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U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Opening Daily
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 — Pre-Open Briefing | Data as of: ~7:22 AM ET | News window: Mon 4:00 PM ET → Tue ~7:25 AM ET
Prepared for Institutional Investors. Not Personalized Investment Advice; Verify Independently before Acting. | Source Links and Data Notes & Conflicts provided in the companion text file (US_CrossAsset_Opening_2026-09-29_DataNotes.txt). |
1 · Pre-Open Dashboard |
| The overnight in one paragraph. Monday's bond rout paused and nothing replaced it: the overnight is a stand-down into JOLTS at 10:00 and six Fed speakers, with the day's single big print coming from a regulator, not a data release. Bloomberg's wrap has U.S. stocks and Treasuries “struggling for direction,” and BNY's Geoff Yu calls for “positions to be squared” ahead of Friday's payrolls and month-end. The relief is imported: Bunds −4.8 bp to 3.596% and gilts −6.0 bp to 5.366% even though Spanish CPI hit 4.9% vs 4.6%, dragging the 10-year to 5.213% (−2.9 bp on CNBC's close, −2.7 bp vs the 5.24% par) while the 2-year moved only 1.6 bp and CME's October hike odds barely moved (70.3% vs 70.9%). Oil gave back the weekend premium as Gulf exports rebounded: WTI −0.96% to $91.71, Brent Nov −0.83% to $104.41. Futures rank NQ +0.21% > RTY +0.15% > ES +0.07% > YM +0.06% — duration and chips rebounding after SOX −1.61% (MU +1.5%, AMD +1.2%, ASML ADR +1.9% pre-market). The one violent tape: Fair Isaac −18.2% to $688.00 after the FHFA said Fannie and Freddie will price mortgages off a unified grid that includes VantageScore. What this hands the 9:30 open: a flat-to-slightly-higher start (implied S&P ~7,689 vs 7,683.69), chips and megacap tech bid, energy offered, FICO the gap to respect, and the first real test at 10:00 — no 8:30 print today. |
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| Equity futures — December 2026 front contracts (CNBC quote service, 7:12 AM ET) |
| Contract | Level | Chg | %Chg | Implied cash open / note | | S&P 500 (ESZ6) | 7,752.25 | +5.50 | +0.07% | Implied SPX 7,689.19 vs 7,683.69 close | | Nasdaq-100 (NQZ6) | 30,631.50 | +65.25 | +0.21% | Implied NDX 30,342.06 vs 30,276.81 | | Dow (YMZ6) | 51,867 | +30 | +0.06% | Implied DJIA 51,511.51 vs 51,481.51 | | Russell 2000 (RTYZ6) | 2,844.50 | +4.40 | +0.15% | Implied RUT 2,822.31 vs 2,817.91 |
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| Reconciliation: ES +5.50 / 7,746.75 prior settle = +0.071%; NQ +65.25 / 30,566.25 = +0.213%; YM +30 / 51,837 = +0.058%; RTY +4.40 / 2,840.10 = +0.155%. Implied cash open = prior cash close + futures points change, holding Monday's settle-to-cash basis constant (ES 7,746.75 − 7,683.69 = 63.06 points); no separate fair-value feed retrieved. Bloomberg's 7:04 AM ES print was 7,756.50 (+9.75), overnight range 7,716.00-7,758.50. |
| Prior cash closes — Monday, September 28 (reference anchors) |
| Index | Close | Chg | %Chg | Note | | S&P 500 | 7,683.69 | −59.72 | −0.77% | Erased September's gain; breadth 161-326 | | Nasdaq Composite | 26,820.38 | −248.34 | −0.92% | NDX 30,276.81, −1.08% | | Dow Jones | 51,481.51 | −347.11 | −0.67% | Boeing −6.91% on MAX 10 delay | | Russell 2000 | 2,817.91 | −19.64 | −0.69% | | | PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) | 12,465.24 | −203.69 | −1.61% | QCOM −7.17%, INTC −5.67% | | VIX (close) | 16.07 | +1.20 | +8.07% | Range 15.68-16.62 |
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| Volatility, rates, FX, commodities, crypto (CNBC 7:12-7:24 AM ET unless stated) |
| Instrument | Level | Chg | %Chg | Note | | VIX (pre-open indication) | 15.86 | −0.21 | −1.31% | Down = green for risk | | VIX futures (Oct, VX1) | 17.54 | −0.17 | −0.95% | Contango +1.68 over spot | | UST 2Y (live) | 4.908% | −1.6 bp | | −1.2 bp vs 4.92% par close | | UST 10Y (live) | 5.213% | −2.9 bp | | −2.7 bp vs 5.24% par close | | UST 30Y (live) | 5.539% | −2.3 bp | | −2.1 bp vs 5.56% par close | | DXY | 101.330 | +0.133 | +0.13% | Range 101.177-101.487 | | EUR/USD | 1.1348 | −0.0022 | −0.19% | Spanish CPI did not help the euro | | USD/JPY | 157.21 | −0.14 | −0.09% | Katayama weak-yen warning | | WTI (Nov) | $91.71 | −0.89 | −0.96% | Range $91.66-94.74 | | Brent (Nov, expires Wed) | $104.41 | −0.87 | −0.83% | Dec $96.77, −1.08% | | Gold (Comex Dec) | $4,187.00 | +18.60 | +0.45% | Bounce after Monday's −3.5% | | Copper (Comex Dec) | $6.625 | −0.0085 | −0.13% | | | Bitcoin (24h) | $84,031 | +614 | +0.74% | Range $82,750-84,316 |
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| Global equities overnight |
| Index | Level | Chg | %Chg | Status (ET) | | Nikkei 225 | 65,481.27 | −396.35 | −0.60% | Close; Topix −1.72% (ex-dividend) | | Kospi | 6,870.81 | −18.93 | −0.27% | Close | | Hang Seng | 24,523.57 | −118.94 | −0.48% | Close; Shein at record low | | Shanghai Composite | 3,830.45 | +6.83 | +0.18% | Close | | Stoxx 600 | 642.81 | +4.13 | +0.65% | Live 7:07 | | DAX | 25,551.40 | +176.98 | +0.70% | Live 7:07 | | FTSE 100 | 10,729.94 | +45.06 | +0.42% | Live 7:07 |
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| Sources: CNBC quote service (quote.cnbc.com, read same-origin in local Chrome), Bloomberg /markets/stocks/futures and /markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us (US Edition), official Treasury par curve via the Closing Daily of 28 Sep, CME FedWatch (QuikStrike) and Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor. Yields are colour-inverted (down = green). |
