2s30s was unchanged at 100 bp — which is the signature of an inflation-premium repricing rather than a policy-path repricing. A policy-path move would have led with the 2-year and dragged the bill; this one led with the 7-year and left the bill 5 bp behind. Forward catalyst: July CPI, Wednesday 8/12 at 8:30 (§7). |
| 3. The AI-infrastructure and photonics complex was liquidated, and the SOX closed on its low. The SOX opened at 12,424.7, printed a high of 12,432.9 and closed at 11,993.9 — one tenth of a point off the session low of 11,992.9 and 3.53% below the high. A close at the low after an open at the high is a distribution shape, not a rotation shape. The names were specific: Coherent −12% and Lumentum −6%+ (CNBC midday marks), Corning −4.78% to $157.76, the Global X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure ETF −1%, Intel −4.06% to $97.52, Applied Materials −3.16% to $522.12, Nvidia −2.86% to $217.55, AMD −2.86% to $469.56, Teradyne −3.75%, Microchip −3.90% (reversing Friday's +13.89%), Qualcomm −3.39% (reversing Friday's +4.65%), KLA −2.71%, NXP −2.62%, Texas Instruments −1.97%, Micron −1.89%, ON Semiconductor −1.71%, Lam Research −1.59%, Analog Devices −1.54%. Two names did not participate in the decline and both are memory: Western Digital +0.93% and Seagate −1.45% — the exact inverse of last week's pattern. The immediate catalysts were supply-side: Intel's $15bn common stock offering, and Coherent and Lumentum trading down into their own prints (§5). Forward catalyst: Lumentum 8/11 AMC, Coherent 8/12 AMC, Applied Materials 8/13 AMC. |
| 4. The September hike is the modal outcome again, and it took one crude session to get there. CME's four-column table: the September hold fell from 55.6% (7 Aug settlement) to 48.8% now, and the 375–400 hike rose from 44.4% to 51.2% — a 6.8-point swing, undoing more than half of Friday's payroll move. Investing.com's card, timestamped Aug 10 10:05 PM EDT, shows the same direction from a different level: hold 56.6% → 50.9%, hike 43.4% → 49.1%. The week-over-week picture is the more useful one: CME's hold was 32.8% on 3 August, is 48.8% now, and was 55.6% on Friday — the market has moved 23 points in one direction and 7 back inside five sessions, on one payroll print and one oil rally. Further out the move was larger than at the front: the December-2026 contract fell from 96.110 to 96.085 and the probability of the funds rate sitting at or above 4.00% at end-2026 rose from 32.4% to 37.0% (§8). Forward catalyst: CPI 8/12 — and §8 quantifies that one basis point of the September contract is worth about eight points of headline probability. |
| 5. A record intraday high that closed red, with the duration half of the index doing all the damage. The S&P printed 7,773.76 intraday — 10.68 points above Friday's record intraday high and 16.12 above Friday's record close — and finished at 7,753.11, down 4.53 points. Failed record highs are the market's cheapest information, and this one came with a VIX that rose only 3.76% to 15.46 and a median constituent move of −0.23%. The composition tells you what failed: the names that closed green were overwhelmingly energy and defensives, and the ones that closed red were duration — DR Horton −2.93%, Lennar −2.93%, Builders FirstSource −3.63%, Masco −3.60%, Pool −3.07%, Duke Energy −2.93%, Real Estate −1.33% as a group, Utilities −1.29%. When the highest-multiple and longest-duration parts of the index cannot hold a record print on a day the 10-year rises 7 bp, the record was a rate-driven high, not an earnings-driven one. |
| 6. The consumer-travel complex took the crude move directly, and it took it harder than the index. Southwest −4.57% to $44.90, United Airlines −4.48% to $123.76, Carnival −4.28% to $27.75, Royal Caribbean −3.75% to $308.00, Norwegian Cruise Line −3.64% to $18.55. Five of the fifteen worst S&P 500 performers were airlines or cruise lines on a day the index fell 0.06%. The mechanism is jet fuel and bunker fuel: heating oil, the distillate proxy, settled +7.28% and RBOB +5.89%, both faster than crude's +5.05% (§11). This is the cleanest short-side expression of the Hormuz repricing available in equity, and unlike the energy producers it has no offsetting revenue leg. Forward catalyst: a Hormuz reopening announcement reverses it violently. |
| 7. Gold rose on a day real yields rose, and that is a different trade from Friday's. Comex December gold settled +0.42% at $4,419.70 and spot rose 0.81% to roughly $4,378.76, with Bloomberg's headline "Gold Climbs Above $4,400 as Traders Turn Focus to US Inflation." On Friday gold rose 2.44% because the 2-year fell 6 bp and the dollar fell 0.33% — a carry trade. On Monday gold rose while the 2-year rose 6 bp, the 10-year rose 7 bp and the dollar rose 0.21% — the carry mechanism ran in reverse and the metal went up anyway. The only reading consistent with both sessions is that the marginal buyer switched from a rates trader to an inflation hedger between Friday and Monday, and the corroborating evidence is that silver outran gold again (+2.23% against +0.42% on the futures basis) while copper also rose 0.99% — the whole metals complex participated, which is an inflation signature, not a real-rate signature (§11). |
| 8. The yen has now given back the entire 31 July intervention. USD/JPY rose 1.03% over 24 hours to 159.276 (§10). The pair traded 163 before the joint U.S.–Japan action of 31 July, 155 immediately after it, 157.65 on Friday evening, and 159.28 now. Ten days after a coordinated intervention the currency is 4.3 yen weaker than the level it bought and less than 4 yen from the pre-intervention print. Japanese cash markets were shut on Tuesday for a public holiday, so there is no domestic bid to test the level with, and the U.S. 10-year at 4.72% has widened the differential by 7 bp in a session. This is the single largest unhedged risk in the FX section (§13). |
3 · Sector Performance — August 10, 2026 (Finviz classification, rendered Performance view) |
| Sector | 1-Day | 1-Week | YTD |
|---|
| Energy | +3.60% | +1.15% | +33.23% |
| Healthcare | +1.30% | +3.92% | +8.77% |
| Communication Services | +0.63% | −1.96% | +0.93% |
| Basic Materials | +0.58% | +8.27% | +17.25% |
| Consumer Cyclical | +0.24% | +0.57% | −0.51% |
| Financial | +0.11% | +0.47% | +8.39% |
| Industrials | −0.17% | +2.69% | +15.98% |
| Consumer Defensive | −0.41% | +0.02% | +7.89% |
| Technology | −0.93% | +4.27% | +23.46% |
| Utilities | −1.29% | −2.53% | +0.94% |
| Real Estate | −1.33% | −1.80% | +9.52% |
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| Six green, five red, and a 4.93-point dispersion — the widest of the month and more than double Friday's 3.80 points — but the whole of it is one sector. Energy +3.60% is 2.30 points clear of the next-best group and is on its own responsible for the S&P being flat rather than down half a percent. Strip it out and the tape is uniformly negative: the median of the other ten groups is −0.03% and seven of them are red or flat. Energy's year-to-date +33.23% now leads Technology's +23.46% by 9.77 points and Basic Materials' +17.25% by 15.98 points — the sector that spent 2025 as the market's funding source is 2026's runaway leader, and it has added 4.62 points of YTD performance in the last three sessions alone. Healthcare +1.30% was the quiet second-place finish and the more interesting one: Vertex +5.61% to $523.91 and Merck +1.82% to $130.92 led a group that is +3.92% on the week, and a defensive sector outperforming on a day the 10-year rose 7 bp is a rotation into cash-flow-now rather than a rates trade. |
| Technology −0.93% is where the damage was concentrated and the internal spread is the story: Palo Alto Networks +5.82% to $385.04, CrowdStrike +5.01% to $225.16, NetApp +4.85%, Oracle +2.74% and Salesforce +2.47% against Corning −4.78%, Intel −4.06%, Microchip −3.90%, Teradyne −3.75%, Qualcomm −3.39%, Applied Materials −3.16%, Nvidia −2.86%, AMD −2.86% — a 10.6-point spread between the best and worst large-cap technology names, and it splits exactly along the line between security software and silicon. Security software has now outperformed semiconductors on three of the last four sessions, which is a rotation inside the sector and not a de-rating of it. Real Estate −1.33% and Utilities −1.29% were the two worst groups and they are the two most rate-sensitive: Duke Energy −2.93%, CBRE −2.86%, Simon Property −1.06% into its own after-close print. Utilities are now +0.94% year to date against Energy's +33.23% — a 32-point spread that did not exist in January. Communication Services +0.63% was green for the first time in four sessions, with Alphabet A +0.91% and Alphabet C +0.67% finally participating and Meta +0.48% — the persistent non-participant this report flagged for three consecutive sessions turned up on the one day the index fell. Financial +0.11% is the same disappointment in the opposite direction from Friday: a 7 bp rise in the 10-year and a 5 bp widening of 3M10Y is the textbook net-interest-margin trade, and the group managed 11 basis points, with JPMorgan +0.63% against Goldman Sachs −0.49%. Banks have now declined to trade the curve in both directions on consecutive sessions, which says the equity market is pricing loan-book credit rather than deposit-book margin. Finviz buckets are not official GICS/S&P sector indices — they screen all U.S.-listed names. |
| Reconciliation. All eleven groups were checked against Friday's published YTD compounded by Monday's 1-day move: Energy 1.2861 × 1.0360 = +33.24% vs. 33.23% shown; Basic Materials +17.26% vs. 17.25%; Healthcare +8.77% (exact); Consumer Cyclical −0.51% (exact); Real Estate +9.51% vs. 9.52%; Consumer Defensive +7.90% vs. 7.89%; Technology +23.44% vs. 23.46%; Communication Services +0.95% vs. 0.93%; Financial +8.56% vs. 8.39% (0.17 pt); Industrials +16.13% vs. 15.98% (0.15 pt); Utilities +1.08% vs. 0.94% (0.14 pt). Maximum deviation 0.17 pt; median 0.02 pt; two groups exact. The three drifting groups carry post-earnings market-cap shifts from last week's reporters, and Utilities is the smallest group by aggregate volume on the board, so its cap-weighted YTD is the most sensitive to a single constituent. Flagged rather than smoothed. |
