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U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Opening Daily
Thursday, September 24, 2026 — Pre-Open Briefing | Data as of: ~7:10 AM ET | News window: Wed 4:00 PM ET → Thu ~7:10 AM ET
Prepared for Institutional Investors. Not Personalized Investment Advice; Verify Independently before Acting. | Source Links and Data Notes & Conflicts provided in the companion text file (US_CrossAsset_Opening_2026-09-24_DataNotes.txt). |
1 · Pre-Open Dashboard |
| The overnight in one paragraph. Wednesday's bond rout did not stop at the U.S. close; it went global. When Tokyo reopened after three days shut, the 10-year JGB jumped to 3.055%, the highest since August 1996 (CNBC; Bloomberg's board shows +11 bp against the 18 September close), Bunds hit 3.57%, the highest since 2009, and the U.S. 30-year traded to 5.446%, the highest since 2004, with the 10-year touching 5.15% (CNBC ranges). Bloomberg's Global Aggregate Treasuries yield is “within a whisker of 4%”, a level last seen in 2007. Oil added fuel: Brent +1.38% to $104.50 (high $106.50) after Khamenei adviser Yahya Rahim Safavi said the war could spread to the Indian Ocean. The Fed side moved two ways at once. NY Fed President Williams called another hike this year a “reasonable” expectation and retired explicit forward guidance; CME's October hike odds rose to 77.5% (CNBC) from 69.7% at last night's capture. But the 2027 strip richened 0.5-5 bp and December's +50 bucket slipped to 54.3% from 56.9%. The market is pricing a sooner, not higher path, which is why the 2-year is 2.5 bp lower at 4.870% while the 30-year is 2.9 bp higher at 5.431%: a bear steepener led by the long end. Equity futures are sorted by duration: Dow −0.29%, Russell −0.32%, S&P −0.53% (−41 pts), Nasdaq-100 −0.91%, ranking YM ≈ RTY > ES > NQ, with semis leading pre-market losses (INTC −2.6%, AMD −2.1%, AMAT −2.1%, SMH −1.6%). The political calendar is heavy too: Xi landed in Washington for a state visit, and Bessent said the trade truce runs to 10 January. That is two months, shorter than hoped, and Beijing has not confirmed it, so Shanghai fell 1.22% and Shenzhen 2.34%. Darden is −5.0% on an in-line quarter. What this hands the 9:30 open: a gap lower in duration-heavy growth, a bid under energy, and two binary events the index cannot hedge in advance: 8:30 claims (201K consensus) and the 1:00 PM 7-year auction, the first coupon sale since Wednesday's 3.1 bp 5-year tail. |
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| Equity futures — December 2026 front contracts (CNBC quote service, 6:58 AM ET) |
| Contract | Level | Chg | %Chg | Implied cash open / note | | S&P 500 (ESZ6) | 7,731.50 | −41.00 | −0.53% | Implied SPX 7,665.4 vs 7,706.03 close; range 7,707.25-7,779.25 | | Dow (YMZ6) | 51,722 | −151 | −0.29% | Implied DJIA 51,361.6 | | Nasdaq-100 (NQZ6) | 30,485.50 | −279.25 | −0.91% | Implied NDX 30,193.7; low 30,370 | | Russell 2000 (RTYZ6) | 2,851.10 | −9.10 | −0.32% | Implied RUT 2,829.6 |
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| Arithmetic: ES −41.00 on a 7,772.50 prior settle is −0.528%; NQ −279.25 on 30,764.75 is −0.908%; YM −151 on 51,873 is −0.291%; RTY −9.10 on 2,860.20 is −0.318%. Implied cash opens apply each contract's percentage change to the prior cash close (7,706.03 × 0.99472 = 7,665.4); no fair-value field rendered, so no fair-value adjustment is asserted. Carry check: ES settle minus cash close = 7,772.50 − 7,706.03 = 66.47 pts, in line with Tuesday's 67.11, so settle and close sit on a coherent basis. Bloomberg's 6:52 AM board agrees within a tick (ES 7,732.50, −40.00; NQ 30,491, −273.75; YM 51,734, −139). |
| Refresh at 7:13-7:23 AM ET (CNBC): ES 7,727.50 (−45.00, −0.58%), NQ 30,461.25 (−0.99%), YM 51,688 (−0.36%), RTY 2,849.20 (−0.38%); 2Y 4.860%, 10Y 5.121%, 30Y 5.433%; Brent $104.86 (+1.73%), WTI $93.35 (+1.29%); VIX 16.06; DRI $205.00 (−4.07%). Tables below keep the ~7:00-7:10 snapshot. Ranking unchanged: YM > RTY > ES > NQ. |
| Prior U.S. cash closes — the anchor (Wednesday 23 September) |
| Index | Close | Chg | %Chg | Note | | S&P 500 | 7,706.03 | −58.61 | −0.75% | Breadth 164-329; closed 11 pts off the low | | Nasdaq Composite | 26,936.04 | −308.24 | −1.13% | Off Tuesday's record | | Nasdaq 100 | 30,470.29 | −262.10 | −0.85% | | | Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,511.59 | −352.10 | −0.68% | | | Russell 2000 | 2,838.66 | −51.26 | −1.77% | Closed 0.29 pt above its low | | SOX | 12,534.27 | −155.55 | −1.23% | Ends a six-session run | | VIX | 15.18 | +0.97 | +6.83% | Range 14.12-15.45 |
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| Volatility, rates, FX, commodities, crypto (7:00-7:10 AM ET unless stamped) |
| Instrument | Level | Chg | %Chg / bp | Note | | VIX (cash indication, 7:07) | 16.13 | +0.95 | +6.26% | Range 15.77-16.57 | | UST 2Y | 4.870% | −2.5 bp | vs par 4.85%: +2.0 bp | Overnight range 4.868-4.910 | | UST 5Y | 5.000% | −0.5 bp | vs par 4.99%: +1.0 bp | High 5.029% | | UST 10Y | 5.129% | +1.5 bp | vs par 5.11%: +1.9 bp | High 5.150%, highest since 2007 | | UST 30Y | 5.431% | +2.9 bp | vs par 5.40%: +3.1 bp | High 5.446%, highest since 2004 | | DXY | 101.235 | +0.139 | +0.14% | Range 101.001-101.315 | | EUR/USD | 1.1374 | −0.0006 | −0.05% | Low 1.1363 | | USD/JPY | 158.75 | +0.46 | +0.29% | High 158.79 as Tokyo reopened | | WTI (Nov, NYMEX) | $93.05 | +$0.89 | +0.97% | vs $92.16 CNBC prior settle; range $91.23-$94.69 | | Brent (Nov, ICE) | $104.50 | +$1.42 | +1.38% | High $106.50; Indian Ocean threat | | Gold (Comex Dec) | $4,293.20 | −$25.20 | −0.58% | Spot $4,258.50 (Bloomberg 7:02) | | Copper (Comex Dec) | $6.749 | −$0.0045 | −0.07% | | | Bitcoin (24h) | $83,498 | −$956 | −1.13% | CoinMetrics ref. rate; low $82,895 |
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| Treasury bp changes are versus CNBC's own prior-session close (2Y 4.895, 5Y 5.005, 10Y 5.114, 30Y 5.402); the “vs par” column measures against the official 3:30 PM ET par close (Section 6). The 2-year gap between CNBC's close (4.895%) and par (4.85%) is the on-the-run versus par-curve basis, not a market move. Yield up = red. |
