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U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Opening Daily
Tuesday, August 25, 2026 — Opening Briefing | Data as of ~9:44 AM ET | News window: Mon 24 Aug 4:00 PM ET → Tue 25 Aug 9:55 AM ET
Prepared for Institutional Investors. Not Personalized Investment Advice; Verify Independently before Acting. | Source Links and Data Notes & Conflicts provided in the companion text file (US_CrossAsset_Opening_2026-08-25_DataNotes.txt). |
1 · Pre-Open Dashboard |
| Timing disclosure, first. The scheduled 7:00 AM trigger did not complete; this edition was regenerated on request beginning 9:36 AM ET, after the cash open. Futures, fair value and the implied open are CNBC's final pre-market board print at 9:29 AM — a real pre-open observation. Every cash, rates, FX, commodity and single-name quote is live at 9:28–9:44 AM, inside the session. Nothing here is dressed as a forecast of something that had already happened; where the opening auction answered a pre-market question, both numbers are printed side by side. |
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| The overnight in one paragraph. Oil broke, and every other asset in this report is a derivative of that one fact. Brent fell 2.86% to $89.53 and WTI 2.85% to $82.59 after the New York Times reported that the United States is preparing to send diplomats back to embassies in the Middle East — read by the tape as a signal that the administration does not expect a return to full-scale conflict with Iran as it pivots from military measures to economic ones. That single headline did the work in four asset classes at once. Global duration rallied together for the first time in four sessions: the U.S. 10-year is 4.660%, 4.0 bp through Monday's 4.70% official par close, and on Bloomberg's sovereign board at 9:37 AM Germany −3 bp, the U.K. −5, France −5, Italy −5, Spain −4, Greece −5 and Canada −3 all moved with it — the exact inverse of Monday, when this report wrote that “America rallied alone.” The belly led — 5-year −4.3 bp and 7-year −5.4 bp against the 2-year's −3.2 bp — which is the signature of a breakeven move rather than a policy repricing, and it is what a 3% crude decline is supposed to look like in a bond market. Bloomberg's Ye Xie put the mechanism on the record at 9:30 AM: Treasuries gained on lower energy prices and “continued spillover from the Treasury Department actions to support bonds,” per Dan Carter of Fort Washington Investment Advisors, who added that “buybacks certainly don't address the long-term issues, but the signaling effect is important.” Equities took the gift and spent it entirely in one industry. SOX is +1.86% at 11,635.10, reversing more than half of Monday's 2.70% collapse, with AMD +3.82% on a Raymond James upgrade to Strong Buy and a $641 target, Intel +2.64%, Micron +2.35% and Nvidia +2.02% at $212.70 — snapping a seven-session losing streak on the morning before it reports — and the memory complex that was sold 5–6.5% on Monday bid back across the board. The composition is Monday's session run backwards: XLK +1.19% against staples −1.12% and energy −1.19%, where Monday had staples +1.4% and technology −1.3%. Underneath that, three tells that do not agree with the headline. First, the Dow refused the gift: CNBC's fair-value board at 9:29 put the implied Dow open at +239.84 points, and at 9:44 the index was +69.40 — 170 points given back inside fourteen minutes, while the S&P did the opposite and beat its own implied open by 7 points. Second, FX did not corroborate anything: a 3% oil move and a synchronised global bond rally, and DXY is −0.06%, USD/JPY +0.08%, USD/CHF −0.02% — the havens did not move and neither did the dollar. Third, the volatility bid did not clear. VIX printed a pre-open indication of 15.13, −4.54%, and by 9:44 it was back at 15.84, unchanged on the day — the equity rally bought no vol relief whatsoever, twenty-four hours before Nvidia and thirty-six before the PCE deflator. And on the other side of the trade the Wall Street Journal was running “New Tanker Strike in Hormuz as Iran Vows Retaliation for U.S. Economic Offensive” on the same morning the crude market priced de-escalation. What this hands the session: a semiconductor-led index with a hollow Dow, a bond market that rallied for the right reason rather than the fiscal one, a commodity complex that will re-price violently on any Hormuz headline, and a 1:00 PM 2-year note auction sitting in the middle of it. |
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| Equity futures — final pre-market print, 9:29 AM ET (CNBC fair-value board) |
| Contract | Future | Chg (pts) | %Chg | Fair value | Implied cash open | | S&P 500 (ES, Sep) | 7,697.25 | +27.50 | +0.36% | +7.11 | +20.39 → 7,673.25 | | Nasdaq-100 (NQ, Sep) | 29,309.25 | +203.50 | +0.70% | −14.57 | +218.07 → 29,241.25 | | Dow (YM, Sep) | 53,730 | +241 | +0.45% | +1.16 | +239.84 → 53,657.00 | | Russell 2000 (RTY, Sep) | 3,017.80 | +16.20 | +0.54% | +5.48 | +10.72 → 3,005.80 |
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| Futures ranking: NQ (+0.70%) > RTY (+0.54%) > YM (+0.45%) > ES (+0.36%). Long-duration equity first and small caps second, with the Dow third, is a lower-real-yield ordering, not a cyclical-reflation one — and it is exactly what a 4 bp belly rally should produce. Arithmetic: 27.50 ÷ 7,669.75 = +0.359%; 203.50 ÷ 29,105.75 = +0.699%; 241 ÷ 53,489 = +0.451%; 16.20 ÷ 3,001.60 = +0.540%. Prior settles are derived from the published change and reconcile to CNBC's own board. Basis note: the implied levels are prior cash close + CNBC's published IMPL OPEN. CNBC's parenthetical fair-value figure does not algebraically reconcile with its own FV CLOSE (S&P: FV close 7,676.86 less cash close 7,652.86 = 24.00, against a printed 7.11), so it is reproduced as displayed and used in no calculation here. |
| Cash indices — live 9:44:43 AM ET, against Monday's 4:00 PM close |
| Index | Live (9:44) | Chg | %Chg | Prior close | Note | | S&P 500 | 7,680.44 | +27.58 | +0.36% | 7,652.86 | Beat its own implied open (7,673.25) by 7.19 pts; 1.52% below the 13 Aug record | | Nasdaq Composite | 26,176.26 | +196.07 | +0.76% | 25,980.19 | Recovering all of Monday's 0.76% decline exactly | | Dow Jones Industrials | 53,486.56 | +69.40 | +0.13% | 53,417.16 | 170.4 pts below the 9:29 implied open of 53,657 — a hollow third straight gain | | Nasdaq 100 | 29,275.26 | +252.08 | +0.87% | 29,023.18 | Ahead of the S&P by 51 bp, inverting Monday's 69 bp lag | | PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) | 11,635.10 | +211.93 | +1.86% | 11,423.17 | Reverses 67% of Monday's 317-pt loss. SOXX +2.02%, SMH +1.87% | | Russell 2000 (via IWM) | 298.82 | +0.85 | +0.29% | 297.97 | CNBC's .RUT feed was stale at 9:44 — IWM used as the live proxy | | VIX | 15.84 | −0.01 | −0.06% | 15.85 | Round-tripped. Pre-open indication 15.13 (−4.54%) at 9:38; the bell took it back |
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| Rates — live 9:37–9:44 AM ET vs Monday's official 3:30 PM par close |
| Tenor | Live | Official par (8/24) | Chg | FX / Commodity | Level | %Chg | | 2 Yr | 4.208% | 4.24% | −3.2 bp | DXY (ICE) | 98.947 | −0.06% | | 5 Yr | 4.367% | 4.41% | −4.3 bp | EUR/USD | 1.1671 | +0.08% | | 7 Yr | 4.496% | 4.55% | −5.4 bp | USD/JPY | 159.21 | +0.08% | | 10 Yr | 4.660% | 4.70% | −4.0 bp | USD/CHF | 0.8021 | −0.02% | | 20 Yr | 5.181% | 5.21% | −2.9 bp | WTI (Oct) | $82.59 | −2.85% | | 30 Yr | 5.193% | 5.23% | −3.7 bp | Brent (Oct) | $89.53 | −2.86% | | 2s10s | 45.2 bp | 46 bp | −0.8 bp | Gold (Dec) | $4,672.20 | −0.54% | | 2s30s | 98.5 bp | 99 bp | −0.5 bp | Silver (Sep) | $67.63 | −1.41% | | 5s30s | 82.6 bp | 82 bp | +0.6 bp | Copper (Sep) | $6.623 | +0.27% | | 3M10Y | withheld | 83 bp | — | Bitcoin | ~$79,000 | high $81,023 |
