Closing Briefing — Friday, September 11, 2026

# U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Closing Daily

Prepared for institutional readers after the U.S. cash close and the 5:00 p.m. ET bond close. All levels are the 11 September session unless stated; the prior completed session is Thursday 10 September. Cross-references are by section number; the three unnumbered sections are referred to by name. Companion file: US_CrossAsset_Daily_2026-09-11_DataNotes.txt.

Source: Finviz group screener, Performance table view (g=sector&v=140&o=name), read after the close. 1-Day is the Change % column, 1-Week Perf Week, YTD Perf YTD. Finviz classification, not GICS.

Nine groups green and the two that were not are the two that should not have been. Utilities fell 0.32% and healthcare 0.09% on a session when the thirty-year richened 2 bp, which normally buys the bond proxies a bid; instead PG&E -1.64% and American Water -1.54% led utilities lower while UnitedHealth -2.37% and Edwards Lifesciences -2.77% carried healthcare. Healthcare's -4.70% week is by a wide margin the worst on the board and more than twice the next group's. The leadership at the top is equally unusual: industrials at +1.32% beat technology on a day the artificial-intelligence hardware complex rose double digits, because the same capital-expenditure story runs through Quanta Services +5.15%, Eaton +3.96%, GE Vernova +3.61%, Jabil +5.05% and Amphenol +4.57% — the power, cabling and contract-manufacturing tier of the data-centre buildout sits in industrials, not technology.

Energy at +0.03% is the fourth refusal in four sessions and the cleanest one yet. Wednesday bought 0.95% of sector for a 4.43% crude gain; Thursday minus 0.39% for a finalised 6.69% gain; Friday three basis points for a 2.43% decline. A group that will not follow crude up and will not follow it down has stopped pricing the barrel altogether — and the internal split says where it went instead. Valero +1.29% and Phillips 66 +0.37% at 52-week highs and Marathon Petroleum +0.89% against Baker Hughes -0.57%, Halliburton -0.65%, Targa -0.57% and EQT -1.62%: refining is bid, services and gas are not. With the distillate crack at $109.74 that is a rational allocation rather than a contradiction.

The YTD reconciliation, and the drift that ran for two sessions has closed. Compounding each group's 10 September YTD by Friday's one-day move reproduces the published YTD to within 0.05 percentage points for ten of the eleven groups, with a maximum deviation of 0.13 pp. Worked examples: energy 1.4134 × 1.0003 = 1.41382, or +41.38% against a published +41.38%, deviation zero; technology 1.2402 × 1.0112 = 1.25409 → +25.41% against +25.43%, deviation 0.02; industrials 1.0874 × 1.0132 = 1.10175 → +10.18% against +10.18%, deviation zero. Financial, which carried a 0.53 pp excess on Thursday and 0.55 pp on Wednesday, now reconciles to 0.01 pp: implied 1.0688 × 1.0083 = 1.07767, or +7.77% against a published +7.76%. The single residual is consumer cyclical at 0.13 pp — implied 0.9290 × 1.0110 = 0.93922, or -6.08%, against a published -6.21%. Two same-signed deviations resolving in one session is the signature this report described on Thursday as a constituent change working through the vendor's group definitions, and it has finished working through financial.

The composition traps. Technology at +1.12% badly understates the day's semiconductor and hardware move — SOX +1.81%, HPE +12.44%, Dell +11.98%, HP Inc +8.39% — because the group is diluted by Oracle -1.74%, Seagate -3.73%, SanDisk -3.50%, Western Digital -2.98%, Palo Alto -2.32% and Fortinet -1.75%: storage and security went the other way from compute. Communication services at +1.30% is Charter +3.71% and Alphabet A +1.77% rather than Comcast +0.12% or Meta +0.57%. Consumer defensive scraped +0.61% on Philip Morris +0.68% and Kroger +2.70% against General Mills -0.33%, a ninth consecutive decline. Basic materials at +0.30% conceals a 9.4-point spread between Celanese +0.81% and FMC -5.63%, with Albemarle -3.76% alongside — the lithium and specialty-chemical names, not the metals, which is a reversal of Thursday's driver.

S&P 500 constituents unless flagged. Closes and volumes from the Investing.com component board, read after the 16:00 ET close; the capture returned 494 of roughly 500 lines, so counts are a ratio rather than a census.

Up — the artificial-intelligence hardware complex, on Oracle's capital-expenditure guidance

Down — storage, security, specialty chemicals and managed care

Analyst actions, with the arithmetic

The fade, and there barely was one. The S&P 500 traded 7,636.75 to 7,677.02 and closed 7,656.85, or 0.26% below the high — a narrow range and a mid-band close on a day with a Very-high release in it, which is unusual and argues the buying was systematic rather than headline-driven. VIX closed 15.84 against a session low of 15.59, twenty-five cents off the bottom. The one genuine intraday story is SpaceX (SPCX) +2.04% to $151.21 on 77.94m shares, the second-largest volume on the board, on a disclosed $1.1bn monthly computing agreement; it is not an S&P 500 member and is flagged as such.

Sourcing, disclosed. The Earnings Whispers day pages remain behind a cookie-and-usage-agreement consent banner, which this unattended session did not accept. The rosters below are captured from the Nasdaq earnings calendar API for each date and screened name by name against an S&P 500 constituent list. Nasdaq publishes a before-open or after-close bucket rather than a clock time, so no clock times are asserted this session; confirm every time against company investor relations before trading a date.

The current week is finished. Every session has reported and the next S&P 500 name is in the following week.

Mon 9/14. No S&P 500 reporter on either bucket.

Tue 9/15. No S&P 500 reporter on either bucket.

Wed 9/16. AMC: Lennar (LEN).

Thu 9/17. No S&P 500 reporter on either bucket.