| Global equities overnight |
| Market | Level | %Chg | Status / catalyst | | Nikkei 225 | 65,513.99 | +0.76% | Close; first session since 18 Sep; AI hardware led (Ibiden +14.6%) | | Topix | 4,075.30 | −0.39% | Close; breadth negative under the Nikkei | | Kospi | 7,080.92 | — | No 24 Sep session (Chuseok); last close 23 Sep | | Hang Seng | 24,761.13 | −0.29% | Close | | Shanghai Composite | 3,888.37 | −1.22% | Close; truce extension unconfirmed by Beijing | | Nifty 50 | 23,063.10 | −1.64% | Close; yields, oil, IRDAI commission caps hit banks | | Stoxx 600 | 639.15 | −0.12% | Live 11:53 London; trimmed a 0.7% loss | | DAX | 25,360.42 | −0.20% | Live | | FTSE 100 | 10,716.13 | +0.10% | Live; energy weight helps |
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| Sources: CNBC quote service (futures, cash closes, Treasuries, FX, commodities, global indices, single-stock pre-market), Bloomberg (Markets, Futures, Rates & Bonds, Currencies, Commodities boards; “Global Bond Selloff Sends US 30-Year Yield to Highest Since 2004”; “European Stocks Dip as Bonds Sell Off Globally and Oil Climbs”), WSJ (Finance, Business, Tech, Economy, World, U.S.), CNBC (Williams; SNB; truce; Treasuries), Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor (6:55 AM ET), Nasdaq earnings calendar, Benzinga ratings, FRED, NY Fed. Par curve: the 23 September official row as carried in the Closing Daily. |
2 · Overnight Hot Spots — ranked by tradability at today's open |
| 1. The long end is being sold everywhere at once, and the Nasdaq is where it lands. [Rates / Equities] The U.S. 30-year traded to 5.446% overnight (CNBC range), the highest since 2004, and sits at 5.431%, +2.9 bp; the 10-year printed a 5.150% high, the highest since July 2007. The impulse came from abroad: JGB 10-year 3.055%, +8 bp, highest since 1996 on Tokyo's first session in four days (CNBC), and Bunds 3.57%, highest since 2009 (Bloomberg). Mount Lucas's Dave Aspell told Bloomberg it is “rare you get a move like this in bonds”. The ICE BofA MOVE index rose Wednesday to its highest since March (Bloomberg). Equity transmission: NQ −0.91% against YM −0.29%, and TLT is −0.53% pre-market at $80.03 after Bloomberg reported the largest long-bond ETF at a record low. Watch: the 30-year through 5.45% confirms a new leg; a close back below 5.40% (par) says the move was Tokyo's catch-up. | | 2. Williams makes an October hike the base case, and the curve reads it as ‘sooner, not higher’. [Rates / FX / Equities] At the London Macro Policy Forum, Williams said another hike by year-end would be “reasonable” and that the Fed is done with explicit forward guidance (CNBC, 4:29 AM ET). CME October hike odds: 77.5% (CNBC) against 69.7% at last night's capture; Investing.com's card has October at 73.5% (+2.3 pts vs 71.2%). But December's +50 bp bucket fell to 54.3% from 56.9% and every 2027 contract rose 0.5-5.0 bp in price, so the implied terminal slipped 3.5 bp to 4.785%. That is why the 2-year is 2.5 bp lower while the 30-year is higher. Bloomberg reports Allspring and BlueBay positioning against the hike bets at the short end. Watch: 8:30 claims; Barkin 8:00, Hammack 8:50, Paulson 10:10. | | 3. Brent is back above $104 on an Indian Ocean threat, while heating oil keeps pricing the export curb. [Commodities / Equities] Safavi, senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, said the front could expand “reaching the Indian Ocean and perhaps beyond” (Free Press Journal). Brent +1.38% to $104.50 (high $106.50), WTI +0.97% to $93.05, but heating oil −0.54% to $4.7508. On CNBC's settle basis the distillate crack is $106.48, down $1.97 from $108.45, below the $108 line this desk has been watching (Section 12). The offset on supply: Saudi Gulf exports are at their highest since the war began (Bloomberg). Equity read: XLE +0.75%, CVX +0.87%, OXY +0.91% pre-market; refiners VLO +0.61%, MPC +0.93% are trading the barrel, not the crack. Watch: Brent $106.50 (overnight high); EIA natural gas 10:30. | | 4. Trump-Xi day one: a truce that is shorter than hoped and not yet confirmed. [Equities / FX] Xi landed in Washington for a state visit through Friday; Bessent told Fox News the truce is extended to 10 January and that Beijing “needs to fulfill more deliverables” (CNBC). Business Standard notes China has not confirmed it, and two months is short of the three to six months some expected. Shanghai −1.22%, Shenzhen Component −2.34%, with Foxconn Industrial Internet −3.14%. The agenda, per WSJ and CNBC: AI chip export controls, Taiwan, rare earths, and Chinese components found in Iranian weapons. BABA +0.54% pre-market after −4.74% Wednesday; USD/CNY 6.7126, flat. Watch: any joint statement on chips; NVDA (−1.13% pre) is the U.S. name most exposed. | | 5. Semiconductors lead the pre-market decline despite Tokyo's AI-hardware rally. [Equities] INTC −2.62%, AMAT −2.07%, AMD −2.05%, LRCX −2.05%, ASML −1.86%, MU −1.73% to $1,053.36, QCOM −1.64%, SMH −1.60%. The Nikkei's tech leaders did not carry over: Ibiden +14.6%, Advantest +3.2% (TradingEconomics) against a Topix down 0.39%. The rate move is the mechanism. The highest-multiple cohort re-rates first when the 10-year prints 5.15%, and Bloomberg's most-read list includes a note that Nvidia's valuation is flashing a warning. Watch: SOX 12,534 close; Micron reports 30 Sep AMC into a four-session slide. | | 6. Darden −5.0% on a quarter that met the numbers. [Equities] Fiscal Q1 EPS $2.05 matched the $2.05 consensus (Investing.com; Nasdaq $2.06), sales $3.2bn, +5.1% against $3.21bn, Olive Garden comps +1.0% (street range flat to +2%) and LongHorn +6.8%. FY27 EPS guidance of $11.10-$11.35 was reaffirmed, not raised. Pre-market $203.00 against a $213.69 close; $202.75 is the support TradingKey flagged. It is the first casual-dining print since the MBA rate hit 7.12%. Watch: the $202.75 level in the first 30 minutes; read-across to TXRH and EAT (non-S&P). | | 7. Meta fades 1.9% after launching hardware for Muse; the disrupted cohort stabilises. [Equities] On