4 · Movers & Single-Name Catalysts |
| Up |
| • MarineMax (HZO) +46% (not an S&P 500 constituent) — agreed to be acquired by Blackstone Infrastructure's Safe Harbor Marinas at $53.00 a share in cash, valuing the boat and yacht retailer at $1.5bn, closing by end-2026. The largest single-name move on the U.S. tape. |
| • Varex Imaging (VREX) +48% (not an S&P 500 constituent) — Teledyne Technologies agreed to buy the imaging-component maker at $18.90 a share in cash, closing early 2027. Teledyne itself finished −0.15% at $690.25 — the acquirer barely moved, which is what a small bolt-on looks like. |
| • APA Corporation (APA) +9.01% to $41.02 — the best S&P 500 performer, and the highest-beta U.S. producer to a Hormuz disruption. |
| • Marathon Petroleum (MPC) +7.42% to $320.32 — the best of the refiners and the second-best name in the index; see §2 item 1 on the crack spread. |
| • Akamai (AKAM) +6.43% to $117.65 — Friday's worst S&P 500 performer at −6.76% became Monday's third best. No new company catalyst appeared in the reviewed sources; this is a mean-reversion trade in a name that fell 9.6% over two sessions, and it is worth noting precisely because there was no news. |
| • CF Industries (CF) +6.24% to $121.48 — nitrogen fertiliser is a natural-gas derivative and Henry Hub September settled +4.08%. |
| • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) +5.82% to $385.04 and CrowdStrike (CRWD) +5.01% to $225.16 — the two best large-cap technology names on a day the Technology group fell 0.93%. |
| • Diamondback (FANG) +5.81% to $198.97, Phillips 66 (PSX) +5.69% to $215.52, Valero (VLO) +5.58% to $314.95, EOG Resources (EOG) +5.55% to $142.22, Devon Energy (DVN) +5.54% to $45.36, Halliburton (HAL) +5.49% to $33.64, Schlumberger (SLB) +5.28% to $53.20, Occidental (OXY) +4.90% to $58.65, EQT +4.62% to $54.08, ConocoPhillips (COP) +4.61% to $123.03, ONEOK (OKE) +4.54% to $90.34, Chevron (CVX) +4.48% to $194.91, Exxon Mobil (XOM) +4.41% to $159.79, Baker Hughes (BKR) +4.09% to $64.07 — fourteen energy names in the top twenty-five, and the sector's breadth was total. |
| • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) +5.61% to $523.91 — the best healthcare name and the fourth-best in the index outside energy. |
| • LyondellBasell (LYB) +5.14% to $62.65 and Dow Inc (DOW) +4.23% to $30.58 — the two worst chemicals names of Friday (−3.01% and −3.17%) were the two best on Monday. Chemicals rallying on a 5% crude move is counter-intuitive on feedstock cost and makes sense only as a reversal of Friday's forced selling. |
| • Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) +5.09% to $80.49, NetApp (NTAP) +4.85% to $198.72, Axon Enterprise (AXON) +4.43% to $596.33, Broadridge (BR) +4.14% to $173.40, CoStar (CSGP) +4.10% to $31.48, Gartner (IT) +4.08% to $193.17, Uber (UBER) +4.01% to $78.03. |
| • Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) +2.74% to $54.68 — Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight, arguing the market underappreciates "the asymmetry between HPE's earnings power and valuation." Note the fade: the stock was up more than 5% pre-market and closed up 2.74%, giving back roughly half the upgrade pop. |
| • Berkshire Hathaway B (BRK.B) +1.46% to $529.42 — second-quarter operating earnings +16% on energy, railroad and other-business strength offsetting weaker insurance underwriting; $4.5bn of buybacks against $235m in Q1; the first net equity purchase in fifteen quarters at nearly $20bn more bought than sold; cash down to $365.5bn from a record $397.4bn. Class A shares were +2.3% in morning trade; the B shares closed +1.46%, so roughly a third of the move faded into the bell. |
| • Salesforce (CRM) +2.47% to $197.51, Oracle (ORCL) +2.74% to $151.05, Palantir (PLTR) +1.87% to $175.23, Merck (MRK) +1.82% to $130.92, Vistra (VST) +1.62% to $142.87, Amazon (AMZN) +1.32% to $278.09, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) +1.28% to $70.51, Microsoft (MSFT) +1.21% to $506.06. |
| • GameStop (GME) +2%+ (not an S&P 500 constituent) — Bloomberg reported the company is weighing abandoning its $56bn unsolicited bid for eBay, which eBay rejected in May as "neither credible nor attractive." eBay itself fell 3.81% to $107.71 — the target sold off on the news the bidder may walk. |
| • Analyst actions elsewhere: Mizuho's Vijay Rakesh on Broadcom, seeing the custom AI-ASIC business expanding beyond Google to Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic and Apple with the largest opportunity in 2028 from CoPoS and EMIB packaging — "we see it best positioned in AI ASIC market at a significant discount"; Broadcom still closed −1.25% at $422.40. Bank of America maintained Buy on Nvidia as a top sector pick, calling memory and circular-financing concerns "overblown" ahead of the 26 August print; Nvidia closed −2.86%. Citi's John Godyn reiterated Buy on SpaceX with a $200 target (~50% upside) and Deutsche Bank's Edison Yu a Buy with $235, citing a "fast path" to a $100bn annualised revenue run rate; SpaceX briefly regained its $135 IPO price intraday and finished marginally lower. |
| Down |
| • Verisk Analytics (VRSK) −5.55% to $181.18 — the worst S&P 500 performer. A Delaware judge ruled on Friday that Verisk must proceed with its $2.35bn acquisition of AccuLynx, a deal Verisk terminated in December after an FTC review overran the termination date. A forced $2.35bn purchase is a balance-sheet event and the stock traded it as one. |
| • Corning (GLW) −4.78% to $157.76 — the largest S&P 500 casualty of the AI-infrastructure de-rating, and a complete round-trip of Friday's +5.41%. |
| • Southwest Airlines (LUV) −4.57% to $44.90, United Airlines (UAL) −4.48% to $123.76, Carnival (CCL) −4.28% to $27.75, Royal Caribbean (RCL) −3.75% to $308.00, Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) −3.64% to $18.55 — see §2 item 6. |
| • First Solar (FSLR) −4.29% to $239.33 — giving back Friday's +2.42% polysilicon-tariff pop and more, on a session with no new solar policy headline. |
| • Altria (MO) −4.11% to $65.54 — the largest consumer-defensive decline and the reason that group finished −0.41%. |
| • Intel (INTC) −4.06% to $97.52 — a $15bn common stock offering announced pre-market, for "general corporate purposes… including capital expenditures and working capital," justified by customers who "continue to signal a strong and sustainable demand environment." A capital raise framed as a demand story still dilutes, and the stock fell 3% pre-market and 4.06% on the day. |
| • Microchip (MCHP) −3.90% to $81.39 — Friday's second-best S&P 500 performer at +13.89%. Two sessions, +13.89% then −3.90%: the analog complex is now the highest-realised-volatility corner of the index. |
| • eBay (EBAY) −3.81% to $107.71, Teradyne (TER) −3.75% to $365.10, Builders FirstSource (BLDR) −3.63% to $71.98, Masco (MAS) −3.60% to $74.72, Yum! Brands (YUM) −3.60% to $145.33, PPG Industries (PPG) −3.54% to $115.48, Qualcomm (QCOM) −3.39% to $162.17, Dollar General (DG) −3.29% to $122.42, Applied Materials (AMAT) −3.16% to $522.12 (reports 8/13 AMC — see §5), Pentair (PNR) −3.14%, Pool Corp (POOL) −3.07% to $199.98, DoorDash (DASH) −2.96% to $209.86, DR Horton (DHI) −2.93% to $146.66, Lennar (LEN) −2.93% to $85.60, Duke Energy (DUK) −2.93% to $121.19, Ulta Beauty (ULTA) −2.92% to $548.66, Generac (GNRC) −2.89% to $206.09, Nvidia (NVDA) −2.86% to $217.55, AMD −2.86% to $469.56, CBRE −2.86% to $143.94, KLA (KLAC) −2.71% to $192.74, NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) −2.62% to $233.43. |
| • Coherent (COHR) −12% and Lumentum (LITE) −6%+ (CNBC midday marks; neither is carried by this report's S&P 500 screening board — see §5) — the two worst photonics names, both reporting this week. A 12% decline into a print two days away is positioning, not fundamentals. |
| • Apple (AAPL) −1.62% to $308.26 — Jefferies downgraded to Underperform from Hold, with supply-chain checks concluding that an all-glass iPhone — never publicly announced — appears to have been cancelled, removing a lever Apple needs to build more expensive devices against rising memory cost. |
| • Doximity (DOCS) −5%+ (not an S&P 500 constituent) — Wells Fargo's Stan Berenshteyn cut to Underweight from Equal Weight with an $18 target, roughly 34% below Friday's close, two sessions after a 32% single-day surge: "upside increasingly depends on an AI narrative that is difficult to translate into estimates." The stock is down more than 41% in 2026 even after Friday's best day in over a year. |
| • Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) −6% after hours (not an S&P 500 constituent) — a second-quarter net loss of $0.37 a share against net income of $0.17 a year earlier on rising expenses, despite a raised full-year revenue outlook. |
| • Simon Property Group (SPG) −1.06% to $220.55 — into its own 4:05 p.m. print (§5). Home Depot (HD) −1.36% to $350.78, Broadcom (AVGO) −1.25% to $422.40, Boeing (BA) −0.70% to $232.79, Caterpillar (CAT) −0.55% to $837.58, Goldman Sachs (GS) −0.49% to $1,034.51, Visa (V) −0.33% to $361.32. |
| • Riot Platforms −5.46% after hours (not an S&P 500 constituent) — after Bloomberg reported a roughly $9bn deal with Anthropic, following Riot's own disclosure of a 20-year, 191-megawatt data-centre lease from its Rockdale campus to a "leading frontier AI" company. Riot had risen more than 12% in extended trading on the quarterly report before the Anthropic story reversed it — a rare instance of a large AI contract being read as a negative, and worth watching as a template. |
5 · S&P 500 Earnings Calendar — Current & Next Week (S&P 500 components only) |
| Times are ET. Every day page from Tuesday 8/11 through Friday 8/21 was pulled from Earnings Whispers this session (/1 = before open, /2 = after close) and screened against the Investing.com U.S.-500 constituent board. Re-verify times and membership against company IR before trading any date. |
|
| Date | S&P 500 reporters |
|---|
| Mon 8/10 — completed | BMO: Berkshire Hathaway B (BRK.B) 8:00 — closed +1.46% at $529.42; Class A shares +2.3% in morning trade.
