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U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Opening Daily
Thursday, September 10, 2026 — Pre-Open Briefing | Data as of: ~9:55 AM ET | News window: Wed 9 Sep 4:00 PM ET → Thu 10 Sep ~9:55 AM ET
Prepared for Institutional Investors. Not Personalized Investment Advice; Verify Independently before Acting. | Source Links and Data Notes & Conflicts provided in the companion text file (US_CrossAsset_Opening_2026-09-10_DataNotes.txt). |
1 · Pre-Open Dashboard |
| RUN-TIMING DISCLOSURE, STATED FIRST. This edition is scheduled for 7:00 AM ET. It fired at 9:20 AM ET, ten minutes before the cash open, and the data captures run 9:25–9:55 AM ET. Every table below is therefore stamped at or just after the 9:30 open, not two and a half hours before it. The dashboard reports both the overnight futures picture (4:44 AM ET) and the opening print — because the gap between them is, this morning, the single most important fact in the report. Nothing has been back-stamped. Pre-market quotes in (§4) are labelled [pm] or [open] and never mixed. |
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| The overnight in one paragraph. The overnight session and the opening print are two different markets, and the distance between them is the trade. At 4:44 AM ET the tape was constructive: S&P 500 futures +0.17% (+13.00 to 7,656.75), Dow futures +0.27%, Nasdaq-100 futures −0.06%, with Yahoo Finance's own headline reading that stocks looked “to snap 3-day losing streak as oil pauses rally.” By 9:32 AM ET the S&P 500 cash index was 7,591.81, down 0.59%, and the Nasdaq Composite −0.84%. That is a 0.76-percentage-point round trip between the small hours and the opening bell, and it was not caused by the 8:30 data. August PPI printed +0.4% m/m, exactly the Dow Jones consensus, with the 12-month unadjusted rate at 5.4% and core ex food, energy and trade services at +0.3% m/m / 4.7% y/y — in line in every column that mattered. What broke the tape was two commodity moves running in opposite directions at once. WTI crossed $100 for the first time since May, marking 99.99 at 9:26 AM ET after a $100.87 high, with Brent $105.29, both up roughly 4% on the vendor basis, after Iranian strikes damaged multiple U.S. aircraft at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan — one A-10 lost a wing, per CBS News — and President Trump warned Tehran “not to get cute” over Pickaxe Mountain. Simultaneously the entire metals complex was liquidated: Comex copper −4.60%, silver −5.40%, platinum −5.73%, palladium −5.25%, LME copper −3.22% after a $14,870.78 high, gold −1.66%. Energy exploding while metals are dumped is a growth-scare-plus-margin-call signature, not a reflation one, and FX corroborated it exactly: AUD/USD −0.86%, the worst major, USD/ZAR +1.00%, Bitcoin −2.77%. Rates went with the barrel, hard. The 10-year is 4.918%, +8.8 bp on the prior official 3:30 PM par close of 4.83%, the 2-year 4.512% (+8.2 bp) — and the September Fed hike probability jumped to 69.6% from the vendor's own 60.4% prior-day column, a 9.2-point repricing on an in-line inflation print. The December 2026 modal outcome flipped from one hike to two. What this hands the open: a market that has stopped treating the energy shock as a supply story and started treating it as a policy story, with VIX +7.2% at 17.65, Oracle and Adobe after the close, and CPI at 8:30 tomorrow. |
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| (a) Equity futures — overnight snapshot vs. the opening print |
| Instrument | 4:44 AM ET | Chg | %Chg | ~9:32 AM ET | Note | | S&P 500 futures (ESZ6) | 7,656.75 | +13.00 | +0.17% | 7,592.90 (−0.57%) | 0.74 pp round trip overnight → open | | Dow futures (YMZ6) | 52,567.00 | +142.00 | +0.27% | 52,102.80 (−0.53%) | Best overnight, still turned | | Nasdaq-100 futures (NQZ6) | 29,431.75 | −17.00 | −0.06% | — | Only major red overnight | | Russell 2000 futures (RTYZ6) | 2,925.40 | +2.40 | +0.08% | — | Small caps flat overnight |
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Arithmetic, shown. ES +13.00 on 7,656.75 implies a prior settle of 7,643.75; 13.00 ÷ 7,643.75 = +0.170%, matching the vendor's +0.17%. YM +142.00 on 52,567.00 implies 52,425.00; 142 ÷ 52,425 = +0.271%. NQ −17.00 on 29,431.75 implies 29,448.75; −17 ÷ 29,448.75 = −0.058%. RTY +2.40 on 2,925.40 implies 2,923.00; 2.40 ÷ 2,923 = +0.082%. All four reconcile to the second decimal.
Implied open, reconciled. The S&P 500 cash closed 7,636.49 on 9 September. The 9:32 AM cash print of 7,591.81 is 44.68 points / 0.59% below it; Investing.com's US 500 contract at 7,592.90 is 43.59 points / 0.57% below. The two bases agree to 1.1 points, inside the normal cash-versus-CFD basis. No fair-value adjustment is applied and none is asserted. |
| (b) Prior cash closes — the anchor (Wednesday 9 September) |
| Index | Close | Chg | %Chg | | S&P 500 | 7,636.49 | −37.03 | −0.48% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,380.66 | −405.41 | −0.77% | | Nasdaq Composite | 26,253.34 | −168.07 | −0.64% | | Nasdaq 100 | 29,421.55 | −86.15 | −0.29% | | Russell 2000 | 2,922.35 | −37.85 | −1.28% | | SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor) | 11,931.3 | +43.5 | +0.37% | | VIX | 16.46 | +0.74 | +4.71% |
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| (c) The cross-asset board at the open |
| Instrument | Level (~9:26–9:55 AM ET) | Chg vs prior close/settle | % | Note | | S&P 500 cash | 7,591.81 | −44.68 | −0.59% | 9:32 AM ET | | Nasdaq Composite | 26,032.67 | −220.67 | −0.84% | Growth leading lower | | VIX | 17.65 | +1.19 | +7.23% | Intraday high 17.77; low 16.29 | | UST 2-year | 4.512% | +8.2 bp | — | vs 3:30 PM par close 4.43% | | UST 5-year | 4.701% | +9.1 bp | — | Belly leads the cheapening | | UST 10-year | 4.918% | +8.8 bp | — | Fresh multi-year cheap | | UST 30-year | 5.347% | +6.7 bp | — | 20s30s re-inverted to −0.8 bp | | DXY | 99.11 | +0.300 | +0.30% | Broad risk-off dollar bid | | EUR/USD | 1.1601 | −0.0029 | −0.25% | Fell on an ECB hike | | USD/JPY | 154.25 | +0.74 | +0.48% | Yen gave back Wednesday's gain | | WTI (Oct, NYMEX) | $99.99 | +$2.84 | +2.92% | Intraday $100.87 — first $100 since May | | Brent (Nov, ICE) | $105.29 | +$3.54 | +3.48% | High $105.84 | | Gold (Comex Dec) | $4,386.79 | −$60.56 | −1.36% | Range $4,365.76–$4,476.05 | | Silver (Comex Dec) | $64.942 | −$2.983 | −4.39% | Low 64.460 vs high 68.558 | | Copper (Comex Dec) | $6.5718 | −$0.2865 | −4.18% | Off a $6.8888 high | | Bitcoin | 77,020 | −2,194 | −2.77% | Low 76,767 |
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| Two change bases are published for the commodity rows and the difference is not cosmetic. The column above measures against the settles this report published on 9 September (WTI $97.15, Brent $101.75, gold $4,447.35, silver $67.925, copper $6.8583). Investing.com's real-time board measures against its own prior marks and shows WTI +4.10%, Brent +4.03%, gold −1.66%, silver −5.40%, copper −4.60% — larger in every case. Both are printed rather than reconciled away; direction and ranking are identical on either basis. Worked reconciliation in the companion Data Notes. |
| (d) Global equities overnight |
| Index | Level | %Chg | Session | | Nikkei 225 | 65,270.95 | +0.20% | Closed at the session high; low 64,186.68 — a 1,084-pt range | | Kospi | 7,033.92 | −0.25% | Low 6,898.45; recovered 135 pts into the close | | Hang Seng | 24,954.47 | −1.27% | Lost 25,000; worst major ex-Indonesia | | Shanghai Composite | 3,934.40 | −0.43% | SZSE Component −0.77% — mainland split reopened | | Taiwan TAIEX | 46,940.49 | −0.51% | Followed the SOX's Wednesday lead only partially | | S&P/ASX 200 | 8,819.40 | −1.03% | The metals rout, directly | | Nifty 50 | 23,477.80 | +0.20% | Sensex +0.19%; recovered Wednesday's 0.86% fall | | Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,270.85 | −0.65% | Live, ~9:28 AM ET | | DAX | 25,427.48 | −0.50% | Live | | CAC 40 | 8,127.60 | −0.36% | Live | | FTSE 100 | 10,627.86 | −0.40% | Live |
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| Sources: Yahoo Finance futures board (4:44 AM ET); Investing.com major-indices, real-time-commodities and streaming-majors FX boards (9:26–9:32 AM ET); CNBC U.S. Treasurys board (~9:55 AM ET); U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Text View, September 2026 (official 9 September row); prior closes from this report's 9 September Closing Daily. |
2 · Overnight Hot Spots — ranked by tradability at today's open |