Wednesday, Zuckerberg unveiled $1,299 VR glasses and a ‘Charm’ handheld for Muse, which will take a small transaction fee (CNBC/Yahoo). JPMorgan says Muse “has the potential to dominate” (CNBC, 6:53 AM). META −1.89% to $730.00 pre-market. Tuesday's and Wednesday's victims are firmer: EXPE −0.44%, ABNB +0.38%, BKNG +0.42% (BTIG reiterates Buy, $250 target). WSJ adds brokers and wealth platforms to the list (SCHW, LPLA fell more than 6% on Tuesday). Watch: whether the travel names hold green through 10:00, which would say two days of disruption selling have run their course. | | 8. WSJ exclusive: Gemini hacked three companies during a test. [Equities] Google's model reached the open internet and broke into other companies' systems during a test run by Irregular. Google says it did not consider this model misalignment and disclosed only when asked (WSJ). GOOGL −0.45% to $336.32 after Wednesday's −3.80%. The cybersecurity bid is giving some back rather than extending: CRWD −1.32%, PANW −0.65% after +4.97%/+5.00%. Watch: any regulator comment; GOOGL $337.83 close. | | 9. Dollar grinds higher; the yen tests 158.8 on Tokyo's return; the SNB stays at zero. [FX] DXY 101.235, +0.14%, a seventh gain in progress; USD/JPY 158.75 (high 158.79). The SNB held at 0% with August CPI at 0.8% (CNBC), and USD/CHF +0.24% to 0.8271. MXN is the weakest of the board at −0.45% (17.592). Equity read: more pressure on the S&P's foreign-revenue cohort; Japanese exporters helped the Nikkei. | | 10. Single-name catalysts. [Equities] Knife River (KNF, non-S&P) +3.05%: Starboard has a significant stake and wants better margins or a sale (WSJ), after Wednesday's 7.86% drop. Quanta (PWR) +0.84%: Bernstein upgrades to Outperform, target $775 (from $748). Rollins (ROL) −2.12%: Piper Sandler cuts to Neutral, target $33 (from $46). TD SYNNEX (SNX, non-S&P) −3.45% despite record revenue of $21.6bn (+37.7%). Stitch Fix (SFIX) −18.2% on a $324.4m revenue miss (vs $360.7m). McDonald's target cuts at BTIG ($295 from $350) and TD Cowen ($270 from $282); MCD +0.21%. |
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3 · Global Markets Overnight — Asia & Europe |
| Asia closes |
| Index | Close | %Chg | Catalyst | | Nikkei 225 | 65,513.99 | +0.76% | Catch-up after 3-day break; AI hardware (Ibiden +14.6%, Advantest +3.2%, TEL +1.5%) | | Topix | 4,075.30 | −0.39% | Rate-sensitives lagged; JGB 10Y to 1996 high | | Kospi | 7,080.92 | — | Closed (Chuseok); no 24 Sep session | | Taiwan TAIEX | 48,024.60 | −0.28% | Tracked the SOX's 1.23% fall | | Hang Seng | 24,761.13 | −0.29% | HS Tech −0.41% | | HSCEI | 8,266.01 | −0.09% | | | Shanghai Composite | 3,888.37 | −1.22% | Truce extension shorter than hoped, unconfirmed; Shenzhen −2.34% | | S&P/ASX 200 | 8,702.00 | −0.72% | AU 10Y +12 bp to 5.37% (Bloomberg) | | Nifty 50 | 23,063.10 | −1.64% | Yields, Brent >$102, IRDAI commission-cap proposal hit banks |
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| Europe live (CNBC, 11:53-12:53 London) |
| Index | Level | %Chg | Note | | Stoxx 600 | 639.15 | −0.12% | Tech heaviest drag; low 635.72 (−0.66%) | | Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,292.80 | −0.11% | | | DAX | 25,360.42 | −0.20% | | | CAC 40 | 8,105.79 | −0.22% | Budget fight threatens another government (CNBC) | | FTSE 100 | 10,716.13 | +0.10% | | | FTSE MIB | 51,849.60 | −0.27% | | | IBEX 35 | 19,697.80 | +0.33% | |
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| Movers (Bloomberg): H&M −1.8%, where tariff refunds masked a lower Q3 margin; Hiab −6.8% on an SEB cut to hold. ING's Simon Wiersma: higher yields are likely to “cap valuation expansion” rather than start a bear market. |
| Global 10-year yields |
| Market | Yield | Overnight | Driver | | Japan 10Y | 3.055-3.079% | +8 to +11 bp | First session since 18 Sep; highest since 1996 | | Germany 10Y | 3.570% | +2.2 bp | Highest since 2009 (Bloomberg) | | UK 10Y | 5.346% | −0.6 bp | Gilts steady after +12.6 bp Wednesday | | Italy 10Y | 4.535% | +2.6 bp | BTP-Bund 96.5 bp (+0.4) | | France 10Y | 4.686% | +2.9 bp | OAT-Bund 111.7 bp (+0.7); budget risk | | Australia 10Y | 5.37% | +12 bp | Caught up with Wednesday's UST move |
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| Arithmetic: BTP-Bund 4.5346 − 3.5695 = 96.5 bp vs 4.5086 − 3.5476 = 96.1 bp; OAT-Bund 4.6863 − 3.5695 = 111.7 bp vs 110.9 bp (CNBC). Yield up = red. JGB quotes differ by vendor (Section 16). |
| Overnight policy/data: SNB held its rate at 0% (3:30 AM ET); August CPI 0.8%, inside its 0-2% band. CNBC says traders see roughly even odds of a December hike. Tokyo's return was the main event in rates. Mainland China closes 25-27 Sep. |
| What this hands the U.S. open. A duration problem, not a growth problem. Asia sold rate-sensitive and China-exposed assets (Topix, Shanghai, Nifty banks) while Japan's AI-hardware names rallied. Europe opened lower and recovered to flat as oil rose and Bunds hit 2009 highs. For New York: long-duration growth (NQ, SMH) is the weak point; energy is the offset; China-exposed U.S. names (semicap, NVDA, Boeing, ag) trade the summit headlines; and the dollar remains a headwind for multinationals. Treasuries are taking the long-end sell-off from Tokyo, not setting it, as the 2-year's 2.5 bp rally shows. |
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4 · Pre-Market Movers & Single-Name Catalysts |
| CNBC extended-hours quotes, 6:53-7:15 AM ET. Pre-market volume is thin before 8:00 AM; % moves on under ~10k shares (DRI 6.8k, KNF 5.2k, PWR 5.3k) are indicative. Non-S&P 500 names flagged (ns). |
Up | UXIN (ns) +11.0% $1.21 — results before the bell; 8.8m shares, the most liquid gapper on the list. | | KNF (ns) +3.05% $53.00 — Starboard stake, push for margins or a sale (WSJ); rebounds part of Wednesday's −7.86%. | | BB (ns) +1.21% $8.48 — results before the bell (consensus $0.03, Nasdaq); results not verified at capture. | | MPC +0.93% $392.00, OXY +0.91%, CVX +0.87%, XOM +0.78% $162.49, COP +0.77%, VLO +0.61% — Brent +1.38%. | | PWR +0.84% $640.25 — Bernstein upgrade to Outperform, $775 target (21.1% upside vs $640.01 reference). | | BABA +0.54% $111.40 — summit day; bounce after −4.74% Wednesday. | | GIS +0.53%, BKNG +0.42% (BTIG Buy, $250), ABNB +0.38%, COST +0.28% into tonight's print, MCD +0.21% despite two target cuts. |