AMC: Simon Property Group (SPG) 4:05 — closed −1.06% at $220.55 into the print. |
| Tue 8/11 | BMO: Cardinal Health (CAH) 6:45; Amentum (AMTM) 8:00.
AMC: Lumentum (LITE) 4:00; Super Micro Computer (SMCI) 4:05. |
| Wed 8/12 | BMO: Amcor (AMCR) 6:00; Trimble (TRMB) 6:55.
AMC: Cisco (CSCO) 4:05; Coherent (COHR) 4:05. |
| Thu 8/13 | BMO: Tapestry (TPR) 6:45.
AMC: Applied Materials (AMAT) 4:00. |
| Fri 8/14 | Neither page lists an S&P 500 reporter — the before-open page is entirely micro-cap and biotech, and none of the reviewed names is carried by the constituent board. |
|
| Next week (Aug 17–21) — thirteen S&P 500 reporters across four sessions |
|
| Date | S&P 500 reporters |
|---|
| Mon 8/17 | Neither page lists an S&P 500 reporter (nine names screened across both buckets). |
| Tue 8/18 | BMO: Home Depot (HD) 6:00.
AMC: Keysight Technologies (KEYS) 4:05; Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY) 4:15. |
| Wed 8/19 | BMO: Lowe's (LOW) 6:00; Estée Lauder (EL) 6:00; Target (TGT) 6:30; Analog Devices (ADI) 7:00; TJX Companies (TJX) 7:30.
AMC: Nordson (NDSN) 4:30. |
| Thu 8/20 | BMO: Deere & Company (DE) 6:20; Walmart (WMT) 7:00.
AMC: Ross Stores (ROST) 4:00. |
| Fri 8/21 | Neither page lists an S&P 500 reporter (three names screened). |
|
| Changes vs. the prior calendar (8/7 report) |
| • No additions and no removals for the current week. Every 8/11–8/14 name carried by the prior edition re-appeared with an identical timestamp: CAH 6:45, AMTM 8:00, LITE 4:00, SMCI 4:05, AMCR 6:00, TRMB 6:55, CSCO 4:05, COHR 4:05, TPR 6:45, AMAT 4:00. BRK.B 8:00 and SPG 4:05 both reported as scheduled, which retires the "confirm with Berkshire IR" flag the prior edition carried. |
| • Next week is the first full pull of the 8/17–8/21 pages and it is materially denser than the week it follows. Thirteen S&P 500 reporters against ten this week, and the composition changes completely: this week is technology and industrials; next week is the U.S. consumer. Home Depot, Lowe's, Target, TJX, Walmart and Ross Stores report inside four sessions, alongside Deere, Analog Devices, Keysight, Jack Henry, Nordson and Estée Lauder. |
| • Membership caveat, restated rather than buried: the constituent board used as this report's screening proxy does not carry Lumentum (LITE) or Coherent (COHR). Both have been carried by the prior three editions and are retained for continuity, but they remain the two least certain names in this week's list — confirm with company IR before trading either date. The same board does carry CAH, AMTM, SMCI, AMCR, TRMB, CSCO, TPR, AMAT, HD, KEYS, JKHY, LOW, EL, TGT, ADI, TJX, NDSN, DE, WMT and ROST. |
| • Toll Brothers (TOL) 4:30 on 8/18 is excluded because the screening board does not carry it; so are Coty (COTY) 4:30 on 8/19, Flowers Foods (FLO) 4:05 on 8/20, Advance Auto Parts (AAP) 6:30 on 8/20, BJ's Wholesale (BJ) 6:45 on 8/21 and Fabrinet (FN) 4:15 on 8/17. Toll Brothers is the most borderline of the six and is listed in the companion Data Notes with the others. |
| • Timing bucket still unpublished: none. Every name above carries a specific clock time. |
| • The forward calendar is the reason the next eight sessions are not a data vacuum. Applied Materials (8/13 AMC) is the single most important scheduled equity event in the window given §2 item 3 — the SOX closed on its low on Monday and Applied Materials fell 3.16% into a print three days away. Cisco (8/12 AMC) is the infrastructure read-across the security-software rotation in §3 now needs. And next week's retail block — Home Depot, Lowe's, Target, TJX, Walmart, Ross — concentrates six U.S. consumer reporters into three sessions, the densest consumer read of the quarter. |
6 · U.S. Treasury Yields — Official Par Curve (Treasury.gov, 3:30 PM ET) |
| Tenor | 10 Aug | 7 Aug | 1-day chg | 3 Aug | 1-week chg |
|---|
| 1 Mo | 3.79% | 3.79% | 0 bp | 3.79% | 0 bp |
| 1.5 Mo | 3.80% | 3.79% | +1 bp | 3.82% | −2 bp |
| 2 Mo | 3.84% | 3.83% | +1 bp | 3.87% | −3 bp |
| 3 Mo | 3.89% | 3.87% | +2 bp | 3.91% | −2 bp |
| 4 Mo | 3.91% | 3.89% | +2 bp | 3.94% | −3 bp |
| 6 Mo | 4.00% | 3.96% | +4 bp | 4.02% | −2 bp |
| 1 Yr | 4.04% | 4.01% | +3 bp | 4.07% | −3 bp |
| 2 Yr | 4.25% | 4.19% | +6 bp | 4.25% | 0 bp |
| 3 Yr | 4.31% | 4.25% | +6 bp | 4.32% | −1 bp |
| 5 Yr | 4.41% | 4.35% | +6 bp | 4.40% | +1 bp |
| 7 Yr | 4.56% | 4.49% | +7 bp | 4.54% | +2 bp |
| 10 Yr | 4.72% | 4.65% | +7 bp | 4.70% | +2 bp |
| 20 Yr | 5.25% | 5.20% | +5 bp | 5.23% | +2 bp |
| 30 Yr | 5.25% | 5.19% | +6 bp | 5.23% | +2 bp |
|
| Spread | 10 Aug | 7 Aug | 1-day | 3 Aug | 1-week |
|---|
| 2s10s | 47 bp | 46 bp | +1 bp | 45 bp | +2 bp |
| 3M10Y | 83 bp | 78 bp | +5 bp | 79 bp | +4 bp |
| 2s30s | 100 bp | 100 bp | 0 bp | 98 bp | +2 bp |
|
| Cross-checks. Bloomberg's board marked the U.S. 10-year at 4.71%, +6 bp, at 4:59 p.m. ET; WSJ's real-time page at 5:05 p.m. showed 10-year 4.713% (+6.2 bp), 30-year 5.254% (+5.1 bp), 7-year 4.560% (+6.3 bp), 5-year 4.413% (+5.7 bp), 3-year 4.313% (+4.7 bp), 2-year 4.243% (+3.7 bp). The one apparent disagreement is at the 2-year, where the official par curve shows +6 bp and WSJ +3.7 bp; that is a baseline artefact, not a level dispute — WSJ's change is struck off its own Friday real-time mark and Treasury's off Friday's 3:30 p.m. par fixing, and the two levels agree to within 0.7 bp (4.25% vs 4.243%). |
| The read — this is a belly-and-long-led bear-steepener with the bill anchored, and that combination is an inflation-premium repricing, not a policy-path repricing. The largest moves are at the 7- and 10-year (+7 bp each), then 2s/3s/5s and the 30-year (+6 bp), then the 20-year (+5 bp), and only +2 bp at the 3-month. The diagnostic is the gap between the belly and the bill: 3M10Y widened 5 bp to 83 bp while 2s30s did not move at all. If Monday had been about the Fed's reaction function, the 2-year would have led and the bill would have followed it; instead the 2-year moved 6 bp, the bill 2 bp, and the point of maximum sensitivity was seven years out — the tenor that prices the average of the next seven years of inflation rather than the next two meetings. Bloomberg named the mechanism in the wrap: "oil's four-day rally revived inflation concerns before key US consumer price data later this week." |
| Two further observations, both about what did not happen. First, this was a global move and the U.S. was not the leader. The UK gilt and the Canadian 10-year each rose 7 bp, France, Italy, Spain and Greece 6 bp, Germany 5 bp, Brazil 9 bp. A domestic supply story — the auction-cutback debate this report flagged on Friday — cannot move Milan and Toronto by the same amount on the same day. A crude shock can. Second, the whole of Friday's payroll rally is gone, and the erasure is uneven in an informative way. The 2-year is at 4.25%, exactly where it closed on 3 August; the 10-year at 4.72% is 2 bp above its 3 August close and 3 bp above where it sat on 6 August. The market has kept none of the front-end dovishness and has added term premium on top. That is the configuration in which a hot core CPI on Wednesday does the most damage, because the front end has already surrendered its cushion. The bill remains the outlier in the other direction: the 3-month is 2 bp lower on the week while the 10-year is 2 bp higher, so the financing signal documented in §9 is still running. |
7 · U.S. Macroeconomic Calendar |
| Source: New York Fed Economic Indicators Calendar, August 2026 (all times ET). Sensitivity is this report's own rating and is stated explicitly for every line, because the "Very high" tag is what drives the §1 tape rule. |
| Current week (Aug 10–14) |
| Date / Time | Release | Status | Sensitivity |
|---|
| Mon 8/10 | No U.S. release scheduled | Completed — the only blank weekday on the August calendar | — |
| Tue 8/11 10:00 | NAR Existing Home Sales | Pending | Medium — the mortgage rate is stuck near 6.76% (§9), so this is a rate-transmission read rather than a demand read |
| Tue 8/11 11:00 | NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel (Household Debt & Credit, Q2) | Pending | Low-to-Medium — quarterly; the delinquency detail matters more for §9 than for the tape |
| Wed 8/12 08:30 | Consumer Price Index (July) | Pending | VERY HIGH — the single most important scheduled event of the fortnight |
| Thu 8/13 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 8/8) | Pending | High — the highest-frequency labour read the market has |
| Thu 8/13 08:30 | Producer Price Index (July) | Pending | High — matters mostly for the PCE mapping the morning after |
| Thu 8/13 11:30 | NY Fed Weekly Economic Index | Pending | Low |
| Fri 8/14 08:30 | Advance Retail Sales (July) | Pending | High — the first read on whether a contracting labour market has reached the consumer |
| Fri 8/14 10:00 | Business Inventories | Pending | Low |
| Fri 8/14 10:00 | Michigan Consumer Survey (Preliminary, August) | Pending | Medium-to-High — the 5–10 year inflation expectation is the component that trades, and it trades more with crude up 5% |
| Fri 8/14 10:00 | Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q3) | Pending | Low |
| Fri 8/14 12:45 | NY Fed Staff Nowcast | Pending | Low |
|
| Next week (Aug 17–21) |
| Date / Time | Release | Sensitivity |
|---|
| Mon 8/17 08:30 | Empire State Manufacturing Survey (August) | Medium — the first survey to capture the crude move |
| Mon 8/17 11:00 | NY Fed SCE Labor Market Survey | Medium |
| Tue 8/18 08:30 | Business Leaders Survey | Low |
| Tue 8/18 08:30 | Imports and Exports (Prices) | Medium — import prices are a direct crude pass-through |
| Tue 8/18 08:30 | New Residential Construction (Housing Starts & Permits, July) | Medium-to-High |
| Tue 8/18 09:15 | Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (July) | Medium |
| Tue 8/18 10:00 | NAR Pending Home Sales Index | Low-to-Medium |
| Wed 8/19 10:00 | NY Fed Outlook-at-Risk | Low |
| Thu 8/20 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | High |
| Thu 8/20 08:30 | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (August) | Medium |
| Thu 8/20 10:00 | Reserve Demand Elasticity | Medium — a direct read on the reserve-scarcity question in §9(b), unusually relevant with ON RRP at a series low |
| Thu 8/20 11:30 | NY Fed Weekly Economic Index | Low |
| Fri 8/21 12:45 | NY Fed Staff Nowcast | Low |
|