2 · Headline News — Bloomberg Markets & WSJ |
| 1. “Stocks Drift as Focus Turns to Labor Data and AI” (Bloomberg Markets Wrap, updated 6:22 AM ET) — the tape is waiting for JOLTS and six Fed speakers with markets pricing up to four hikes in 12 months; ES is +0.07% at 7,752.25 at 7:12 AM ET. See Section 1. | | 2. “Middle East Oil Exports Rebound as Iran’s Chokehold on Hormuz Breaks Down” (WSJ, 9:00 PM ET Mon) — the supply premium behind Monday's bear flattener is leaking out: Brent Nov −0.83% to $104.41 and WTI −0.96% at 7:12 AM ET. See Section 10. | | 3. “CarMax Shares Climb as Turnaround Push Shows Green Shoots” (Bloomberg) — EPS of $1.16 against a $0.73 consensus puts KMX +5.50% at $59.66 on 386K shares at 7:21 AM ET, the cleanest consumer beat of the morning. See Section 5. | | 4. “Goldman’s Board Has Discussed a Plan to Name John Waldron as Its Next CEO” (WSJ, 6:43 PM ET Mon; Bloomberg video) — succession clarity, not a strategy change; GS +0.40% to $919.94 on a thin 2.4K shares. See Section 4. | | 5. “Spanish Inflation Unexpectedly Hits 5%, Backing Higher ECB Rates” (Bloomberg) — HICP 5.0% vs 4.9% and CPI 4.9% vs 4.6%, yet the 10Y Bund fell 4.8 bp to 3.596% at 7:22 AM ET: Europe is trading energy, not the print. See Section 3. | | 6. “Oura Postpones IPO Over Market Uncertainty” (WSJ, 6:30 AM ET; Bloomberg: “Smart Ring Maker Oura Becomes Latest Company to Delay Its US IPO”) — a 50M-share deal at $40-44 pulled on day-of: the issuance window is shutting at a 5.21% 10-year. See Section 4. | | 7. “How Nvidia’s Buyback Created Phantom Value” (WSJ Markets A.M.) — WSJ argues the record $150bn authorization is small against a ~$5.5tn market value; NVDA is +0.69% to $230.44 on 1.33M shares pre-market. See Section 4. | | 8. “A Simple Way to Take Advantage of Higher Yields” (WSJ Heard on the Street, 5:30 AM ET) — the case for 2-year notes lands with the 2-year at 4.908%, down 1.6 bp overnight and near its cycle high. See Section 6. | | 9. “AAR to Pay $1.8 Billion for Stake in Aircraft-Maintenance Company” (WSJ, 4:01 PM ET Mon) — a 65% stake in Bain-backed MRO Holdings at a $4.0bn enterprise value plus a Q1 beat; AIR +5.14% to $121.00 (non-S&P, thin). See Section 5. | | 10. “Vail Resorts Loss Widens After a Year of Tough Weather” (WSJ, 4:45 PM ET Mon) — season-pass units −12%; MTN −2.24% to $135.00 pre-market on 2.2K shares, a discretionary read-across before Carnival's print. See Section 5. |
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| Both outlets read in local Chrome this run (Bloomberg US Edition /markets and the Markets Wrap; WSJ /finance, Markets A.M., /economy, /business, /tech, /world, /us-news). Stories the Closing Daily's Section 3 already carried (Xi visit, Iran-China shipments, OpenAI's Astra pull, Citi-Coinbase, Tether, Iowa steel) are excluded unless materially moved. |
3 · Global Markets Overnight — Asia & Europe |
| Asia closes (Tuesday) |
| Index | Close | %Chg | Catalyst | | Nikkei 225 | 65,481.27 | −0.60% | Banks −3.5 to −4% (MUFG, SMFG) on global yields; chip-equipment bid (Disco +4.2%) | | Topix | ~4,041 | −1.72% | More than half of constituents ex-dividend — mechanical drag (TE) | | Kospi | 6,870.81 | −0.27% | LG Energy Solution −3.3%; BoK business confidence fell | | Taiwan TAIEX | 47,631.96 | −0.82% | MediaTek −7.1%; waiting on the Trump-Xi summit | | Hang Seng | 24,523.57 | −0.48% | Shein −11 to −14% to a record low on a 67% profit drop | | HSCEI | No reliable data available at this time | | CNBC and MarketScreener stale; Bloomberg H-share futures 8,162 (+22) | | Shanghai Composite | 3,830.45 | +0.18% | Flat into National Day; PMIs due 9:30 PM ET tonight | | ASX 200 | 8,709.30 | +0.34% | RBA hiked 25 bp to 4.60%, unanimous; highest since Nov 2011 | | Nifty 50 | 22,692.80 | −0.38% | Brent above $104, rupee past 96/USD, foreign outflows |
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| Europe (live, ~7:07 AM ET) |
| Index | Level | %Chg | Leadership / movers | | Stoxx 600 | 642.81 | +0.65% | Tech (AI), industrials, miners lead; food & bev, energy lag | | Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,359.94 | +0.93% | Semis; ASML ADR +1.9% pre-market | | DAX | 25,551.40 | +0.70% | Hapag-Lloyd +3.6% on raised EBITDA guide | | CAC 40 | 8,101.30 | +0.28% | Eiffage −3.4%, Vinci −2.8% on transport-tax hike to 12.2% | | FTSE 100 | 10,729.94 | +0.42% | AZN +2% (Summit), miners +1.4-2%; BP −2.1%; Lindt −6% (Swiss) on a profit warning | | FTSE MIB | 52,214.31 | +0.88% | Banks firmer as BTPs rally | | IBEX 35 | 19,735.10 | +0.69% | Shrugged off 4.9% CPI |
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| Global 10-year yields (CNBC, ~7:22 AM ET) |
| Bond | Yield | Chg (bp) | Driver | | Germany (Bund) | 3.596% | −4.8 | Energy relief outweighs Spanish CPI | | U.K. (Gilt) | 5.366% | −6.0 | Outperformer; 2036 auction 3.34x cover; Burnham speech today | | Japan (JGB) | 3.088% | +0.3 | Off 30-year highs after a firm 40-year sale | | Italy (BTP) | 4.562% | −4.1 | BTP-Bund 96.6 bp (+0.7) | | France (OAT) | 4.742% | −2.9 | OAT-Bund 114.6 bp (+2.0) on tax headlines |
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| Overnight data: RBA 4.60% (+25 bp, 4th hike of 2026; “upside risks... are materialising”); AUD spiked to 0.7029 and reversed to 0.7001. Spain flash CPI 4.9% y/y (cons 4.6%, prior 4.3%), HICP 5.0% (cons 4.9%). Euro-area economic sentiment 97.9 (cons 99.0), selling-price expectations 20.3 from 16.9. U.K. mortgage approvals 54,900, lowest since Dec 2023. |