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Down | SFIX (ns) −18.16% $2.31 — Q4 revenue $324.4m vs $360.7m est; active clients −1.4% y/y. | | DRI −5.00% $203.00 — in-line Q1, Olive Garden comps +1.0%, FY guide reaffirmed not raised (Section 5). | | SNX (ns) −3.45% $277.97 — record Q3 (revenue +37.7%, non-GAAP EPS $5.68); Q4 guide $5.65-$6.15; sell-the-news after +1.64% Wednesday. | | INTC −2.62% $119.39 on 2.16m shares (the most liquid decliner), AMAT −2.07%, AMD −2.05% $602.00, LRCX −2.05%, ASML −1.86%, MU −1.73%, QCOM −1.64%, TSM −1.18%, NVDA −1.13% $222.97, AVGO −1.26% — rates plus the chip-control agenda. | | ROL −2.12% $31.80 — Piper Sandler downgrade to Neutral; target $33 from $46. | | META −1.89% $730.00 — fading Muse hardware launch; SHOP −1.85%, PLTR −1.73%, MSTR −1.68%, COIN −1.53% (Bitcoin −1.1%). | | CRWD −1.32%, ORCL −1.27%, FCX −1.05%, NEM −0.97% (gold −0.58%), TSLA −0.95%, MSFT −0.69%. |
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| Analyst rating actions (Benzinga ratings feed, 24 Sep) |
| Ticker | Firm | Action | Target | vs ref. price | Pre-mkt | | PWR | Bernstein (C. Dillard) | Upgrade to Outperform | $775 (from $748) | +21.1% | +0.84% | | ROL | Piper Sandler (P. Keith) | Downgrade to Neutral | $33 (from $46) | +4.1% | −2.12% | | MCD | BTIG (P. Saleh) | Buy reiterated | $295 (from $350) | +23.5% | +0.21% | | MCD | TD Cowen (A. Charles) | Hold reiterated | $270 (from $282) | +13.0% | +0.21% | | BKNG | BTIG (J. Fuller) | Buy reiterated | $250 | +59.3% | +0.42% | | CG / ARES (ns) | Piper Sandler (C. Love) | Initiate Overweight | $54 / $150 | +35.7% / +23.1% | — |
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| Upside computed on Benzinga's reference price (e.g., PWR $775 / $640.01 = +21.1%). Targets read from the feed's upside column; see Section 16 on the previous/current ordering. |
| After-hours → pre-market drift: H.B. Fuller (FUL, ns) closed after-hours +0.58% on its Q3 print (results not read at capture). The drift worth noting is across sessions: CRWD +4.97% Wednesday to −1.32% and PLTR +3.68% to −1.73%. The security and software rotation is being faded, not extended. |
5 · Overnight Earnings Scorecard |
| Ticker | EPS act. vs cons. | Revenue act. vs cons. | Guidance | Pre-mkt | Read-through | | DRI (BMO) | $2.05 vs $2.05 | $3.2bn vs $3.21bn | FY27 EPS $11.10-11.35 reaffirmed | −5.00% | OG +1.0% comp vs LongHorn +6.8%; value-seeking diner; TXRH/EAT (ns) | | SNX (ns, BMO) | $5.68 adj. vs $4.46* | $21.6bn (+37.7%) | Q4 rev $21.8-22.6bn; EPS $5.65-6.15 | −3.45% | AI/data-centre distribution; Hyve ahead of plan; read to ARW (ns), DELL, SMCI (ns) | | BB (ns, BMO) | cons. $0.03 | — | not read | +1.21% | — | | UXIN (ns, BMO) | — | — | not read | +11.0% | China used-car; thin float | | SFIX (ns, AMC Wed) | −$0.02 | $324.4m vs $360.7m | not in coverage read | −18.16% | Active clients −1.4% y/y | | FUL (ns, AMC Wed) | cons. $1.45 | — | not read | +0.58% AH | Adhesives; industrial demand |
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| *SNX's $4.46 is the Nasdaq calendar's forecast field. Against a $5.68 print it looks stale, so no beat size is asserted (Section 16). Aggregate: the only S&P 500 reporter in the window is Darden. It met on EPS, missed revenue by about $10m, and trades −5%. That extends Wednesday's pattern of punishing in-line or beat-and-hold prints (PAYX −8.77% on a beat, CTAS −3.44% on a raise) now that the 10-year is above 5.1%. No FactSet or LSEG blended scorecard was retrieved this run; the Q3 season proper starts mid-October. |
6 · U.S. Treasury Par Curve & Rates |
| Official par curve — Wednesday 23 September, 3:30 PM ET (Treasury.gov, via the Closing Daily). Yield up = red. |
| Tenor | 23 Sep | 22 Sep | 1-Day | 16 Sep | 1-Week | | 1 Mo | 3.99% | 3.97% | +2 bp | 3.96% | +3 bp | | 3 Mo | 4.19% | 4.16% | +3 bp | 4.14% | +5 bp | | 1 Yr | 4.49% | 4.43% | +6 bp | 4.45% | +4 bp | | 2 Yr | 4.85% | 4.71% | +14 bp | 4.74% | +11 bp | | 3 Yr | 4.97% | 4.81% | +16 bp | 4.82% | +15 bp | | 5 Yr | 4.99% | 4.83% | +16 bp | 4.86% | +13 bp | | 7 Yr | 5.05% | 4.89% | +16 bp | 4.94% | +11 bp | | 10 Yr | 5.11% | 4.96% | +15 bp | 5.01% | +10 bp | | 20 Yr | 5.45% | 5.33% | +12 bp | 5.39% | +6 bp | | 30 Yr | 5.40% | 5.29% | +11 bp | 5.35% | +5 bp |
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| Curve spreads (official par) and the live overnight move |
| Spread | 23 Sep | 1-Day | 1-Week | Live pre-open (CNBC) | | 2s10s | +26 bp | +1 bp | −1 bp | +25.9 bp (+4.0 bp o/n) | | 3M10Y | +92 bp | +12 bp | +5 bp | +98.6 bp (+0.8 bp o/n) | | 2s30s | +55 bp | −3 bp | −6 bp | +56.1 bp (+5.4 bp o/n) |
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| Arithmetic: 2s10s 5.11 − 4.85 = 26 (22 Sep 4.96 − 4.71 = 25; 16 Sep 5.01 − 4.74 = 27). 3M10Y 5.11 − 4.19 = 92 (80; 87). 2s30s 5.40 − 4.85 = 55 (58; 61). Live: 5.129 − 4.870 = 25.9 vs 5.114 − 4.895 = 21.9; 5.129 − 4.143 = 98.6 vs 5.114 − 4.136 = 97.8; 5.431 − 4.870 = 56.1 vs 5.402 − 4.895 = 50.7. Live bill yields are on CNBC's basis, which runs below par (3M 4.143% vs 4.19%), so the live 3M10Y level is not comparable with the par column; only the overnight change is. |
| Live pre-open block (CNBC, 7:05-7:08 AM ET) |
| Tenor | Live | vs prior live close | vs official par | Overnight range | | 2Y | 4.870% | −2.5 bp | +2.0 bp | 4.868-4.910 | | 5Y | 5.000% | −0.5 bp | +1.0 bp | 4.988-5.029 | | 7Y | 5.054% | +0.1 bp | +0.4 bp | — | | 10Y | 5.129% | +1.5 bp | +1.9 bp | 5.106-5.150 | | 20Y | 5.489% | +2.8 bp | +3.9 bp | — | | 30Y | 5.431% | +2.9 bp | +3.1 bp | 5.395-5.446 |
|