| Look-ahead — the asymmetry, and the macro hooks in the order they can move the Fed card. The market has spent five sessions moving the September FOMC probability 23 points one way on a payroll and 7 points back on a crude rally, and it has done all of it without a single inflation datapoint. That ends at 8:30 on Wednesday, and the arithmetic in §8 is the reason it matters more than usual: one basis point of the September fed funds contract is worth roughly eight points of headline probability, because the meeting falls on the 16th and only half the contract month is affected. (1) July CPI, Wednesday 8:30 — the only "Very high" item in the fortnight. The relevant number is core month-on-month. A core print at or above +0.4% takes the September hike back through 60% on roughly 1.5 bp of contract price and drags the whole 2027 strip with it; a core print at or below +0.2% puts the hold back above 60%. The complication nobody can hedge cleanly is that July CPI predates the crude move entirely — WTI settled $78.18 on 7 August and $82.13 on 10 August — so a benign July print tells you nothing about August, and the market knows it. That is the specific reason a soft CPI is likely to produce a smaller rally than a hot CPI produces a selloff. (2) Initial claims and PPI, Thursday 8:30, ninety minutes apart. A claims print above 240,000 alongside a soft PPI is the only combination on the calendar that produces a genuine dovish repricing this week. (3) Retail sales and Michigan preliminary, Friday. Retail sales is the first read on whether a labour market that has stopped hiring has reached the consumer; the Michigan long-run inflation expectation is the series most directly exposed to a 5% one-day move in gasoline. (4) Next week's Reserve Demand Elasticity release, Thursday 8/20 at 10:00. Ordinarily a footnote; not this month. ON RRP printed $0.975bn on 10 August — the first sub-$1bn reading of the series and a new low — with reserves at $2.993tn and $150bn off the July peak. A reserve-demand estimate published into that configuration is a live input to the September quarter-end funding question, and it is the one scheduled release that could move the bill curve independently of the FOMC. The asymmetry in one sentence: the front end has already given back the entire payroll rally, so it enters CPI with no cushion, while the long end has added term premium on a crude shock that the July data cannot possibly contain — which means a hot print hits a market that is already short duration and a soft print hits one that has just stopped being long it. |
|
8 · Fed Funds Futures & Rate Path |
| Current target range: 3.50–3.75%. EFFR 3.63% (NY Fed, 7 August). |
| CME FedWatch — next meeting (16 September 2026), four-column headline |
| Provenance of every column, stated. CME published a complete numeric four-column table under the September chart on this pull, so all four columns are read live from CME rather than reconstructed. The table's own footnote reads "Data as of 10 Aug 2026 09:24:59 CT", and the page's related-futures block is stamped "Last Updated 10 Aug 2026 09:38:18 PM CT"; the historical columns are CME's own end-of-day settlement snapshots for the dates shown. |
| Target rate (bps) | NOW (10 Aug) | 1 DAY (7 Aug) | 1 WEEK (3 Aug) | 1 MONTH (10 Jul) |
|---|
| 350–375 (current — hold) | 48.8% | 55.6% | 32.8% | 30.4% |
| 375–400 (+25 bp) | 51.2% | 44.4% | 67.2% | 51.2% |
| 400–425 (+50 bp) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.4% |
|
| All four columns sum to exactly 100.0%. |
| Correction to the prior edition, disclosed rather than buried. The 7 August report published CME's September card as 57.0% hold / 43.0% hike, read live at approximately 6:15 p.m. ET on the Friday. CME's own settled 1-DAY column now shows 55.6% / 44.4% for 7 August. The prior edition's number was 1.4 points too dovish because a live read taken after 5:00 p.m. ET is indicative, not settled. The 12.0-point Friday swing reported in that edition was therefore closer to 10.6 points on a settled basis. Every historical comparison in this section uses CME's settled columns. |
| The CME-versus-Investing.com gap, reconciled and quantified |
| Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor, timestamped Aug 10, 2026 10:05 PM EDT, shows the September card at 50.9% hold / 49.1% hike against CME's 48.8% / 51.2% — a 2.1-point gap, and it is entirely a contract-price artefact. Work it through: Investing.com quotes the September contract at 96.305, an implied average September effective rate of 3.695%. With EFFR at 3.63% and the meeting on the 16th, 15 of September's 30 days carry the new rate, so a certain hike lifts the month's average by 0.25 × 15/30 = 12.5 bp and the implied hike probability is (3.695 − 3.630) / 0.125 = 52.0%. CME's 51.2% corresponds to a contract price of 96.306; Investing.com's own 49.1% corresponds to 96.3086. The entire 2.1-point disagreement is 0.26 of a basis point in the quoted contract. The amplifier is the mid-month meeting date: because only half the contract month is affected, one basis point of ZQU6 is worth about eight points of headline probability. That is the single most useful number in this section, and it is why a 2-point vendor gap and a 7-point daily "swing" can both be economically trivial. Use one vendor's columns consistently: CME's four-column table for the headline, Investing.com's cards for the per-meeting matrix. |
| (a) 2026 meeting distributions — Investing.com matrix, current / [prev day] / [prev week] |
| Meeting | Contract | 3.50–3.75 (hold) | 3.75–4.00 (+25) | 4.00–4.25 (+50) | 4.25–4.50 (+75) | Cum. ≥ +25 |
|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | 96.305 | 50.9% [56.6] [37.9] | 49.1% [43.4] [62.1] | 0.0% | 0.0% | 49.1% [43.4] [62.1] |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 96.235 | 35.7% [41.0] [26.6] | 49.7% [47.1] [54.9] | 14.7% [12.0] [18.6] | 0.0% | 64.4% [59.1] [73.5] |
| 9 Dec 2026 | 96.085 | 19.6% [23.2] [14.5] | 43.4% [44.4] [42.1] | 30.4% [27.2] [35.0] | 6.6% [5.2] [8.4] | 80.4% [76.8] [85.5] |
|
| Highlighted cell = modal range. Rows sum to 100.0% (September, December) and 100.1% (October). |
| The multi-day momentum read, which is the part a single day-on-day figure hides. Take the three sessions together and the shape is a V that has not fully closed. September's hold was 37.9% a week ago, 56.6% on Friday and 50.9% now — the payroll bought 18.7 points of dovishness and Monday's crude rally took back 5.7 of them, so 13.0 points of the move survives on the week. But the further out you look, the less of it survives: October's cumulative hike probability is 64.4% against 59.1% on Friday and 73.5% a week ago — 9.1 points net. December's is 80.4% against 76.8% and 85.5% — only 5.1 points net. The pattern is unambiguous: the payroll moved the front of the strip far more than the back, and the crude rally is unwinding it in the same proportion. Neither event changed what the market thinks the Fed does by December; both changed when it thinks the Fed does it. The one number that has not moved at all in either direction is the 2026 cut probability, which has printed 0.0% for the sixteenth consecutive session — a labour market that shed 23,000 jobs and a crude shock have both left it untouched, and that is the most crowded consensus in this report (§13). |
| (b) 2027 meeting path — modal range, cumulative above/below, and the contract prices that draw the terminal |
| Meeting | Contract | Implied avg | Modal range | Modal prob. | Cum. above | Cum. below |
|---|
| 27 Jan 2027 | 96.050 | 3.950% | 3.75–4.00 | 38.8% | 84.1% | 0.0% |
| 17 Mar 2027 | 95.980 | 4.020% | 4.00–4.25 | 34.4% | 88.0% | 0.0% |
| 28 Apr 2027 | 95.945 | 4.055% | 4.00–4.25 | 34.2% | 89.3% | 0.0% |
| 9 Jun 2027 | 95.905 | 4.095% | 4.00–4.25 | 33.9% | 90.2% | 0.0% |
| 28 Jul 2027 | 95.900 | 4.100% | 4.00–4.25 | 33.9% | 90.2% | 0.3%* |
| 15 Sep 2027 | 95.910 | 4.090% | 4.00–4.25 | 33.3% | 89.0% | 0.4% |
| 27 Oct 2027 | 95.915 | 4.085% | 4.00–4.25 | 32.0% | 87.6% | 1.4% |
| 8 Dec 2027 | 95.955 | 4.045% | 3.75–4.00 | 30.1% | 82.1% | 3.1% |
|
| * The 28 July 2027 card shows an em-dash in the current column for 3.25–3.50 with 0.3% the prior day; the cumulative-below figure for that row is therefore the prior-day value and is marked accordingly. |
| The terminal moved out and up. The strip's low price is now 95.900 at the 28 July 2027 meeting, an implied 4.100%, against a low implying 4.06% around June 2027 in the 7 August edition — the market added roughly 4 bp to the peak and pushed it a meeting later in a single session. The peak-to-December-2027 give-back is 5.5 bp (95.900 to 95.955), so the strip still prices a shallow easing cycle beginning in the fourth quarter of 2027 and nothing before it. The cumulative-below column is the honest measure of how little the market believes in cuts: it is exactly 0.0% at every 2026 meeting and at the first four meetings of 2027, and it does not exceed 1.4% until October 2027. |
| (c) Year-end probability ladders |
| Year-end 2026 (9 December 2026 meeting), from a 3.50–3.75% starting range: |
| Outcome | Range | Probability | [prev day] | [prev week] |
|---|
| −75 bp | 2.75–3.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| −50 bp | 3.00–3.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| −25 bp | 3.25–3.50 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hold | 3.50–3.75 | 19.6% | 23.2% | 14.5% |
| +25 bp | 3.75–4.00 | 43.4% | 44.4% | 42.1% |
| +50 bp | 4.00–4.25 | 30.4% | 27.2% | 35.0% |
| +75 bp | 4.25–4.50 | 6.6% | 5.2% | 8.4% |
| +100 bp and above | 4.50 and higher | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
|
| Year-end 2027 (8 December 2027 meeting): |
| Outcome | Range | Probability | [prev day] | [prev week] |
|---|
| −100 bp | 2.50–2.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| −75 bp | 2.75–3.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| −50 bp | 3.00–3.25 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| −25 bp | 3.25–3.50 | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% |
| Hold | 3.50–3.75 | 14.8% | 17.8% | 13.5% |
| +25 bp | 3.75–4.00 | 30.1% | 32.0% | 29.3% |
| +50 bp | 4.00–4.25 | 30.0% | 28.3% | 31.1% |
| +75 bp | 4.25–4.50 | 16.2% | 13.4% | 17.2% |
| +100 bp | 4.50–4.75 | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% |
| +125 bp | 4.75–5.00 | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| +150 bp | 5.00–5.25 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| +175 bp | 5.25–5.50 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
|