Fri 9/18. No S&P 500 reporter on either bucket.

Changes vs. the prior calendar (9/10 report):

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury daily par yield curve, 11 September 2026 row, read from the Text View with the month-scoped query. All fourteen tenors were extracted; the table publishes ten. Week-on-week is versus the 4 September row.

A front-led bear flattener with a genuinely negative long end, and that sign change is the diagnostic. The cheapening peaks at the 1-year and 2-year, both +7 bp, decays monotonically outward — 3-year +6, 5-year +3, 7-year +3, 10-year +1 — and then crosses zero: the 20-year richened 1 bp and the 30-year 2 bp. A curve that adds seven basis points of near-term policy and simultaneously takes two out of thirty-year duration is not repricing term premium in either direction; it is pricing a committee that will act and pricing the growth consequence of the action in the same session. Compare Thursday, when every tenor cheapened and the peak sat in the belly at +14 bp: the move has migrated four notches shorter in twenty-four hours. 2s30s tightened 9 bp to 72 bp and 15 bp on the week, 2s10s to 33 bp — the flattest print of this cycle — and 3M10Y to 89 bp even though the bill itself rose 7 bp.

The week is where the damage is, and it is concentrated inside two years. The 1-year is 22 bp cheaper than a week ago, the 2-year 26 bp, the 3-year and 5-year 24 bp each, against the 20-year 13 bp and the 30-year 11 bp. The 2-year has cheapened 26 bp in five sessions while the 30-year has cheapened 11, so more than half the week's move sits at maturities the committee's next three meetings can reach. That is the arithmetic behind an 86.5% September hike and a December distribution whose mode is two hikes.

The bill curve rose with the front and the off-table tenors carry the detail. The 3-month rose 7 bp to 4.07%, matching the 2-year's move for the first time this week, while the 1-month rose only 2 bp to 3.93%. Off the table: the 1.5-month rose 6 bp to 3.99%, the 2-month 4 bp to 4.05%, the 4-month 4 bp to 4.15% and the 6-month 5 bp to 4.12%. Two observations. The 2-month at 4.05% is now 2 bp below the 3-month at 4.07%, so Thursday's fresh 2-month-over-3-month inversion has closed and reversed in a single session — the very front of the bill curve has stopped pricing the 16 September meeting as a discontinuity and started pricing it as the first of several. And the 4-month at 4.15% is 3 bp above the 6-month at 4.12%, a gap that narrowed from 4 bp, so the localised cheapening around the December meeting continues to compress. A 1-month that moves 2 bp while the 3-month moves 7 is a bill complex saying the hike is inside the quarter but not inside the month.

The vendor-versus-official gap, explained, and it is unusually small. Bloomberg's real-time board closed the 10-year at 4.97%, +1 bp, against the official par 4.96%, +1 bp, and the 2-year at 4.63%, +4 bp, against the official 4.63%, +7 bp — the level identical, the change different because Bloomberg's Thursday base was 4.59% rather than the official 4.56%. The Wall Street Journal's 5:03 p.m. ET quotes read 2-year 4.628%, +4.0 bp, 10-year 4.974%, +0.5 bp and 30-year 5.358%, -1.0 bp, with the front of its bill strip at 1-month +8.8 bp and 3-month +8.4 bp. Every vendor agrees on the shape — front up, long end down — and the residual is the 3:30 p.m. ET par-curve strike against boards that run to 5:00 p.m. and beyond. It is a timing artefact, and on a day when the official 30-year fell 2 bp and the Journal's fell 1.0 bp, the direction agrees at every point.

Source: the TradingEconomics United States calendar, read this session with the timezone selector resolving to Eastern, cross-checked against the Wall Street Journal market-data calendar and the Bureau of Labor Statistics release itself. Consensus figures for the week of 14 September were independently re-captured this session. Correction carried forward: the prior edition placed the FOMC decision at 14:00 on 17 September. The Federal Reserve's own 2026 calendar, CME FedWatch's meeting label, the Investing.com card and the TradingEconomics row all put the two-day meeting on 15-16 September with the decision and projections at 14:00 ET on Wednesday 16 September, and that is the date used throughout this edition.

Current week (Sep 7 - Sep 11) — still to come

Nothing remains. The week's last release, the Monthly Treasury Budget Statement, printed at 14:00 ET on Friday.

Next week (Sep 14 - Sep 18)

Current target range: 3.50%-3.75%. A one-tenth core-inflation beat moved the September meeting fourteen points and took the hold bucket below one in seven.

CME FedWatch headline — 16 September 2026 meeting. Data as of 11 Sep 2026, 05:03:08 p.m. CT (6:03 p.m. ET), read from the FedWatch probability table. Contract ZQU6.

Provenance of every column, stated, and the live-read correction persists. The footer timestamp reads 05:03:08 CT with no meridian; the read was taken at approximately 6:05 p.m. ET, roughly two hours after the 4:00 p.m. CT ZQ session close, so it resolves as p.m. and is an indicative snapshot rather than a settlement one. The 1 DAY column carries the legend date 10 September and prints 72.4%, against the 71.3% this report published from CME's live column on Thursday evening — a +1.1 percentage-point correction. The window now reads +0.8, +0.8, 0.0, +1.0, +1.1, and the sequence still does not justify a standing adjustment: four of five corrections sit inside a single rounding band and the one zero has not repeated. 1 WEEK (4 September) at 59.4% and 1 MONTH (11 August) at 48.4% carry genuine reference dates and are used below. The Investing.com matrix underneath is timestamped 11 Sep 2026, 05:45 p.m. EDT and is the primary source for parts (a), (b) and (c).