| What this hands the U.S. open. Europe is up 0.3-0.9% on AI/semis and miners, which argues for a firmer SOX and FCX/NEM at 9:30; the Bund-and-gilt rally is lending the long end 2-3 bp, a tailwind for housing, utilities and long-duration tech; European energy (BP −2.1%) and French concessions are the laggards, so expect XLE to open soft. Asia's banks-down/chip-equipment-up split and Shein's collapse are the read for U.S. banks (yield-sensitive) and low-end retail/apparel (tariff and freight costs). The overnight hawkishness (RBA, Spanish CPI) did not reach the U.S. 2-year, which is the tell that today's move is imported duration, not a Fed repricing. |
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4 · Overnight Hot Spots & Pre-Market Movers |
| (a) Ranked hot spots — Mon 4:00 PM ET to Tue ~7:25 AM ET, by tradability at the open |
| 1. Washington broke FICO's mortgage moat, and the selling accelerated overnight. FHFA Director Bill Pulte said Monday evening that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will merge their loan-level pricing grids into one that puts VantageScore alongside FICO Classic, calling the old system one that “makes zero sense” (Investing.com, 4:57 PM ET). FICO fell 8% after hours and is −18.18% at $688.00 on 40.7K shares at 7:22 AM ET (CNBC) from an $840.89 close; FNMA −5.78% and FMCC −3.85% Monday. The credit bureaus that co-own VantageScore are lower on token volume — EFX −3.20% (3.2K) and TRU −2.96% (2.1K) — which reads as pull-fee price competition rather than share gain. No launch date was given. Hook: a regulatory gap rarely fills on day one; $740 (a third of the gap back) is the reclaim level, and a fresh low below the pre-market $688 says holders are still exiting. [Equities / Credit] | | 2. Imported duration: Europe's rally lent the long end 3 bp without touching the Fed path. The 10-year is 5.213%, −2.9 bp at 7:22 AM ET against Bunds −4.8 bp and gilts −6.0 bp; the 2-year moved only −1.6 bp, so live 2s10s is 30.5 bp, 1.5 bp flatter than the 32 bp par close — a mild bull flattener. CME's October hike odds are 70.3% vs 70.9% a day ago, and Investing.com's read is unchanged at 74.6%. Hook: JOLTS at 10:00 (cons 7.23M) decides whether this holds; a 10-year back above 5.24% erases the relief. Beneficiaries at the open: homebuilders, REITs and utilities (Finviz's worst group on the week, −3.39%). [Rates / Equities] | | 3. The oil premium is leaking as Gulf exports rebound. WSJ reports Iran's grip on Hormuz is breaking down; Reuters has Middle East exports at ~12.8 mb/d in September, the highest since the war began, with the Saudi East-West line restored. WTI −0.96% to $91.71 (low $91.66, high $94.74) and Brent Nov −0.83% to $104.41 at 7:12 AM ET; the Nov-Dec spread widened to $7.64 from $7.45 into Wednesday's expiry, so the prompt is still tight. U.S. energy is offered pre-market: XOM −0.94%, CVX −0.86%, OXY −0.87%; Shell −1.00% after taking FID on doubling LNG Canada. Hook: Brent Nov above the $107.87 overnight high re-opens the war trade; below $104 airlines (UAL +0.98%, DAL +0.54%) extend. [Commodities / Equities] | | 4. Chips bounce into Micron and a White House AI meeting. After SOX −1.61%, the complex is bid: MU +1.53% to $1,070.07 (453K shares) a day before its print (implied ±8.06%, Benzinga), AMD +1.20%, ARM +1.59%, AMAT +1.69%, LRCX +1.12%, SNDK +1.23%, ASML ADR +1.91%, NVDA +0.69% on 1.33M. Europe's semis led the Stoxx. Catalysts today: Trump hosts AI chiefs (Amodei, Brockman, Pichai, Zuckerberg, Huang, per CBS) on safety; OpenAI's DevDay; Reuters' read of Anthropic's prospectus targets a ~$2tn valuation. Hook: NQ is leading (+0.21%); if SOX cannot hold a +1% open by 10:30, Monday's rate-driven de-rating is still in charge. [Equities] | | 5. Biotech binaries dominate the pre-market tape. uniQure −62.5% to $14.65 on 1.69M shares after 48-month AMT-130 data showed high-dose cUHDRS slowing of 44% (p=0.144) vs 80% at 36 months (GlobeNewswire, 7:12 AM ET). Summit +18.2% to $18.30 (1.10M) on AstraZeneca's $2bn equity investment at an effective $18.36 per share; AZN ADR +1.13%. Section 232 pharma tariffs take effect today (15% EU/Swiss/Japan/Korea, 100% on most other patented imports, per CNN): GSK +1.71%, NVO −0.77%, LLY flat. Hook: SMMT trading through the $18.36 AZ price is the market pricing more than the deal; XBI breadth at 9:45 says whether QURE is idiosyncratic. [Equities] | | 6. CarMax's beat is the morning's consumer-credit datapoint. EPS $1.16 vs $0.73, revenue $7.88bn vs $7.03bn (+19.5%), comparable used units +13.0%, CarMax Auto Finance income +32.1%, buybacks resuming (Business Wire 5:50 AM ET; Investing.com consensus). KMX +5.50% to $59.66 on 386K shares. Read-across: CVNA +1.36%, and the auto lenders (ALLY, COF) for credit quality. Hook: the Nov 3 strategic update is the next leg; the gap holds if used-car peers confirm by 10:00. [Equities / Credit] | | 7. Leisure is split into Carnival. Carnival reports this morning (call 10:00 AM ET; consensus $1.36 EPS / $8.30bn, Benzinga; implied ±6.98%) and is +0.99% to $22.36; RCL +0.79%, NCLH +0.52%. Against it: Vail's pass units −12% (MTN −2.24%), Shein's first results and Lindt's warning abroad. The swing factor is fuel: Carnival does not hedge and cut full-year guidance by more than $500M on fuel last quarter (Investing.com). Hook: the 2027 outlook and fuel assumptions on the 10:00 call, not the quarter, set the cruise group's direction. [Equities] | | 8. Brokers: advisory boom, FICC bust. Jefferies (non-S&P) beat, $1.08 vs $1.00, with record advisory ($818M, +25%) and equities trading ($626M, +29%) but FICC −26%; JEF −1.12% pre-market after −3% late Monday. It is a positive read for GS (+0.40%, succession headline) and MS (+0.44%) into mid-October prints, and a caution for FICC-heavy desks. Julius Baer +7.2% in Zurich (FINMA closed its case). [Equities] | | 9. Quarter-end funding is the quiet risk. SOFR sat at IORB (3.90%) on 25 Sep, 99th percentile 3.99% vs the 4.00% SRF; the 28 Sep fix lands at 8:00 AM ET, and Paramount's ~$44bn bond sale prices Wednesday (Section 11). [Credit / Funding] |