| Rounding, stated transparently. The September, December-2026 and December-2027 current columns sum to exactly 100.0%; October 2026 sums to 100.1%; the January-2027 prev-day column sums to 100.1%; the March and April 2027 current columns sum to 99.9%; the December-2027 prev-day column sums to 99.8% and its prev-week column to 100.2%. These are vendor rounding artefacts at one decimal place and no cell has been adjusted. The end-2027 cut tail fell from 4.3% to 3.1% in a single session — the crude rally removed more than a quarter of the market's entire 2027 easing probability, which is a larger proportional move than anything that happened at the front of the strip. |
9 · Credit & Funding |
| (a) IG and HY credit spreads |
| FRED publishes the ICE BofA OAS series with a one-business-day lag. The table below is as of Friday 7 August 2026 — it is not a same-day mark, and Monday's direction is addressed beneath it from cash-market and index evidence. |
| Series | Level (7 Aug) | 1-day | 1-week | YTD | Basis |
|---|
| IG — ICE BofA US Corporate OAS (BAMLC0A0CM) | 78 bp | 0 bp | −1 bp | −1 bp | vs. 78 bp on 6 Aug, 79 bp on 31 Jul, 79 bp on 31 Dec 2025 |
| HY — ICE BofA US High Yield OAS (BAMLH0A0HYM2) | 270 bp | −1 bp | −15 bp | −11 bp | vs. 271 bp on 6 Aug, 285 bp on 31 Jul, 281 bp on 31 Dec 2025. The tightest print of 2026 |
| CCC & lower OAS (BAMLH0A3HYC) | 1,013 bp | −4 bp | −21 bp | +128 bp | vs. 1,017 bp on 6 Aug, 1,034 bp on 31 Jul, 885 bp on 31 Dec 2025 |
| CDX IG 5y | see retrieval note | — | — | — | — |
| CDX HY 5y | see retrieval note | — | — | — | — |
| Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate (LBUSTRUU) | 2,338.64 | +7.98 | MTD +0.26% | 52-wk +2.27% | Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices board |
| Bloomberg Global Aggregate (LEGATRUU) | 499.50 | +1.38 | MTD +0.39% | 52-wk +1.01% | Same board |
| Bloomberg EM USD Aggregate (EMUSTRUU) | 1,405.94 | +1.61 | MTD +0.68% | 52-wk +5.52% | The best MTD return of the five aggregates — EM dollar credit is outperforming U.S. IG in a rising-yield month |
|
| CDX retrieval note — the six-step ladder was worked again and the level remains publicly unobtainable. (1) Bloomberg in Chrome: /markets/rates-bonds publishes the Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices (quoted above) and a full sovereign 10-year grid, but no CDX quote; Monday's Markets Wrap carried no credit-index level. (2) WSJ Market Data Bonds & Rates: Treasurys, money rates, consumer rates and a sovereign grid, no CDX. (3) ICE / S&P Global index pages: the CDX North America family and Markit CDX.NA.IG product pages are public but the levels sit behind entitlement. (4) FT Markets Data / Reuters credit wraps: no CDX level in the reviewed 10 August material. (5) TradingView / Barchart / CME CDS index product pages: the symbols are carried but the prices are masked. (6) Cash-market proxies, labelled as such: the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate rose 7.98 points on the session even as Treasury yields rose 6–7 bp across the curve, which is not consistent with a duration-driven move and is therefore a spread-tightening read. All six steps are named so the gap is auditable rather than asserted. Quoting convention reminder: CDX IG 5y is quoted in basis points of spread and CDX HY 5y in price points, where a rising price means tightening credit spreads. |
| The direction cross-check. The IG credit spread at 78 bp is 1 bp inside where it started the year; the HY credit spread at 270 bp is 11 bp inside its 31 December level, 15 bp tighter on the week and at its tightest print of 2026. The CCC credit spread at 1,013 bp tightened 4 bp on 7 August and 21 bp on the week — the first weekly tightening in the tail in over a month — but it remains 128 bp wider year to date. The CCC-minus-HY differential is 743 bp against 604 bp at the start of the year; it has now narrowed for three consecutive sessions (from 763 bp on 31 July), and three sessions is no longer one datapoint. That is the first genuine crack in this report's longest-standing structural view and it is marked as such in §12 idea 6. What has not changed is the level: 743 bp of extra compensation for the bottom of the capital structure against a HY index at its 2026 tights is still the widest quality dispersion in the observable credit market. |
| (b) Money-market and funding plumbing |
| NY Fed publishes reference rates at ~8:00 a.m. ET for the prior business day; SOFR and EFFR below are as of Friday 7 August 2026. ON RRP is same-day (10 August). |
| Metric | Latest (7 Aug) | Prior (6 Aug) | Note |
|---|
| SOFR | 3.62% | 3.65% | −3 bp — the largest single-day fall in a month and the lowest print since 22 July |
| SOFR volume | $2,977bn | $3,055bn | −$78bn, back below $3tn |
| SOFR 1st percentile | 3.59% | 3.61% | −2 bp |
| SOFR 25th / 75th percentile | 3.60% / 3.68% | 3.63% / 3.70% | −3 bp and −2 bp — the whole distribution shifted down, not just the mean |
| SOFR 99th percentile | 3.71% | 3.73% | −2 bp |
| EFFR | 3.63% | 3.63% | Unchanged for an eleventh consecutive session |
| EFFR volume | $117bn | $113bn | +$4bn |
| EFFR 1st / 99th percentile | 3.60% / 3.65% | 3.60% / 3.65% | Unchanged; the unsecured distribution is inert |
| IORB | 3.65% | 3.65% | — |
| SOFR − IORB | −3 bp | 0 bp | Secured funding moved 3 bp below the administered floor — the widest negative gap in a month |
| SOFR − EFFR | −1 bp | +2 bp | Secured is now cheaper than unsecured, a 3 bp swing in one session |
| ON RRP take-up (RRPONTSYD) | $0.975bn (10 Aug) | $1.450bn (7 Aug) | The first sub-$1bn print in the series' history and a new record low |
| Reserve balances (WRESBAL, week avg) | $2.993tn (w/e 5 Aug) | $2.985tn (w/e 29 Jul) | +$8bn; no new weekly print since the prior edition. Still −$150bn from the $3.143tn peak of w/e 15 July |
| Standing Repo Facility | No usage reported in the reviewed NY Fed material | — | — |
| Fed funds target range | 3.50–3.75% | 3.50–3.75% | Unchanged all year |
| WSJ prime rate | 6.75% | 6.75% | — |
|
| Read the two halves against each other, because they say opposite things. The first half is benign and even easy: SOFR fell 3 bp to 3.62%, the 1st, 25th, 75th and 99th percentiles all fell with it, and the whole secured distribution moved down as a block. A distribution that translates rather than widens is a supply-of-cash effect, not a stress effect, and SOFR at 3 bp below IORB is the softest secured funding of the month. The second half is the part to watch: ON RRP printed $0.975bn on 10 August, the first sub-$1bn reading the series has ever produced. The facility is now, to a rounding error, empty. Those two observations are not contradictory, they are sequential — the cash that used to sit at the RRP has moved into bills and repo, which is why secured funding is soft and why the 3-month bill is 2 bp lower on the week while the 10-year is 2 bp higher (§6). The uncomfortable implication is that the buffer is gone: with the RRP at zero and reserves $150bn below the July peak, the next episode of funding pressure has no shock absorber between it and the reserve balance itself. Nothing about Monday was stressful; everything about Monday made the September quarter-end more binary. The one scheduled release that speaks directly to this is the NY Fed's Reserve Demand Elasticity print on 20 August (§7). |
| (c) Rates volatility and swap spreads |
| Metric | Level | Change | Vintage |
|---|
| MOVE index | 75.46 | +4.76% (from a 72.03 intraday open); −6.24% on the week; +8.50% on the month; −4.72% on the year | Investing.com delayed series, stamped 01:00:00. The card's "Prev. Close" field of 95.74 is again internally inconsistent with an intraday range of 72.03–75.46 and is withheld |
| VIX | 15.46 | +3.76% (range 15.10–15.72, board stamped 16:14) | 10 Aug 2026 close |
| MOVE / VIX | 4.88× | vs. 5.11× in the prior edition | Both series moved up; rates vol moved up more slowly than equity vol, so the ratio compressed |
| 2y / 10y / 30y swap spreads | No reliable data available at this time | — | Neither Bloomberg's public rates page, WSJ Market Data nor the reviewed vendor boards published a swap-spread series for 10 August |
|
| The two volatility markets finally moved together, and the direction is the news. MOVE +4.76% and VIX +3.76% is the first session in five in which both rose, and it happened on a day the S&P moved 0.06%. Realised equity volatility was almost nil and implied volatility rose anyway — the option market is paying up for Wednesday, not for Monday. The ratio at 4.88× is the lowest of the fortnight, but read it carefully: it compressed because equity vol rose from a lower base, not because rates vol fell. The honest gap in this table remains swap spreads, and it matters more than usual this week — a term-premium argument (§6) and a reserve-scarcity argument (§9b) are exactly the two forces that show up first in the 30-year swap spread, and this report cannot source it. |
| (d) Issuance, leveraged loans and private credit |
| • The credit event of the session was a $15bn equity raise, not a bond deal. Intel announced a $15bn common stock offering for "general corporate purposes… including capital expenditures and working capital," saying customers "continue to signal a strong and sustainable demand environment." A semiconductor manufacturer funding AI capex with equity rather than debt, in a month when IG primary is on pace to challenge all-time records, is a deliberate choice about balance-sheet capacity — and the equity market charged it 4.06% for the privilege. Equity funding at this scale caps how much of the AI build-out ends up in the IG index, which is bullish for IG credit spreads and bearish for the equity holders who absorb it. |
| • The AI-infrastructure financing chain produced its own tell after the close. Riot Platforms disclosed a 20-year lease supplying 191 megawatts from its Rockdale campus to a "leading frontier AI" company, and Bloomberg reported the counterparty is Anthropic in a deal worth roughly $9bn. Riot's shares rose more than 12% in extended trading on the quarterly report and then fell 5.46%. A twenty-year, single-counterparty, multi-billion-dollar contract being marked down rather than up is a statement about concentration risk in data-centre project finance, and it belongs on the private-credit watch list precisely because the financing for these campuses does not sit in any public index. |
| • The oil supermajors' cash position reframes the energy-credit question. Exxon, Chevron, BP, Shell and TotalEnergies generated $48bn of second-quarter profit and nearly $90bn of cash — an all-time high, above even the post-invasion quarters of 2022. With crude up 5% on the day and the sector +33.23% YTD, energy is the one large IG cohort whose credit metrics are improving faster than the index; that is a compression trade inside IG rather than a directional one. |