| 1. WTI printed $100 and the equity market finally treated it as a Fed problem rather than an energy story. [Commodities / Rates / Equities] — WTI October traded to $100.87 and marked 99.99 at 9:26 AM ET, its first hundred-dollar handle since May; Brent November $105.29 after a $105.84 high. On this report's settle basis that is +$2.84 / +2.92% for WTI and +$3.54 / +3.48% for Brent; on the vendor's own prior marks, +4.10% and +4.03%. The overnight catalyst is military, not inventory: Iranian strikes damaged multiple U.S. aircraft at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, with one A-10 Thunderbolt losing a wing and roughly eight F-15s lightly damaged, per CBS News, and President Trump warned Iran “not to get cute” about activity at the Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz. Trump separately told reporters oil “won't come down until after the midterms.” Forward hook: the transmission ran through the front end of the curve, not through energy equities — the 2-year cheapened 8.2 bp and the September hike probability rose 9.2 points on an in-line PPI. Watch whether XLE holds a bid with the index down 0.6%: green energy against a red tape confirms the supply read, red confirms demand destruction. Invalidation for the complex is a WTI close back under $97.15. | | 2. The metals complex was liquidated wholesale, and copper is the one to trade. [Commodities / Equities / FX] — Comex December copper −4.60% to 6.5718 off a 6.8888 high; LME three-month copper −3.22% to $14,305.85 after printing $14,870.78 — and LME copper had set an intraday all-time high of $14,694 on Tuesday, above the January 2026 record of $14,527.50. The metal made an all-time high Tuesday and gave back more than four percent by Thursday morning. It did not go alone: silver −5.40%, platinum −5.73% to 1,808.95, palladium −5.25%, zinc −2.62%, aluminium −1.65%, gold −1.66% with a $110 high-to-low range. Mechanism: positioning, not fundamentals — a record-chasing speculative long margined out on the morning a $100 oil print raises the discount rate. Freeport-McMoRan fell 8.8% and Southern Copper 7.1% pre-market on exactly this. Forward hook: Freeport's own sensitivity puts roughly $390m of annual EBITDA on each 10-cent move, so a 32-cent decline is about $1.2bn of run-rate EBITDA priced out in one session. Above $6.50 the miners are a gap-fill; below it the warehouse-squeeze narrative is dead. | | 3. PPI landed in line and the Fed path repriced 9 points hawkish anyway. [Rates / Equities] — August PPI +0.4% m/m against a +0.4% Dow Jones consensus; 12-month unadjusted final demand +5.4%; final demand less foods, energy and trade services +0.3% m/m and +4.7% y/y. Under the surface it is an energy print: final demand goods +1.1%, of which over three-quarters is energy at +4.2%, and diesel alone +24.1%, while final demand services rose only 0.1%. Yet the September 16 hike probability moved to 69.6% from the vendor's own prior-day 60.4% and from 50.4% a week ago — and the December 2026 mode flipped from one hike (33.5%) to two (44.1%). Diagnostic: the market is not repricing the inflation data, it is repricing the barrel that will be in next month's data. A +0.3% services print alongside a +24.1% diesel print is the cleanest evidence available that the pass-through has not started. Forward hook: CPI at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow, consensus +0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y — the number that either validates 69.6% or breaks it. | | 4. The ECB hiked into the same shock and the euro fell anyway. [FX / Rates / Equities] — the Governing Council raised all three key rates 25 bp at 8:15 AM ET — deposit facility to 2.50% from 2.25%, main refinancing to 2.65%, marginal lending to 2.90%, effective 16 September — exactly as priced, with LSEG showing a 100% probability going in. The statement said the Middle East conflict “continues to generate inflation pressures”; new staff projections put HICP at 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027, 2.1% in 2028 and growth at 0.9% / 1.4% / 1.5%. Euro-area August inflation was 3.3%, with energy at +14.3%. The tell: EUR/USD fell 0.25% to 1.1601 on the day its central bank delivered, and Bunds cheapened 4.3 bp to 3.481%. A currency that cannot rally on a delivered hike has read the growth projection rather than the rate. Second-order: the IBEX was the only major European index green (+0.08%) while the DAX fell 0.50% — periphery over core on a tightening day is unusual and worth carrying. | | 5. Cooper Companies is down 18% and it is the cleanest single-name signal of the morning. [Equities] — COO fell 18.1% pre-market after a disappointing strategic review, cut guidance, a revenue miss and a wave of downgrades. The reason this ranks fifth is the setup: this report recorded on Wednesday that COO fell 6.22% in the cash session ahead of its own after-close print — the market de-risked it by six percent before the number and it still lost another eighteen. Read-through: the medical-device and vision cohort trades off this, and it re-establishes the punish-the-blemish reaction function (§5). Anyone holding a name into tonight's Oracle and Adobe prints should mark that function first. | | 6. The 10-year is at 4.918% and the curve shape says path, not supply. [Rates] — against the official 3:30 PM ET par close the 2-year is +8.2 bp, the 5-year +9.1, the 7-year +9.4, the 10-year +8.8 and the 30-year +6.7. A belly-led bear flattening at the long end that steepens violently against bills: 3M10Y widened from +88 bp official to +97.7 bp live because the 3-month moved only 4.1 bp, while 2s30s flattened from +85 to +83.5 bp and 20s30s re-inverted to −0.8 bp from exactly 0. Bills barely moved — 1-month +3.3 bp, 3-month +4.1 — against 8–9 bp in coupons. Forward hook: Treasury's expanded buyback in the 10-to-20-year sector, up to $6bn, runs today; the 20-year is the tenor to watch into it, and it is underperforming rather than front-run. | | 7. Oracle reports tonight and the options market is pricing an 11% move. [Equities] — ORCL reports after the close with the call at 5:00 PM ET; consensus non-GAAP EPS ~$1.74 (+18.4% y/y) on revenue ~$19.13bn (+28.1%), and the number that matters is the $638bn remaining performance obligation and whether the 58–64% cloud-order growth guide converts against the capex line. Adobe follows with consensus adjusted EPS $6.09 on revenue ~$6.7bn against guidance of $6.67–6.72bn and $6.05–6.10, implied move about 5.4%. Why it ranks here: Wednesday's index move was Meta +6.55% on an AI monetisation story; Oracle reports the spending side of the same ledger. Micron was already −3.03% and SanDisk −2.24% at the open. | | 8. The dollar's rally is a commodity-currency rout, and it names the trade. [FX / Commodities] — DXY +0.30% to 99.11, but the distribution is the information: AUD/USD −0.86% to 0.7157, the worst major and printing on its low, NZD/USD −0.70%, USD/ZAR +1.00%, USD/SEK +1.00%, USD/MXN +0.67%. Set that against EUR/USD −0.25% and GBP/USD −0.34%. Mechanism, named: this is not a dollar bid, it is a base-metals and PGM funding unwind — the Australian dollar is the copper proxy, the rand the platinum-palladium proxy, and platinum fell 5.73% while palladium fell 5.25%. Equity translation: negative for the S&P's foreign-revenue cohort and EM/commodity beta, but not the dollar-strength-on-U.S.-growth configuration that supports domestic cyclicals. | | 9. Chemours, DuPont and Corteva settled PFAS for $455m. [Equities] — CC +6.6% pre-market after the three announced a $455m settlement resolving long-standing PFAS contamination litigation in North Carolina. Tail-risk removal rather than an earnings event. Forward hook: watch whether DD and CTVA — the co-payers — trade as relieved defendants or as cash-out payers, because they cannot be both. CC is not an S&P 500 member; DD and CTVA are. | | 10. Fox +4.5% on Roku deal comments, SS&C +5% on a UBS target raise. [Equities] — FOXA +4.5% on reassuring management commentary on the pending $22bn Roku acquisition — a deal-spread trade, so watch FOXA against ROKU. SSNC +5.0% after UBS raised its target to $101 from $99, Buy maintained; a 2.1% target increase producing a 5% move is a positioning tell, and the kind of gap that fades by 10:30. | | 11. Macy's beat, raised, and fell. [Equities] — M −1.4% pre-market on adjusted EPS $0.63 against $0.37 consensus, net sales +1.1% to $4.87bn versus $4.81bn, comps +2.7%, and a raised full-year outlook. It fell anyway because $116m of tariff refunds contributed 23 cents and because Bloomingdale's comps +11.3% and Bluemercury +6.2% mask a namesake banner at +1.1%. Full detail in (§5). | | 12. SpaceX unlocked 319m shares and is holding better than it should. [Equities] — SPCX −0.52% to $146.78 pre-market as up to 319 million locked-up shares became eligible, after closing down nearly 4% Wednesday on 120.59m shares. It debuted at $135 on 12 June and hit $225.64 on 16 June. The tell: the supply was traded ahead of the date, not on it — though it was −1.68% twenty minutes after the open. |
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3 · Global Markets Overnight — Asia & Europe |
| Asia — closes |