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| (b) Up, with catalysts — CNBC extended-hours quotes, 7:14-7:22 AM ET (bold = S&P 500; † = non-member) |
| Ticker | Pre-mkt | % | Volume | Catalyst | | SMMT † | $18.30 | +18.24% | 1,098K | AZ $2bn stake — see item 5 | | NVTS † | $12.97 | +10.56% | 1,587K | U.S. Army ALATTIS SiC program; faded from +16% AH | | KMX ‡ | $59.66 | +5.50% | 386K | Q2 beat — see item 6 | | AIR † | $121.00 | +5.14% | 3.8K | Q1 beat + MRO Holdings stake | | BE | $269.40 | +2.48% | 248K | Rebound after −8.95% Monday | | AMAT | $494.99 | +1.69% | 71K | Semi-equipment bid with Europe | | NEM | $118.00 | +1.68% | 26K | Gold +0.45% after −3.5% Monday | | COIN | $195.00 | +1.67% | 129K | Bitcoin +0.74%; Morgan Stanley crypto lab | | ARM † | $287.83 | +1.59% | 129K | Bounce after −8.70% (SoftBank margin loan) | | MU | $1,070.07 | +1.53% | 453K | Into Wednesday AMC print | | SNDK | $1,734.00 | +1.23% | 155K | Memory sympathy | | AMD | $615.14 | +1.20% | 281K | World Labs deal digested | | NFLX | $70.03 | +1.16% | 385K | Deutsche Bank upgrade to Buy | | AZN † | $168.02 | +1.13% | 27K | Summit stake; tariff clarity |
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| (c) Down, with catalysts |
| Ticker | Pre-mkt | % | Volume | Catalyst | | QURE † | $14.65 | −62.54% | 1,688K | AMT-130 48-month data — see item 5 | | FICO | $688.00 | −18.18% | 41K | FHFA unified grid — see item 1 | | EFX | $141.11 | −3.20% | 3.2K | FICO read-across (thin) | | TRU | $64.23 | −2.96% | 2.1K | FICO read-across (thin) | | MTN ‡ | $135.00 | −2.24% | 2.2K | Pass units −12%; Stifel PT $157 | | BP † | $43.63 | −1.80% | 110K | Oil −0.9% | | JEF † | $46.60 | −1.12% | 2.6K | FICC −26% — see item 8 | | SHEL † | $95.51 | −1.00% | 66K | LNG Canada FID; oil | | XOM | $160.99 | −0.94% | 15K | Oil — see item 3 | | OXY | $55.61 | −0.87% | 36K | Oil | | CVX | $204.60 | −0.86% | 19K | Oil | | NVO † | $38.41 | −0.77% | 198K | Pharma tariffs effective today | | AAPL | $336.96 | −0.43% | 168K | No company catalyst; megacap laggard |
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| ‡ S&P 500 membership disputed this run (see Section 16): KMX and MTN appear on the Closing Daily's component capture; S&P DJI releases cited by this run's research show CarMax moved to the SmallCap 600. |
| (d) Analyst actions |
| Stock | Action | Target vs close | Pre-mkt | | NFLX | Deutsche Bank (Bryan Kraft): Hold → Buy | $95 (from $100); +37.2% vs $69.23 | +1.16% | | MTN ‡ | Stifel: target cut; Jefferies also cut | $157; +13.7% vs $138.09 | −2.24% | | STAA † | Stifel: Hold → Buy | $31 (from $28) | n/q | | R † | Baird: Outperform → Neutral | $290 (from $245) | n/q |
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| (e) Corporate actions |
| AAR / MRO Holdings: 65% for ~$1.8bn equity at a $4.0bn EV (10.7x 2026 adj. EBITDA); ~$2.1bn new debt; $780M of AIR stock to Bain at $135; close in fiscal Q3. | | AstraZeneca / Summit: $2bn convertible preferred at an effective $18.36 per share (~12% of shares). | | AMD / World Labs: $8.2bn (announced Monday); Fei-Fei Li becomes AMD chief scientist. | | Oura postponed its U.S. IPO (50M shares at $40-44); Viking closed an upsized ~$548M raise; Shell took FID on LNG Canada Phase 2 (CNBC: $23bn). |
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| (f) After-hours → pre-market drift worth recording |
| FICO extended, not faded: −7.7% after hours ($776.00, Benzinga 5:06 PM) to −8.6% at 5:06 AM to −18.2% at 7:22 AM — the overnight read of the FHFA release got worse, not better. | | NVTS faded: +16.0% after hours ($13.61) to +10.6% ($12.97) — a third of the pop gone before the open. | | KMX reversed: $56.05 (−0.9%) after hours before results to +5.5% after the 5:50 AM release. |
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| Liquidity caveat: GS (2.4K), EFX (3.2K), TRU (2.1K), MTN (2.2K), AIR (3.8K), JEF (2.6K) and MS (1.9K) are thin prints; treat those percentages as indicative. FICO's 40.7K shares is a meaningful pre-market print for the name. |
5 · Overnight Earnings Scorecard |
| Ticker | EPS act vs cons | Revenue act vs cons | Guidance | Pre-mkt | Read-through | | KMX ‡ (BMO 5:50) | $1.16 vs $0.73 | $7.88bn vs $7.03bn | Buybacks resume; Nov 3 update | +5.50% | Used-car demand and auto credit healthy: CVNA, ALLY, COF | | CCL (BMO) | Pending ($1.36 cons) | Pending ($8.30bn cons) | Call 10:00 AM ET | +0.99% | Fuel and 2027 yields drive RCL, NCLH | | JEF † (AMC) | $1.08 vs $1.00 | $2.22bn vs $2.20bn | — | −1.12% | Record advisory: GS, MS, EVR; FICC −26% a caution | | MTN ‡ (AMC) | $(5.34) vs $(5.23) | $278.1M vs $271.6M | FY27 EBITDA $805-865M | −2.24% | Pass units −12%: discretionary leisure | | AIR † (AMC) | $1.49 vs $1.30 | $918M vs $880M | FY27 growth raised to low teens | +5.14% | Aftermarket MRO strength: HEI, TDG | | UEC † (BMO) | $(0.12) vs $(0.02) | $37.3M | — | n/q | Uranium $89.30/lb; CCJ sentiment |