| • The M&A calendar re-opened at the top of the market. Blackstone Infrastructure's Safe Harbor Marinas agreed to buy MarineMax at $53.00 a share in cash ($1.5bn); Teledyne agreed to buy Varex Imaging at $18.90 a share in cash. Two all-cash strategic deals announced on the same Monday, both at large premia, is a financing-conditions signal — sponsors and strategics are transacting into 78 bp IG credit spreads. |
| • The forced-deal risk is the other side of it: a Delaware judge ruled Verisk must complete its $2.35bn acquisition of AccuLynx, a transaction Verisk terminated in December. Verisk fell 5.55%, the worst name in the index. Specific-performance rulings are a real and under-priced balance-sheet risk in a market where a third of announced deals carry regulatory-timing outs. |
| • Morningstar LSTA leveraged loan index and bank CDS: not obtainable this session. Sources attempted and named so the gap is auditable: Bloomberg /markets and /markets/rates-bonds, the Bloomberg Markets Wrap for 10 August, WSJ Market Data Bonds & Rates, and the Investing.com and TradingEconomics boards. None published a loan-index level or a bank CDS quote for 10 August. The Finviz Financial group at +0.11% on a 7 bp bear-steepening day is the only bank-risk proxy this report can source tonight, and it is an equity proxy, not a credit one. |
| Take — the credit-spread-versus-equity-vol divergence, and what would break it. The divergence widened again, and for the first time this month it widened for a reason that has nothing to do with the Fed. The IG credit spread is 78 bp, 1 bp inside January. The HY credit spread is 270 bp, the tightest print of 2026. The VIX is 15.46, having risen 3.76% on a 0.06% index day. And the 10-year is 4.72%, 7 bp higher, with every G7 sovereign moving with it. The configuration this report has flagged for three weeks — tight credit spreads against a rising long end and a low VIX — is now in its most extreme form of the cycle, and Monday added the missing ingredient: an inflation shock with a physical cause. Here is why that matters more than a Fed shock would. A policy-driven selloff hurts credit through the discount rate, and IG credit at 78 bp can absorb 7 bp of Treasury yield without blinking — Monday proved it, because the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate rose on the day. A crude-driven selloff hurts credit through the cash-flow statement, and it does so unevenly: it is a windfall for the energy issuers whose $90bn quarterly cash generation just set a record, and a margin compression for every transport, chemical, retail and airline issuer that buys the barrel. The equity market priced that split immediately — Energy +3.60% against airlines and cruise lines −3.6% to −4.6% — and the credit market has not priced it at all, because a one-business-day-lagged OAS series cannot. What would break the divergence, in order of probability. (1) A July core CPI at or above +0.4% on Wednesday, which forces the first genuine test of whether 78 bp of IG compensation survives a term-premium repricing rather than a policy repricing. (2) A second week of crude above $82, which starts appearing in third-quarter guidance for the transport and chemical cohorts before it appears in any spread series. (3) A funding accident at the September quarter-end, now materially more likely because ON RRP printed $0.975bn — the first sub-$1bn reading ever — leaving no buffer between a reserve shock and the reserve balance itself. What would not break it: another 7 bp on the 10-year. The market has just demonstrated it can take that. |
|
10 · FX — Levels and Moves (TradingEconomics board; spot) |
| Quote basis — read this before the table. All pairs are spot in the market convention shown; a positive move on a USD/XXX pair means the dollar strengthened, and on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD it means the dollar weakened. The pull landed at approximately 22:42 ET on the 10th — after TradingEconomics' daily boundary rolled: every row carries an "Aug/11" or intraday stamp and the vendor's own %Chg column measures only the few hours of the new session, printing between −0.11% and +0.05% for the entire board. That column is therefore NOT reproduced. The "24h" column below is computed by this report against the same vendor's levels published in the 7 August edition, with worked examples in the companion Data Notes. Residual imperfection stated honestly: the prior pull was at roughly 22:30 GMT and this one at 02:42 GMT, so the comparison spans about 28 hours rather than 24. |
| Pair | Level | 24h move | Cross-check | Note |
|---|
| DXY | 99.811 | +0.21% | Bloomberg Euro 1.15, Pound/Dollar 1.35 | The dollar strengthened on a day U.S. yields rose 7 bp — the orthodox pairing, and the exact reverse of Friday |
| EUR/USD | 1.15415 | −0.15% | 1.15 (Bloomberg) | The single largest G10 contributor to the dollar's gain |
| USD/JPY | 159.276 | +1.03% | — | The largest move on the board by a factor of two and a half. The pair traded 163 pre-intervention, 155 immediately after 31 July, 157.65 on Friday. The intervention is now fully unwound bar 3.7 yen |
| GBP/USD | 1.35072 | +0.11% | 1.35 (Bloomberg) | Sterling ROSE against a rising dollar on a day the 10-year gilt sold off 7 bp — the one G10 currency that traded its own yield rather than the dollar |
| USD/CHF | 0.81029 | +0.39% | — | The franc was the second-weakest G10 currency on a day equities fell and crude spiked — the haven that would not bid |
| AUD/USD | 0.70565 | −0.08% | — | Barely moved on a day copper rose 0.99% — the fifth consecutive session the Aussie has ignored the metal |
| NZD/USD | 0.58849 | +0.13% | — | Rose against a stronger dollar; the kiwi and sterling were the only two G10 gainers |
| USD/CAD | 1.39350 | +0.04% | — | Effectively unchanged on a 5.05% WTI move. The loonie has now failed to trade crude in five of the last six sessions |
| USD/CNY | 6.74518 | +0.05% | — | Inert again, with the CSI 300 +0.30% |
| USD/KRW | 1,416.35 | +0.66% | — | The won weakened on the day the Kosdaq rose 7% — the domestic-leverage tell this report has flagged three times |
| USD/SGD | 1.28037 | +0.19% | — | — |
| USD/INR | 95.3810 | +0.27% | — | Still the worst major Asian currency of 2026, +6.13% YTD on the vendor's own column |
| USD/MXN | 17.1375 | +0.20% | — | The peso gave back part of a run that is −4.89% YTD |
| USD/ZAR | 16.1898 | +0.34% | — | The rand weakened on a day gold rose — Friday's mechanism ran in reverse here too |
| USD/TWD | No reliable data available at this time | — | — | The board did not carry a Taiwan dollar row on this pull |
|
| The take — one orthodox session, two havens that refused to behave, and a yen that has erased an intervention. The orthodox part first: the dollar rose against eleven of the thirteen crosses on the board on a day U.S. 10-year yields rose 7 bp, and the size of each move scaled roughly with the currency's rate sensitivity. That is the textbook pairing and it is the exact reverse of Friday, when a 6 bp fall in the 2-year sold the dollar against everything. Two sessions, two opposite rate moves, two correctly-signed dollar responses: the dollar is currently a pure rates instrument, with no risk-premium component at all. |
| The first contradiction is the franc. USD/CHF +0.39% makes the franc the second-weakest G10 currency on a session with a falling equity market, a 3.76% VIX rise, an oil shock and a hardening Iranian negotiating position. A haven that weakens into a Middle East escalation is not behaving as a haven; it is behaving as a low-yielder in a rising-rate world. Set it beside gold, which rose on the same session (§11): the market bought the commodity hedge and sold the currency hedge, which says the perceived risk is inflation rather than geopolitical tail. That is a tradable distinction and it is the single most useful piece of information in this section. |
| The second contradiction is the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD moved 0.04% on a day WTI settled +5.05%. The loonie has now failed to trade crude in five of the last six sessions, including a 7% weekly decline and a 5% single-day rally. The petro-currency correlation is not weak; it is absent. The mechanism is that the Bank of Canada's own 10-year rose 7 bp alongside the U.S., so the rate differential did not move, and with the differential pinned the currency has nothing left to express. Anyone using CAD as a crude proxy has been running an unhedged rates position for a week. And the yen. USD/JPY at 159.276, +1.03% in 24 hours, is the largest single move on the board and the most consequential. The 31 July joint U.S.–Japan intervention took the pair from 163 to 155. It is now 159.28 — 4.3 of the 8 yen given back, and 3.7 yen from the pre-intervention level. Japanese cash markets were closed on Tuesday for a public holiday, so there is neither a JGB bid nor a domestic equity signal to test it against, and the U.S. 10-year has just widened the differential by 7 bp. The practical point for the credit section: the Japanese insurer bid that §9 identifies as a marginal source of demand for U.S. IG credit is levered to the yen's level, and every yen of depreciation raises the hedged-yield hurdle for that buyer. |
11 · Commodities |
| Basis note, stated first. All futures rows below are settlements for 10 August, derived from the Investing.com real-time futures board pulled at 22:32–22:33 ET (last price minus the board's own change column), with the contract month shown. The derivation was checked against two independent sources: WTI September derives to $82.13 and Brent October to $87.72, matching the published settlements of +5.1% to $82.13 and +5.0% to $87.72 exactly. Percentage changes are struck against the 7 August settlements published in the prior edition, so the basis is consistent front-month-to-front-month. |
| Contract / Instrument | 10 Aug settle | 1-day | Driver |
|---|
| WTI crude (Sep) | $82.13 | +5.05% | A fourth consecutive advance and the largest one-day gain since the Hormuz closure. Araghchi: Tehran is not in direct talks and reopening requires the U.S. to end its shipping blockade and pay compensation |