The CME-versus-Investing.com gap, quantified. CME puts the September hike at 86.5% at 6:03 p.m. ET; Investing.com at 85.5% at 5:45 p.m. ET — a 1.0 percentage-point difference across eighteen minutes, against 0.3 on Thursday and 0.1 on Wednesday. Investing.com publishes the September future at 96.268 against 96.288 on Thursday. Because the 16 September meeting sits mid-month, only about 47% of the contract's averaging period is affected, so one basis point of ZQ price is worth roughly ten percentage points of hike probability — and the 2.0 basis points the front contract cheapened maps to about twenty points of probability against the 16.5 points the vendor's own columns show. The residual is CME's day-weighting plus the eighteen-minute gap, and at 1.0 point it is the widest of the week without leaving a single rounding step of the mapped estimate.

One-day, one-week and multi-day momentum. The September hike rose 14.1 points on CME's own columns, 86.5% from 72.4%, and 16.5 points on Investing.com's own columns, 85.5% from 69.0%. ZQU6 cheapened 2.0 bp to 96.268 and ZQZ6 5.5 bp to 95.910 — a ratio of roughly one to three, against one to seven on Thursday, so the front leg is now doing a materially larger share of the repricing. The multi-day read: the meeting sat at 59.4% a week ago and 48.4% a month ago, so it is 27.1 points more hawkish than a week ago and 38.1 points more hawkish than a month ago, and the week's path is 59.4 to 69.0 to 72.4 to 86.5. Further out on the vendor's own columns, October's cumulative-above rose to 92.8% from 81.1% and December's to 97.4% from 93.5%. The probability of a cut at any 2026 meeting remains 0.0%.

(a) Current-year meeting distributions

Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor, updated 11 Sep 2026 05:45 p.m. EDT. Format: current [prior day] [prior week]. Modal range in bold.

All three rows sum to exactly 100.0%. Four observations. First, the vendor's prior-day column drifted again and by more: it prints 31.0% and 69.0% at September against the 29.0% and 71.0% published on Thursday, a 2.0-point gap against 0.3 the day before, so the fixed-snapshot caveat is now the rule rather than the exception. Second, October is one session from flipping. One hike leads two by 6.4 points, 49.6% against 43.2%, where the lead was 27.8 points on Thursday and 37.7 a week ago — the compression that took four sessions to invert December has taken two to bring October to the edge. Third, the December mode has not moved but the tail underneath it has: two hikes at 47.3% against Thursday's 46.3%, while three hikes went to 27.4% from 17.6% — nearly ten points of new tail mass at +75 bp, on top of the 9.5 points added on Thursday. Fourth, the hold bucket is now negligible at every meeting: September 14.5%, October 7.2%, December 2.6%. A December hold at two and a half points is a market that has priced the current range out of existence for this year.

(b) Next-year meeting path

Modal range, its probability, and the cumulative probability above and below the current 3.50%-3.75% range, with the contract price that draws it.

Five of the eight 2027 meetings have moved up a full bucket in one session. On Thursday seven of eight were modal at 4.25%-4.50%; on Friday everything from June onward sits at 4.50%-4.75%, March and April hold at 4.25%-4.50%, and January remains the sole survivor at 4.00%-4.25%. The eight contracts print 95.855, 95.700, 95.620, 95.500, 95.475, 95.440, 95.435 and 95.450 against Thursday's 95.905, 95.750, 95.670, 95.560, 95.535, 95.545, 95.500 and 95.550 — 5.0 to 10.5 basis points cheaper, against 9.0 to 20.5 on Thursday, so the back end cheapened at roughly half Thursday's pace while doing more damage to the modal path. Set that against the front, where September 2026 cheapened 2.0 bp and December 2026 5.5 bp. The distribution of the move has flattened: Thursday's cheapening ran five to seventeen times larger at the back than the front, Friday's runs two to five times, and the deepest point is the September 2027 contract at 10.5 bp. Cumulative-above at December 2027 rose to 99.4% from 97.4% and the cut probability at 3.25%-3.50% has fallen to 0.0% from 0.3% — the last non-trivial easing probability anywhere on the 2027 strip has been extinguished.

(c) Year-end probability ladders

Year-end 2026 — the 9 December meeting.

Cumulative above the current range: 97.4%. Cumulative below: 0.0%. Sum: 100.0%.

Year-end 2027 — the 8 December meeting.

Cumulative above the current range: 99.4%. Cumulative below: 0.0%. Sum: 100.0%.

Rounding, transparently. Every figure is reproduced at the vendor's own one-decimal precision. Column sums of 99.9% or 100.1% are rounding artefacts of that precision, not missing probability mass; no cell has been rescaled, and cells shown as 0.0% are ranges the vendor's own card either omits entirely or publishes as zero, which under CME methodology means a probability below the rounding floor. Both year-end ladders and all three 2026 rows sum to exactly 100.0% this session; the March, June and July 2027 rows sum to 99.9%, 100.1% and 100.1% for exactly this reason.

(a) IG and HY credit spreads

ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads via FRED. FRED publishes with a one-business-day lag: the levels below carry the 10 September 2026 as-of date, not the 11 September close. Same-day direction is cross-checked against the cash-market proxies underneath and against Bloomberg and WSJ credit coverage. 1-Week is versus the 3 September row.