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| Sources: company releases (Business Wire, PR Newswire, Stockhouse), consensus from Investing.com and Benzinga (MTN uses Benzinga's $(5.23); Investing.com had $(5.35)). Carnival's release had not crossed at 7:22 AM ET. Aggregate: FactSet (25 Sep) counts 9 S&P 500 Q3 reporters so far, 7 beating on EPS and 6 on revenue; blended Q3 EPS growth 29.1%, revenue 12.1%. The tape is paying for clean beats (KMX +5.5%, AIR +5.1%) and selling fixed-income and leisure blemishes (JEF, MTN). |
6 · U.S. Treasury Par Curve & Rates |
| Official par curve — Treasury.gov, 3:30 PM ET close (via the Closing Daily of 28 Sep) |
| Tenor | 28 Sep | 25 Sep | Δ 1-day | 21 Sep | Δ 1-week | | 1 Mo | 4.04% | 4.04% | 0 bp | 3.96% | +8 bp | | 3 Mo | 4.28% | 4.24% | +4 bp | 4.17% | +11 bp | | 1 Yr | 4.59% | 4.50% | +9 bp | 4.45% | +14 bp | | 2 Yr | 4.92% | 4.81% | +11 bp | 4.76% | +16 bp | | 3 Yr | 5.01% | 4.94% | +7 bp | 4.82% | +19 bp | | 5 Yr | 5.06% | 4.98% | +8 bp | 4.83% | +23 bp | | 7 Yr | 5.15% | 5.06% | +9 bp | 4.89% | +26 bp | | 10 Yr | 5.24% | 5.17% | +7 bp | 4.96% | +28 bp | | 20 Yr | 5.60% | 5.54% | +6 bp | 5.33% | +27 bp | | 30 Yr | 5.56% | 5.49% | +7 bp | 5.29% | +27 bp |
|
| Live pre-open block (CNBC 7:22 AM ET; Bloomberg 7:14 AM ET cross-check) |
| Tenor | Live | vs CNBC close | vs par close | Bloomberg | | 2 Yr | 4.908% | −1.6 bp | −1.2 bp | 4.91% | | 5 Yr | 5.048% | −2.2 bp | −1.2 bp | 5.05% | | 10 Yr | 5.213% | −2.9 bp | −2.7 bp | 5.21% | | 30 Yr | 5.539% | −2.3 bp | −2.1 bp | 5.54% |
|
| Spread | Par 28 Sep | Δ 1-day | Δ 1-week | Live 7:22 | | 2s10s | +32 bp | −4 bp | +12 bp | +30.5 bp (−1.5) | | 3M10Y | +96 bp | +3 bp | +17 bp | +101.5 bp* | | 2s30s | +64 bp | −4 bp | +11 bp | +63.1 bp (−0.9) |
|
| *Live 3M10Y uses CNBC's 3-month bill (4.198%, investment basis), not the par 4.28%, so it is not comparable to the par column. Reconciliation: 5.213 − 4.908 = 30.5 bp; 5.539 − 4.908 = 63.1 bp; par 5.24 − 4.92 = 32 bp. |
| Read. A small bull flattener overnight, the long end leading (10Y −2.7 bp, 30Y −2.1 bp vs par, 2Y −1.2 bp). The diagnostic says imported: Bunds −4.8 bp and gilts −6.0 bp moved about twice as much as Treasuries, oil fell ~1%, and the policy strip barely moved (CME October hike 70.3% vs 70.9%; ZQZ6 95.800 vs 95.795). This is not a Fed repricing and not a data move. The week so far is still a bear move: the 10-year is +28 bp since 21 September and the 2-year +16 bp. Supply and operations today: no coupon auction; $54bn 52-week and $85bn 6-week bills at 11:30 AM ET (prior 52-week 3.98%, 3.61x). NY Fed reserve-management bill purchases continue. Coupon supply resumes with 3s (Oct 6), 10s (Oct 7) and 30s (Oct 8). Fed speakers from 11:00 AM (Section 7). Vendor gap: CNBC's Monday close for the 2Y was 4.924% vs the 4.92% par fix; Bloomberg rounds to 2 dp. |
|
7 · U.S. Macroeconomic Calendar |
| ★ TODAY — Tuesday, September 29 — no 8:30 AM release; first gap risk is 9:00, the real one 10:00 |
|
| ET | Release / event | Cons | Prior | Sens. | What a beat / miss does | | 8:00 | SOFR (Sep 28 fix) | — | 3.90% | Med | Above 3.90% IORB = quarter-end stress; front-end bills cheapen | | 9:00 | Case-Shiller 20-city y/y (Jul) | 2.2% | 2.1% | Low | Marginal for builders | | 9:00 | FHFA HPI m/m (Jul) | 0.1% | 0.0% | Low | FHFA already in the tape via FICO | | 10:00 | JOLTS openings (Aug) | 7.23M | 7.271M | High | Above 7.4M: 2Y +3-5 bp, Oct hike odds up, small caps lag; below 7.0M: bull steepener, homebuilders | | 10:00 | Conf. Board confidence (Sep) | 89.2 | 89.4 | High | Inflation-expectations line matters more than headline | | 10:30 | Dallas Fed services (Sep) | — | 4.2 | Low | | | 11:00 | Fed Bowman (pre-recorded, cyber) | | | Low | Not policy | | 11:30 | 52-week ($54bn) / 6-week ($85bn) bills | | 3.98% / 3.87% | Med | Tail = front-end cheapening | | 12:40 | Fed Gov. Barr, economic outlook | | | Med | His 23 Sep remarks moved October pricing (CNBC) | | 1:00 | Chicago Fed Goolsbee | | | Med | Moderated Q&A | | 1:25 / 1:30 | Fed Gov. Cook (AI) / St. Louis Musalem | | | Med | | | 2:00 | NY Fed Williams, outlook & policy | | | High | Leadership signal on October; press Q&A | | 4:30 | API crude stocks | −1.9M | +1.786M | Low | Into Brent Nov expiry |
|
| Rows in the TODAY block are all pre-open or intraday; none lands before 9:30 except SOFR and the 9:00 house-price prints. Consensus: TradingEconomics consensus column (the Closing Daily's read had 90.0 for confidence and 7.24M for JOLTS; difference is vendor vintage). Sensitivity is this report's rating. |
| Overnight global data already released |
| Region | Release | Actual | Cons | Reaction | | Australia | RBA cash rate | 4.60% (+25 bp) | 4.60% | AUD 0.7029 then 0.7001 | | Spain | Flash CPI / HICP y/y (Sep) | 4.9% / 5.0% | 4.6% / 4.9% | Bunds rallied anyway | | Euro area | Economic sentiment (Sep) | 97.9 | 99.0 | Selling-price exp. 20.3 | | U.K. | Mortgage approvals (Aug) | 54,900 | n/a | Lowest since Dec 2023 | | Australia | Household spending (Aug) | 0.0% | +0.4% | |
|
|
| Date / ET | Release | Cons | Prior | Sens. | | Wed 8:15 | ADP employment (Sep) | 72K | 38K | High | | Wed 8:30 | Core PCE m/m / y/y (Aug) | 0.3% / 3.4% | 0.2% / 3.3% | Very High | | Wed 8:30 | Personal income / spending (Aug) | 0.4% / 0.8% | 0.4% / 0.2% | High | | Wed 8:30 | GDP Q2 third estimate | 1.5% | 2.1% | Medium | | Wed 9:45 | Chicago PMI (Sep) | 51 | 47.1 | Medium | | Wed 9:30 PM | China NBS PMIs (Sep) | 50.1 (mfg, Reuters poll) | 49.8 | Medium | | Thu 8:30 | Initial claims | 200K | 197K | High | | Thu 10:00 | ISM manufacturing / prices (Sep) | 54.9 / 72.5 | 54.6 / 71.1 | High | | Fri 8:30 | Nonfarm payrolls / UR / AHE m/m (Sep) | 84K / 4.1% / 0.3% | 162K / 4.1% / 0.3% | Very High |