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| Treasury yields are colour-inverted throughout: a lower yield is green. The live 3M10Y is deliberately not struck — CNBC marks the 3-month at 3.798% against the official par 3.87%, a 6.7 bp convention gap, and mixing the bases would manufacture a 3 bp spread move that did not happen. Bitcoin is a secondary-source figure (opened $78,982.27, +1.6% on Monday's open; overnight high $81,023.41; Yahoo Finance / Fortune, both dated 25 Aug) — four CNBC crypto symbols returned empty and no live pull was obtained. |
| Global equities overnight |
| Index | Level | %Chg | Note | Index | Level | %Chg | | Taiwan TAIEX | 45,169.46 | +0.91% | Led the world's tape — the semiconductor bid started in Taipei | DAX | 26,274.17 | +0.64% | | Kospi | 6,742.74 | +0.68% | Recovered only 22% of Monday's 3.12% collapse | FTSE MIB | 52,740.72 | +0.38% | | ASX 200 | 9,164.60 | +0.68% | Second consecutive gain | Stoxx 600 | 656.14 | +0.30% | | Nikkei 225 | 65,856.43 | +0.50% | JGB 10Y +1 bp — Japan did not join the rally | Euro Stoxx 50 | 5,493.48 | +0.23% | | Topix | 4,093.67 | +0.50% | Index and broad market identical — no rotation underneath | SMI | 14,479.45 | +0.22% | | Nifty 50 | 24,334.55 | +0.48% | India 10Y −2 bp to 6.85% | CAC 40 | 8,466.37 | +0.16% | | Shanghai Comp. | 3,889.45 | +0.19% | Equity-supply overhang still capping the tape | IBEX 35 | 20,088.80 | −0.05% | | Hang Seng | 25,511.10 | −0.02% | Regional laggard. HSCEI −0.31%; China/HK entities named in the Iran sanctions | FTSE 100 | 10,837.23 | −0.16% |
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| Europe's dispersion is a pure energy-weight story. The FTSE 100 is the only major decliner — the region's heaviest energy weighting, and it was the only European gainer on Monday, when crude fell for a different reason. The DAX led on the same logic reversed: an industrial, energy-importing index with a growth tilt is the direct beneficiary of a $2.60 fall in Brent plus a 3 bp Bund rally. Italy outperformed France and Spain, the periphery-over-core signature of improving risk appetite rather than a flight to quality. European levels are mid-session marks (13:24–15:24 GMT), not closes. |
2 · Overnight Hot Spots — ranked by tradability |
| 1. Oil fell 3% on a diplomatic-posture report, and it repriced four asset classes before the bell. [Commodities / Rates / Equities / FX] The mechanism is sourceable to a single item: the New York Times reported the U.S. is preparing to send diplomats back to embassies in the Middle East, which Bloomberg read as a signal that “the Trump administration doesn't anticipate a renewal of full-scale conflict with Iran as it shifts from military measures to threats of economic sanctions.” Brent −2.86% to $89.53; WTI −2.85% to $82.59. The chain: crude down → breakevens down → the inflation-sensitive belly leads a rally (5s −4.3 bp, 7s −5.4 bp) → equity multiples get a lower discount rate → the longest-duration index leads (NQ +0.70% vs ES +0.36%). Every leg printed. Forward hook: crude remains above its pre-February level, so this is a premium unwind, not a normalisation, and one headline reinstates it. Watch $88.50 Brent as confirmation; any Hormuz shipping headline is the invalidation (item 8). | | 2. The semiconductor complex bid Nvidia's own earnings, and the memory names it crushed on Monday led it. [Equities] SOX +1.86% to 11,635.10, retracing 67% of Monday's 317-point loss, and the internals are Monday reversed name by name. AMD +3.82% to $474.19 on the day's best-sourced call (item 6); Intel +2.64%; Micron +2.35% against Monday's −5.83%; Western Digital +2.32%, Seagate +1.94%, SanDisk +1.71% — the four names sold 5–6.5% on Monday on a report that Nvidia is raising server prices because memory costs are surging. Nvidia +2.02% to $212.70, breaking a seven-session losing streak, its first since September 2022. Monday's edition argued that selloff was either demand destruction at the buyer or a crowded cohort exiting; the cohort is being re-entered on no new information about memory. Forward hook: this is positioning into a binary, not a re-rating — Nvidia reports Wednesday AMC, twelve hours after the PCE deflator. A close above SOX 11,740 says the technical damage is repaired before the print. | | 3. The Dow was handed a 240-point open and gave 170 of it back in fourteen minutes. [Equities] This is the item a late edition can write and a 7:00 AM one cannot. CNBC's fair-value board at 9:29 put the implied Dow open at +239.84 (future 53,730, FV close 53,490.16). At 9:44:43 the Dow was 53,486.56, +69.40 — 170.4 points, 71% of the implied gain, gone. The S&P did the opposite: implied +20.39, actual +27.58, a 7.19-point beat. That is not a fair-value artefact, it is composition — the Dow carries no meaningful semiconductor weight and heavy weights in the two groups sold at the bell (XLP −1.12%, XLE −1.19%), while the S&P's gain is manufactured by XLK +1.19%. Forward hook: if the Dow cannot reclaim 53,657 by the 10:00 Consumer Confidence print, the rotation is real rather than a first-fifteen-minutes artefact. | | 4. Global duration rallied together — the American-specific problem was not this morning's driver. [Rates] Bloomberg's 10-year sovereign board at 9:37–9:38 AM: U.S. −4 bp to 4.66%, Germany −3 to 3.22%, U.K. −5 to 5.01%, France −5 to 4.07%, Italy −5 to 4.03%, Spain −4, Netherlands −3, Portugal −4, Greece −5, Switzerland −2, Canada −3, Brazil −5. Only Japan (+1 bp) and Australia (+1 bp) went the other way, both stamped before the oil move. For three sessions this report flagged a 3–5 bp American move against a flat Bund as a domestic duration problem; Monday inverted it; today the correlation is fully restored and the move is imported through the oil channel. Periphery: BTP–Bund 81 bp and OAT–Bund 85 bp, each in ~2 bp. Forward hook: if the 10-year cannot hold below 4.66% through the 1:00 PM 2-year auction, the rally was an oil artefact and the fiscal bid is still setting the marginal price. | | 5. Dick's Sporting Goods fell 22% and took the athletic-footwear chain with it. [Equities] DKS −22.32% to $139.30 on 3.02m shares by 9:42 — not an S&P 500 member. Q2 net income $315m / $3.50 vs $381m / $4.71; adjusted $3.53 against $3.76 consensus; net sales +53.4% to $5.59bn against $5.64bn expected. The split is the story: the Dick's segment comped +4.9%, helped by the 2026 FIFA World Cup, while Foot Locker proforma comps fell 3.6% on “challenging conditions in the athletic footwear marketplace.” FY guidance cut to $21.9–22.1bn and $10.94–11.94 EPS. The read-across is already trading: Nike −3.24% and On Holding −2.34%. Forward hook: the problem is the channel, not the consumer — the owned box comped +4.9% in the same quarter. Watch whether NKE holds $39.00. | | 6. Raymond James put AMD on Strong Buy with a $641 target, and it was the best-paid call of the morning. [Equities] AMD upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform, price target $641 from $565 — +40.3% upside to Monday's close — and AMD is +3.82%, roughly double Nvidia's move. Elsewhere on a dated 25 August sheet: Dynatrace to Overweight at Morgan Stanley ($65 from $58); Shift4 to Overweight at Wells Fargo ($59 from $55, +3.4%); Bread Financial to Outperform at Wolfe ($130); Moderna to Peer Perform at Wolfe. Against them: FIS cut to Equal Weight at Wells Fargo ($46, −1.1%); Klarna to Peer Perform; Nutrien to Sector Perform ($77); RLI to Underperform at Jefferies ($53). Forward hook: the upgrade lands the session before AMD's largest competitor reports. Holding the gain through Nvidia is a share-shift thesis; round-tripping on Thursday means it was beta. | | 7. Gold fell with oil, and the debasement trade split in half. [Commodities / FX] Gold −0.54% to $4,672.20 after Monday's best close since mid-May; silver −1.41%; platinum −2.18%; and the equity leg went with it — GDX −0.93%, Barrick −3.10%, Newmont −0.86%. This is the third different configuration in three sessions. Monday: gold up with the dollar up. Today: gold down with the dollar flat and real yields down. Neither is a real-rate trade — what both have in common is that gold is tracking the geopolitical and inflation premium, and today the same headline that moved crude