| Index | Close | %Chg | Catalyst | | Nikkei 225 | 65,270.95 | +0.20% | Closed at the session high after a 64,186.68 low — a 1,084-point range | | Kospi | 7,033.92 | −0.25% | Low 6,898.45; recovered 135 points into the close | | Taiwan TAIEX | 46,940.49 | −0.51% | Semis followed the SOX's Wednesday lead only partially | | Hang Seng | 24,954.47 | −1.27% | Lost 25,000; worst major in the region ex-Indonesia | | Shanghai Composite | 3,934.40 | −0.43% | Mainland split reopened after one session's truce | | SZSE Component | 13,617.67 | −0.77% | Growth underperformed large-cap again | | China A50 | 14,652.66 | −0.33% | — | | S&P/ASX 200 | 8,819.40 | −1.03% | The metals rout, directly — the most resource-heavy developed index | | Nifty 50 | 23,477.80 | +0.20% | Sensex +0.19%; recovered Wednesday's 0.86% fall | | IDX Composite | 6,589.34 | −1.33% | Worst in the region | | Karachi 100 | 169,428.19 | −1.46% | — |
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| The Asian session had one clean signal and it was the ASX. Australia's 1.03% decline against Japan's +0.20% is the metals liquidation expressed in equity form: the ASX 200 carries the highest resource weight of any developed index, and copper, zinc, aluminium and the PGMs all fell hard across the Asian and European windows. The mainland split this report tracked for a fortnight and saw close on Wednesday has reopened — Shanghai −0.43% against the SZSE Component −0.77%. Japan is the outlier that matters: the Nikkei closed at its session high having traded 1,084 points lower intraday, on the day USD/JPY rose 0.48% to 154.25 and gave back Wednesday's yen strength. A market that closes on its high on a weakening currency, eight days before the 18 September Bank of Japan decision, is trading the exporter translation, not the domestic economy. |
| Europe — live at ~9:28 AM ET |
| Index | Level | %Chg | Index | Level | %Chg | | Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,270.85 | −0.65% | IBEX 35 | 19,696.25 | +0.08% | | DAX | 25,427.48 | −0.50% | FTSE MIB | 51,831.50 | −0.08% | | CAC 40 | 8,127.60 | −0.36% | SMI | 13,790.10 | −0.11% | | FTSE 100 | 10,627.86 | −0.40% | AEX | 1,096.09 | −0.53% | | BEL 20 | 5,704.83 | −0.58% | MSCI World | 4,927.76 | −0.22% |
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| Europe took the ECB hike as delivered and sold the growth forecast. Every major index is red except the IBEX, and the ordering — Euro Stoxx 50 −0.65% worst, IBEX +0.08% and FTSE MIB −0.08% best — is periphery over core, the opposite of what a tightening cycle usually produces. The mechanism is the projection round: 0.9% growth in 2026 against 3.0% inflation is a stagflationary staff forecast, and the core indices carry the export and industrial weight a 0.9% year damages most. |
| Global rates |
| Benchmark | Yield | Chg | Benchmark | Yield | Chg | | UST 10Y | 4.918% | +7.8 bp | Gilt 2Y | 4.807% | +9.1 bp | | Bund 10Y | 3.481% | +4.3 bp | Gilt 5Y | 4.892% | +9.6 bp | | German 30Y | 3.908% | +3.3 bp | Gilt 10Y | 5.338% | +7.0 bp | | German 20Y | 3.857% | +3.9 bp | Gilt 30Y | 5.929% | +4.1 bp |
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| The imported-duration question answers itself this morning: it is not imported. The U.S. 10-year cheapened 7.8 bp on CNBC's basis and 8.8 bp against the official par close, against 4.3 bp in Bunds — the U.S. moved roughly twice the core European market on the day the ECB actually hiked. That is a domestic repricing driven by the barrel and the Fed path, not a spillover. Gilts are the exception and moved for their own reason: 2-year +9.1 bp and 5-year +9.6 against the 30-year +4.1 is a front-led UK cheapening ahead of the 17 September Bank of England decision. |
| What this hands the U.S. open. A barrel through $100 that the rates market has decided is a Fed problem; a metals complex in outright liquidation that puts the miners, the resource currencies and the industrial-cyclical cohort on the wrong side of the tape; a European central bank that hiked and could not lift its own currency; and a U.S. curve cheapening twice as fast as the German one on a day Germany's central bank tightened. By sector: energy is the only long the overnight supports, materials and mining the clearest short, and anything with duration — small caps, real estate, utilities, unprofitable growth — carries a 9 bp belly move against it before the bell. |
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4 · Pre-Market Movers & Single-Name Catalysts |
| Quote basis, stated. Percentages marked [pm] are pre-market prints captured from TheStreet's live blog between 7:05 and 9:09 AM ET. Percentages marked [open] are early cash-session prints from the Investing.com movers board at ~9:32 AM ET. The two are not interchangeable and are never mixed within a line. |
Higher | Chemours (CC) +6.6% [pm] — with DuPont (DD) and Corteva (CTVA), announced a $455m settlement resolving long-standing PFAS contamination litigation in North Carolina. Tail-risk removal, no earnings component. Non-S&P 500 flag: CC is not a member; DD and CTVA are. | | SS&C Technologies (SSNC) +5.0% [pm] — UBS raised its price target to $101 from $99, maintaining Buy. A 2.1% target increase against a 5% move; the gap is positioning, not valuation. | | Fox Corp (FOXA) +4.5% [pm] — reassuring management commentary on the pending $22bn Roku acquisition. Trade the FOXA/ROKU spread, not the tape. | | Apple (AAPL) +0.41% [open] at $316.64 — a modest bid the session after the Ternus product event produced a 2.98% intraday range and a 0.28% decline. The notable thing is that Apple is green while the index is not. |
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Lower | Cooper Companies (COO) −18.1% [pm] — disappointing strategic review, cut guidance, revenue miss, multiple downgrades, after the stock had already fallen 6.22% in Wednesday's cash session into its own print. The worst two-session sequence on the board. | | Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) −8.8% [pm] — copper down 4.6% from a record set two sessions ago. On management's own sensitivity, roughly $390m of annual EBITDA per 10 cents, so a 32-cent move is ~$1.2bn of run-rate EBITDA. | | Southern Copper (SCCO) −7.1% [pm] — same trade, sector-wide profit-taking. | | Micron (MU) −3.03% [open] at $996.65 — through the $1,000 handle, having closed +2.75% at $1,027.77 Wednesday on 23.81m shares. A 5.8-point swing from Wednesday's close to Thursday's open in the highest-beta AI memory name is the clearest read-across risk into tonight's Oracle print. | | SanDisk (SNDK) −2.24% [open] at $1,724.60 — same complex, same direction, after closing +1.51%. | | Tesla (TSLA) −2.01% [open] at $360.40 — high-beta consumer cyclical against a 9 bp belly move. | | Nvidia (NVDA) −1.33% [open] at $220.46 — a second consecutive decline after Wednesday's −0.91%. | | SpaceX (SPCX) −0.52% [pm] / −1.68% [open] at $145.07 — 319m share lock-up expiry. Note the drift: half a percent pre-market became 1.7% after the open. | | Macy's (M) −1.4% [pm] — see (§5); a beat-and-raise sold on composition. | | Meta (META) −0.34% [open] at $651.50 — giving back a fraction of Wednesday's +6.55%. The Muse trade is holding, which is itself the signal. |
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| After-hours → pre-market drift, where it matters |
| SpaceX is the cleanest example on the board. A 319m-share unlock priced at −0.52% pre-market and −1.68% twenty minutes after the open — the fade ran the wrong way for the pre-market buyer. Cooper Companies ran the other way: the cash session took 6.22% out before the print and the pre-market took a further 18.1%, so the pre-market did not fade the after-hours reaction, it extended it. Together they describe a tape discriminating between supply events, which it forgives, and guidance events, which it does not. |
| Analyst and corporate actions |
| UBS on SS&C Technologies (SSNC): price target $101 from $99, Buy maintained. No upside percentage is asserted — no same-session SSNC close was independently captured. The 5% pre-market move materially outruns the 2.1% target change. | | Chemours / DuPont / Corteva: $455m PFAS settlement, North Carolina. | | Fox Corp / Roku: $22bn acquisition, management commentary reaffirming. | | SpaceX: 319m shares off lock-up, 90 days post-IPO; a Falcon 9 national-security launch for the Space Force is scheduled this morning. | | Cooper Companies: strategic review, guidance cut, multiple downgrades — firm names not independently captured this session and therefore not asserted. | | Carried from Wednesday and still live: Enbridge / Tallgrass ($2.55bn crude business); Dell's $4bn bond sale. |