|
|
| Date / ET | Release | Cons | Prior | Sens. | | Mon 10:00 | ISM services (Sep) | 54 (TE forecast) | 55.4 | High | | Tue 1:00 PM | 3-year note auction | — | 4.474% | Medium | | Wed 11:00 | NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations | 3.1% (TE forecast) | 3.6% | Medium | | Wed 1:00 / 2:00 PM | 10-year auction / FOMC minutes | — | 4.834% | High | | Thu 8:30 | Initial claims; 30-year auction (time TBC) | 200K | — | High | | Fri 10:00 | Michigan sentiment & 1-yr inflation exp. (prelim) | 48.6 | 48.1 / 4.6% | Very High |
|
| Look-ahead. The week's order of fire is JOLTS today, core PCE Wednesday (consensus +0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y; the Cleveland Fed nowcast tracks September core at 3.49%), ISM prices Thursday and payrolls Friday, where consensus has slid to 84K against Barclays' 50K. With ~70% priced for an October 28 hike, a hot PCE completes the case and a soft payroll print is the only thing on the calendar that can take it away. Government funding runs to 11 December under the September CR, so no data blackout this week. FOMC minutes (Oct 7) and bank earnings (Oct 13) follow. |
|
8 · Fed Funds Futures & Rate Path |
| Current target range 3.75-4.00% (raised 25 bp on 16 September); IORB 3.90%, ON RRP 3.75%, SRF minimum bid 4.00%. |
| (i) CME FedWatch — 28 October meeting (QuikStrike, data as of 7:05 AM ET) |
| Target (bps) | NOW | 1 DAY (28 Sep) | 1 WEEK (22 Sep) | 1 MONTH (28 Aug) | | 350-375 (cut) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.7% | | 375-400 (hold) | 29.7% | 29.1% | 44.6% | 52.7% | | 400-425 (+25) | 70.3% | 70.9% | 55.4% | 17.7% |
|
| Each column sums to 100.0%. Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor (6:45 AM ET, ZQV6 96.108) shows 74.6% hike / 25.4% hold; the Closing Daily's 5:45 PM read was 73.5%. The 4.3-point gap is vendor methodology and vintage (both off ZQV6: CME mid 96.1063 at 7:05 AM, Investing.com 96.108 at 6:45 AM). Neither moved more than a point overnight. |
| (ii) Momentum and (iii) hooks |
| CME's hike probability ran 17.7% (28 Aug) → 55.4% (22 Sep) → 70.9% (28 Sep) → 70.3% now: three weeks of hawkish repricing on oil, Barr's comments and hot August inflation, and a first flat session. Named hooks: JOLTS today, Williams at 2:00 PM, core PCE Wednesday, payrolls Friday. |
| (iv) 2026 meeting distributions — Investing.com, 6:45 AM ET: now [prev day] [prev week] |
| Meeting | 3.75-4.00 | 4.00-4.25 | 4.25-4.50 | Cum. above | Sum | | Oct 28 | 25.4% [25.4] [47.2] | 74.6% [74.6] [52.8] | 0.0% | 74.6% | 100.0% | | Dec 9 | 4.9% [4.4] [12.7] | 34.8% [33.9] [48.7] | 60.3% [61.8] [38.6] | 95.1% | 100.0% |
|
| (v) 2027 modal path |
| Meeting | Future | Modal range | Prob. | Prev day | Cum. above current | | Jan 27 | 95.725 | 4.25-4.50 | 45.7% | 45.8% | 97.9% | | Mar 17 | 95.525 | 4.50-4.75 | 42.3% | 43.0% | 99.4% | | Apr 28 | 95.425 | 4.50-4.75 | 35.5% | 34.8% | 99.6% | | Jun 9 | 95.260 | 4.75-5.00 | 33.3% | 34.1% | 99.8% | | Jul 28 | 95.215 | 4.75-5.00 | 32.6% | 33.1% | 99.8% | | Sep 15 | 95.165 | 4.75-5.00 | 31.5% | 32.0% | 99.8% | | Oct 27 | 95.140 | 4.75-5.00 | 31.3% | 31.8% | 99.8% | | Dec 8 | 95.170 | 4.75-5.00 | 29.8% | 30.0% | 99.5% |
|
| Cumulative above current = 100 minus the 3.75-4.00 hold bucket (and any lower bucket). Implied terminal at the cheapest contract: 100 − 95.140 = 4.860% (October 2027), vs 4.845% at Monday's close (+1.5 bp); ZQZ7 95.170 is unchanged. |
| (vi) Year-end probability ladders |
| Outcome | YE 2026 (Dec 9) | YE 2027 (Dec 8) | | 3.50-3.75 (−25) | 0.0% | 0.0% | | 3.75-4.00 (hold) | 4.9% | 0.5% | | 4.00-4.25 (+25) | 34.8% | 3.2% | | 4.25-4.50 (+50) | 60.3% | 11.9% | | 4.50-4.75 (+75) | 0.0% | 24.7% | | 4.75-5.00 (+100) | 0.0% | 29.8% | | 5.00-5.25 (+125) | 0.0% | 20.6% | | 5.25-5.50 (+150) | 0.0% | 7.7% | | 5.50-5.75 (+175) | 0.0% | 1.4% | | 5.75-6.00 (+200) | 0.0% | 0.1% | | Sum | 100.0% | 99.9% |
|
| (vii) Rounding: 2026 ladder sums to 100.0%; 2027 to 99.9% on the vendor's one-decimal buckets. Of the 2027 path rows, Apr and Jun sum to 100.1% and Sep and Dec to 99.9%. |
| Interpretation. (1) Level: an October hike is ~70-75% priced and a second by December ~60%; the market sees the range at 4.25-4.50% by year-end. (2) Overnight: almost nothing repriced — Oct −0.6 pt on CME, Dec modal −1.5 pt on Investing.com, terminal +1.5 bp — so the long-end rally is not a Fed story. (3) Asymmetry: with no 8:30 print, today's movers are JOLTS and Williams; a firm Williams at 2:00 PM is the likeliest path to 80%+ October odds before PCE. (4) Trade: the cleanest expression of ‘hike priced, cycle not’ is a Dec-26/Dec-27 fed funds steepener (ZQZ6 95.800 vs ZQZ7 95.170, 63 bp) into core PCE Wednesday; invalidation is a soft PCE that pulls ZQZ7 above 95.30. |
|
9 · FX Market |
| Pair | Level (7:24) | vs NY close | Overnight range | Driver | | DXY | 101.330 | +0.13% | 101.177-101.487 | Near 2-month high; hike pricing | | EUR/USD | 1.1348 | −0.19% | 1.1333-1.1374 | Spanish CPI no help; ECB already priced | | USD/JPY | 157.21 | −0.09% | 157.20-157.71 | Katayama ‘problematic’ weak yen; Bessent call | | GBP/USD | 1.3240 | −0.09% | 1.3222-1.3257 | Gilts outperform; Burnham speech | | USD/CHF (haven) | 0.8331 | +0.16% | 0.8317-0.8349 | Franc sold for a second day | | AUD/USD | 0.7001 | −0.19% | 0.6979-0.7029 | RBA hike sold as priced | | USD/CNY | 6.7030 | −0.11% | 6.7032-6.7086 | Onshore 6:55 AM; firm fix into summit | | USD/MXN (EM) | 17.918 | −0.33% | 17.921-18.026 | Carry bid as oil eases | | USD/KRW | 1,354.82 | −0.34% | 1,354.61-1,361.40 | Kospi only −0.27% |