removed it. But the other leg did not break: bitcoin opened at $78,982.27 and printed $81,023.41 overnight, its highest opening in more than three months. Forward hook: gold is now the geopolitics leg and bitcoin the fiscal/liquidity leg. A dovish Warsh on Friday re-converges them; a Hormuz escalation moves only gold. | | 8. The other side of the oil trade was on the Wall Street Journal's front the same morning. [Commodities / Geopolitics] While crude priced de-escalation, WSJ's World section led with “New Tanker Strike in Hormuz as Iran Vows Retaliation for U.S. Economic Offensive,” alongside “U.S. Squeezes Iran but Avoids Targeting Its Biggest Lifeline: China” and “Bessent Launches 'Operation Economic Outcast.'” Bloomberg separately reported dozens of China and Hong Kong entities hit by the sanctions. So the market is long a de-escalation signal against a live escalation fact and an unresolved enforcement question. Forward hook: the session's dominant gap risk, two-sided and on no calendar. A confirmed second tanker incident puts $5 back in Brent and unwinds items 1, 2 and 4 at once; explicit confirmation that China is exempt takes another $2–3 out. | | 9. Airlines were bid and energy equities funded it — the cleanest single-factor pair on the tape. [Equities / Commodities] United +2.42%, Delta +1.24%, Southwest +1.46%, American +1.54% against Occidental −1.90%, Devon −2.82%, Exxon −1.68%, ConocoPhillips −1.41%, Chevron −1.10%, with XLE −1.19% the worst sector at the open. But the refiners disagree with their own input: RBOB fell only 0.30% against crude's 2.92%, so the gasoline crack widened $2.06 to roughly $54.43/bbl — and refiners were sold anyway (Valero −0.90%, Marathon Petroleum −1.50%, Phillips 66 −1.06%). Forward hook: either the crack compresses or the refiners are mispriced against it. A same-day, same-sector arbitrage requiring no view on Iran (§12 idea 2). | | 10. Taiwan indicted an Nvidia manager in a chip-smuggling probe, and nobody cared. [Equities] Bloomberg: “Taiwan Indicts Nvidia Manager Following Chip Smuggling Probe.” Nvidia is +2.02% on the morning it broke. The non-reaction is the datapoint: with the print thirty-six hours away the tape refuses to price anything that is not the guide. Forward hook: export-control headlines have been a recurring 1–3% drag on this name; a zero-reaction signals pre-earnings positioning compression, which raises the implied move rather than lowering it. | | 11. Canada trade war escalates on the WSJ front page, and the transports have already discounted it. [Equities / Macro] WSJ Economy: “U.S. Imposes 50% Tariffs on Some Canadian Goods After Last-Ditch Talks Fail” and “U.S., Canada Spiral Toward Trade War.” Monday took the truckers hard (J.B. Hunt −5.65%, Old Dominion −2.42%, BorgWarner −5.05%); this morning they have stopped falling (JBHT −0.06%, ODFL +0.31%, BWA +1.32%). Materials, the supposed beneficiary, is again the loser: XLB −0.73%, Nucor +0.15%, Freeport +0.22%. Forward hook: Carney's retaliation lands 8 September. The trade that has worked twice is fading the steel “beneficiary” pop and holding the truckers after the second down day. | | 12. Scotiabank and Bank of Montreal both beat, and only one was paid. [Equities / Credit] Neither is an S&P 500 member. Bank of Nova Scotia +3.05%: Q3 net income C$2,953m vs C$2,527m, adjusted EPS C$2.28 against C$2.10 consensus, adjusted ROE 14.2% vs 12.4%, revenue C$10.54bn against a C$9.98bn FactSet estimate. Bank of Montreal −0.21%: fiscal Q3 net income C$1.25bn, adjusted C$2.84 against a C$2.71 Zacks consensus — a beat, sold. Forward hook: the Canadian banks are the only listed read on Canadian credit quality before 8 September, and the market paid a 14.2% ROE while refusing a headline beat. Watch the provisions commentary, not the EPS. |
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3 · Global Markets Overnight — Asia & Europe |
| Global sovereign 10-year yields — Bloomberg board, 9:37–9:38 AM ET |
| Sovereign | Yield | 1-Day | Sovereign | Yield | 1-Day | | United States | 4.66% | −4 bp | Canada | 3.65% | −3 bp | | United Kingdom | 5.01% | −5 bp | Netherlands | 3.30% | −3 bp | | France | 4.07% | −5 bp | Switzerland | 0.34% | −2 bp | | Italy | 4.03% | −5 bp | Brazil | 14.51% | −5 bp | | Greece | 3.88% | −5 bp | Mexico | 9.16% | −2 bp | | Spain | 3.67% | −4 bp | South Korea | 4.32% | −2 bp | | Portugal | 3.56% | −4 bp | Japan | 2.87% | +1 bp | | Germany | 3.22% | −3 bp | Australia | 5.02% | +1 bp |
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| BTP–Bund 81 bp (4.03 − 3.22), in ~2 bp from ~83; OAT–Bund 85 bp, also in ~2 bp. Periphery outperformed core — the risk-appetite confirmation the equity tape wants. Germany was the smallest core-European move, so the Bund is the anchor here, not the driver. Japan and Australia were the only two higher in yield and both carry timestamps (3:59 AM and 2:39 AM ET) that predate the oil move — do not read either as a rejection of the rally. |
| Overnight data and policy already released |
| Hungary cut its policy rate again, with inflation at a decade low (Bloomberg). The EM-Europe easing cycle continues; no G10 transmission. | | Hong Kong's trade deficit almost disappeared as exports surged (Bloomberg) — a genuine positive surprise on China-linked trade that the Hang Seng refused to pay for, closing −0.02%. The sanctions overhang is the likely reason. | | Pakistan is seeking a $10bn U.S. facility and expects a reply soon (Bloomberg). | | No U.S. release landed before the 9:30 open. The Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 is rated Low and passed without a market response; the first tradable print is 10:00 AM ET (§7). |
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| What this hands the U.S. open. Three imports, in order of size. One — a semiconductor bid built in Taipei, not New York: TAIEX +0.91% led the world's equity tape overnight and SOX +1.86% is the same trade in a different time zone, which is why the Nasdaq-100 opened 51 bp ahead of the S&P. Two — a synchronised global duration rally with the Bund as the smallest mover, which tells the desk this morning's 4 bp is an oil/breakeven move Europe shared, not the fiscal-plumbing story of the last fortnight — and therefore that it can be given back on one Hormuz headline rather than needing a Treasury announcement to unwind. Three — the FTSE 100's underperformance as the clean energy-beta signal, which arrived in the U.S. as XLE −1.19% and airlines +1.2–2.4%. What Europe did not hand over is a risk-off tell: the periphery tightened, the franc did nothing, and Bunds moved least of the majors. There is no continental hedge embedded in this open. |
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4 · Pre-Market Movers & Single-Name Catalysts |
| Basis, stated. All quotes are 9:41–9:44 AM ET — the first fifteen minutes of the regular session rather than the pre-market proper. Volumes are heavy and the thin-liquidity caveat that normally attaches to a pre-market percentage does not apply; the caveat that does apply is that opening prints are volatile and several of these will not hold. |
Higher | SMTC (non-S&P) $126.89 +4.94% — reported after Monday's close; strongest move in the semi complex. Earnings detail not independently verified (see companion notes). | | AMD $474.19 +3.82% — Raymond James → Strong Buy, PT $641 from $565 (+40.3% vs Monday's close). | | BNS (non-S&P) $89.51 +3.05% — Q3 adjusted EPS C$2.28 vs C$2.10; revenue C$10.54bn vs C$9.98bn; adjusted ROE 14.2%. | | INTC $89.56 +2.64% — semiconductor beta; no single-name catalyst identified. | | UAL $116.32 +2.42% — crude −2.9%; the cleanest fuel-cost beneficiary on the tape. | | MU $931.79 +2.35% — reverses Monday's −5.83% on no new memory-pricing information. | | WDC $445.50 +2.32% — reverses Monday's −5.24%. | | NVDA $212.70 +2.02% — breaks a seven-session losing streak, its longest since September 2022, on 9.95m shares by 9:42. Reports Wednesday AMC. | | STX $810.04 +1.94% — reverses Monday's −6.51%. | | SNDK (non-S&P) $1,518.70 +1.71% — reverses Monday's −6.45%. | | META $567.72 +1.56% — best mega-cap; no single-name catalyst identified. | | AAL $13.84 +1.54%, LUV $41.31 +1.46%, DAL $83.50 +1.24% — the rest of the fuel-cost basket. | | BWA $65.21 +1.32% — bounce after Monday's −5.05% on the Canada tariff headline. |