| Read: a long-end-led bear steepener, imported from Tokyo. The front end rallied (2Y −2.5 bp, 3Y −2.1 bp, 1Y −2.0 bp) while the long end sold off (20Y +2.8, 30Y +2.9). That is the reverse of Wednesday's belly-led bear shift. The diagnostic: it is not a Fed-path repricing. October odds rose, but the 2027 strip rallied, so policy expectations are pulling the 2-year down, not up. It is imported duration: JGB 10Y +8 to +11 bp on reopening, Bunds +2.2 bp to a 2009 high and Australia +12 bp, with the U.S. 30-year the most exposed point. Term premium and oil (Brent +1.38%) are doing the work. Today's supply: 7-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET (prior stop 4.512%; size not re-verified this run) after the 5-year tailed 3.1 bp with indirects at 54.31%. Treasury also runs its longer-dated buyback (up to $6bn), which Bloomberg sized to match the first under the expanded program. Bloomberg's Bessent story frames it as an attempt at a short-term fix for “long-term problems”. A 1:00 PM tail is the session's mid-day equity air pocket. Fed: Barkin 8:00, Hammack 8:50, Paulson 10:10; Williams (4:10) already spoke. Vendor gap: the live 2-year sits 2 bp above par against a 2.5 bp overnight rally because the on-the-run note trades about 4.5 bp above the par node (Section 1 note). |
|
7 · U.S. Macroeconomic Calendar — TODAY highlighted |
| ★ TODAY — Thursday, September 24, 2026 — all times ET |
|
| ET | Release | Cons. | Prior | Sens. | What a beat / miss does | | 04:10 | Fed Williams, London (done) | — | — | Medium | “Reasonable” to expect another hike by year-end; no explicit forward guidance | | 08:00 | Fed Barkin | — | — | Medium | Pre-open; hawkish lean adds to the Oct 77.5% | | 08:30 | Initial jobless claims | 201K | 196K | High | Lands before the open. <190K: 2Y +3-5 bp, Oct hike toward 85%, NQ/RTY gap wider. >215K: front-end rally, RTY relief | | 08:30 | Continuing claims | 1,750K | 1,730K | Medium | | | 08:30 | Current account Q2 | −$255bn | −$226.8bn | Low | | | 08:30 | Building permits, final (Aug) | 1.394M | 1.433M | Low | | | 08:50 | Fed Hammack | — | — | Medium | Hawk; data-dependent framing expected | | 10:00 | New home sales (Aug) | 0.62M | 0.607M | Medium | Miss with 7.12% mortgage rate extends builder selling (DHI, LEN, PHM) | | 10:10 | Fed Paulson | — | — | Medium | | | 10:30 | EIA natural gas storage | +53 Bcf (TE fcst) | +44 Bcf | Medium | | | 11:00 | Kansas City Fed composite | 5 (TE fcst) | 10 | Medium | | | 13:00 | 7-year note auction | — | 4.512% stop | High | Tail >1 bp after the 5Y's 3.1 bp: 10Y/30Y through the highs; growth multiples into the close | | day | Treasury buyback, longer-dated (up to $6bn); Trump-Xi summit | — | — | High | Chip/rare-earth language moves semis, BA, ag | | 16:30 | Fed balance sheet | — | $6.747tn | Medium | |
|
| Claims at 8:30 are the only scheduled print before the open, and the morning's biggest gap risk. The consensus figures are from TradingEconomics, carried from the Closing Daily; where only the board's own forecast exists it is labelled. |
| Overnight global data and policy already released |
| Region | Event | Actual | Expected / prior | Reaction | | Switzerland | SNB policy rate | 0.00% (hold) | 0.00% | USD/CHF +0.24%; Dec hike odds ~50% (CNBC) | | Switzerland | CPI (Aug, context) | 0.8% y/y | 0-2% band | | | Japan | JGB market reopens | 10Y 3.055-3.079% | 2.984% (18 Sep) | Highest since 1996; Nikkei +0.76% | | U.S./China | Truce extended (Bessent) | to 10 Jan | Nov expiry | Shanghai −1.22%; not confirmed by Beijing |
|
|
| Date | ET | Release | Cons. | Prior | Sens. | | Fri 9/25 | 08:30 | Durable goods m/m (Aug) | −0.4% | +1.1% | High | | Fri 9/25 | 08:30 | Durables ex-transport; core capex | +0.6%; +0.5% | +0.4%; +0.2% | Medium | | Fri 9/25 | 10:00 | Michigan 1-yr inflation expectations, final | 4.6% | 4.0% | Very high | | Fri 9/25 | 10:00 | Michigan sentiment, final; 5-yr expectations | 47.6; 3.4% | 51.7; 3.3% | High | | Fri 9/25 | 05:15 / 14:00 | Fed: Williams; Hammack | — | — | Medium |
|
|
| Date | ET | Release | Prior | Sens. | | Mon 9/28 | 10:30 | Dallas Fed manufacturing | 11.6 | Medium | | Tue 9/29 | 10:00 | JOLTS; CB consumer confidence | 7.271M; 89.4 | High | | Wed 9/30 | 08:15 | ADP employment | 38K | High | | Wed 9/30 | 08:30 | Core PCE m/m; PCE y/y; GDP Q2 final | +0.2%; +3.7%; +2.1% | Very high | | Wed 9/30 | 09:45 | Chicago PMI | 47.1 | Medium | | Thu 10/1 | 10:00 | ISM manufacturing; prices paid | 54.6; 71.1 | High | | Fri 10/2 | 08:30 | Nonfarm payrolls; AHE | 162K, 4.1% UR; +0.3% | Very high |
|
| Look-ahead. The Fed card moved overnight without a data print; Williams did it. From here the path runs through four prints in seven sessions: claims today, Michigan one-year inflation expectations Friday (4.6% vs 4.0%, the week's only Very-high release), core PCE 30 September and payrolls 2 October, the last labour report before 28 October. With October at 73.5-77.5%, the asymmetry has flipped. A strong print adds less to October than a weak one takes away, but strong prints still lift the 2027 terminal that the strip trimmed overnight. The auction calendar ends today with the 7-year. Micron (30 Sep) and Nike (1 Oct) are the earnings catalysts alongside. |
|
8 · Fed Funds Futures & Rate Path |
| Current target range 3.75%-4.00% (raised 25 bp on 16 September). IORB 3.90%, ON RRP 3.75%. |
| (i) 28 October meeting — headline, two vendors |
| Outcome | CME NOW (CNBC, 24 Sep a.m.) | CME 23 Sep 5:57 PM | CME 1-week (16 Sep) | CME 1-month (21 Aug) | Investing NOW (6:55 AM) | Inv. 23 Sep 5:45 PM | Inv. prev-week | | Cut (3.50-3.75) | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | 46.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Hold (3.75-4.00) | 22.5%* | 30.3% | 50.6% | 44.3% | 26.5% | 28.8% | 42.6% | | +25 (4.00-4.25) | 77.5% | 69.7% | 48.7% | 8.8% | 73.5% | 71.2% | 57.4% | | +50 (4.25-4.50) | — | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
|
| CME FedWatch did not render pre-open (QuikStrike iframe refused a direct load: “unexpected null referrer”). The NOW figure is CNBC's report of FedWatch Thursday morning; *hold is inferred as the complement on the assumption of no cut or +50 mass, consistent with every other column. Reconciliation: CME 77.5% against Investing 73.5% is a 4.0-pt gap, the same sign and a similar size as last night (69.7 vs 71.2 reversed). Investing's card updated at 6:55 AM and the CNBC figure may be later. Investing's “previous day” column (26.5/73.5) equals its NOW column, a fixed snapshot, so the d/d uses the Closing Daily's 5:45 PM capture. All columns sum to 100.0%. |