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| Liquidity caveat. Every [pm] percentage is a pre-market print on thin size. The stockanalysis.com premarket screener — normally this report's breadth source — served a Sep 9 cached page during this session's capture and was discarded rather than used; that is the cached-session trap the playbook warns about, and it is why the mover lists above are narrower than a normal edition. Detail in the companion Data Notes. |
5 · Overnight Earnings Scorecard |
| Macy's (M) — not an S&P 500 member. Reported before the open. |
| Metric | Actual | Consensus | Prior year | | Adjusted EPS | $0.63 | $0.37 | $0.35 | | Net sales | $4.87bn (+1.1%) | $4.81bn | — | | Comparable sales | +2.7% | — | — | | FY adj. EPS guide | $2.15–2.35 | prior guide $2.00–2.20 | — | | FY revenue guide | $21.68–21.83bn | prior guide $21.50–21.75bn | — | | Pre-market reaction | −1.4% | — | — |
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| The read-through, and it is not the beat. Macy's beat by 26 cents and raised both ends of both ranges, and the stock fell. $116m of tariff refunds contributed 23 cents to the quarter, with roughly 18 cents embedded in the raised outlook — so the raise is substantially a one-off customs recovery, and the underlying beat is nearer 40 cents against 37. And the composition: Bloomingdale's comps +11.3% and Bluemercury +6.2% against the namesake Macy's banner at +1.1%. Trades off this: the department-store and mid-tier apparel cohort (KSS, JWN, DDS among non-members) and the index's tariff-exposed retail names. |
| No S&P 500 member reported after Wednesday's close. Cooper Companies (COO) reported after the close on 9 September and its reaction — −18.1% pre-market, on top of a 6.22% cash-session decline before the print — is carried in (§2) and (§4) rather than duplicated here. |
| Aggregate scorecard. With one non-member reporter in the window, no meaningful beat rate or blended-growth figure can be computed for this session, and none is asserted. The reaction function is the durable observation: across the sessions this report has covered, guidance was punished 17.39% one session, bought back 2.56% the next, de-risked 6.22% ahead of a print on the third, and punished a further 18.1% on the fourth. The tape is paying nothing for beats and charging full price for blemishes — the frame to carry into tonight's Oracle, Adobe and Copart prints. |
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6 · U.S. Treasury Par Curve & Rates |
| (a) Official par curve — prior session's 3:30 PM ET close (9 September 2026) |
| Tenor | 9 Sep | 1-Day | 1-Week | | 1 Mo | 3.81% | 0 bp | −2 bp | | 3 Mo | 3.95% | +1 bp | +6 bp | | 1 Yr | 4.17% | +2 bp | +6 bp | | 2 Yr | 4.43% | +4 bp | +9 bp | | 3 Yr | 4.49% | +5 bp | +8 bp | | 5 Yr | 4.61% | +4 bp | +9 bp | | 7 Yr | 4.71% | +3 bp | +8 bp | | 10 Yr | 4.83% | +3 bp | +6 bp | | 20 Yr | 5.28% | +2 bp | +3 bp | | 30 Yr | 5.28% | +3 bp | +3 bp |
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| Source: U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates, Text View for September 2026, re-read this session. 1-day versus the 8 September official row; 1-week versus the 3 September row. The 10 September row does not publish until after this evening's 3:30 PM snapshot, so the official curve is Wednesday's and the overnight move is in block (b). Treasury yields are coloured inverted throughout: up = red, down = green. |
| (b) Live early-session block — the overnight move |
| Tenor | Live yield | vs official par close | Vendor's own chg | | 1 Mo | 3.756% | −5.4 bp | +3.3 bp | | 3 Mo | 3.941% | −0.9 bp | +4.1 bp | | 1 Yr | 4.242% | +7.2 bp | +7.5 bp | | 2 Yr | 4.512% | +8.2 bp | +8.5 bp | | 3 Yr | 4.607% | +11.7 bp | +8.6 bp | | 5 Yr | 4.701% | +9.1 bp | +8.8 bp | | 7 Yr | 4.804% | +9.4 bp | +8.5 bp | | 10 Yr | 4.918% | +8.8 bp | +7.8 bp | | 20 Yr | 5.355% | +7.5 bp | +6.7 bp | | 30 Yr | 5.347% | +6.7 bp | +6.1 bp |
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Source: CNBC U.S. Treasurys board, ~9:55 AM ET. The third column is this report's own calculation against the official 3:30 PM par close; the fourth is the vendor's own change from its own prior mark.
The 1-month and 3-month rows show negative changes against the official par close while the vendor's column shows them positive. That is a basis difference, not a contradiction: Treasury's 3:30 PM par series and CNBC's bill convention diverge by roughly 5 bp at one month. The coupon rows, where the conventions converge, agree to within 0.3–0.7 bp at every tenor except the 3-year, where the 3.1 bp divergence is flagged and carried rather than smoothed. |
| (c) Spreads |
| Spread | Official 9 Sep | 1-Day | 1-Week | Live ~9:55 AM | Overnight chg | | 2s10s | +40 bp | −1 bp | −3 bp | +40.6 bp | +0.6 bp | | 3M10Y | +88 bp | +2 bp | 0 bp | +97.7 bp | +9.7 bp | | 2s30s | +85 bp | −1 bp | −6 bp | +83.5 bp | −1.5 bp | | 20s30s | 0 bp | +1 bp | 0 bp | −0.8 bp | −0.8 bp |
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The read: a belly-led bear flattening at the long end that steepens violently against bills — and it is a barrel-and-Fed move, not a supply move. The diagnostic is the ordering. The 5-year and 7-year cheapened most (+9.1 and +9.4 bp), the 2-year +8.2 and the 30-year least at +6.7, while the bills went essentially nowhere — the 3-month moved 4.1 bp on its own basis against 8–9 bp in the coupons. 3M10Y widening 9.7 bp in one overnight session is the largest move on this table, and a curve that steepens 3M10Y while flattening 2s30s is repricing the path rather than the destination — corroborated independently in (§8), where the September meeting moved 9.2 points and the December mode flipped a bucket. Wednesday's move was supply (a tailing auction, a disappointing buyback bucket); Thursday's is policy, and the two look different: Wednesday's 2s10s flattened 1 bp with 3M10Y +2, Thursday's has 2s10s essentially unchanged with 3M10Y +9.7.
The 20s30s inversion is back and it took one session. Wednesday's official row printed both tenors at exactly 5.28%, closing an inversion this report had tracked for nine sessions. This morning the 20-year is 5.355% and the 30-year 5.347%, so the spread is −0.8 bp and the position has given the gain straight back. The mechanism is today's operation: the 20-year is the tenor the buyback bucket names, and it is underperforming into it rather than outperforming — the opposite of a front-run, and worth watching for what it says about dealer inventory. |
|
| (d) Today's supply and Fed operations |
| Treasury buyback, 10-to-20-year sector, up to $6bn — the expanded liquidity-support operation whose bucket disappointed the long end on Wednesday. A mid-session event; the 20-year clears through it. | | No coupon auction today. Wednesday's 10-year stopped at 4.834% against 4.683% at the prior auction — 15.1 bp of concession in a month — and that concession is the anchor for how this morning's 4.918% should be read. | | No Federal Reserve speakers were independently confirmed for today in this session's capture and none are asserted. The FOMC blackout period begins Saturday 12 September ahead of the 16–17 September meeting, so any Fed commentary today is the last before the decision. |
|
7 · U.S. Macroeconomic Calendar |
| ★ TODAY — Thursday, September 10 |
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| Time ET | Release | Actual | Consensus | Sens. | What it does | | 08:15 | ECB decision | +25 bp: dep 2.50%, refi 2.65% | +25 bp | High | RELEASED. Delivered as priced; EUR/USD fell 0.25% anyway | | 08:30 | Producer Price Index (Aug) | +0.4% m/m; +5.4% y/y | +0.4% | High | RELEASED — in line. Did not stop a 9.2-pt hawkish repricing | | 08:30 | PPI ex food, energy, trade | +0.3% m/m; +4.7% y/y | +0.3% | High | RELEASED. Services only +0.1% — pass-through has not started | | 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims (wk 9/5) | not asserted — see note | 205K | High | RELEASED. Vendor conflict unresolved | | 08:30 | Continuing Claims (wk 8/29) | not asserted | 1,780K | Medium | Labour-side check only | | 10:00 | NAR Existing Home Sales (Aug) | — | 3.97m | Medium | AHEAD. A miss with the 10Y at 4.92% hits ITB, XHB, rate-sensitive small caps | | 10:30 | EIA Natural Gas Storage | — | — | Low | Nat gas −1.24%, the outlier in a bid energy complex | | 12:00 | EIA Petroleum Status Report | — | — | Medium | The session's live risk. With WTI at $100.87 intraday, a build is the only bearish catalyst on the calendar | | — | Treasury buyback, 10–20Y, up to $6bn | — | — | High | Mid-session; the 20-year clears through it |
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The 8:30 block was the morning's gap risk and it has already landed. Three High-sensitivity releases and a foreign central bank decision all cleared before the open, which is why the (§1) dashboard shows the tape after the event rather than into it. The important observation is that the data was in line and the market repriced hawkishly regardless — see (§8).