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Lower | DKS (non-S&P) $139.30 −22.32% — Q2 adjusted EPS $3.53 vs $3.76; sales $5.59bn vs $5.64bn; FY guidance cut. Foot Locker proforma comps −3.6%. | | NKE $39.43 −3.24% — read-through from the Foot Locker comp; the largest single-name casualty of somebody else's print. | | GOLD (non-S&P) $44.38 −3.10% — gold −0.54% and the miners carry the leverage. | | DVN $46.87 −2.82%, OXY $58.97 −1.90% — the highest-beta S&P energy names to the front contract. | | ONON (non-S&P) $28.82 −2.34% — athletic-footwear read-through from DKS. | | LI (non-S&P) $12.22 −2.12%, TCOM (non-S&P) $45.59 −0.93% — China ADR weakness; the Hang Seng was the regional laggard. | | XOM $161.29 −1.68%, COP $131.47 −1.41%, CVX $200.86 −1.10% — the integrateds; CVX is a direct Dow drag (item 3). | | MPC $357.08 −1.50%, PSX $239.40 −1.06%, VLO $342.90 −0.90% — sold despite a $2.06 widening in the gasoline crack (§10). | | NEM $130.70 −0.86% — gold −0.54%. | | INTU $366.90 −0.82% — reports tonight AMC, the only S&P 500 reporter today. Pre-print de-risking. |
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| Analyst rating actions — dated 25 August |
| Name | Action | Firm | Target | Reaction | | AMD | Outperform → Strong Buy | Raymond James | $641 from $565 (+40.3%) | +3.82% | | Dynatrace (DT) | Equal Weight → Overweight | Morgan Stanley | $65 from $58 | — | | Shift4 (FOUR) | Equal Weight → Overweight | Wells Fargo | $59 from $55 | +3.4% pre-open | | Bread Financial (BFH) | Peer Perform → Outperform | Wolfe Research | $130 | — | | Moderna (MRNA) | Underperform → Peer Perform | Wolfe Research | — | — | | FIS | Overweight → Equal Weight | Wells Fargo | $46 | −1.1% to $40.94 | | Klarna (KLAR) | Outperform → Peer Perform | Wolfe Research | — | — | | Nutrien (NTR) | Outperform → Sector Perform | National Bank | $77 from $74 | — | | RLI | Hold → Underperform | Jefferies | $53 (unch) | — | | Carlisle / Eagle Mat. / Fortune Br. | Initiated Neutral / Neutral / Buy | DA Davidson | $410 / $220 / $64 | — | | Jersey Mike's (JMKE) | Initiated Neutral | Goldman Sachs | $26 | — |
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| Sector map at the open (SPDR sector ETFs, 9:43–9:44): XLK +1.19%, XLI +0.34%, XLC +0.17%, XLV +0.04%, XLY −0.07%, XLRE −0.15%, XLU −0.24%, XLF −0.27%, XLB −0.73%, XLP −1.12%, XLE −1.19%. The two worst sectors today were the two best on Monday. CNBC's S&P sector board at 9:38 agrees directionally: Technology +0.98%, Consumer Discretionary +0.05%, Financials −0.18%, Consumer Staples −0.72%, Energy −0.95%. |
5 · Overnight Earnings Scorecard |
| No S&P 500 member reported between Monday's 4:00 PM close and this morning's open. Monday's Closing Daily carried Intuit (INTU) after tonight's close as the index's only reporter on 25 August, and that has not changed. Everything below is a non-member print, included because each carries a live read-across into an S&P 500 name or sector. |
| Name | Result | Reaction | Read-through | Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)
non-member | Q2 net income $315m / $3.50 vs $381m / $4.71; adjusted $3.53 vs $3.76; sales +53.4% to $5.59bn vs $5.64bn. Dick's segment comps +4.9% (FIFA World Cup a stated driver); Foot Locker proforma comps −3.6%. FY26 cut to $21.9–22.1bn / $10.94–11.94 | −22.32%
to $139.30 | The most consequential non-member print of the month. A clean split between a healthy owned box (+4.9%) and a broken wholesale footwear channel (−3.6%) — and the market is trading the second half: NKE −3.24%, ONON −2.34%. The FIFA tailwind is a one-quarter item and is now in the base | Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)
non-member | Q3 net income C$2,953m vs C$2,527m; adjusted EPS C$2.28 vs C$2.10; revenue C$10.54bn vs C$9.98bn (FactSet); adjusted ROE 14.2% vs 12.4% | +3.05%
to $89.51 | Cleared its own ROE target. The only listed read on Canadian credit quality two weeks before the 8 September retaliation date — and the market paid it | Bank of Montreal (BMO)
non-member | Fiscal Q3 net income C$1.25bn, EPS C$1.71; adjusted C$2.84 vs a C$2.71 Zacks consensus | −0.21%
to $171.98 | A headline beat, sold. Two Canadian banks, both beating, one paid and one not, is a provisions and mix question rather than an earnings-power one | Semtech (SMTC)
non-member | Reported after Monday's close; detail not independently verified this session | +4.94%
to $126.89 | Best percentage move in the semi complex; consistent with, but not proof of, a datacentre-connectivity read-through into the SOX bid |
|
| Aggregate. With no S&P 500 member in the window there is no meaningful blended beat rate for this session and none is asserted. The reaction function that is visible is the one this report has tracked for a week: beats are not being paid and misses are punished violently. BMO beat and finished flat; DKS missed adjusted EPS by 6.1% and lost 22% of its market value. The asymmetry into Nvidia tomorrow after the close — nine S&P 500 reporters on Wednesday, seven of them AMC — is therefore unfavourable to a merely-good print. |
6 · U.S. Treasury Par Curve & Rates |
| Official par curve — U.S. Treasury, 3:30 PM ET close, Monday 24 August 2026 |
| Tenor | 24 Aug | Δ 1-Day | Δ 1-Week | Tenor | 24 Aug | Δ 1-Day | Δ 1-Week | | 1 Mo | 3.79% | −1 bp | 0 bp | 5 Yr | 4.41% | −2 bp | +3 bp | | 3 Mo | 3.87% | −1 bp | 0 bp | 7 Yr | 4.55% | −2 bp | +1 bp | | 1 Yr | 4.04% | +1 bp | +4 bp | 10 Yr | 4.70% | −4 bp | −2 bp | | 2 Yr | 4.24% | 0 bp | +5 bp | 20 Yr | 5.21% | −4 bp | −9 bp | | 3 Yr | 4.31% | 0 bp | +6 bp | 30 Yr | 5.23% | −4 bp | −8 bp |
|
| Live early-session block — 9:37–9:44 AM ET vs the 24 August official par close |
| Tenor | Live | Official (8/24) | Δ bp | Spread | Live (9:44) | Official 8/24 | Δ 1-Day (8/24) | | 2 Yr | 4.208% | 4.24% | −3.2 | 2s10s | 45.2 bp | 46 bp | −4 bp | | 5 Yr | 4.367% | 4.41% | −4.3 | 2s30s | 98.5 bp | 99 bp | −4 bp | | 10 Yr | 4.660% | 4.70% | −4.0 | 5s30s | 82.6 bp | 82 bp | — | | 30 Yr | 5.193% | 5.23% | −3.7 | 3M10Y | withheld | 83 bp | −3 bp |
|
| The shape and the diagnostic: a belly-led bull rally, not a policy repricing, and it is imported. The move is monotonic in the wrong direction for a Fed story — the 5-year and 7-year moved most (−4.3 and −5.4 bp), the 10-year −4.0, the 30-year −3.7 and the 2-year least at −3.2. A Fed-path repricing anchors on the front end and the 2-year leads; a fiscal or term-premium event puts the move in the 20s and 30s, which is what Monday did. Today's move is concentrated in the five-to-ten-year sector — the part of the curve with the highest sensitivity to inflation breakevens — on a morning Brent fell 2.86%. That is a breakeven trade, and the proof it is not an American story is in §3: Germany −3, U.K. −5, France −5, Italy −5, Greece −5, Canada −3. Monday this report wrote that America rallied alone; today the correlation is fully restored and the driver is a global commodity price, not a domestic supply announcement. What that means for the fiscal trade: it does not retire it, it suspends it for a session. Bloomberg noted the 30-year has fallen about 9 bp to 5.19% since Bessent announced the plan to at least double buybacks, and the tenor Treasury named is still the best performer on the week (20-year −9 bp, 30-year −8 bp). But today's leg was bought by the oil tape, not by Treasury. The single sentence of Fed-path context that belongs here: the 2-year's refusal to lead says the strip's September pricing is essentially untouched by a 3% crude decline — the correct response to a supply-side energy move, and a mild hawkish tell hiding inside a bond rally. |
|
| Today's supply and Fed operations |