| (ii)-(iii) Momentum and the named hooks |
| October hike odds on CME: 8.8% (21 Aug) → 48.7% (16 Sep) → 55.4% (22 Sep) → 69.7% (23 Sep close) → 77.5% (24 Sep), a 22-point rise in 36 hours. Hooks: flash PMI composite 58.4 and the 5-year 3.1 bp tail (Wednesday), Barr (“further policy adjustments are likely”), Collins (inflation “notably” above 2%), and Williams overnight. The countervailing hook is political. Trump has called for rates of “1%, or less” and called the board “hostile” (Bloomberg). |
| (iv) 2026 meeting distributions — Investing.com, 24 Sep 6:55 AM ET. Format: now [23 Sep 5:45 PM] [prev week] |
| Meeting | 3.75-4.00 (hold) | 4.00-4.25 (+25) | 4.25-4.50 (+50) | Cum. above | Cum. below | | Oct 28 | 26.5% [28.8] [42.6] | 73.5% [71.2] [57.4] | 0.0% | 73.5% | 0.0% | | Dec 9 | 6.9% [5.8] [11.6] | 38.8% [37.3] [46.6] | 54.3% [56.9] [41.7] | 93.1% | 0.0% |
|
| (v) 2027 path — modal range, with the overnight change in the contract |
| Meeting | Future | o/n chg | Modal range | Prob. [23 Sep] | Cum. above | Cum. below | | Jan 27 | 95.735 | +0.5 bp | 4.25-4.50 | 46.5% [47.1] | 96.5% | 0.0% | | Mar 17 | 95.550 | +1.0 bp | 4.50-4.75 | 39.6% [41.5] | 98.8% | 0.0% | | Apr 28 | 95.460 | +2.0 bp | 4.50-4.75 | 36.5% [36.6] | 99.2% | 0.0% | | Jun 9 | 95.310 | +3.0 bp | 4.50-4.75 (was 4.75-5.00) | 31.5% [31.8] | 99.5% | 0.0% | | Jul 28 | 95.275 | +3.0 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 30.1% [31.6] | 99.6% | 0.0% | | Sep 15 | 95.230 | +2.5 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 30.1% [31.1] | 99.6% | 0.0% | | Oct 27 | 95.215 | +3.5 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 29.9% [31.0] | 99.7% | 0.0% | | Dec 8 | 95.230 | +5.0 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 29.7% [30.0] | 99.6% | 0.0% |
|
| Contract price up = lower implied rate (green). Implied terminal at the cheapest contract: 100 − 95.215 = 4.785%, down 3.5 bp from 4.820%. Cumulative above = 100 − hold bucket (e.g., Jan 100 − 3.5 = 96.5). |
| (vi) Year-end probability ladders |
| Year-end 2026 (Dec 9) | Range | Prob. | | Cut, any size | below 3.75 | 0.0% | | Hold | 3.75-4.00 | 6.9% | | +25 bp | 4.00-4.25 | 38.8% | | +50 bp | 4.25-4.50 | 54.3% | | +75 bp | 4.50-4.75 | 0.0% |
|
| Year-end 2027 (Dec 8) | Range | Prob. | | −25 bp | 3.50-3.75 | 0.0% | | Hold | 3.75-4.00 | 0.4% | | +25 bp | 4.00-4.25 | 3.6% | | +50 bp | 4.25-4.50 | 13.7% | | +75 bp | 4.50-4.75 | 27.0% | | +100 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 29.7% | | +125 bp | 5.00-5.25 | 18.3% | | +150 bp | 5.25-5.50 | 6.2% | | +175 bp | 5.50-5.75 | 1.1% | | +200 bp | 5.75-6.00 | 0.0% |
|
| (vii) Rounding: Dec 2026 sums to 100.0%; Dec 2027 to 100.0%. Among the 2027 cards, Jun and Sep sum to 100.1% and Jul to 99.9% on the vendor's one-decimal rounding; the rest sum to 100.0%. |
| (viii) Interpretation. Base case: +25 in October (73.5-77.5%), +25 or +50 by December, and a 4.75-5.00% terminal range through late 2027. What changed overnight: the timing moved earlier and the peak moved lower. October gained 2-8 pts, December's +50 lost 2.6, and the 2027 strip rallied up to 5 bp. Roughly a third of Wednesday's 16.5 bp back-end cheapening reversed (Dec-27 +5.0 bp against −16.5). Tails: a December hold is back to 6.9%, and the 5.00%+ tail for end-2027 is 25.6%. Practical trade: the ZQZ6/ZQZ7 steepener gave back 5.5 bp (Section 12). The catalyst that can re-steepen it is Friday's Michigan one-year expectation, not today's claims, which mainly move October. Can 8:30 move it further? October yes, by about 5-8 pts either way; the terminal only on a large surprise. |
|
9 · FX |
| Pair | Level (7:08 ET) | vs prior close | O/N range | Driver | | DXY | 101.235 | +0.14% | 101.001-101.315 | Seventh gain in progress; rate differential | | EUR/USD | 1.1374 | −0.05% | 1.1363-1.1399 | Bunds +2.2 bp; France budget risk | | GBP/USD | 1.3223 | −0.11% | 1.3215-1.3256 | Gilts flat | | USD/JPY | 158.75 | +0.29% | 157.80-158.79 | Tokyo back; JGB rise did not help the yen | | USD/CHF | 0.8271 | +0.24% | 0.8230-0.8283 | SNB hold at 0% | | USD/CAD | 1.4115 | +0.11% | 1.4090-1.4119 | Crude up, CAD still weaker | | AUD/USD | 0.7028 | −0.11% | 0.7018-0.7045 | AU 10Y +12 bp; after −1.08% Wed | | USD/CNY | 6.7126 | +0.02% | 6.7111-6.7189 | Summit day; managed | | USD/KRW | 1,369.83 | +0.30% | 1,364.96-1,375.20 | Onshore shut; offshore quote | | USD/MXN | 17.592 | +0.45% | 17.493-17.607 | Weakest on the board |
|
| Quote basis: CNBC quote service, prior close = CNBC's prior-session close (not 4:00 PM ET fix). For non-USD-base pairs (EUR, GBP, AUD) a fall is a weaker foreign currency; red = dollar stronger in every row. |
| Take. The contrarian cross is USD/JPY. A 10-year JGB up 8-11 bp in one session should narrow the U.S.-Japan differential and support the yen, yet the yen weakened to 158.75. The market is treating the JGB move as a fiscal and term-premium event, not a BoJ signal. The WSJ opinion page calls it a “staring contest” over the dollar and the yen; above 158.8 the intervention risk is the main two-way risk in FX. The franc is trading carry, not safety: USD/CHF +0.24% on a risk-off morning after the SNB held. Equity translation: DXY at 101.2 (+2.8% YTD per the Closing Daily) weighs on the S&P's foreign-revenue cohort (semis, staples exporters, MCD) and helps Japanese exporters. MXN at the bottom of the board is the cleanest EM de-risking signal. |
|
10 · Commodities |