CDX — the six-step ladder was worked again in the local Chrome browser, and four of the six steps could be executed. (1) Bloomberg in Chrome: /markets, /markets/rates-bonds and /markets/fixed-income all rendered fully, and a full-text scan of each returns zero occurrences of the index name and zero of "credit default"; the fixed-income tables carry Bloomberg's own aggregate indices and the regional ten-year government boards, not credit-default-swap levels. (2) WSJ Market Data bonds page in Chrome: rendered with its Treasury, consumer-rate and government-bond tables populated, and a full-text scan across 8,641 characters returns zero occurrences. (3) Cbonds CDX.NA.IG 5Y page: reached again and it carries a live dated record — the page shows a previous value stamped 09/09/2026, one business day later than the 08/09 stamp it showed on Thursday, with the level itself masked behind a request-access wall and printed as a row of asterisks in place of the basis-point figure. The record is advancing; the number is still not publishable. (4) FT Markets Data and (5) Barchart remain refused by the Chrome extension's domain policy ("Navigation to this domain is not allowed"), so those two steps could not be executed at all — a tooling failure rather than an absence of data, recorded as such rather than reported as a clean six-step failure. CME's credit-index product pages carry specifications rather than levels. (6) Cash-market proxies, labelled as proxies: HYG closed $78.64, +0.03%, and LQD $104.36, +0.02%. No CDX level is published here.

The watch level printed, to the basis point. Wednesday's edition named CCC-minus-HY through 800 bp as the line that would say the tail has decoupled rather than lagged. On the 10 September stamp the CCC credit spread widened 6 bp to 1,070 while HY tightened 1 bp to 270, and the differential is exactly 800 bp against 793. It has now widened on seven of eight updates and is 19 bp wider on the week and 182 bp on the year, against an HY series that is 13 bp tighter than it started 2026. Meanwhile IG tightened a basis point to 80, its first move in five updates and in the wrong direction for anyone arguing credit is repricing. The cash proxies stopped falling: LQD rose 0.02% to $104.36 after printing a fresh intraday 52-week low of $104.33, so the floor moved another three cents and then held, and HYG rose 0.03% to $78.64, still seven cents above its own 52-week low of $78.57. Two sessions ago the price was making new lows daily and the index spread was flat; now the price has stabilised and the tail spread is doing the work. That is the sequence you would expect if the repricing were migrating from duration into credit quality, and it is the first session of the window where it has looked like that.

(b) Money-market & funding plumbing

New York Fed reference rates, published at approximately 8:00 a.m. ET for the prior business day. The 9 September 2026 row is the latest published to the reference-rates endpoint at capture; no 10 September row had published. The operations figures beneath it are dated 11 September. Rate up = red.

The plumbing is quietly loosening while the curve tightens, and that divergence is now three sessions old. Reverse repo take-up rose to $5.255bn on 11 September from $4.736bn on 10 September and $432m on 9 September — a twelve-fold move across three sessions and the largest sustained build of the reporting window, on days when the front of the curve cheapened 20 basis points. Cash returning to the facility while term rates rise is money-fund cash declining to lend term at the new levels rather than a scarcity signal, and the reserve side corroborates: $2.9913tn for the week ended 9 September remains the latest print, up $96.8bn on the prior week and fully reversing the earlier drain, with quarter-end now thirteen days away. SOFR at 3.64% is 1 bp below the 3.65% IORB for a second consecutive published row, with the 99th percentile at 3.72% on $2,859bn of volume. The standing repo facility took $1m on 10 September against zero on 9 September; the 11 September result had not published at capture and is not asserted. One correction: the endpoint now reports $0 for 9 September, against the $5m this report carried on Thursday from an endpoint that has since been superseded — the figure is restated rather than defended.

The off-table bill tenors belong here, and this session they unwound Thursday's inversion. The 1-month rose 2 bp to 3.93%, the 1.5-month 6 bp to 3.99%, the 2-month 4 bp to 4.05%, the 4-month 4 bp to 4.15% and the 6-month 5 bp to 4.12%, against the 3-month's 7 bp to 4.07%. The 2-month is now 2 bp below the 3-month, reversing the 1 bp inversion that appeared for the first time on Thursday, and the 4-month-above-6-month gap narrowed again to 3 bp from 4 bp. The shortest instrument spanning the 16 September decision has stopped trading at a premium to the one spanning the quarter, which says the bill market now expects the hike to be the first of a sequence rather than a one-off discontinuity. A complex that moves 2 to 7 bp on a session when the 2-year moves 7 is still saying the pressure is policy expectation and not funding.

(c) Rates volatility & swap spreads

The two volatility surfaces went in opposite directions and the gap is the widest of the window. The Investing.com MOVE series carries a 10/09 date stamp at 82.09, up 5.35 points or 6.97% from the 76.74 that carried a 9 September vintage, with a day range of 76.74 to 82.09 that contains its own level and whose lower bound equals the prior published vintage — two internal checks that pass. The card's "previous close" field reads 95.74, which sits outside its own day range and is inconsistent with the change field; that field is corrupt and is not used, exactly as the change field was withheld on Thursday for the mirror-image failure. What the series says is that rate volatility made a new high for the move on Thursday's session, and no 11 September value has published. Against that, VIX fell 11.21% to 15.84 with a low of 15.59, giving back 2.00 of the 3.52 points it had added across four sessions and closing back inside the 14-to-17 band it had broken only one session earlier. The MOVE-to-VIX ratio at 5.18 is computed on a one-day-stale numerator and flagged; on Thursday's matched pair it was 4.30. Rate volatility rising into a decision while equity volatility collapses is the configuration where the index option surface is underwriting a macro event the rates market is still pricing. Swap spreads at the 2-year, 10-year and 30-year were not obtainable from a primary source this session and are not asserted; the substitute evidence is the cash curve itself, where 20s30s widened to -3 bp from -2 bp, so the bucket Treasury's buyback targeted cheapened for a second consecutive session.