| 2-Year Note auction, 1:00 PM ET (with 17-week, 4-week and 8-week bills), from the Treasury's Tentative Auction Schedule. Size not published in anything read this session and none is asserted; the 1:00 PM time is the standing convention, not a primary confirmation. This is a mid-session equity risk event: it prices the exact tenor that participated least in the morning rally (−3.2 bp against the belly's −4.3), and it is the first coupon auction since the buyback programme became the market's dominant narrative. A tail would read as evidence the bills-for-bonds funding question is biting the front end, and it would hit today's rate-sensitive leadership directly. | | 5-year and 7-year note auctions later this week (Bloomberg), flagged by the same desk as the week's read on investor demand. | | Fed speakers: none verified for today. Four differently-worded sweeps returned only undated aggregator pages and 2019–2021 archive results — the standing dateline trap. The honest formulation is no speaker verified, not none scheduled. Jackson Hole runs 27–29 August with Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote Friday morning, 28 August. | | Vendor reconciliation. Bloomberg marks the U.S. 10-year at 4.66%, −4 bp at 9:37; CNBC marks 4.660%, −4.4 bp against its own evening prior close of 4.704%. The two agree to the basis point on the level and differ only on the prior-close basis. Every Δ above is struck against the official 3:30 PM par close, which is this report's standing basis. |
|
7 · U.S. Macroeconomic Calendar |
| ★ TODAY — ★ TODAY — Tuesday, August 25 |
|
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior | Sensitivity | What a beat / miss does | | 08:30 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing | — | — | Low | Already released before the open. No market response identified; a regional services survey with no curve transmission | | 10:00 | Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) | not verified | 90.8 (Jul, −1.4 from an upwardly revised 92.2) | Medium | The first tradable print of the day, 30 minutes into the session. A soft headline with a weak labour differential bids the belly (5s/7s), extends the rally and helps today's leadership — small caps, tech, utilities. A hot print, especially in expectations, sells the belly straight back and hands the Dow's staples/energy composition the relative win. Corroborating signal: Michigan sentiment fell to 51 in early August from 55.2, against a 54.5 expectation — the risk is skewed lower | | 10:00 | New Residential Sales (July) | not verified | 628k SAAR (Jun, +1.6% m/m) | Medium | The cleanest domestic read on whether the long end's 8 bp weekly rally is transmitting. Homebuilders and XLRE are the expression | | 10:00 | Richmond Fed Manufacturing | not verified | 4 (Jun, −9 from 13) | Low | Matters only as a same-hour confirmation or contradiction of Consumer Confidence | | 13:00 | 2-Year Note auction (+17w, 4w, 8w bills) | — | — | High (event) | See §6. A tail on the tenor that participated least in the morning rally is the session's most likely source of a mid-afternoon equity air pocket |
|
| Consensus is not asserted where it could not be verified from a primary or dated secondary source this session. Where that is the case the prior is given and the sensitivity and transmission are described instead, per the standing rule against invented consensus. |
| Overnight global data already released |
| Region | Item | Outcome | Reaction | | Hungary | Policy rate decision | Cut again, inflation at a decade low (Bloomberg) | EM-Europe easing continues; no G10 transmission | | Hong Kong | Trade balance | Deficit almost eliminated as exports surged (Bloomberg) | Hang Seng closed −0.02% anyway — a positive surprise the tape refused to pay for, with the sanctions overhang the likely reason |
|
| Rest of this week, and next week |
| Date | Time | Release | Sens. | Date | Time | Release | Sens. | | Wed 8/26 | 08:30 | Advance Durable Goods | Med | Mon 8/31 | 10:30 | Dallas Fed Manufacturing | Low | | Wed 8/26 | 08:30 | GDP, 2nd release (Q2) | Med | Tue 9/1 | 10:00 | ISM Manufacturing | High | | Wed 8/26 | 08:30 | Personal Income & PCE Deflator | V.High | Tue 9/1 | 10:00 | JOLTS | Med | | Wed 8/26 | 10:00 | Corporate Bond Distress (NY Fed) | Low | Wed 9/2 | 08:15 | ADP Employment | Med | | Thu 8/27 | 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | High | Thu 9/3 | 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | High | | Thu 8/27 | 10:00 | Multivariate Core Trend (NY Fed) | Med | Thu 9/3 | 10:00 | ISM Non-Manufacturing | High | | Thu–Sat | — | Jackson Hole; Warsh keynote Fri AM | V.High | Fri 9/4 | 08:30 | Employment Situation (Aug) | V.High | | Fri 8/28 | 10:00 | Michigan Consumer Survey (final) | Med | Mon 9/7 | — | Labor Day — markets closed | — |
|
| The look-ahead — the oil move just changed the shape of Wednesday's risk. Today's calendar is thin and the tape has priced most of it; the week's argument starts at 8:30 tomorrow. What is different from Monday's framing is the starting point. Twenty-four hours ago the long end had rallied 8–9 bp on a fiscal-plumbing story and this report argued a soft core PCE would “get less help from duration than it would have.” That is no longer the constraint: today's 4 bp came out of the belly on a breakeven move, which is precisely the part of the curve a soft deflator would extend, and the 5-year is now 4.367% rather than 4.41%. So the dovish surprise has had its transmission channel handed back to it — while the hawkish surprise now hits a market that has just spent a session pricing energy disinflation, which makes it the larger of the two shocks. The Cleveland Fed nowcast has tracked core PCE near 3.3% y/y, with this month's specific upside risk the 6.5% surge in portfolio management fees feeding the services line. Twelve hours after the print, Nvidia reports — nine S&P 500 names on Wednesday, seven after the close, the most concentrated earnings day left in the quarter. Then claims Thursday into a four-week average near 204,000, and Warsh's first Jackson Hole address Friday morning into a bond market where Treasury has moved the 20-year 9 bp in a week without buying a single security. The hooks, in the order they can move the Fed card: Consumer Confidence today 10:00 → 2-year auction today 13:00 → PCE 8/26 08:30 → Nvidia 8/26 AMC → claims 8/27 → Warsh 8/28 → ISM manufacturing 9/1 → ISM services and claims 9/3 → payrolls 9/4, the last labour print before the 16 September FOMC. |
|
9 · FX Market |
| Pair | Level | Chg | %Chg | Driver | | DXY (ICE cash) | 98.947 | −0.055 | −0.06% | The session's cleanest non-confirmation. A 3% crude decline and a synchronised global bond rally, and the dollar has not moved. The Sep future marks 98.875, −0.05% — the two agree | | EUR/USD | 1.1671 | +0.0009 | +0.08% | Bunds rallied less than every other core European curve (−3 bp), which should have helped the euro more than this. It did not | | USD/JPY | 159.21 | +0.13 | +0.08% | Yen weaker on a global duration rally — the JGB 10-year was one of only two sovereigns higher in yield. The carry trade is not being unwound | | GBP/USD | 1.3641 | +0.0011 | +0.08% | Gilts led the developed rally at −5 bp with the 10-year at 5.01%, and sterling gained 8 bp. A 5 bp rally that buys almost nothing in the currency | | USD/CHF | 0.8021 | −0.0002 | −0.02% | The haven cross is inert. On a de-escalation headline the franc should have been sold. It was not | | AUD/USD | 0.7154 | +0.0005 | +0.07% | Copper +0.27% was the only green metal; the commodity currency tracked the metal, not the crude | | USD/CNY | 6.7195 | −0.0024 | −0.04% | Renminbi marginally firmer despite dozens of China/Hong Kong entities being named in the Iran sanctions | | USD/KRW | 1,385.09 | +2.20 | +0.16% | The largest move in the sample, and it is the wrong way. The won weakened on a session the Kospi rose 0.68% and the global semi complex was bid | | USD/MXN | 16.9413 | −0.0007 | −0.00% | Unchanged. Mexico's 10-year rallied 2 bp and the peso ignored it | | USD/BRL | 5.1483 | −0.0043 | −0.08% | The best EM cross in the sample, on a 5 bp Brazilian 10-year rally |