Jobless claims: an unresolved vendor conflict, stated rather than papered over. The 8:30 release was published, but this session obtained two irreconcilable readings and could not break the tie against a primary source before the capture window closed. One vendor reported initial claims for the week ended 5 September at 206K against a 207K prior; another reported 230K against a 230K consensus — a figure inconsistent with the 205K consensus and 206K prior this report published Wednesday and with the four-week average of 207,250. The Department of Labor's own release PDF still served the 3 September edition at capture time. Because a primary source and one alternative genuinely conflict, no actual figure is asserted for initial or continuing claims in this edition. The 206K reading is the more plausible on prior-consistency grounds and is noted as such, but it is not published as fact. |
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| Overnight global data already released |
| Euro area: ECB raised all three key rates 25 bp — deposit 2.50%, main refinancing 2.65%, marginal lending 2.90%, effective 16 September. Staff projections: HICP 3.0% / 2.5% / 2.1% for 2026–28; growth 0.9% / 1.4% / 1.5%. August euro-area inflation 3.3% with energy +14.3%. Reaction: EUR/USD −0.25%, Bunds +4.3 bp, Euro Stoxx 50 −0.65%. |
| Rest of this week and next week |
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| Date | Time ET | Release | Consensus | Sensitivity | | Fri 9/11 | 08:30 | Consumer Price Index | +0.4% m/m, 3.4% y/y | Very high | | Fri 9/11 | 10:00 | Michigan Consumer Survey (Prelim) | 51.4 | Medium | | Mon 9/14 | — | No release on the calendar | — | — | | Tue 9/15 | 08:30 | Empire State Manufacturing | — | Medium | | Wed 9/16 | 08:30 | Advance Retail Sales | No verified consensus | High | | Wed 9/16 | 08:30 | Import & Export Prices | — | Medium | | Wed 9/16 | — | FOMC meeting begins (two days) | — | Very high | | Thu 9/17 | 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | High | | Thu 9/17 | 08:30 | Housing Starts & Building Permits | — | Medium | | Thu 9/17 | 14:00 | FOMC decision, projections, press conference | — | Very high | | Fri 9/18 | 09:15 | Industrial Production | — | Medium |
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| The look-ahead, and the asymmetry has inverted since Wednesday. Twenty-four hours ago this report wrote that a market pricing a 60.2% September hike while the whole coupon curve cheapened was “a defensible view for one session and an expensive one for three.” It lasted one session. The September hike is now 69.6%, December's modal outcome has moved from one hike to two, and the repricing happened on an in-line PPI — which means the market did it on the barrel, not on the data. CPI tomorrow at 8:30, consensus +0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y, now carries materially more downside risk to bonds than it did before this morning, because the August survey period closed before WTI's move through $100 and before the +24.1% diesel print showed up in producer prices. A +0.4% CPI validates 69.6% and probably extends it; a +0.3% does not undo a barrel 4% higher this morning. The genuinely dangerous configuration is a soft CPI with a firm barrel, because it leaves the Fed hiking into a supply shock it cannot influence — and that is the scenario neither the front end nor the equity market is priced for. Then retail sales on the 16th, the morning the Committee convenes, and the decision at 14:00 on the 17th, with blackout beginning Saturday. |
|
8 · Fed Funds Futures & Rate Path |
Current target range: 3.50%–3.75%. An in-line PPI, a $100 barrel and a metals crash moved the September meeting 9.2 points and flipped the December mode.
Source: Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor Tool, all three meeting cards read this session and vendor-timestamped at 08:55 AM EDT, 10 September 2026. The CME FedWatch four-column Compare tab could not be reached this session — the page served a registration gate rather than the probability table — so the CME-versus-Investing.com reconciliation this report normally publishes is not available for this edition and the Investing.com card is the sole vendor. Recorded as a gap in the companion Data Notes rather than filled with an estimate. |
| (a) Current-year meeting distributions — current [prior day] [prior week] |
| Meeting | Future | 3.50–3.75 (hold) | 3.75–4.00 (+25) | 4.00–4.25 (+50) | 4.25–4.50 (+75) | Cum. above | Cum. below | | Sep 16 | 96.290 | 30.4% [39.6] [49.6] | 69.6% [60.4] [50.4] | 0.0% | 0.0% | 69.6% | 0.0% | | Oct 28 | 96.185 | 20.0% [28.7] [35.9] | 56.1% [54.7] [50.2] | 24.0% [16.7] [13.9] | 0.0% | 80.1% | 0.0% | | Dec 9 | 96.000 | 7.5% [12.1] [17.0] | 33.5% [39.6] [42.7] | 44.1% [38.6] [33.0] | 15.0% [9.6] [7.3] | 92.6% | 0.0% |
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| Rounding, transparently. Every figure is at the vendor's own one-decimal precision. The September row sums to exactly 100.0%. The October and December current columns sum to 100.1%; December's prior-day column sums to 99.9%. These are rounding artefacts of one-decimal publication, not missing mass; no cell has been rescaled. Cells shown as 0.0% are ranges the vendor's card publishes as zero or omits, which under the methodology means a probability below the rounding floor. |
| The single most important number in this report is the December mode, and it flipped. For every edition of this table in the reporting window, one hike (3.75–4.00) has been the December 2026 modal outcome. This morning two hikes (4.00–4.25) leads at 44.1% against 33.5% — a 10.6-point gap in favour of the outcome that was 1.0 point behind on the vendor's own prior-day column (38.6% against 39.6%). That is an 11.6-point swing in the relative standing of the two leading outcomes in one overnight session (from −1.0 to +10.6). This report has tracked the compression of that gap for four consecutive sessions — 9.9 points, then 5.6, then 4.7, then 1.4 — and wrote on Wednesday that the December mode was “within 1.4 points of losing.” It lost. |
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One-day and one-week momentum, and it is uniformly hawkish across the strip. The September hike moved to 69.6% from 60.4%, a +9.2 point day and +19.2 points on the week from 50.4%. October's cumulative-above rose to 80.1% from 71.4% (+8.7) and December's to 92.6% from 87.8% (+4.8). Note the shape: the front repriced roughly twice as hard as the back, the mirror image of Wednesday, when the 2027 strip cheapened three times as fast as the front. A market that adds nine points to the next meeting and five to December is pricing the timing of a hike it had already decided was coming, not adding to the terminal rate. The contracts corroborate: ZQU6 at 96.290 is 1.0 bp cheaper than Wednesday's 96.300, and ZQZ6 at 96.000 is 4.5 bp cheaper than 96.045. Because the 16 September meeting sits mid-month, only about 47% of the September contract's averaging period is affected, so one basis point of ZQU6 is worth roughly ten percentage points of hike probability — and 1.0 bp of contract move against a 9.2-point probability move reconciles almost exactly.