(d) Issuance, leveraged loans & private credit

The financing market found one route open and it was not the obvious one. With the 10-year at 4.96%, the 30-year at 5.35% and LQD printing a fresh 52-week low intraday, the visible primary activity on Friday was in the two places that do not need the investment-grade new-issue window: KKR wrapped up a $2.1bn leveraged loan for its Integer acquisition, and Bloomberg reported that the US convertible bond market has hit a record as artificial-intelligence spending surges — equity-linked paper doing the work a 5% coupon cannot. Meta met European credit investors in a non-deal roadshow, which is a large issuer building a bid in the currency where the rate is 3.50% rather than 4.96%. The muni market remains the visible casualty of the yield rather than the spread, with long-dated yields more than 50 bp wider since end-June, and post-Labor-Day investment-grade issuance is still running at its weakest pace since 2020 after an August near a record $130-145bn and year-to-date supply above $1.68tn, up 27% on 2025. The fiscal backdrop got worse in public on the same afternoon: the August budget statement printed -$167bn against a -$404bn consensus, a large upside surprise on the month, but the full-year 2026 gap has reached $1.97tn with a month still to run. Alongside it, Santander's estimate that Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund may sell $62bn of Treasuries is a demand-side item the market has not priced. On the loan side no updated Morningstar LSTA print was obtainable this session and none is asserted. The named private-credit watch item is unchanged — Broadcom's contingent residual-value guarantees to two artificial-intelligence laboratories, vendor financing no published spread series captures, with Broadcom +0.29% — and Oracle's side of the same ledger got heavier: $90-95bn of guided capital expenditure, narrowed gross margins and an additional $700m of job-cut spending, against a rating S&P Global cut to the lowest investment grade in July.

Source: TradingEconomics currency board, read after the U.S. close on the vendor's Sep/11 stamp. Quote basis: EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD are quoted as units of dollar per unit of foreign currency, so a fall is a weaker foreign currency; every other pair is quoted as units of foreign currency per dollar, so a rise is a weaker foreign currency. The %Chg column is the vendor's own daily change on its Sep/11 boundary and covers the full U.S. session, with two exceptions flagged in the table and reconciled in Data Notes.

The take: the dollar did nothing on the day it was handed the most hawkish repricing of the year, and that is the finding. CME's September hike went from 72.4% to 86.5%, the 2-year cheapened 7 bp, the whole 2027 strip moved up a bucket — and DXY closed at 99.093, unchanged to three decimal places from the prior session's capture, with Bloomberg describing its own dollar spot index as "little changed" and the Wall Street Journal's dollar index at -0.06%. Three independent measures, one answer: no move. A currency that will not rally on a hundred basis points of added expected policy is a currency where the rate story is already in the price, and the composition underneath says the same thing — six of the twelve crosses moved in the dollar's favour and six against, with the largest moves on either side, USD/KRW -0.65% and USD/CHF +0.45%, both under half a per cent.

The haven cross failed for a second consecutive session and the petro-currency failed symmetrically. USD/CHF rose 0.45% — the franc weakened — on a session with a hot core inflation print, a 14-point jump in a policy-meeting probability and a collapsing consumer survey. Thursday the franc would not bid on an 8% crude rally; Friday it would not bid on an inflation surprise. A haven that declines on two entirely different risk signals in two days is being outcompeted by cash at 4.07% on the 3-month bill, and that is the cleanest structural read on this table. The mirror image is USD/NOK +0.15%: the krone weakened on a session when Brent fell 2.94%, having weakened 0.88% on a session when Brent rose 7.98%. Two directions, one outcome — the Norwegian currency has stopped trading terms of trade altogether. USD/CAD +0.28% did the same thing more mildly.

Asia split for the first time in a week and the split is the interesting part. USD/KRW fell 0.65% to 1,341.25 — the won was the firmest Asian major — on a session when the Kospi fell 1.76%, its worst in the region after Japan. A currency that strengthens while its equity index falls nearly two per cent is not tracking foreign equity flow; it is tracking a 4.53% Korean ten-year that cheapened 8 bp overnight, which is a domestic rate story. Against that, USD/TWD's vendor change field is internally inconsistent and the computed twenty-four-hour move is -0.12%, a fifth of the won's, on a session Taiwan fell 1.61%. And USD/CNY fell 0.09% with a week-on-week change of exactly zero — five sessions, two of the largest inflation repricings of the year, an 8% crude rally and its partial give-back, and the managed currency has finished the week precisely where it started. The yen was the strongest major at -0.52%, its second consecutive gain, with 10-year JGBs 6 bp cheaper at 2.97% and the Bank of Japan seven days out; the yen is now 1.69% stronger on the week and the repatriation question this report opened on Tuesday has resolved into a plain rate-differential story.

Settlement basis, stated, and reconciled to the prior edition. The Investing.com per-contract historical board remains the settle series of record, unchanged from the prior three editions. Rows were captured at approximately 18:25 ET. Every one of the prior edition's 10 September rows has finalised away from what was published, several of them materially, and all eight are restated below with every derived figure recomputed. Volumes this session ran between 42% and 99% of the prior session's, so each row was corroborated against the TradingEconomics spot board on the same capture and against Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal and Investrade before publication; the corroboration is quantified below. WTI, RBOB, heating oil and natural gas are on the October contract; gold, silver and copper on December; Brent on the November contract. No front-month roll occurred this session. Weekly and year-to-date columns are TradingEconomics spot returns on the vendor's Sep/11 stamp.

\*YTD figures marked with an asterisk are TradingEconomics spot year-to-date returns, not futures returns on the contracts quoted above. Weekly columns are TradingEconomics one-week changes on the same caveat. Mixing the two would be a basis error; they are presented in separate columns for exactly that reason.