|
| The take — FX is the one asset class that refused to ratify this morning's story, and that is worth more than the moves themselves. Every other market traded the de-escalation headline with conviction: crude −2.9%, ten sovereign curves rallying together, semiconductors +1.9%, energy equities −1.2%. Currencies did nothing — the entire G10 sample is inside 10 basis points, the dollar index is −0.06%, and the two havens that should have been sold on a genuine geopolitical de-risking, the yen and the franc, were not sold at all. There are two readings and they have opposite trades. The benign one is that a supply-side energy move is symmetric across the G10 — everybody's terms of trade improved at once, no relative-rate differential changed, and FX correctly did nothing; on that reading the equity and rates moves are real. The uncomfortable one is that FX is not treating “diplomats returning to embassies” as a resolution at all and is holding its haven exposure into the WSJ's tanker-strike headline (§2 item 8) — on that reading equities and rates have over-extrapolated. The tell that separates them is USD/CHF. A sustained move above 0.8050 with crude staying low says FX has capitulated to the equity read; the franc bid holding here while crude keeps falling says somebody is still paying for insurance and the oil move is the one to fade. Translating to equities: a flat dollar means the S&P's foreign-revenue cohort gets no translation help today, so today's leadership is genuinely a duration and energy-cost story rather than a currency one — which is why airlines (+1.2% to +2.4%) and semis (+1.9%) are working while the multinational staples complex (XLP −1.12%) is not. The one live idiosyncratic risk is USD/KRW at 1,385.09, +0.16% — a won that weakens while Korean semiconductors rally is the sequence that preceded Monday's 3.12% Kospi collapse, and it deserves watching into tomorrow's Asia session. |
|
10 · Commodities |
| Contract | Price | Chg | %Chg | Driver | | WTI (Oct, NYMEX) | $82.59 | −$2.42 | −2.85% | NYT report that U.S. diplomats are returning to Middle East embassies, read as de-escalation. CNBC's 9:38 board: $82.53, −2.92% | | Brent (Oct, ICE) | $89.53 | −$2.64 | −2.86% | Brent–WTI $6.94, in 22 cents from Monday's $7.16 — the spread narrowed as both fell, which says risk-premium unwind, not a U.S. logistics event | | RBOB Gasoline (Sep) | $3.261/gal | −$0.010 | −0.30% | The number of the day. Gasoline fell one-tenth as much as crude | | Natural Gas (Sep) | $2.711 | −$0.071 | −2.55% | Fell with the complex despite no Iran linkage — a correlation trade, not a fundamental one | | Gold (Comex Dec) | $4,672.20 | −$25.60 | −0.54% | Gave back a third of Monday's +0.78%. CNBC's 9:38 board: $4,668.6, −0.62% | | Silver (Comex Sep) | $67.63 | −$0.964 | −1.41% | Fell 2.6× gold in percentage terms — the industrial leg of the precious complex is the weaker one again | | Platinum (Oct) | $1,848.00 | −$41.20 | −2.18% | The worst metal; a second consecutive session of precious-complex dispersion | | Copper (Comex Sep) | $6.623 | +$0.018 | +0.27% | The only green commodity in the sample. Third consecutive gain | | Wheat (Dec) | 688.75c | −10.75c | −1.54% | Energy-cost pass-through into ag inputs | | Corn (Dec) | 513.75c | −1.75c | −0.34% | — |
|
| The take — the crack spread and the copper print are both arguing against the tape's own story. Start with the arithmetic that matters: RBOB at $3.261/gal is $136.96 per barrel; less WTI at $82.53 that is a gasoline crack of $54.43, against $52.37 at Monday's settle — the crack widened $2.06 on a day crude fell 2.9%. Refining margin expanded, and every refiner in the S&P 500 was sold anyway: Valero −0.90%, Marathon Petroleum −1.50%, Phillips 66 −1.06%. That is a same-sector, same-session mispricing that requires no view on Iran, and it is the cleanest actionable item here. The reason it exists is positioning: energy is being sold as a factor (XLE −1.19%) because the front contract fell, and the factor trade does not distinguish between the barrel producer, whose revenue just fell 2.9%, and the barrel refiner, whose margin just widened 3.9%. Second, copper. A 0.27% gain is small, but it is the only positive print in a complex that fell across energy, precious and grains — and it comes with Freeport +0.22% holding after Monday's intraday all-time high. Copper is the one contract with no Iran exposure and full global-industrial exposure, so its refusal to fall is a quiet vote for the growth side of the ledger rather than the disinflation side. Third, the positioning read on precious. Gold −0.54%, silver −1.41%, platinum −2.18% — a strictly increasing decline as you move down the quality ladder is the signature of length being reduced, not of a re-rating: the marginal seller closes the most crowded, highest-beta leg first, and Monday's best gold close since mid-May is exactly the setup that produces it. Equity read-through: negative to E&P (OXY −1.90%, DVN −2.82%), the integrateds (XOM −1.68%, CVX −1.10%, a direct Dow drag) and gold miners (Barrick −3.10%); positive to airlines (UAL +2.42%, DAL +1.24%, LUV +1.46%, AAL +1.54%), and — not yet trading — to chemicals, packaged food and truckers, where a $2.42 fall in the barrel is a Q3 cost tailwind nobody has marked. Contract caveat: energy quotes are the October front contract, metals the stated Comex month; gold's spot fix differs from the December future by the carry, and this report uses the future throughout for consistency with prior editions. |
|
12 · Trading Views |
| Desk-style expressions. Not personalized investment advice; verify independently before acting. |
| 1. Long the Dow's implied-open gap — buy DIA / sell QQQ into the 10:00 print, tight stop. Expression: long DIA against short QQQ, dollar-neutral, small. The case: the Dow was handed +239.84 by CNBC's 9:29 fair-value board and had delivered +69.40 by 9:44 — 170 points, 71% of the gift, given back in fifteen minutes — while the S&P beat its own implied open. Some of that is opening-auction staggering in a 30-name price-weighted index and it typically repairs inside the first hour. Catalyst: Consumer Confidence, 10:00 AM ET — a soft print is the one thing that helps staples and utilities, where the shortfall lives. Invalidation: Dow through 53,400, or the spread failing to close half the gap by 10:30. Sizing: quarter size, mean reversion on a mechanical artefact, closed by 11:00 either way. | | 2. Long refiners against E&P — buy VLO/MPC, sell OXY/DVN. Expression: long VLO + MPC, short OXY + DVN, beta-neutral. The case: the gasoline crack widened $2.06 to $54.43/bbl this morning (RBOB −0.30% against WTI −2.92%) and the refiners were sold with the energy factor anyway — VLO −0.90%, MPC −1.50% against OXY −1.90%, DVN −2.82%. Refining margin is up on the session; production revenue is down 2.9%. Catalyst: Wednesday's EIA inventory and the product-crack print; more immediately, any stabilisation in the front contract, which unwinds the factor selling without unwinding the crack. Invalidation: the crack back inside $52.50, or a Hormuz escalation taking crude up 4%+. Sizing: beta-neutral, half size. | | 3. Fade the semiconductor bid into the Nvidia print — or better, buy the volatility instead. Expression: preferred as long volatility rather than short delta — buy the NVDA event straddle, or reduce SOX length above 11,740. The case: SOX +1.86% has retraced 67% of Monday's collapse on no new information about memory pricing. The same four names sold 5–6.5% on Monday are up 1.7–2.4% today and nothing between the sessions changed the fact pattern — this is positioning reinstated into a binary. Meanwhile VIX round-tripped from a 15.13 pre-open indication to 15.84, unchanged, so index vol is not charging for the event even though the underlying has moved 2.7% down and 1.9% up in twenty-four hours. Catalyst: Nvidia, Wednesday AMC, twelve hours after the PCE deflator. Invalidation: SOX closing above 11,800 