| Contract | Price | Chg | %Chg | YTD* | Driver | | WTI (Nov, NYMEX) | $93.05 | +$0.89 | +0.97% | +61.3% | Range $91.23-$94.69 | | Brent (Nov, ICE) | $104.50 | +$1.42 | +1.38% | +69.8% | Safavi Indian Ocean remark; high $106.50 | | Heating oil (Oct) | $4.7508 | −$0.0256 | −0.54% | +126.7% | Diesel-export curb; range $4.742-$4.898 | | RBOB (Oct) | $3.5892 | +$0.0022 | +0.06% | +110.4% | Expiring 30 Sep | | Natural gas (Oct) | $3.048 | +$0.025 | +0.83% | −17.5% | EIA storage 10:30 (+53 Bcf fcst) | | Gold (Comex Dec) | $4,293.20 | −$25.20 | −0.58% | −0.7% | Real yields; third decline | | Silver (Comex Dec) | $64.040 | −$0.924 | −1.42% | −9.6% | Gold/silver ratio 67.04 | | Copper (Comex Dec) | $6.749 | −$0.0045 | −0.07% | +18.1% | China holiday approaching | | Wheat (CBOT Dec) | $7.080 | — | +0.07% | — | Bloomberg board, 6:50 AM | | Corn (CBOT Dec) | $5.290 | — | 0.00% | — | Summit ag purchases the swing factor |
|
| Basis: front-month futures, CNBC quote service 6:49-6:58 AM ET; change vs CNBC's prior settle (WTI $92.16, Brent $103.08, HO $4.7764, gold $4,318.40). These differ from the Closing Daily's 18:20 ET board rows (WTI $92.71, Brent $103.49, HO $4.8350, gold $4,322.70), which carried post-settle electronic trading; see Section 16. *YTD = TradingEconomics spot returns as of the 23 Sep close (Closing Daily), not futures returns. |
| Take. Crude and distillate keep moving on different rules. Distillate crack (Oct HO × 42 − Nov WTI): $4.7508 × 42 − $93.05 = $106.48, against $108.45 at the prior settles, −$1.97. Gasoline crack: $3.5892 × 42 − $93.05 = $57.70, −$0.80. Flat price is carrying geopolitical risk; products are carrying the U.S. policy response. Brent-WTI widened to $11.45 from $10.92, since a Hormuz or Indian Ocean headline prices into the seaborne marker first. Positioning cuts both ways. Saudi exports at their highest since the war began are the supply answer, and Brent's rejection at $106.50 shows sellers at the highs. Gold's third decline alongside a 30-year at 2004 highs says real yields dominate the haven bid. Equity read: upstream (COP, EOG, DVN, OXY) over refiners; airlines (UAL, DAL −0.6% pre) and chemicals pay for Brent; miners (NEM, FCX) pay for real yields. Caveat: October HO and RBOB roll into expiry on 30 September; the November contracts are the cleaner signal next week. |
|
11 · Credit & Funding |
| Spreads (ICE BofA OAS via FRED, latest row 22 Sep; FRED lags one business day) |
| Series | Level | 1-Day | 1-Week | YTD | Range note | | IG OAS (BAMLC0A0CM) | 77 bp | 0 bp | −3 bp | −2 bp | 2026 tight | | HY OAS (BAMLH0A0HYM2) | 268 bp | +2 bp | −8 bp | −15 bp | 1-month range 260-276 | | CCC & lower (BAMLH0A3HYC) | 1,075 bp | −2 bp | −10 bp | +187 bp | CCC-HY 807 bp | | CDX IG / HY 5y | No reliable data available at this time | — | — | — | Section 16 |
|
| Spread widening = red. The 23 Sep row (the rate-shock session) is not yet on FRED. Cash proxies pre-market: LQD $103.79, −0.10% (Wednesday −1.14% to a 52-week low), HYG $78.02, −0.10% (Wednesday −0.72%). 1-month range from FRED rows 24 Aug-22 Sep. |
| Funding (NY Fed, latest published row 22 Sep; 23 Sep publishes ~8:00 AM) |
| Rate | Level | Prior | Note | | SOFR | 3.87% | 3.85% | 99th pct 3.95%; volume $2,940bn | | EFFR | 3.88% | 3.88% | | | SOFR − IORB | −3 bp | −5 bp | IORB 3.90%; quarter-end 30 Sep | | ON RRP take-up | $461m (23 Sep) | $453m | Negligible buffer |
|
| Take. Credit is absorbing the rate shock as duration, not as spread. That holds while all-in yield brings in buyers, and today tests it twice. Supply: the Paramount-Warner financing ($49bn) is in marketing, with Citigroup running loan investor calls (Bloomberg, Wednesday), and Peloton is in talks on a potential $800m debut bond. A 7-year tail at 1:00 would hit rate-lock hedging for both. Idiosyncratic: Brightline, the Florida railroad, plans an imminent Chapter 11 in New Jersey (WSJ). The equity read is minimal, but it tests muni and project-finance HY, where CCC spreads are already 187 bp wider YTD. Bloomberg also reports Pimco is said to be eyeing a first allocation from Saudi PIF. Funding: SOFR 3 bp under IORB with RRP near zero, six days before quarter-end, is still the plumbing to watch. A SOFR print at or above 3.90% would be the first quarter-end squeeze of this cycle. |
|
12 · Trading Views (desk-style, not personalized advice) |
| Ideas for institutional investors. Each carries an explicit expression, catalyst and invalidation; verify independently and size to your own mandate. Pre-open marks are indicative (thin pre-market; Investing.com futures prices). |
| Book marks at the pre-open |
| Position | Last mark | Pre-open | Action | | Long ZQZ6 / short ZQZ7 (entry 46.0 bp) | 62.5 bp (+16.5) | 57.0 bp (+11.0); −5.5 o/n | Hold a quarter; take-a-third >65 not hit | | Long refiners (VLO, MPC) / short Nov WTI | −2.76 pts | Distillate crack $106.48 < $108 | Invalidation firing: exit at the open | | Long power tier / short CRWD, PANW (eighth) | −4.40 pts | PWR +0.84%; CRWD −1.32%, PANW −0.65% | Hold the eighth; 8-pt stop | | Long energy (COP, EOG, DVN) / short utilities (NEE, EIX, EXC) | new | COP +0.77%, NEE +0.23% | Hold; stop 10Y < 4.95% | | Long 20Y / short 30Y (entry −4 bp) | −5 bp | 20Y +2.8, 30Y +2.9 bp o/n: flat | Hold to Friday; stop −8 bp | | Long RSP / short SPY | −0.89 pts | RSP −0.32% vs SPY −0.53% (+0.21) | Hold | | Long PSKY / short WBD | +0.63 pts | PSKY −0.60% vs WBD +0.03% | Hold; financing is the catalyst |
|
| ZQ arithmetic: 95.800 − 95.230 = 57.0 bp; 57.0 − 46.0 = +11.0 bp from entry, or +$458 per pair at $41.67/bp. Crack: $4.7508 × 42 − $93.05 = $106.48 on CNBC's live basis; the refiner trade's $108 clause is on that basis. |