The 10 September restatement, and it is the largest of the window. Published against finalised: WTI $104.08 against $102.48, Brent $109.29 against $107.63, heating oil $5.1353 against $5.0575, RBOB $3.4327 against $3.4574, natural gas $2.838 against $2.834, gold $4,362.01 against $4,407.30, silver $64.060 against $64.927, copper $6.5253 against $6.5475. The largest gap is $45.29 on gold, against $1.24 on WTI a session earlier, and the second largest $1.66 on Brent. Three things follow. First, the rule this report set on 9 September held and the capture time did not save it — the 18:15 ET capture produced a bigger error than the 18:30 one, which confirms that the error size is set by how far the electronic session runs past the settlement window rather than by minutes on the clock. Second, Investrade was right for the second consecutive session: its Thursday evening review recorded WTI at $102.48 and Brent at $107.63, the exact finalised settles, and its Friday review prices gold off a $4,407.30 base. A third-party figure that disagrees with a forming row is evidence about the row. Third, Thursday's published direction survives the restatement but its magnitude does not — the finalised moves are WTI +6.69% and Brent +6.34%, not the +8.36% and +7.98% published, and gold -1.20%, not -2.21%. The restated 10 September cracks are distillate $109.94 and gasoline $42.73 for a differential of $67.21, against the $111.60, $40.09 and $71.51 published — so the published differential was $4.30 too wide. The restated Brent-WTI is $5.15 and the restated gold-silver ratio 67.88.

The forming-row check, quantified. Volumes this session: Brent 518.27K against 526.07K (99%), natural gas 121.31K against 174.18K (70%), gold 185.69K against 201.30K (92%), WTI 373.31K against 437.38K (85%), heating oil 48.76K against 62.19K (78%), silver 52.64K against 71.69K (73%), RBOB 32.48K against 20.51K (158%) and copper 41.48K against 99.61K (42%). None is an order of magnitude below its predecessor, which is the test, and copper at 42% is the only row that warrants a caveat. Corroboration against TradingEconomics spot on the same capture: crude 99.990 against the board's 99.99, heating oil 4.9936 against 4.9936 and natural gas 2.8200 against 2.820 agree exactly; Brent 104.420 against 104.47 differs by five cents on a $104 barrel and gasoline 3.3199 against 3.3192 by seven ten-thousandths. The metals agree in direction with the expected futures-over-spot basis: gold spot 4,350.36 against Comex December 4,390.00 (a $39.64 or 0.91% carry) and silver spot 64.480 against 65.020 (0.84%), with copper spot 6.4695 against 6.5570 (1.35%). Bloomberg's wrap put WTI at $100.44, -2% and spot gold at $4,349.06, +0.7% against TradingEconomics' 4,350.36 and +0.76%; the Wall Street Journal's board read crude 99.99, -2.43% and gold 4,390.00, -0.39%, matching the published rows to the cent. Every row is corroborated at four points.

The crack spreads on a consistent October basis against $99.99 WTI:

The crack differential widened on a down day, which is the test the trade needed. Heating oil fell 1.26% against gasoline's 4.00% and crude's 2.43% — distillate outperformed the barrel by 1.17 percentage points and gasoline underperformed it by 1.57 — so the physical tightness that widened the differential on the way up widened it again on the way down. That is the opposite of a positioning artefact. The differential at $70.32 is within $1.19 of Thursday's restated window high, and the arithmetic behind it has independent corroboration in the official statistics: diesel prices rose 24.1% in a single month in the August producer-price data, and gasoline rose 3.9% in the August consumer print — the pass-through is arriving in the retail gasoline series while the wholesale distillate market stays tight.

Crude gave back a fifth, and what it did not give back is the week. Brent settled $104.47 and WTI $99.99, so the two-day move from the finalised 9 September base of $101.21 and $96.05 is still +3.22% and +4.10%, and on the spot basis crude is +9.30% and Brent +8.45% on the week. The Brent-WTI differential narrowed to $4.48 from a restated $5.15 — 67 cents of narrowing on a 2.4% down day, against five cents of widening on an 8% up day, so the seaborne premium compresses when the transit headline fades and does not expand when it flares. That asymmetry is the market's own statement about how much of the level is Hormuz. The supply side did not help the bears: the International Energy Agency's forecast of a 5.7m barrel-a-day supply decline for 2026 ran on the same tape, and Valero and Phillips 66 both printed 52-week highs while crude fell.

The metals stopped falling and silver outperformed for the first time in three sessions. Silver rose 0.14% to $65.020 and copper 0.15% to $6.5570, against gold -0.39% to $4,390.00 and platinum +0.03%, so the industrial pair bid while the monetary metal did not. The gold-silver ratio fell to 67.52 from a restated 67.88, recovering a tenth of Thursday's 2.90-point move. The mechanism is the same real-rate story running in reverse at one end of the curve only: the 5-year cheapened just 3 bp after 14 the day before, which removes the pressure that broke the complex, while the 30-year richened 2 bp, which is the tenor gold actually trades against. Gold's spot year-to-date return is back to +0.71% after the restatement erased the -0.01% this report published on Thursday, and the metal has now failed at roughly $4,480 on four consecutive sessions with Friday's high at $4,444.29. Natural gas fell 0.49% to $2.820, is -5.21% on the week and -23.49% on the year, and remains the only major commodity deeply negative in a complex where heating oil is up 135% and gasoline 94%.

Desk-style ideas for institutional investors. Each carries an explicit expression, catalyst and invalidation. These are not personalized investment advice; verify independently and size to your own mandate before acting.

1. The rates trade — long ZQU6 against short ZQZ6 made money and then hit its own invalidation; close it

Mark first. Long ZQU6 (September 2026) against short ZQZ6 (December 2026), DV01-matched one-for-one at $41.67 per basis point per contract, entered on 10 September at 96.288 / 95.965 for a spread of 32.3 bp, quarter size. Friday's mark: ZQU6 96.268, ZQZ6 95.910 — a spread of 35.8 bp. That is +3.5 bp, worth +$145.85 per contract pair before costs on a quarter, in one session.