|
| Quote basis: CNBC composite vs its New York close (previous_day_closing). EUR, GBP, AUD quoted in USD per unit (down = weaker foreign currency, coloured by foreign-currency direction); USD/xxx shown uncoloured. CNY's low printed above the last because the range stamp predates the 6:55 AM quote. |
| Take. A firmer dollar on falling U.S. yields is the second-order tell: the dollar is trading relative hawkishness (Fed ~70% vs an ECB on hold until December), not the 10-year. The franc is weaker for a second day on a risk-off-leaning tape, so haven demand is going to the dollar and gold, not CHF. For equities, +0.13% DXY is a mild headwind to the S&P foreign-revenue cohort (semis, staples) but MXN strength and a softer oil price help EM-sensitive industrials. |
|
10 · Commodities |
| Contract | Price (7:12) | Chg vs settle | % | YTD* | Driver | | WTI (Nov, NYMEX) | $91.71 | −0.89 | −0.96% | +62.19% | Gulf exports ~12.8 mb/d; settle $92.60 | | Brent (Nov, ICE; expires 30 Sep) | $104.41 | −0.87 | −0.83% | +73.71% | Overnight high $107.87 | | Brent (Dec, ICE) | $96.77 | −1.06 | −1.08% | — | Nov-Dec spread $7.64 (+$0.19) | | Natural gas (Nov) | $3.095 | −0.011 | −0.35% | −14.66% | LNG feedgas ~18 bcf/d; output 112.3 bcf/d | | Gold (Comex Dec) | $4,187.00 | +18.60 | +0.45% | −4.59% | Bounce off Monday's −3.5%; real yields ease | | Silver (Comex Dec) | $61.20 | −0.52 | −0.84% | −14.65% | Gold/silver ratio 68.4 | | Copper (Comex Dec) | $6.625 | −0.0085 | −0.13% | +15.47% | China PMIs tonight | | Aluminium (LME 3M, 28 Sep) | $3,251.50 | | −0.91% | +8.5% | Prior-day print (TE) | | Corn (CBOT Dec) | 522.75¢ | −0.25 | −0.05% | n/s | USDA grain stocks Wednesday | | KC wheat (Dec) | 736.75¢ | −9.00 | −1.21% | n/s | |
|
| *YTD: TradingEconomics spot/front returns through 28 Sep as carried in the Closing Daily (aluminium: TE); n/s = not sourced this run. Prices: CNBC quote service, front futures vs the prior official settle (WTI $92.60, Brent Nov $105.28, Dec $97.83, gold $4,168.40, silver $61.718). CNBC's RBOB/heating-oil fronts are still October contracts, so no crack spread is computed on them this morning. |
| Take. The barrel is losing its war premium on flows, not diplomacy: Trump rejected the ceasefire at the weekend, yet WSJ and Reuters both show Gulf exports recovering, and Brent Nov gave back $3.46 from its $107.87 overnight high. The curve is the caveat — Nov-Dec Brent at $7.64 is steep backwardation into Wednesday's expiry, so the prompt is tight even as outright prices ease; expect expiry-week volatility, not a trend. Brent-WTI (Nov/Nov) is $12.70. Gold's bounce with a firmer dollar says Monday's liquidation is exhausting. Equity read-through: energy (XOM, CVX, OXY) opens soft; airlines (UAL, DAL), chemicals and packaged food get the relief; miners (NEM +1.7%, FCX) follow gold and Europe's resource rally. |
|
11 · Credit & Funding |
| Measure | Level | Change | Context | | ICE BofA US IG OAS (25 Sep) | 81 bp | +2 bp d/d | +4 bp w/w; FRED one business day behind | | ICE BofA US HY OAS (25 Sep) | 293 bp | +13 bp d/d | +25 bp w/w; YTD +10 bp from 283 | | ICE BofA CCC & lower (25 Sep) | 1,128 bp | +16 bp d/d | +240 bp YTD | | CDX IG / HY 5y | No reliable data available at this time | | Not published by any open source reached | | Oracle 5y CDS | 227.15 bp | record | +16.2% w/w (Seeking Alpha); hyperscaler CDS wider | | SOFR (25 Sep) | 3.90% | +2 bp | = IORB 3.90%; 99th pct 3.99% vs SRF 4.00% | | EFFR (25 Sep) | 3.88% | 0 bp | −2 bp to IORB | | ON RRP take-up (28 Sep) | $0.851bn | +$0.28bn | Effectively depleted |
|
| SOFR and EFFR for 28 September publish at 8:00 and 9:00 AM ET, after this edition. HYG closed $77.54 (−0.41%) and LQD $102.47 (−0.72%) Monday, both at 52-week lows (Closing Daily). Standing repo usage was not retrievable. |
| Take. Credit has led equities lower for a week — HY +25 bp and CCC +45 bp on the week through Friday — and the supply calendar is about to test it: Paramount Skydance's ~$44bn package (about $32bn IG in eight tranches, ~$12.4bn high yield with the 10-year talked in the low 9% area, per Bloomberg via The Edge) prices Wednesday, which means rate-lock selling in 5s-10s today and tomorrow. Oracle's record CDS on its New Mexico data-center force majeure is the AI-capex credit tell. The funding line to watch is the 8:00 AM SOFR print: above 3.90% the day before quarter-end is the first genuine plumbing stress signal of the cycle; the equity read-through is banks and brokers. |
|
12 · Trading Views (desk-style, not personalized advice) |
| 1. Respect the FICO gap; do not fade it in the auction. Expression: short FICO on a failed reclaim of $740 in the first hour, sized small (single-name regulatory gap, wide auction). Catalyst: 9:30 opening auction and any FHFA timing detail. Invalidation: a 15-minute close above $760. Sizing: dollar-neutral against IGV to strip software beta. | | 2. Micron into the print via a relative-value leg. Expression: long MU / short SOXX, beta-neutral, into Wednesday AMC (implied ±8.06%). Catalyst: 4:30 PM ET Wednesday call; consensus EPS ~$31.45-31.68, revenue $50.8-51.3bn vs $50bn guide. Invalidation: MU below $1,040 (Monday's close less 1.3%) before the print. Sizing: half-risk until the number. | | 3. Energy-to-airlines rotation on flows. Expression: long UAL + DAL / short XLE, beta-neutral. Catalyst: Brent Nov expiry Wednesday and EIA stocks 10:30 AM Wednesday. Invalidation: Brent Nov above $107.87 (overnight high). Sizing: gross 1x, dollar-neutral. | | 4. Front-end carry into JOLTS. Expression: long 2-year notes (ZTZ6) at a 4.91% yield, per WSJ's HOTS case. Catalyst: JOLTS 10:00 AM, Williams 2:00 PM. Invalidation: 2-year above 4.96%, 5 bp through the pre-open level. Sizing: DV01-matched to any equity-duration longs. | | 5. Carnival event straddle, not direction. Expression: CCL at-the-money straddle vs the ±6.98% implied, or fade the first 15-minute move if the stock breaks $23.50 / $21.00. Catalyst: release and 10:00 AM call. Invalidation: a move inside ±3% by 10:30 (implied rich). Sizing: premium-at-risk only. |