with breadth (20+ of 30 members higher), which would say accumulation rather than squeeze. Sizing: express through options — short delta into an event with a two-sided macro print in front of it is the wrong risk shape. | | 4. Short Nike on the Foot Locker read-through, or sell upside calls against existing length. Expression: short NKE, or overwrite. The case: DKS −22.32% with Foot Locker proforma comps −3.6% on explicitly “challenging conditions in the athletic footwear marketplace” — while the Dick's owned box comped +4.9%. That split isolates the problem to wholesale athletic footwear, which is Nike's channel. NKE −3.24% is a first reaction, not a full discount. Catalyst: softlines commentary through the week; Ulta Thursday AMC as a partial read on discretionary specialty. Invalidation: NKE reclaiming $40.75. Sizing: small — a read-across is a weaker signal than a print, and Nike's own quarter is not in the window. | | 5. Own the belly against the wings — the 2s5s steepener, not the 5s30s flattener. Expression: long the 5-year against short the 2-year. The case: today's rally was belly-led — 5s −4.3 bp and 7s −5.4 bp against 2s −3.2 bp — because it is a breakeven move driven by a 2.9% crude decline, and the belly carries the highest breakeven sensitivity on the curve. The 2-year has the 1:00 PM auction sitting on it, and it is the tenor that participated least, so it has both a supply event and the weakest momentum. Catalyst: 2-year auction 1:00 PM; PCE Wednesday 8:30, where a soft core print extends exactly this leg. Invalidation: crude reclaiming $85 (Monday's settle), which removes the breakeven driver and re-imposes the fiscal regime in which the front end outperforms. Sizing: DV01-neutral. | | 6. Buy the airlines' fuel windfall while it is still a commodity trade and not yet a consensus one. Expression: long UAL / DAL basket. The case: crude −2.9% and the group is up 1.2–2.4% — a same-day beta response, not a re-rating. Jet fuel is 20–25% of operating cost and a sustained $2.50 fall in the barrel is a multi-hundred-million-dollar annualised item no sell-side model has marked. Catalyst: the crude tape itself; any confirmation the diplomatic normalisation is real. Invalidation: Brent back above $92.17 (Monday's settle), or a confirmed second Hormuz tanker incident. Sizing: size it as a crude view, not an equity view. |
|
| The vol note. VIX is 15.84, −0.06%, effectively unchanged — and the path is the point: it printed a 15.13 pre-open indication at 9:38, −4.54%, and was back to Monday's close by 9:44. An equity market that rallies 0.36% and buys back its entire volatility decline inside six minutes is not a market that believes the rally. VIX9D marked 14.07 and VXN 22.69, both flagged UNCH by CNBC against their own prior closes at the time of pull, so neither is used here — the standing lesson is that a percentage change is only as good as the prior close beside it, and CNBC revises those during the session. What is not priced: the option-implied move for the S&P today could not be retrieved and none is asserted. What can be said from the observable surface is that with VIX at 15.84 and the index 1.52% below its 13 August record, the market is carrying a full macro print (PCE, Wednesday 8:30) and the largest single-name event of the quarter (Nvidia, Wednesday AMC) inside a sub-16 VIX — that is the mispricing, and it is why every expression above is framed long-volatility or spread rather than directional. Key levels: S&P prior close 7,652.86; implied open 7,673.25; 13 August record 7,798.99; the round number the tape is trading around is 7,700, which the ES future touched overnight at 7,697.25 and the cash index has not yet reached. Dow: prior close 53,417.16, implied open 53,657. SOX: 11,740 as the level that says the semiconductor damage is repaired. |
|
13 · S&P 500 Earnings Calendar |
| ★ TODAY — ★ TODAY — Tuesday, August 25 |
|
| BMO (before the bell): no S&P 500 member. The morning's prints were all non-members — Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) — and are covered in §5. |
| AMC (tonight): Intuit (INTU) — the index's only reporter today, trading $366.90, −0.82% at 9:42, de-risking into the print. Consensus EPS and revenue could not be verified from a primary or dated source this session and none is asserted; the option-implied move was likewise not retrievable. What can be said: Intuit is the first of the week's large-cap software prints and it lands the evening before Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Synopsys and Veeva all report in the same Wednesday AMC slot as Nvidia. A soft small-business commentary from Intuit is the read-across the software complex will trade on Wednesday morning, before Nvidia has even printed. |
| Non-members also reporting today, listed so their absence is not mistaken for an omission: Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Heico (HEI/HEI.A), Zoom (ZM), Semtech (SMTC). |
|
| Wed 8/26 BMO: J.M. Smucker (SJM), Williams-Sonoma (WSM). AMC: Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce (CRM), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Synopsys (SNPS), Agilent Technologies (A), Veeva Systems (VEEV), HP Inc. (HPQ). — Nine S&P 500 reporters, seven after the close: the most concentrated earnings day left in the quarter, and it sits twelve hours after the PCE deflator. |
| Thu 8/27 BMO: Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Best Buy (BBY), Hormel Foods (HRL). AMC: Marvell Technology (MRVL), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Ulta Beauty (ULTA). |
| Fri 8/28 No S&P 500 reporter on either bucket. |
| Next week — Aug 31 to Sep 4 |
|
| Mon 8/31 No S&P 500 reporter on either bucket. |
| Tue 9/1 BMO: Medtronic (MDT). AMC: Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Dell Technologies (DELL). |
| Wed 9/2 BMO: Brown-Forman (BF.B). AMC: Broadcom (AVGO), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), NetApp (NTAP). |
| Thu 9/3 BMO: Campbell's (CPB), Toro (TTC). AMC: Lululemon Athletica (LULU). Timing bucket not published: Copart (CPRT). |
| Fri 9/4 No S&P 500 reporter on either bucket. |
| Changes versus the 24 August calendar: no additions and no removals for 25 August through 4 September. Every S&P 500 name reappears in the same before-open / after-close bucket; Intuit tonight AMC is confirmed by a third consecutive capture. Dual listings deduped: Brown-Forman carried once as BF.B; Heico is a non-member today either way. Nasdaq publishes a bucket rather than a clock time, so no clock times are asserted — confirm every date against company investor relations before trading it. |
| What the forward calendar hands the desk, and what today changed about it. The concentration is unchanged — eighteen S&P 500 names across three days, nine of them on Wednesday. What changed this morning is the price Wednesday is being met at, and the direction of the change is the opposite of Monday's. Twenty-four hours ago Nvidia arrived having fallen seven consecutive sessions and 2.91% on the day, with its memory suppliers down 5–6.5% on a story about its own input costs, and this report framed the print as the only event that could arbitrate. Today the complex has bought all of that back without new information: NVDA +2.02%, breaking the streak; Micron +2.35%; SOX +1.86%. Agilent and HP Inc., both of which fell more than 3.5% on Monday two days ahead of their prints, sit inside a technology sector at +1.19%. The setup has therefore inverted from “a beaten-down complex that needs good news” to “a repaired complex that has already spent it” — and the reaction function in §5 says beats are not being paid. Then the calendar rolls into a second AI week: Broadcom on Wednesday 2 September, with Palo Alto Networks and Dell on Tuesday 1 September. |
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14 · Risk Map — Today's Session |
| ★ TODAY — ★ THE EVENT CLOCK — Tuesday, August 25 |