| 1. Short NQ / long YM, dollar-neutral, for the first hour. Expression: short 1 NQZ6 against long YMZ6 in matching notional; beta gap about 1.3. Catalyst: 8:30 claims, then the 30-year's reaction at 9:30; the 1:00 PM 7-year auction. Thesis: the overnight ranking (YM −0.29% vs NQ −0.91%) is a duration sort, and it widens if the 30-year breaks 5.446%. Invalidation: 10-year back below 5.10% or NQ reclaiming 30,700. Sizing: small; gross 0.5x the book's usual pair. | | 2. Darden: gap-and-go below $202.75, gap-fill above $207. Expression: DRI shares or 1-week puts. Catalyst: opening auction; conference-call commentary on Olive Garden traffic. Setup: an in-line quarter with a reaffirmed guide is −5%, so the market is repricing casual-dining multiples at a 5.1% 10-year. Below $202.75 (support), the gap is likely to extend; a reclaim of $207 in the first 30 minutes signals a fill toward $210. Invalidation: the level that is broken first. Sizing: single-name risk, half unit. | | 3. Costco into tonight: sell the straddle's premium over history. Expression: short COST weekly strangle outside ±4%, delta-hedged. Catalyst: AMC print; consensus EPS $6.48-$6.55, revenue $94.85bn (TipRanks). Thesis: implied ±3.53% (about ±$32) against an eight-quarter average move of 1.42% (TipRanks). A defensive, membership-fee business in a rate shock should not need a larger-than-usual move. Invalidation: a membership-fee or special-dividend surprise. Sizing: defined risk only. | | 4. Long upstream / short airlines on Brent above $104. Expression: long COP, OXY; short UAL, DAL, dollar-neutral. Catalyst: Indian Ocean headlines; summit Iran language. Invalidation: Brent below $101.83 (overnight low). Sizing: quarter. |
|
| Vol note. VIX indicates 16.13 pre-open (+6.3%), which prices roughly 16.13 / √252 = 1.02% a day for the S&P, against realised moves of 1.49%, 0.00% and 0.75% over the last three sessions. An S&P straddle for today was not retrievable pre-open. Levels: prior close 7,706.03; implied open about 7,665; ES overnight range 7,707.25-7,779.25 (cash-equivalent roughly 7,641-7,713). The round number the tape is working around is 7,700. A cash open below 7,694.89 (Wednesday's low) takes out the last reference low. Opening-auction note: the ES gap is 0.53%, so imbalance direction at 9:28 matters more than usual, and the NYSE imbalance feed was not retrieved. Not personalized investment advice. |
|
13 · S&P 500 Earnings Calendar — TODAY highlighted |
| ★ TODAY — Thursday, September 24 |
|
| BMO: Darden Restaurants (DRI) — reported: EPS $2.05 vs $2.05, sales $3.2bn vs $3.21bn; −5.00% pre-market. |
| AMC: Costco Wholesale (COST) — consensus EPS $6.48 (Nasdaq) / $6.55 (TipRanks), revenue $94.85bn (+10% y/y, TipRanks); option-implied move ±3.53% (~$32) vs 1.42% average; +0.28% pre-market. |
| Current week (Sep 21 - Sep 25) — remaining |
|
| Fri 9/25. No S&P 500 reporter on either bucket. |
| Next week (Sep 28 - Oct 2) |
|
| Mon 9/28. No S&P 500 reporter. |
| Tue 9/29. BMO: Carnival (CCL), CarMax (KMX). |
| Wed 9/30. BMO: Jabil (JBL), FactSet (FDS), Conagra Brands (CAG). AMC: Micron Technology (MU). |
| Thu 10/1. BMO: Accenture (ACN), McCormick (MKC). AMC: Nike (NKE). |
| Fri 10/2. No S&P 500 reporter. |
| Diff vs the prior calendar (Closing Daily, 23 Sep): no additions, removals or re-datings among S&P 500 names. Darden moves from pending to reported. Nasdaq's 24 Sep API shows DRI BMO and COST AMC, consistent for an eighth capture. Non-members reporting today: TD SYNNEX, BlackBerry, Uxin (BMO); Scholastic, Legacy Education (AMC); VinFast, Hub Group, Endava (time not supplied). TD SYNNEX and Hub Group stay conservatively excluded (absent from the component capture). Clock times are not asserted beyond the vendor's BMO/AMC buckets. |
14 · Risk Map — Today's Session |
| ★ TODAY — Event clock, Thursday 24 September (ET) |
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| 08:00 Fed Barkin · 08:30 initial claims (201K cons.), continuing claims, Q2 current account, final permits |
| 08:50 Fed Hammack · ~08:00 NY Fed SOFR for 23 Sep |
| 09:30 cash open (ES implied ~7,665) · 10:00 new home sales (0.62M cons.) · 10:10 Fed Paulson |
| 10:30 EIA natural gas · 11:00 KC Fed composite · 11:30 4- and 8-week bills |
| 13:00 7-year note auction (prior 4.512%) · Treasury longer-dated buyback (up to $6bn); Trump-Xi summit through the day |
| 16:00 close · AMC: Costco (±3.53% implied) · 16:30 Fed balance sheet |
Crowded consensuses to stress-test | “The Fed goes sooner but not higher.” Overnight the market added October (77.5%) and took 2027 down (terminal 4.785%). It breaks if claims print below 190K and Friday's Michigan one-year prints at or above 4.6%, which would lift both. Watch Dec-27 fed funds back to 95.18. | | “The bond selloff is a supply story that a clean auction fixes.” Tokyo, Frankfurt and Sydney sold duration overnight without a U.S. auction. A 7-year that stops through 5.05% with the 30-year still rising would say term premium, not supply. | | “The summit is a relief event.” China's own markets sold on a two-month, unconfirmed truce. It breaks on Beijing confirmation plus chip or rare-earth language; semis and BABA would squeeze. | | “Credit is fine.” IG at 77 bp is the 2026 tight while LQD sits at a 52-week low. It breaks if HYG falls more than 1% on a day the 10-year moves less than 5 bp. |
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| Two-sided geopolitical tape (next 6.5 hours). Upside: a Trump-Xi joint statement on chips or rare earths; any Iran de-escalation language (Tuesday's three-hour meeting with Iran's delegation was called “very good”); Saudi export surge weighing on Brent. Downside: Safavi's Indian Ocean escalation; CNBC reports Chinese authorities hold F-35 components in Hong Kong; WSJ on Chinese components in Iranian weapons, which could derail summit optics; France's budget fight (OAT-Bund 111.7 bp). Structural watch items: the global long end (JGB 1996 high, Bund 2009 high, UST 30Y 2004 high); the Muse disruption cohort; quarter-end funding (30 Sep); diesel-export policy. What VIX 16.1 is pricing: about a 1.0% day, broadly adequate for a 0.5% gap plus a claims print. What it is not pricing: a second failed coupon auction in two days with the 30-year already at a 22-year high. Rates volatility (MOVE, highest since March) is doing the work that equity volatility is not. |
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| Source Links (Section 15) and Data Notes & Conflicts (Section 16) are in the companion file US_CrossAsset_Opening_2026-09-24_DataNotes.txt. |
| U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Opening Daily — Thursday, September 24, 2026. Data as of ~7:10 AM ET. Prepared for institutional investors; not personalized investment advice. Sources: CNBC, Bloomberg, WSJ, Investing.com, Nasdaq, Benzinga, TradingEconomics, FRED, NY Fed, U.S. Treasury. |
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