|
| Vol note. VIX 15.86 pre-open (−1.3%) with October VX at 17.54 — contango of 1.68 points, so no stress term structure. VIX-implied one-day S&P move: 15.86 / √252 = ±1.00%, ~77 points on 7,683.69 (an SPX 0DTE straddle price was not retrieved). Levels: prior close 7,683.69; overnight ES range 7,716.00-7,758.50 equals ~7,653-7,695 cash at the 63.06 basis; 7,700 is the round number the tape opens against; Monday's cash low 7,666.60. Not personalized investment advice. |
13 · S&P 500 Earnings Calendar |
| ★ TODAY — Tuesday, September 29 |
|
| BMO: Carnival (CCL) — release this morning (not out at 7:22 AM ET), call 10:00 AM ET. Consensus EPS $1.36 / revenue $8.30bn (Benzinga; Investing.com $1.42 / $8.54bn); implied move ±6.98%. Pre-market +0.99%. |
| AMC: no confirmed S&P 500 reporter. FedEx Freight (FDXF) appears on Kiplinger's list at $1.39 EPS but its IR has announced no date — unverified. Non-members tonight: Concentrix (CNXC, cons $2.71). |
| Current week — Sep 28 to Oct 2 (remaining days) |
|
| Wed 9/30 — BMO: Jabil (JBL) (call 8:30; cons $4.06 / $9.69bn; implied ±9.77%), FactSet (FDS) (call 9:00; $4.33 / $629.8M; ±9.70%). AMC: Micron (MU) (call 4:30 PM ET; $31.45 / $50.75bn, Benzinga; ±8.06%). |
| Thu 10/1 — BMO: Accenture (ACN) (call 8:00; $3.18 / $18.03bn; ±9.31%), McCormick (MKC) (call 8:00; $0.76 / $1.98bn; ±7.79%). AMC: Nike (NKE) (~4:15 PM release, 5:00 PM call; $0.44 / $11.33bn; ±7.49%). |
| Fri 10/2 — no S&P 500 reporter. |
| Next week — Oct 5 to Oct 9 |
|
| Mon 10/5 — none. Tue 10/6 — AMC: Constellation Brands (STZ) ($3.56 / $2.54bn; call Wed 8:00 AM). |
| Wed 10/7 — none. Thu 10/8 — BMO: PepsiCo (PEP) (~6:00 AM release, 8:15 call; $2.30 / $25.0bn). Fri 10/9 — BMO: Delta Air Lines (DAL) (call 10:00; $1.99 / $17.60bn, MarketBeat). |
| Changes vs the prior calendar (Closing Daily, 28 Sep): CarMax (Tue), Conagra (Wed) and Lamb Weston (Tue 10/6) moved to the borderline list — S&P DJI releases cited in this run's research show KMX, CAG and LW moved out of the index (Oct 2025, Jun 2026, Mar 2026), while the Closing Daily's Investing.com component capture still carried them; unresolved, see Section 16. No other additions, removals or re-datings. Consensus figures are Benzinga unless noted; implied moves are Benzinga's options-based estimates. Bank season opens Oct 13 (JPM, JNJ). |
14 · Risk Map — Today's Session |
| ★ TODAY — event clock, Tuesday September 29 (full session, 9:30 AM-4:00 PM ET) |
|
| ET | Event | Why it matters | | 8:00 | SOFR fix (Sep 28) | Above IORB = quarter-end funding stress | | 9:00 | Case-Shiller / FHFA HPI | Low | | 9:30 | Cash open | FICO gap; chips vs energy | | ~9:15-10:00 | Carnival release and 10:00 call | Cruise group, leisure | | 10:00 | JOLTS; Conference Board confidence | The day's only High-sensitivity data | | 11:00-1:30 | Bowman, Barr (12:40), Goolsbee (1:00), Cook (1:25), Musalem (1:30) | Hike-path colour | | 11:30 | 52-week / 6-week bill auctions | Front-end demand | | Midday (time TBC) | White House AI meeting; OpenAI DevDay | AI capex / regulation headlines | | 2:00 | Williams (NY Fed), press Q&A | October signal | | 4:00 / 4:30 | Close; API crude; Concentrix AMC | Into Brent Nov expiry |
|
| Crowded consensuses to stress-test |
| ‘October hike is done’ (70-75%): breaks on a JOLTS print below ~7.0M plus a soft Williams; the tell would be the 2-year back below 4.85%. | | ‘Oil premium is fading’: breaks on Brent Nov through $107.87 or any Hormuz incident; the Nov-Dec backwardation ($7.64) says the physical market is not relaxed. | | ‘Buy the chip dip into Micron’: breaks if SOX cannot hold +1% into 10:30 with the 10-year still above 5.20%. | | ‘Credit will follow equities back’: HY at 293 bp and +25 bp on the week; a sloppy Paramount book Wednesday breaks it. |
|
| Two-sided geopolitics and structure. Up-side: evidence of Iran-U.S. talks resuming or further export recovery. Down-side: renewed strikes (WSJ reported the President expects bombing after the midterms), China's new base in Laos and pre-summit chip-control headlines ahead of Xi's Wednesday arrival. Structural: quarter-end Wednesday (BNY's Yu flags month-end passive flows not aligned to data), SOFR at IORB, FHFA's reach into scoring and data vendors. What vol is and is not pricing: VIX 15.86 implies ~±1.0% (77 points) today — it prices JOLTS and Fed-speak, but with contango intact and VIX below Monday's 16.07 close it is not pricing a Hormuz re-escalation or a disorderly quarter-end. |
|
| Section 15 (Source Links) and Section 16 (Data Notes & Conflicts) are in the companion file US_CrossAsset_Opening_2026-09-29_DataNotes.txt. |
| U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Opening Daily — Tuesday, September 29, 2026. Data as of ~7:22 AM ET; sources named in-line. Prepared for institutional investors; not personalized investment advice. |