| Brent crude (Oct) | $87.72 | +4.99% | Westpac: "The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed" as the war enters month six; CENTCOM: 55 vessels redirected, 2 disabled, 2 boarded as of 9 August |
| Heating oil (Sep) | $4.1646/gal | +7.28% | The best performer on the entire commodity board — distillate is where the transit disruption bites hardest |
| RBOB gasoline (Sep) | $3.1354/gal | +5.89% | Outran crude by 84 bp; the 3-2-1 crack widened materially |
| Natural gas (Henry Hub, Sep) | $2.780/MMBtu | +4.08% | Followed the complex; still the worst major commodity of 2026 |
| Silver (Sep) | $65.272/oz | +2.23% | The best metal on the board and a fresh seven-week high; the vendor's spot series marks $65.892 on its 11 Aug stamp |
| Copper (Sep) | $6.6358/lb | +0.99% | Reversed Friday's −1.73% almost exactly. The non-participant participated |
| Gold (Comex Dec) | $4,419.70/oz | +0.42% | Spot ~$4,378.76, +0.81% on TradingEconomics' dated series. Bloomberg: "Gold Climbs Above $4,400 as Traders Turn Focus to US Inflation" |
| Platinum (Oct) | $1,763.95/oz | +0.37% | The laggard of the precious complex |
| Palladium (Sep) | $1,387.50/oz | +0.33% | — |
| Dutch TTF gas (Sep) | €61.755/MWh (live, 22:07 ET) | — | Up sharply from €54.56 on 7 August; the European gas curve is repricing the same transit risk |
|
| Withheld figures, with the reason stated in-line. The TradingEconomics %Chg, Weekly and Monthly columns are not reproduced anywhere in this table: the board had rolled to an 11 August stamp and its %Chg column measured only a few hours of Tuesday-Asia trade. The vendor's YTD column is reproduced only in prose and only where the level agrees with the settlement derivation — crude YTD +43.14%, Brent +44.17%, gasoline +83.02%, gold +2.23%, silver −7.58%, copper +16.70%, natural gas −24.81%, platinum −14.58%, palladium −15.77% — and note that TradingEconomics' crude level of $82.202 now agrees with the derived settlement of $82.13 to within 0.09%, comfortably inside this report's ~1% tolerance and a marked improvement on the 1.4% divergence that forced a withholding on 7 August. |
| The take — a product-led energy shock, a metals complex that finally moved as a bloc, and a gold bid that changed its reason. Positioning first, on energy. The order of the move is the whole diagnostic: heating oil +7.28%, gasoline +5.89%, crude +5.05%, Brent +4.99%. Products outran the barrel by 84 bp to 223 bp, which means the market is pricing a logistics disruption rather than a reserve disruption. Crude can be re-routed at a cost; refined product cannot be re-routed at all if the refineries and the shipping are on the wrong side of the strait, and CENTCOM's own tally of 55 redirected vessels is a logistics number, not a barrels number. The trade that expresses this is the crack, not the flat price, and the equity translation is the refiners: Marathon Petroleum +7.42%, Phillips 66 +5.69% and Valero +5.58% all beat Exxon's +4.41% (§4). The positioning risk is symmetric and violent: the same reopening deal that has been "expected soon" for a week would compress the crack faster than it compresses the barrel, because the logistics premium unwinds instantly and the supply premium unwinds gradually. |
| On metals, the whole complex moved together for the first time in a fortnight, and that is the change. Silver +2.23%, copper +0.99%, gold +0.42% on the futures basis and +0.81% on spot, platinum +0.37%, palladium +0.33%. Compare with Friday: gold +2.44%, silver +3.36%, platinum +1.12%, palladium +0.40% — and copper −1.73%. The industrial metal rejoining the precious metals on a session when the real yield rose 7 bp is not a real-rate trade; it is an inflation trade, and it is the second independent piece of evidence for that reading after the franc's failure to bid (§10). The gold-silver ratio compressed again — silver has now outrun gold on four of the last five sessions — and a compressing ratio with copper participating is the industrial-inflation configuration rather than the safe-haven one. |
| The basis caveats, explicitly. Gold is quoted on two bases here and they differ by roughly $41, or 0.94%: the Comex December futures settlement of $4,419.70 and the spot mark of ~$4,378.76. That gap is carry — four months of financing at roughly 3.6% on a $4,380 metal is approximately $53 annualised, so a $41 December basis is consistent with the curve and is not a data conflict. Silver is quoted on the September contract; the spot series on the same vendor marks $65.892 against the derived $65.272 settlement, a 0.95% gap that is the same carry effect at the front of a steeper curve. Copper is the September Comex contract in USD/lb; the LME three-month grade-A contract on the same board marks $14,182/t, a different instrument on a different exchange, and the two should not be compared directly. Dutch TTF is quoted live rather than at settlement because the European session had closed hours before this pull; the €61.755 mark is stamped 22:07 ET and is directional only. |
12 · Trading Views |
| Desk-style ideas for institutional investors. Each carries an explicit catalyst and an explicit invalidation. These are not personalized investment advice; verify independently and size to your own mandate before acting. |
| 1. The rates trade — stay long the back of the fed funds strip against the front, but mark the loss first |
| Honest mark on the prior edition's rates idea. Friday's book was long ZQZ7 against short ZQU6, DV01-matched one-for-one. It lost money on Monday, and more than it made on Friday. ZQZ7 fell from 96.000 to 95.955 (−4.5 bp) while ZQU6 fell only from 96.315 to 96.305 (−1.0 bp), so the DV01-matched spread lost 3.5 bp on the session and is now approximately 2.0 bp offside since inception. The stated invalidation — July core CPI at or above +0.4% m/m, or a September hold probability above 70% — has not been triggered; the hold went the other way, to 48.8% on CME. So the position stands, but it stands on a thesis that a crude shock has already partly falsified: the trade was a fade of the 2027 terminal re-rating, and the terminal has re-rated upward from 4.06% to 4.100% and moved a meeting later (§8b). That is the position being wrong about the thing it was designed to be right about, and it should be acknowledged as such rather than re-labelled. |
| Modal path, base case and tails, which is what the trade expresses. Modal path: no hike on 16 September on Investing.com's card (50.9% hold) but a hike on CME's (51.2%) — the two vendors straddle the coin-flip and the gap between them is 0.26 bp of contract price (§8). One 25 bp hike delivered in 2026, with December carrying an 80.4% cumulative probability against October's 64.4%; year-end 2026 modal at 3.75–4.00% (43.4%); terminal 4.100% around July 2027; year-end 2027 modal 3.75–4.00% (30.1%) with 4.00–4.25% one tenth of a point behind at 30.0%. Base case: an economy that has stopped hiring and is now absorbing a 5% crude shock, which is precisely the stagflationary mix that keeps a central bank on hold for longer than either tail implies. Hawkish tail: core CPI at or above +0.4% m/m Wednesday, worth roughly 1.5 bp on ZQU6 and therefore about 12 points of September probability, and it drags the whole 2027 strip. Dovish tail: claims above 240,000 on 8/13 with a soft PPI, which would produce the first non-zero 2026 cut probability of the year — currently 0.0% for a sixteenth consecutive session. |
| Expression, unchanged but resized: long ZQZ7 against short ZQU6, DV01-matched one-for-one (both legs 30-day fed funds futures, DV01 $41.67 per basis point per contract), carried at two-thirds of the prior size. Rationale for holding rather than cutting: ZQU6 at 96.305 now has roughly 6.5 bp of upside to a certain hold and 6.0 bp of downside to a certain hike — the short leg is close to symmetric, which is a worse place to be short than Friday's bounded 5.5/6.2, but the long leg's 2027 easing optionality is now cheaper by 4.5 bp. Catalyst: CPI 8/12 at 8:30; PPI and claims 8/13; retail sales 8/14. Invalidation, tightened: July core CPI at or above +0.4% m/m; or the 28 July 2027 contract trading below 95.850, which would say the terminal re-rating is a trend rather than a crude artefact. Sizing: small; size on the roughly 6 bp of maximum adverse move in the front leg, and note the spread's carry is slightly negative. |
| 2. Own the crack, not the barrel — long refiners against short crude |
| Expression: long a basket of Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66 and Valero against a short in September WTI, sized so the futures leg matches the basket's crude beta. Thesis: Monday's move was product-led — heating oil +7.28% and gasoline +5.89% against crude +5.05% — and the equity confirmed it, with the three refiners at +7.42%, +5.69% and +5.58% against Exxon's +4.41% (§11). CENTCOM's 55 redirected vessels is a logistics number; a logistics disruption widens cracks and a supply disruption widens flat price, and the market has been pricing the second while the evidence supports the first. Catalyst: the EIA weekly on 8/12 — distillate inventories are the direct test. Invalidation: a confirmed Hormuz reopening announcement, which compresses the crack faster than the barrel and loses on both legs; or a distillate build above 3m barrels, which says the logistics premium is imagined. Sizing: medium. This idea replaces the 7 August "long integrated energy equity against short crude" trade, which was the wrong way round on Monday: the equity basket rose about 4.5% and the short crude leg lost 5.05%, for a loss of roughly half a point. |
| 3. Short the crude-consumer complex against the index |
| Expression: short a basket of Southwest, United, Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian against long S&P 500 futures, beta-adjusted. Thesis: five of the fifteen worst S&P 500 names on Monday were airlines or cruise lines, at −3.64% to −4.57%, on a day the index fell 0.06% (§2 item 6). These are the only large-cap cohorts whose single largest variable cost is the exact product that rose 7.28%, and unlike the chemical and transport issuers they have no offsetting revenue leg and no meaningful hedging disclosure ahead of the next reporting cycle. Catalyst: a second consecutive week of crude above $82; Michigan preliminary on 8/14, where the gasoline-driven inflation-expectation component feeds the same demand story. Invalidation: WTI closing below $78.18, Friday's settlement, which would mean the entire Hormuz repricing has unwound. Sizing: medium, and note this is the highest-beta expression in this report — it is short a 5% commodity move with equity convexity. |