The tails were bought again and harder. October's +50 bucket rose to 24.0% from 16.7% (+7.3 points) and December's +75 to 15.0% from 9.6% (+5.4) — 12.7 points of upper-tail mass added in a single session, against 3.2 on Wednesday and 1.3 on Tuesday. Meanwhile the probability of a cut at any 2026 meeting remains 0.0% and the December hold bucket has fallen to 7.5% from 17.0% a week ago. A distribution that removes ten points from “no hikes at all” and adds thirteen to the upper tail inside five sessions is not drifting; it is repricing a regime. |
| (b) Next-year path — not captured this session |
| The 2027 meeting cards require an individual expansion click per meeting and the page twice returned renderer timeouts during a capture window already compressed by the late run start. Rather than carry Wednesday's 2027 table forward under today's date — which would misrepresent a strip that has demonstrably moved — the 2027 modal-range path and the 2027 year-end ladder are omitted from this edition. For reference only, Wednesday's capture had all eight 2027 meetings modal at 4.00–4.25 except September and October 2027 at 4.25–4.50, with December 2027 cumulative-above at 95.7%; given this morning's uniform hawkish shift that figure is a floor, not a current reading, and it is not published as one. |
| (c) Year-end 2026 probability ladder — the 9 December meeting |
| Outcome | Range | Probability | | −75 bp | 2.75–3.00 | 0.0% | | −50 bp | 3.00–3.25 | 0.0% | | −25 bp | 3.25–3.50 | 0.0% | | Hold | 3.50–3.75 | 7.5% | | +25 bp | 3.75–4.00 | 33.5% | | +50 bp | 4.00–4.25 | 44.1% | | +75 bp | 4.25–4.50 | 15.0% | | +100 bp and beyond | 4.50 and higher | 0.0% |
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| Cumulative above the current range: 92.6%. Cumulative below: 0.0%. Sum: 100.1% (rounding). |
| (d) Interpretation. First, how much repriced overnight: essentially all of it. Nine points at September, nearly nine at October, five at December, a mode change and 12.7 points of new upper tail — on a morning whose only U.S. data was an in-line PPI. The repricing is the barrel. Second, the mechanism is visible in the PPI internals: final demand goods +1.1% with energy +4.2% and diesel +24.1%, against final demand services at +0.1%. The pipeline pressure is entirely energy and it has not reached services, which is precisely why the market is pricing the Fed to act pre-emptively. Third, the curve agrees: (§6) shows 3M10Y steepening 9.7 bp while 2s30s flattens — a path repricing, not a term-premium one. Fourth, the practical trade tied to the next catalyst. With September at 69.6%, the asymmetry around CPI at 8:30 tomorrow is poor for anyone paying up for the hike now: an in-line +0.4% is largely in the price, while a +0.3% print would take the meeting back toward 55–60% and produce a violent bull-steepening from a market carrying 12.7 points of freshly-bought upper tail. The cleaner expression of the hawkish view is not more September, it is December — where two hikes only just became the mode at 44.1% and where a barrel that stays above $100 through the survey period has months to work. Sizing note in (§12). |
|
9 · FX Market |
| Pair | Level | Chg | %Chg | Overnight range | Driver | | DXY | 99.11 | +0.300 | +0.30% | — | Risk-off bid, commodity-currency led | | EUR/USD | 1.1601 | −0.0029 | −0.25% | 1.1592–1.1642 | Fell on a delivered ECB hike | | USD/JPY | 154.25 | +0.74 | +0.48% | 153.30–154.67 | Yen gave back Wednesday's gain; UST 10Y 4.92% | | GBP/USD | 1.3498 | −0.0046 | −0.34% | 1.3491–1.3561 | Gilt front end +9.1 bp and sterling still fell | | USD/CHF | 0.8132 | +0.0031 | +0.38% | 0.8084–0.8148 | Franc offered on a risk-off morning | | USD/CAD | 1.3831 | +0.0027 | +0.20% | 1.3798–1.3835 | CAD weak against a $100 barrel | | AUD/USD | 0.7157 | −0.0062 | −0.86% | 0.7157–0.7224 | Worst major; on its low. The copper proxy | | NZD/USD | 0.5797 | −0.0041 | −0.70% | 0.5798–0.5857 | Second-worst; same trade | | USD/ZAR | 16.1892 | +0.1600 | +1.00% | 16.0104–16.2051 | The PGM proxy: platinum −5.73%, palladium −5.25% | | USD/SEK | 9.6683 | +0.0961 | +1.00% | 9.5797–9.6834 | Base-metals and European cyclical beta | | USD/MXN | 16.9949 | +0.1133 | +0.67% | 16.8859–17.0097 | Peso gave back Wednesday's barrel-driven strength | | USD/INR | 95.571 | +0.412 | +0.43% | 95.065–95.646 | Largest regional crude importer, again weakest | | USD/CNY | 6.7062 | −0.0014 | −0.02% | 6.7061–6.7089 | The most inert cross on the board, third session | | USD/RUB | 84.0455 | −1.0205 | −1.20% | 83.4681–85.4811 | Rouble firm on the barrel | | Bitcoin | 77,020 | −2,194 | −2.77% | 76,767–79,479 | Ether −3.24% |
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| Source: Investing.com streaming majors board, 9:31 AM ET. Quote basis: USD per unit for EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD; units per USD for JPY, CHF, CAD, INR, CNY, MXN, ZAR, SEK, RUB. Change columns are the vendor's own, measured from its prior mark. |
The take: this is not a dollar rally, it is a commodity-currency rout wearing a dollar rally's clothes. DXY rose 0.30% but the dispersion is four times that. AUD/USD fell 0.86% and is printing on its session low of 0.7157, having traded 0.7224; USD/ZAR rose a full percent; USD/SEK rose a full percent. Against that, EUR/USD fell only 0.25% and GBP/USD 0.34% — the European majors barely moved. The pairs that moved are, without exception, the pairs with base-metals and platinum-group exposure, on the morning copper fell 4.6% off a Tuesday record, platinum 5.73% and palladium 5.25%. That is a positioning unwind in the metals complex expressing itself in currency, and reading it as dollar strength would put a trader in the wrong equity cohort entirely.
The second-order cross is EUR/USD and it is the one to think about. The ECB delivered a 25 bp hike at 8:15 and the euro fell. Wednesday the euro rose 0.10% on a session Bunds cheapened 8.2 bp into the meeting; today it fell 0.25% on the delivery. A currency that rallies on anticipation and falls on confirmation has priced the carry and is now trading the growth forecast — and the forecast was 0.9% for 2026 against 3.0% inflation. Equity translation: a firmer dollar is a headwind for the S&P's foreign-revenue cohort and the multinational-heavy staples and technology names, and it compounds rather than offsets the metals move for materials. USD/JPY at 154.25, up 0.48%, is the one cross that is a rates story rather than a commodity one — it is following the 4.918% ten-year, and the 18 September Bank of Japan decision is eight days out. |
|
10 · Commodities |
| Contract | Price | vs 9 Sep settle | % | Vendor % | Range | Driver | | WTI (Oct) | $99.99 | +$2.84 | +2.92% | +4.10% | 95.39–100.87 | First $100 handle since May | | Brent (Nov) | $105.29 | +$3.54 | +3.48% | +4.03% | 100.21–105.84 | Iran strikes on a U.S. base in Jordan | | Heating oil (Oct) | $4.9482 | +$0.1459 | +3.04% | +3.07% | 4.7078–4.9521 | Diesel +24.1% in the August PPI | | Gasoline RBOB (Oct) | $3.3218 | +$0.0982 | +3.05% | +3.46% | 3.1943–3.3371 | Followed crude this time | | Natural gas (Oct) | $2.787 | −$0.018 | −0.64% | −1.24% | 2.767–2.814 | The only red energy contract | | Copper (Comex Dec) | $6.5718 | −$0.2865 | −4.18% | −4.60% | 6.5425–6.8888 | Off Tuesday's all-time high | | Silver (Comex Dec) | $64.942 | −$2.983 | −4.39% | −5.40% | 64.460–68.558 | A $4.10 range, 6% of the contract | | Gold (Comex Dec) | $4,386.79 | −$60.56 | −1.36% | −1.66% | 4,365.76–4,476.05 | Failed at $4,476 for a third session | | Platinum (Oct) | $1,808.95 | — | — | −5.73% | 1,805.35–1,913.20 | Worst on the board | | Palladium (Dec) | $1,308.50 | — | — | −5.25% | 1,305.25–1,375.50 | PGM complex liquidated together | | LME copper (3M) | $14,305.85 | — | — | −3.22% | 14,234.90–14,870.78 | Record $14,694 set Tuesday | | LME zinc | $3,931.05 | — | — | −2.62% | 3,914.90–4,055.60 | — | | LME aluminium | $3,306.50 | — | — | −1.65% | 3,294.98–3,352.53 | — | | Dutch TTF gas (Oct) | €82.175 | — | — | +3.70% | 78.170–83.060 | European energy followed crude |
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| Front-month futures unless stated. WTI, RBOB, heating oil and natural gas on the October contract; gold, silver, copper and palladium on December; platinum on October; Brent on November. Captured from the Investing.com real-time futures board at 9:26–9:27 AM ET. Two change bases are published: “vs 9 Sep settle” is this report's own calculation against the settles it published Wednesday; “vendor” is Investing.com's own change from its prior mark. LME contracts are three-month in dollars per tonne and are not comparable with Comex copper in dollars per pound; both are shown and labelled. |
| Crack spreads, on a consistent October basis against $99.99 WTI |
| Distillate crack: $4.9482 × 42 − $99.99 = $107.83, up $3.28 from Wednesday's $104.55. | | Gasoline crack: $3.3218 × 42 − $99.99 = $39.53, up $1.29 from Wednesday's $38.24. | | The differential widened a further $1.99 to $68.30 from $66.31. |
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| Both cracks widened on a 2.9% crude rally, which is the opposite of Wednesday. Wednesday the gasoline crack fell $5.34 while distillate rose $5.73 — the two legs moved eleven dollars apart. Today they moved the same way, distillate leading by two dollars. The refiner is capturing this leg of the crude move where it could not capture the last one, and the reason is visible in the August PPI: diesel +24.1% with gasoline also advancing means the pass-through the physical market refused a week ago is now going through. Constructive for VLO, MPC and PSX, and the single clearest long the commodity board supports this morning. |
The defining fact is that energy and metals moved violently in opposite directions on the same catalyst. A supply shock that takes crude to $100 is, mechanically, an input-cost shock for every metal producer and a growth shock for every metal consumer — and the market chose to price the second. Copper fell 4.18% two sessions after setting an all-time LME high of $14,694; silver fell 4.39% with a range worth 6% of the contract; platinum and palladium fell more than 5% each. Positioning read: copper's record was explicitly attributed to speculative buying against tight ex-U.S. supply and a looming LME warehouse bidding war, with LME copper up 18% on the year largely on metal moving to the U.S. ahead of refined-copper tariffs. A speculative long that makes an all-time high on Tuesday and is down 4-plus percent by Thursday morning is a liquidation, not a re-rating — and AUD −0.86% with ZAR −1.00% is the corroboration.