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| Time (ET) | Event | Note | | 08:30 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing | Passed. Low sensitivity; no market response identified | | 09:30 | Cash open | Passed. S&P beat its implied open by 7.19 pts; the Dow missed its own by 170.4 | | 10:00 | Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) | The first tradable print of the day. Prior 90.8; Michigan's early-August collapse to 51 skews the risk lower | | 10:00 | New Residential Sales (July) | Prior 628k SAAR. The cleanest domestic read on whether the long end's 8 bp weekly rally is transmitting | | 10:00 | Richmond Fed Manufacturing | Prior 4. Same-hour confirmation or contradiction of Consumer Confidence | | 13:00 | 2-Year Note auction (+17w, 4w, 8w bills) | The session's most likely air pocket. Prices the tenor that participated least in the morning rally | | 16:00 | Cash close | — | | AMC | Intuit (INTU) | The index's only reporter today; the software read-across into Wednesday | | any time | Middle East headline risk | Two-sided and on no calendar — see below |
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| Crowded consensuses to stress-test |
| The consensus | The number that breaks it | | “The Iran risk premium is coming out of crude” | One confirmed second tanker incident in Hormuz. WSJ ran “New Tanker Strike in Hormuz as Iran Vows Retaliation” on the same morning the barrel fell 2.9%. Brent back through $92.17 unwinds §2 items 1, 2, 4, 6 and 9 simultaneously | | “The semi complex has repaired itself before Nvidia” | SOX failing to hold 11,500 into the close, or a Nvidia guide that is merely in line. The complex has retraced 67% of Monday's loss on no new information — it is positioning, not fundamentals | | “The bond rally is durable” | A tailed 2-year auction at 1:00 PM. The move is a breakeven trade on a commodity price; crude back at $85 removes the driver entirely and re-imposes the fiscal regime, in which the front end outperforms and today's belly leadership reverses | | “Rotation back into growth is under way” | The Dow reclaiming 53,657 by 11:00. If the 170-point shortfall closes, this morning's staples/energy weakness was an opening-auction artefact and there is no rotation to trade | | “VIX at 15.84 is the right price” | The PCE deflator Wednesday 8:30 and Nvidia twelve hours later, inside a sub-16 VIX. This is the report's central identified mispricing | | “Beats get paid” | BMO beat and closed flat; DKS missed by 6% and lost 22%. Wednesday's nine reporters meet a tape that punishes blemishes and ignores beats |
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Toward risk-on | Confirmation that U.S. diplomats have physically returned to Middle East posts. | | Explicit confirmation that Chinese refiners are exempt from “Operation Economic Outcast” (WSJ: “U.S. Squeezes Iran but Avoids Targeting Its Biggest Lifeline: China”) — worth another $2–3 out of Brent. | | Any de-escalation of the Canada trade dispute ahead of the 8 September retaliation date. |
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Toward risk-off | A second Hormuz tanker strike or a confirmed Iranian retaliation — $5 back in Brent. | | Enforcement action against a named Chinese refiner, which converts the sanctions from a rhetorical instrument into a live supply event. | | Escalation of the Canada tariff regime, which Monday showed hits transports hardest (JBHT −5.65%) and does not pay the supposed steel beneficiaries. |
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Structural watch items carried forward | The buyback credibility question. Druckenmiller's WSJ op-ed against his own protégé — “Governments defending prices against fundamentals always lose” — and El-Erian's CNBC version remain unanswered. The first operation is 9 September; until then the programme has moved the 20-year 9 bp on the week without buying a single security. | | The bills-for-bonds funding channel. SOFR at 3.65%, level with IORB, and tri-party/broad GC 3 bp higher were Monday's tells. Today's 2-year auction is the first coupon test of the same question. | | The concentration problem. Monday had 306 S&P 500 members up and the index down. Today is the mirror: an index up 0.36% with two sectors down more than 1% and one up 1.19%. One industry is still large enough to be the index. | | WSJ, standing: “The Treasury Market's Coveted Status as a Safe Haven Is Fading” and “Nvidia Has Become a Banker to the AI Boom, Putting It on Dangerous Ground” — the vendor-financing question Wednesday's print will be read against. |
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| What the VIX is and is not pricing. VIX 15.84, unchanged on the day, after a 15.13 pre-open indication that lasted six minutes. What it is pricing: a quiet Tuesday with a Medium-rated 10:00 print and no Fed speaker verified. What it is emphatically not pricing: (1) the PCE deflator Wednesday at 8:30, the first Very-high release in the window, against a Cleveland Fed core nowcast near 3.3% and a known upside risk in the portfolio-management-fee line; (2) Nvidia twelve hours later, alongside eight other S&P 500 reporters, into a semiconductor complex that has just retraced two-thirds of a 2.70% collapse on no new information; (3) Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole address Friday morning, the only scheduled event that can re-anchor a terminal rate the market draws near 4.085%; and (4) a Middle East tape that is live in both directions and on no calendar at all — a tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz on the same morning crude fell 2.9% on a diplomatic-posture report. The honest summary: the index rallied, the volatility surface did not budge, and the three largest events of the week are all still in front of the tape. That combination has one clean expression, and it is to own convexity rather than direction. |
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| Sources. Futures, fair value and the published implied open, cash indices, the live Treasury strip, the S&P sector board, single-name quotes and FX/commodity marks: CNBC (pre-markets board and the CNBC quote service, pulled live 9:28–9:44 AM ET). Global sovereign 10-year yields with per-row EDT timestamps, the Markets Wrap framing, the Ye Xie rates piece with the Fort Washington attribution, and the China/Hong Kong sanctions detail: Bloomberg (/markets, /markets/rates-bonds and two article pages). Front-page and section reads including the Hormuz tanker strike, the Canada tariff escalation and the Nvidia vendor-financing piece: The Wall Street Journal (/finance, /world, /business, /us-news, /economy — five of six sections; /tech was truncated and is not counted as read). The official par curve for 24 August, prior closes, prior calendars and earnings rosters: the 24 August Closing Daily, which carries them from Treasury.gov, the NY Fed Economic Indicators Calendar and the Nasdaq earnings calendar API. Earnings detail, analyst actions and the bitcoin prints: WWD/Footwear News, SEC EDGAR, MarketScreener, WTOP, 24/7 Wall St., Yahoo Finance and Fortune, each dated 25 August. Bloomberg and WSJ were both reachable this session and were used as primary cross-checks, not fallbacks; Bloomberg's minus-sign-stripping trap was assumed present and no sign was taken from any Bloomberg numeric surface — every direction in this report is derived from CNBC's signed board or from the level against a known prior close. |
| Full Source Links and Data Notes & Conflicts — including the timing disclosure, the stale-feed catches, the vendor-basis gaps and every withheld figure — are in the companion text file US_CrossAsset_Opening_2026-08-25_DataNotes.txt. |
| U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Opening Daily — Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Prepared for institutional investors. Not personalized investment advice; verify independently before acting. Prices are live 9:28–9:44 AM ET; futures, fair value and the implied open are CNBC's final pre-market print at 9:29 AM ET. |
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