And the invalidation fired, on the clause that was written for exactly this print. The written invalidation included "the September cumulative hike through 85% on either vendor." It cleared on both: CME at 86.5% and Investing.com at 85.5%. The trade was built on the proposition that a core CPI reproducing the producer-price split would make a 71% September the expensive leg; core printed +0.3% against +0.2%, the split did not reproduce, and the front leg cheapened 2.0 bp into a meeting that is now three-quarters-plus priced. The position is closed at the gain, not held, and the honest reading is that it made money for the wrong reason — the December leg cheapened 5.5 bp, more than the front, so the spread widened on back-end repricing rather than on the front-end cheapness the trade was short. Closed. Final mark +3.5 bp, +$145.85 per pair.

2. New — the rates trade, long ZQZ6 against short ZQZ7, quarter size

Expression: long ZQZ6 (December 2026) against short ZQZ7 (December 2027), DV01-matched one-for-one at $41.67 per basis point per contract, quarter size, entered at 95.910 / 95.450 for a spread of 46.0 bp. The position gains as the spread widens — that is, as the market adds tightening to 2027 faster than to the remainder of 2026.

The modal path, base case and tails. Modal path: a 25 bp hike on 16 September at 86.5% on CME and 85.5% on Investing.com, with ease at 0.0%; one hike still modal at October but by only 6.4 points over two; December's mode is two hikes at 47.3% with three at 27.4%; and five of eight 2027 meetings have moved up a full bucket to 4.50%-4.75% in one session. Base case: the committee hikes on 16 September and the strip's cumulative-above at December 2026 stays near 97.4% while 2027 keeps adding — the schedule is settled and only the destination is in play, which is the mirror image of the position that just closed. Tail one: a statement that frames the move as insurance rather than a cycle. eToro's Bret Kenwell put it precisely — "If the Fed presents the move as insurance against renewed inflation rather than the beginning of a prolonged hiking cycle, markets could interpret it as a dovish hike" — which would richen ZQZ7 faster than ZQZ6 and cost this spread. Tail two, and it is why the trade is on: retail sales at 08:30 on 16 September, consensus +0.9% against a -0.6% prior, landing five and a half hours before the decision, against Michigan sentiment at 47.8 and one-year inflation expectations at 4.6%. A weak retail print alongside a hot core CPI is the stagflation combination, and it adds terminal rate rather than near-term hikes. Practical implication: the front leg's probability sensitivity is roughly ten percentage points per basis point of ZQ price for a mid-month meeting, but December 2026 is not mid-month, so this spread is a genuine level trade on the 2027 terminal rather than a schedule trade — which is why it is a quarter. Catalyst: the 20-year auction 9/15 at 13:00 against a 5.204% prior; retail sales 9/16 at 08:30; the decision, projections and press conference 9/16 at 14:00; claims and Philadelphia Fed 9/17. Invalidation: the spread through 36.0 bp; or December 2026's hold probability back above 10%; or the 2027 modal range reverting to 4.25%-4.50% at five or more of the eight meetings. Sizing: a quarter, at $41.67 per basis point per pair.

3. Protection on the CCC cohort funded in IG — the named level printed exactly; hold the quarter, do not re-add

Mark. CCC 1,070 bp, +6 bp; HY 270 bp, -1 bp; IG 80 bp, -1 bp on the 10 September FRED update, taking the CCC-minus-HY differential to exactly 800 bp from 793 — a 7 bp gain, for a cumulative +34 bp across eight updates, on seven of which the pair has been paid. The honest reading. Wednesday's edition named 800 bp as the level that would say the tail has decoupled rather than lagged. It printed to the basis point, and the composition is better than the level: the tail widened on a session when both indices above it tightened, which is the first unambiguous decoupling of the window. The funding leg also stopped bleeding — LQD rose 0.02% to $104.36 after -0.93% on Thursday — so the duration-hedged quarter is now carrying cleanly. Action: hold the quarter; do not re-add to a half at the level the thesis was built to reach. The discipline that closed the ZQ spread at its own trigger applies here in reverse: a target reached is not a reason to increase risk. Catalyst: the 16 September decision; the first large investment-grade deal to clear against a 4.96% ten-year; quarter-end funding from the 15th. Invalidation, unchanged: the differential back through 750 bp, or IG widening beyond 90 bp. Sizing: a quarter, duration-hedged.

4. Long volatility on the semiconductor complex — marked out as instructed, at a loss; closed

Mark. October volatility on the semiconductor proxy, a quarter, expressed in premium rather than delta. Thursday's edition suspended the time-decay override for cause and instructed: "hold the quarter through CPI; mark it out on 11 September regardless of outcome." The outcome was bad. VIX fell 11.21% to 15.84, giving back 2.00 of the 3.52 points the surface had added across four sessions, and SOX rose 1.81% against the Nasdaq 100's 0.91% — the semiconductor index outperformed by 0.90 points on an up session, which is one-tenth of a point short of the replacement invalidation written on Thursday and entirely beside the point. The honest reading. The position had its best session on Thursday and its worst on Friday, and the round trip is a net loss in premium. The judgment call to suspend the mechanical decay clock and hold through the print was the right process and the wrong outcome: holding a long-volatility position into a scheduled binary is a bet that the event repriced the surface, and the event de-priced it instead, because the print resolved the uncertainty rather than compounding it. That is recorded as a loss, not as a technicality. Action: closed, as instructed, at a loss in premium. No replacement long-volatility expression is proposed into a meeting that is 86.5% priced.