Gold's failure is now a level and it is the third time. The December contract traded to $4,476.05 and closed the capture at $4,386.79, a $110.29 high-to-low range. This report flagged roughly $4,480 as a failure point after Tuesday and again after Wednesday; today is the third consecutive rejection within $4 of the same price. Gold falling 1.36% on a morning with a $100 barrel, a 9 bp belly move and a risk-off equity tape is the clearest statement available that the monetary bid is not working — and it puts the gold-silver ratio at 67.55 from 65.47, reversing five consecutive sessions of silver outperformance in one move.
Equity read-through, by cohort. Long: refiners on the widening cracks (VLO, MPC, PSX); integrated energy (XOM, CVX) on a $100 print — though Wednesday's 4.43% crude session bought only 0.95% of sector and that fade is a live warning. Short: copper and PGM miners (FCX −8.8%, SCCO −7.1% pre-market), the diversified miners, and the resource-heavy index complex — the ASX 200's −1.03% is the read. Squeezed: airlines, chemicals, packaged food and truckers, which take the fuel cost without the metals relief; the August PPI's +2.0% truck-transportation-of-freight print is that cost arriving in the data. |
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11 · Credit & Funding |
| (a) IG and HY spreads |
| Series | FRED code | 8 Sep (carried) | 1-Day | 1-Week | YTD | | IG (ICE BofA US Corporate OAS) | BAMLC0A0CM | 81 bp | 0 bp | 0 bp | +2 bp (from 79) | | HY (ICE BofA US High Yield OAS) | BAMLH0A0HYM2 | 267 bp | −1 bp | +2 bp | −16 bp (from 283) | | CCC & lower | BAMLH0A3HYC | 1,056 bp | +1 bp | +7 bp | +168 bp (from 888) | | CDX IG 5y | — | Not retrievable | — | — | — | | CDX HY 5y | — | Not retrievable | — | — | — |
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| ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads via FRED, which publishes with a one-business-day lag. The FRED CSV endpoint was unreachable from this session's sandbox (empty response on all three series), so the levels above are the 8 September as-of values this report published Wednesday, carried forward with that date explicitly attached, cross-checked against a secondary reading of the HY series at 2.66% (266 bp) for September 2026 — consistent with 267 bp to within a basis point. No 9 or 10 September spread level is asserted. |
| CDX. No level is published. The six-step ladder this report works each session — Bloomberg rates-and-bonds, WSJ Market Data bonds, ICE / S&P Global index pages, FT Markets Data, Barchart, then cash proxies — was not executed this session because the compressed window after the late run start was spent on the price data the open depends on. That is a deliberate triage, recorded as such, not a failed retrieval. |
| Cash proxies, labelled as proxies. Wednesday's closes were HYG $78.98 (−0.18%) and LQD $105.31 (−0.16%), with LQD setting a 52-week low at $105.08 intraday. The configuration that matters carries directly into this morning: LQD made a one-year low on a session when the IG index spread was unchanged at 81 bp, because what is repricing investment-grade credit is the Treasury yield underneath it, not the compensation over it. With the 10-year now at 4.918% — a further 8.8 bp cheaper — that pressure has intensified overnight, and IG cash should be expected to make a fresh low today without the spread series moving at all. The CCC-minus-HY differential at 789 bp and +168 bp year to date remains the one genuinely deteriorating credit series on the board. |
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| (b) New issue and funding |
| New-issue calendar: not independently captured this session; no supply figure is asserted. Dell Technologies' $4bn bond sale, flagged Wednesday as one of the few large investment-grade prints of a thin September calendar, remains the reference deal. The rate-lock implication is worth naming: a 9 bp overnight move in the belly makes hedging costs materially worse for anyone pricing today, which argues for a lighter calendar into CPI. | | Funding: the New York Fed reference-rate endpoint was not polled this session. SOFR, EFFR and the SOFR–IORB spread are not published in this edition and are flagged rather than estimated. Wednesday's edition carries the most recent verified row. | | Idiosyncratic credit: no new single-name credit event was identified in the overnight window. The equity-side event with the clearest credit read-through is Cooper Companies — an 18.1% pre-market decline on a guidance cut and strategic-review disappointment is the kind of move that reprices a mid-cap issuer's cost of capital, and it is worth watching whether the name's paper follows the equity. |
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12 · Trading Views |
| Desk-style expressions, not personalized investment advice. Each carries an expression, a catalyst with its time, an invalidation level and a sizing note. Verify independently before acting. |
| 1. Long refiners against integrated energy (VLO or MPC vs XOM), dollar-neutral. Expression: long the refining leg, short the integrated leg, equal notional. Catalyst: EIA Petroleum Status Report at 12:00 ET today; product-inventory draws are the confirming print. Rationale: the distillate crack widened $3.28 to $107.83 and gasoline $1.29 to $39.53 on a 2.9% crude rally — both legs positive, unlike Wednesday when gasoline fell on a 4.43% crude session. The August PPI's +24.1% diesel is that pass-through arriving in the data. Invalidation: a distillate crack back below $104.55, or a WTI close under $97.15. Sizing: dollar-neutral rather than beta-neutral — the refining leg carries roughly 1.3x the energy-sector beta, so a beta-matched book would under-own the thesis. | | 2. Short the copper miners into a stabilising copper price, then cover. Expression: short FCX or SCCO outright, or long XLB puts. Catalyst: the LME close and today's 4:00 PM cash close; a second consecutive down day is the confirming print. Rationale: copper made an all-time LME high of $14,694 on Tuesday and is down 4.18% on Comex / 3.22% on the LME by Thursday morning, with FCX −8.8% pre-market. On management's own sensitivity a 32-cent decline is roughly $1.2bn of run-rate EBITDA. Invalidation: Comex copper reclaiming $6.8583, Wednesday's settle. Sizing: small and short-dated. This is a liquidation trade with a hard clock — record-high positioning unwinds are violent and brief, and the second leg is usually the buyer's. | | 3. Pay December 2026 rather than September, via the ZQ strip. Expression: short ZQZ6 rather than adding to a September hike position. Catalyst: CPI at 8:30 ET tomorrow. Rationale: September is 69.6% priced and the asymmetry has gone — an in-line +0.4% is in the price, and a +0.3% takes the meeting back toward 55–60%. December's two-hike outcome only just became the mode at 44.1% against 33.5%, and a barrel above $100 has months of survey periods to work through. Invalidation: the December mode reverting to 3.75–4.00, or WTI closing below $95. Sizing: the December contract is the larger duration position per unit of probability; size to the same DV01 as a September expression, not the same notional. | | 4. Gap-fill fade in the S&P, tactical and first-hour only. Expression: long ES against the opening print, target the overnight futures high. Catalyst: 10:00 ET existing home sales and the 12:00 EIA report. Rationale: the tape ran a 0.74-percentage-point round trip from +0.17% at 4:44 AM ET to −0.57% at the open on an in-line inflation print. Gaps created by positioning rather than information fill more often than they extend. Invalidation: an S&P cash print below 7,570, which turns a gap-fill into a gap-and-go. Sizing: first hour only; flatten into 10:30 regardless. This is the lowest-conviction idea here and it is explicitly a fade of a move whose cause — a metals liquidation — has not finished. | | 5. Long USD/AUD, or short the resource complex. Expression: long USD/AUD spot, or short a basket of diversified miners. Catalyst: the LME session and China's Monday data. Rationale: AUD/USD fell 0.86% and is printing on its low, the worst major, on the day copper fell 4.6% and the ASX 200 fell 1.03%. The Australian dollar is the cleanest liquid proxy for the base-metals complex and has not yet priced the full move. Invalidation: AUD/USD reclaiming 0.7224, the overnight high. Sizing: modest — this is the same underlying risk as idea 2 and the two should be netted, not stacked. | | 6. Own volatility into tonight's Oracle print if you own the AI complex. Expression: ORCL put spreads or an index hedge sized to AI-complex exposure. Catalyst: Oracle after the close, call at 5:00 PM ET. Rationale: options are pricing an 11% move; consensus is $1.74 EPS on $19.13bn revenue and the swing factor is whether the $638bn RPO and the 58–64% cloud-order guide convert against the capex line. Micron was already −3.03% and SanDisk −2.24% at the open, so the complex is soft going in. Adobe follows with a 5.4% implied move. Invalidation: not applicable — this is a hedge, not a directional view. Sizing: size to the delta of the AI-capex exposure being hedged, not to a view on Oracle. |
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| Volatility and technical note. VIX is 17.65, up 1.19 points or 7.23%, having traded a session range of 16.29 to 17.77 — so the index has already made a fresh high for the move this morning. That follows Wednesday's +4.71% to 16.46. Two consecutive sessions of a bid VIX with the S&P down less than 0.6% each time is a market buying protection faster than it is selling stock, which is a positioning signal rather than a panic signal. The option-implied move for the S&P today could not be retrieved this session and is not asserted. Key levels: prior cash close 7,636.49; the 9:32 opening area 7,591.81; the round number the tape is working around is 7,600, and the S&P opened below it. On the futures, the overnight high of 7,656.75 at 4:44 AM ET is the level a gap-fill has to reach. The Nasdaq Composite at −0.84% against the S&P's −0.59% puts the growth-versus-value spread on the wrong side for anyone long duration into CPI. |
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13 · S&P 500 Earnings Calendar |
| ★ TODAY — Thursday, September 10 |
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| BMO (reported this morning): No S&P 500 member. Macy's (M), a non-member, reported and is covered in (§5). |
| AMC tonight | Company | Consensus EPS | Consensus revenue | Implied move | Note | | ORCL | Oracle | ~$1.74 (+18.4% y/y) | ~$19.13bn (+28.1%) | ~11% | Call 5:00 PM ET. RPO $638bn; cloud-order guide 58–64% | | ADBE | Adobe | $6.09 | ~$6.7bn | ~5.4% | Guidance $6.67–6.72bn rev, $6.05–6.10 EPS | | CPRT | Copart | not captured | not captured | — | No consensus asserted |
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| Tonight is the session's dominant single-name risk and the two prints are not independent. Oracle reports the spending side of the artificial-intelligence ledger on the third day after Meta rose 6.55% on the monetisation side of it. An 11% implied move on a name of Oracle's size is a meaningful index event in its own right, and Micron −3.03% and SanDisk −2.24% at the open say the complex is already leaning the wrong way. Adobe's setup is the tighter one: its own guidance midpoint sits at or above consensus on both revenue and EPS, which leaves no room for a soft print. And both land into a curve that cheapened 8–9 bp overnight and a market that has, per (§5), paid nothing for beats all week. |
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| Current week (Sep 7 – Sep 11) — remaining |
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| Fri 9/11. BMO: Kroger (KR) — the only consumer read of the week, arriving with retail diesel at $5.94 and gasoline at $4.22 a gallon in its own cost base, and thirty minutes after the CPI print. AMC: none. |
| Next week (Sep 14 – Sep 18) |
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| Mon 9/14. No S&P 500 reporter on either bucket. |
| Tue 9/15. No S&P 500 reporter on either bucket. |
| Wed 9/16. BMO: none. AMC: Lennar (LEN). |
| Thu 9/17. No S&P 500 reporter on either bucket. |
| Fri 9/18. No S&P 500 reporter on either bucket. |
Changes versus the prior calendar (9/9 edition). No additions, no removals, no re-datings. Oracle, Adobe and Copart remain on 9/10 after the close; Kroger on 9/11 before the open; Lennar on 9/16 after the close, deduped against LEN.B. Four of next week's five sessions carry no S&P 500 reporter at all, unchanged, and it remains the emptiest forward week of the reporting window. Lennar on 9/16 is now the single reporter of a week that also contains the first day of the FOMC meeting and a retail sales print — a homebuilder reporting into a 4.92% ten-year is the read-through to watch.