| 4. Buy the semiconductor capitulation shape, selectively, into Applied Materials |
| Expression: long a small basket of Applied Materials, KLA and Lam Research against short the broader SOX exposure, or as a defined-risk long-call structure into 8/13. Thesis: the SOX opened at 12,424.7 and closed at 11,993.9, one tenth of a point off the session low — a 3.53% high-to-close fade and the worst intraday shape of the month. A close on the low is a distribution shape, but it is also an exhaustion shape when the catalyst is a competitor's equity raise rather than a demand datapoint — Intel's $15bn offering is dilutive to Intel and neutral-to-positive for the equipment vendors who will be paid out of it. Applied Materials fell 3.16% into a print three days away. Catalyst: Applied Materials, 8/13 after the close — the only capital-equipment read in the window (§5). Invalidation: the SOX closing below 11,900, which would break the low and turn the fade into a trend; or Lumentum's 8/11 print guiding photonics demand lower, which would confirm the AI-infrastructure de-rating is fundamental. Sizing: small, and defined-risk — this is a counter-trend idea against a close on the low. |
| 5. Long gold against the Swiss franc |
| Expression: long spot gold funded in CHF, or long gold against a short CHF/USD position, notional-matched. Thesis: Monday separated the two classic havens for the first time this cycle — gold rose 0.42% on futures and 0.81% on spot while the franc weakened 0.39% against a rising dollar, on a session with an oil shock, a hardening Iranian position, a 3.76% VIX rise and a falling equity market (§10, §11). The market bought the commodity hedge and sold the currency hedge, which says the perceived risk is inflation, not geopolitical tail — and if that reading is right the divergence should persist, because a low-yielding currency is the worst thing to own in an inflation-premium repricing and a non-yielding real asset is among the best. Catalyst: CPI 8/12, the direct test. Invalidation: the franc strengthening more than 1% against the dollar in a session where gold is flat or lower, which would mean the haven bid has reverted to the currency; or gold breaking below $4,300 spot. Sizing: medium. |
| 6. Keep buying protection on the CCC cohort funded in IG — but at reduced size, because the thesis has cracked |
| Expression: long CCC-exposed credit protection (or short a levered-loan/CCC-heavy vehicle) against long IG cash. Thesis: the CCC credit spread at 1,013 bp is still 128 bp wider year to date while the IG credit spread is 1 bp tighter and the HY credit spread is at its tightest print of 2026; the CCC-minus-HY differential at 743 bp against 604 bp in January remains the only series that has tracked the funding cycle all year (§9). The crack, stated plainly: that differential has now narrowed for three consecutive sessions, from 763 bp on 31 July to 743 bp, and CCC tightened 21 bp on the week against HY's 15 bp. Three sessions is not one datapoint, and this report has said for a fortnight that three consecutive sessions of tail outperformance would be the thing that starts a turn. The idea is therefore cut to half its prior size rather than carried at unchanged size, and it will be cut again if the differential breaks 730 bp. Catalyst: CPI 8/12; the September quarter-end funding test, now more binary with ON RRP at $0.975bn. Invalidation: the CCC-minus-HY differential through 730 bp. Sizing: small-to-medium, halved from the prior edition. |
| Volatility note |
| VIX 15.46 (+3.76%), range 15.10–15.72 — the first advance in five sessions, and it came on a 0.06% index move; MOVE 75.46 (+4.76%) on the Investing.com delayed series; the ratio at 4.88× is the fortnight's low and it compressed because equity vol rose from a lower base, not because rates vol fell (§9c). At 15.46, one-month S&P implied volatility prices a daily move of roughly 0.97%. Realised over the last three sessions has been +0.62%, −0.06% and, before that, −0.18% — so implied is still comfortably above realised and the short-vol trade has kept working. What changed on Monday is the shape of the demand: implied volatility rose on a day nothing happened at the index level, which means the bid is for Wednesday. The specific asymmetry to price: §8 shows one basis point of the September contract is worth about eight points of headline probability, and §7 explains why a soft CPI is likely to produce a smaller rally than a hot CPI produces a selloff — July's data predates the crude move entirely. A short-dated put spread struck below Monday's low is a cleaner expression of that skew than outright VIX calls at 15.46, and it does not require the vol level to rise to pay. |
13 · Risk Map |
| Crowded consensuses to stress-test, with the numbers |
| • "The Fed does not cut in 2026" — 0.0%, for a sixteenth consecutive session. A payroll contraction of 23,000 did not move it and a 5% crude rally did not move it. A probability that is invariant to both tails of the macro distribution is not a forecast; it is a positioning artefact. The stress test: a claims print above 240,000 on 8/13 alongside a soft PPI, which is the only scheduled combination that forces a non-zero number (§8, §12 idea 1). |
| • "Credit spreads are fine because IG is 78 bp." IG at 78 bp is 1 bp inside January and HY at 270 bp is at its 2026 tights — but the series is published with a one-business-day lag, so nothing in §9(a) has yet seen Monday. The stress test is composition, not level: a crude shock is a windfall for the energy issuers and a margin compression for every transport, chemical, retail and airline issuer, and a single index OAS cannot show that split (§9). |
| • "The AI capex cycle is a demand story." Intel raised $15bn of common equity on Monday and fell 4.06%; Riot Platforms fell 5.46% after a reported $9bn, twenty-year Anthropic contract; Coherent fell 12% and Lumentum more than 6% into their own prints; the SOX closed one tenth of a point off its low. Four separate financing-side events in one session, all marked down. The stress test: Applied Materials on 8/13 and Cisco on 8/12 (§5). |
| • "Small caps are the rate trade." The Russell 2000 fell 0.56%, the worst of the four equity indices, on a 7 bp rise in the 10-year — having risen 1.05% and led on Friday's 6 bp fall in the 2-year. The beta is real and it is symmetric; anyone long small caps for the Fed is short duration by another name. |
| • "The energy rally is a geopolitical trade." It is currently a logistics trade — products outran the barrel by 84 bp to 223 bp (§11). The stress test is the EIA distillate number on 8/12, and the asymmetry is that a reopening announcement unwinds the logistics premium instantly and the supply premium slowly. |
| The two-sided geopolitical tape |
| Hormuz is now genuinely two-sided in both directions and neither is priced. Araghchi says Tehran is not in direct talks and demands the U.S. end its shipping blockade and pay compensation; Washington maintains a deal is near; Iran said over the weekend a deal was "very close." Westpac: "Uncertainty remains high as we go into the sixth month of the Iran war… the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and the entry of the Yemen Houthis into the fray is interrupting alternative Red Sea supply routes." CENTCOM has redirected 55 commercial vessels, disabled 2 and boarded 2. A reopening announcement gaps crude several dollars lower and takes the refining crack with it; a Houthi escalation on the Red Sea alternative route does the opposite. Separately, the Cook removal process carries a 26 August response deadline and remains unpriced in the long end, where the 30-year at 5.25% moved 6 bp with everything else rather than leading. |
| Structural watch items |
| • ON RRP at $0.975bn — the first sub-$1bn print in the series' history — with reserves at $2.993tn and $150bn off the July peak. The buffer between a funding shock and the reserve balance is now zero. The NY Fed's Reserve Demand Elasticity release on 20 August is the only scheduled read on it (§7, §9b). |
| • The yen at 159.28, having given back 4.3 of the 8 yen the 31 July intervention bought, with Japanese markets shut on Tuesday. A second intervention at a worse level would be a policy-credibility event, not an FX event, and the U.S. IG credit bid is partly levered to it (§9d, §10). |
| • The bill/coupon divergence, still running. The 3-month is 2 bp lower on the week and the 10-year 2 bp higher; 3M10Y widened 5 bp on Monday to 83 bp. Term bill supply is being absorbed while the coupon curve cheapens, and the Treasury's own auction-cutback debate would make that worse rather than better (§6, §9). |
| • The CCC-minus-HY differential at 743 bp, narrowing for a third consecutive session. This report's longest-standing structural view is now on notice (§12 idea 6). |
| What the VIX is and is not pricing. At 15.46 the option market prices a daily S&P move of roughly 0.97%, against realised of 0.62%, 0.06% and 0.18% over the last three sessions. It is pricing Wednesday: implied volatility rose 3.76% on a day the index moved 0.06%, which is a pure event bid. What it is not pricing is the second-order structure of the week — that the July CPI print predates the crude shock entirely, so a benign core number resolves nothing about August; that one basis point of the September fed funds contract is worth about eight points of headline probability, so the post-print repricing will look larger than it is; and that the market enters the print with the front end having already surrendered the whole payroll rally and the long end carrying fresh term premium. A market that has no cushion at the front and no anchor at the back is not well described by a 15.46 VIX. That is the observation, and §12's volatility note is where it is expressed. |
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| Full sourcing, every vendor reconciliation, the arithmetic verification log and the Overnight/Asia read-through are in the companion file US_CrossAsset_Daily_2026-08-10_DataNotes.txt. |
| U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Closing Daily — Monday, August 10, 2026. Prepared for institutional investors. Not personalized investment advice; verify independently before acting. Sources include CNBC, WSJ, Bloomberg, Reuters, Investing.com, Finviz, TradingEconomics, U.S. Treasury, CME Group, FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Earnings Whispers. |