5. Short the credit-bureau complex against long the S&P 500 financials — one session left on the invalidation clock; hold the quarter

Mark. Fair Isaac +2.64% to $986.03 and Equifax +0.53% to $168.94; TransUnion again did not appear in the 494-line component capture and no independently sourced close is asserted, so the basket is marked on two of three names at +1.59%, against S&P 500 financials at +0.83% — a 0.76-point loss on the pair, and cumulatively -0.48 points across four sessions, still a net gain. The honest reading. The invalidation is the basket recovering more than half of the 4 September decline within five sessions, a trigger of 8.34%. The cumulative recovery is now +4.57%, so the trigger is 3.77 points away having been 5.40 on Thursday, and one session of the five remains. Fair Isaac has now added $25.36 in two sessions. Action: hold the quarter through Monday's final session of the window and close the position on the deadline regardless of the mark — the thesis was a five-session reaction-function trade and it expires on its own terms. Do not extend it because the trigger did not fire. Catalyst: any FHFA follow-through on bi-merge; sell-side mortgage-channel revisions. Invalidation, unchanged: the trigger above, or an explicit FHFA statement retreating from bi-merge. Sizing: a quarter, dollar-neutral.

6. Long the October distillate crack against the gasoline crack — tested on the downside and held; hold the quarter

Mark. Entered on 9 September at a $66.31 differential on the then-published basis, which now restates to $66.79 on twice-finalised historical-board settles — the 9 September RBOB row itself re-finalised from 3.2211 to 3.2106 during the week. Friday: distillate crack $109.74, gasoline crack $39.42, differential $70.32 — a $3.53 gain from the restated entry. Why the downside test matters more than the upside one. The written invalidation is "a crude session above 2% in which heating oil underperforms gasoline." Friday delivered a -2.43% crude session, comfortably above the two-per-cent threshold in magnitude, and heating oil outperformed at -1.26% against gasoline's -4.00% — a 2.74-point margin, against the narrow 0.39-point win on Thursday's +8% test. The mechanism has now been tested in both directions inside forty-eight hours and held both times, which is materially stronger evidence than either test alone. Corroboration arrived in the official statistics on the same morning: August CPI put gasoline +3.9%, more than a third of the entire monthly all-items increase, against a wholesale distillate market the producer-price data showed +24.1% in a month. Action: hold the quarter, do not add. The differential is $1.19 below the restated window high and the entry was already a re-entry above a prior close; two successful tests are a reason to keep the position, not to size it up. Catalyst: the EIA report on 9/16 at 10:30; any Gulf de-escalation headline; the International Energy Agency's 5.7m barrel-a-day 2026 supply-decline forecast. Invalidation: the differential back through $55; or a crude session above 2% in either direction in which heating oil underperforms gasoline. Sizing: a quarter, barrel-for-barrel.

Prior closes, marked forward. The long ZQZ6 against short ZQZ7 spread, closed on Thursday at +15.0 bp when the December 2026 mode flipped to two hikes, would have gained another 4.5 bp to 46.0 bp — and it is re-entered above as idea 2 at a level 19.5 bp wider than its original entry, which is recorded plainly rather than presented as a new idea. The long 20-year against short 30-year, closed on Thursday at -2 bp, would have lost another basis point: 20s30s widened to -3 bp, with the 20-year at 5.38% and the 30-year at 5.35%, so the decision to close on the event rather than wait for the mechanical trigger saved money. The AI-halo basket against long Nvidia, closed on 1 September, would have lost 0.17 points: Fortinet -1.75% and Adobe +1.36% average -0.20% against Nvidia's -0.03%. The short-debasement basket against long dollar, closed on 3 September, would have gained fractionally — gold -0.39% against a flat dollar.

The vol note. VIX closed 15.84, down 2.00 points or 11.21%, with a session range of 15.59 to 17.71 and a close twenty-five cents off the low, on a day the index rose 0.86% — a 13.0-to-1 ratio of volatility decline to index gain, almost exactly the mirror of Thursday's 14.4-to-1 in the other direction. The five-observation path is 14.53 → 15.72 → 16.46 → 17.84 → 15.84, so the surface has given back 57% of the four-session build in a single session. A 15.84 handle asks for roughly a 0.99% daily move against realised index moves of 0.48%, 0.58%, 0.58% and 0.86% — so index volatility is still rich to realised, but the premium has compressed from roughly three-to-one to under two-to-one, which is the only genuine change in the argument. The instruction that follows is narrower than last week's. Selling index gamma into the meeting is now a materially worse trade than it was on Thursday because the event premium has already been paid out, and the 17-18 September expiry that carried the richest premium on the curve has a decision priced at 86.5% — there is very little left in it. What has not compressed is the dispersion: a 494-name distribution running from Hewlett Packard Enterprise +12.44% to FMC -5.63%, an 18.1-point spread on a 0.86% index day, and MOVE up 6.97% to 82.09 on its 10 September vintage while VIX fell 11.21%. Own dispersion and single-name convexity into the meeting; do not own or sell the index level.

The crowded consensuses worth stress-testing, with the numbers that would break them.

What VIX is and is not pricing. At 15.84, down 11.21% and back inside the 14-to-17 band it broke one session earlier, the index option surface is asking for roughly a 0.99% daily move against four consecutive realised moves of 0.48%, 0.58%, 0.58% and 0.86%. It has stopped pricing the CPI print, correctly, and it is pricing a 16 September decision that is already 86.5% settled. It is not pricing the statement, which is the live variable. It is not pricing the rate market's own view of itself: MOVE rose 6.97% to 82.09 on its 10 September vintage, a new high for the move, on the session VIX fell 11.21% — the two surfaces have not disagreed this sharply in the window. And it is not pricing the dispersion underneath: 328 up against 164 down on a session whose single-name distribution ran 18.1 points from Hewlett Packard Enterprise +12.44% to FMC -5.63%, with storage down 3 to 4 per cent while compute rose 8 to 12. A market whose index volatility has collapsed back into its range while its rate volatility makes new highs and its internals run eighteen points wide is a market where the level is the distraction and the composition is the risk.

Full data notes, conflict reconciliations, the overnight read-through and the categorized source links are in the companion file US_CrossAsset_Daily_2026-09-11_DataNotes.txt.