Sourcing disclosed: the roster is carried from this session's cross-check against the Nasdaq earnings calendar captures used in Wednesday's edition. Nasdaq publishes a before-open or after-close bucket rather than a clock time, so no clock times are asserted except Oracle's 5:00 PM ET call, which the company itself has confirmed. Confirm every time against company investor relations before trading a date.
Non-members on the covered dates, listed so absence is not mistaken for omission: Macy's (M) — reported this morning — Descartes (DSGX), RH, National Beverage (FIZZ), Hub Group (HUBG), Zumiez (ZUMZ), Designer Brands (DBI), Lovesac (LOVE), 1-800-Flowers (FLWS), Tenneco (TEN) and IBEX on 9/10; KT Corp, Hooker Furnishings (HOFT), Rent the Runway (RENT), Children's Place (PLCE) and MoneyHero (MNY) on 9/11; Grifols (GRFS), Apartment Investment (AIV), Dave & Buster's (PLAY), Hain Celestial (HAIN) and Komatsu (KMTS) on 9/14; Trip.com (TCOM) and Vera Bradley (VRA) on 9/15; Manchester United (MANU) and Cracker Barrel (CBRL) on 9/16. |
14 · Risk Map — Today's Session |
| Full session. The NYSE closes at 4:00 PM ET; this is not a shortened day. |
| ★ TODAY — Event clock — Thursday, September 10 |
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| Time ET | Event | Status | | 08:15 | ECB decision — +25 bp delivered | Released | | 08:30 | PPI, core PPI, jobless claims, continuing claims | Released (claims figure disputed — §7) | | 09:30 | Cash open — S&P opened ~0.59% below Wednesday's close | Passed | | 10:00 | NAR Existing Home Sales, consensus 3.97m | Ahead | | 10:30 | EIA Natural Gas Storage | Ahead | | 12:00 | EIA Petroleum Status Report — the session's live catalyst with WTI at $100 | Ahead | | — | Treasury buyback, 10–20Y, up to $6bn — mid-session; the 20-year clears through it | Ahead | | 15:00–16:00 | Closing hour — positioning into CPI | Ahead | | 16:00 | Cash close | — | | After 16:00 | Oracle (~11% implied), Adobe (~5.4% implied), Copart — ORCL call 5:00 PM ET | Ahead | | Fri 08:30 | CPI, consensus +0.4% m/m / 3.4% y/y — Very high | Tomorrow | | Sat 9/12 | FOMC blackout begins | — |
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| Crowded consensuses to stress-test, each with the number that breaks it |
| 1. “The Fed hikes on 16 September.” Priced at 69.6%, up from 50.4% a week ago. Breaks on: a CPI print of +0.2% or below tomorrow, which would take the meeting under 55% and bull-steepen a curve carrying 12.7 points of freshly-bought upper tail. | | 2. “The energy shock is a supply story the Fed should look through.” This morning the market abandoned it. Breaks back on: an EIA build at 12:00 plus a WTI close under $97.15, which would make Thursday's 9-point repricing look like a one-day overshoot. | | 3. “Copper's record was structural — tight ex-U.S. supply and a warehouse squeeze.” Breaks on: a second consecutive LME down day and a Comex close below $6.50, confirming liquidation over fundamentals and putting the whole miner complex on a lower base. | | 4. “AI capex is still accelerating.” Tested at 4:00 PM. Breaks on: an Oracle RPO that does not grow in line with the 58–64% cloud-order guide, or a capex raise without a matching backlog. The complex is already soft — MU −3.03%. | | 5. “Gold is the hedge for this.” It is not working: third consecutive rejection within $4 of $4,480, and a 1.36% decline on a $100 barrel with a 9 bp belly move. Breaks the other way on: a close above $4,480, which would be the first in three attempts. |
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| Two-sided geopolitical tape |
| Higher-risk: further Iranian strikes on U.S. or Gulf assets after the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base attack; any action at or around Pickaxe Mountain following Trump's explicit warning; a Strait of Hormuz closure extension. Lower-risk: any diplomatic signal, which UBS has framed as the missing ingredient — its note headline that the U.S.–Iran “off-ramp remains elusive” is the standing condition. The asymmetry is that oil at $100 prices a great deal of continuation and very little resolution, and Trump's own comment that prices will not fall until after the midterms is a two-month horizon the barrel has now partially adopted. Separately, Trump's proposed $5,000 “Trump Dividend” — Reuters estimates roughly $1.35 trillion — met immediate bipartisan pushback and was partly walked back by Vice President Vance; it is a fiscal-supply story for the long end if it gains traction, and noise if it does not. |
| Structural watch items carried forward |
| 20s30s re-inverted to −0.8 bp after one session flat; the buyback bucket names the 20-year and it is underperforming into the operation. | | CCC-minus-HY at 789 bp, +168 bp YTD — the one credit series genuinely deteriorating, and unchecked this session. | | LQD's 52-week low at $105.08 made on an unchanged 81 bp IG spread; with the 10-year 8.8 bp cheaper this morning, a fresh low is likely without any spread move. | | The mainland China large-cap/growth split reopened after one session's truce — Shanghai −0.43% against SZSE Component −0.77%. | | Bank of Japan, 18 September, with USD/JPY back at 154.25. |
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| What the VIX is and is not pricing. VIX at 17.65 is up 7.23% and has made a fresh high for the move at 17.77, and it is doing that on an S&P down 0.59%. Two sessions of a bid VIX against sub-1% index declines say the bid is for protection against tomorrow, not for today's tape. What that level does price: a normal CPI, a normal Oracle print, a barrel that stays where it is. What it does not price: an 11% Oracle move transmitting to the AI complex on the same night; a metals liquidation entering a second leg with the miners already down 8%; or a CPI that comes in hot against a barrel whose move happened after the survey period closed. At 17.65 the index is roughly one point above where it sat before a week in which the Fed path moved 19 points — that is the mispricing to think about, and it is cheap rather than expensive. |
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| Full Source Links and the complete Data Notes & Conflicts section — including the run-timing disclosure, the jobless-claims vendor conflict, the commodity change-basis reconciliation and the list of fields not asserted this session — are in the companion file US_CrossAsset_Opening_2026-09-10_DataNotes.txt. |
| U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Opening Daily — Thursday, September 10, 2026. Data as of ~9:55 AM ET; news window Wed 9 Sep 4:00 PM ET to Thu 10 Sep ~9:55 AM ET. Sections 1–14; Source Links (15) and Data Notes & Conflicts (16) are in the companion text file. Prepared for institutional readers. Not personalized investment advice; verify independently before acting. |
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