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U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Opening Daily
Tuesday, August 4, 2026 — Pre-Open Briefing | Data as of ~7:46 AM ET | News window: Mon 4:00 PM ET → Tue ~7:46 AM ET
Prepared for Institutional Investors. Not Personalized Investment Advice; Verify Independently before Acting. | Source Links and Data Notes & Conflicts provided in the companion text file (US_CrossAsset_Opening_2026-08-04_DataNotes.txt). |
1 · Pre-Open Dashboard |
| Equity futures (Sep 2026 E-minis) and the implied cash open |
| Contract | Level | Chg (pts) | %Chg | Prior cash close | Implied open | | S&P 500 (ESU6) | 7,647.50 | +19.25 | +0.25% | 7,600.49 | ≈7,627.25 (+26.8, +0.35%) | | Nasdaq-100 (NQU6) | 29,169.50 | +277.75 | +0.96% | 28,776.80 | ≈29,059.45 (+282.7, +0.98%) | | Dow (YMU6) | 53,784 | +450 | +0.84% | 53,178.41 | ≈53,709.6 (+531.2, +1.00%) | | Russell 2000 (RTYU6) | 2,999.70 | +10.4 | +0.35% | 2,981.73 | ≈2,991.1 (+9.4, +0.31%) |
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| Arithmetic, shown. CNBC fair values (board stamped 7:34–7:35 AM ET): S&P 20.25, Nasdaq 110.05, Dow 74.41, Russell 8.61. Implied open = futures − fair value: 7,647.50 − 20.25 = 7,627.25, i.e. +26.76 pts / +0.35% on a 7,600.49 close. Futures check: ES +19.25 on a 7,628.25 settle = +0.252%; NQ +277.75 on 28,891.75 = +0.961%; YM +450 on 53,334 = +0.844%; RTY +10.4 on 2,989.30 = +0.348%. The ETF tape at 7:45 confirms the shape: DIA +1.05%, QQQ +1.03%, SPY +0.34%, IWM +0.49% — the S&P still sits at a third of the move in the Dow and the Nasdaq. |
| Prior cash closes (the anchor) and volatility |
| Reference | Aug 3 close | Aug 3 %chg | Now | | S&P 500 | 7,600.49 | +1.48% | — | | Nasdaq Composite | 25,913.90 | +2.13% | — | | Nasdaq 100 | 28,776.80 | +1.78% | — | | Dow Jones Industrials | 53,178.41 | +1.32% record close | — | | Russell 2000 | 2,981.73 | +1.72% | — | | PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) | 11,430.4 | +1.06% | — | | VIX | 15.86 | −0.81% | 15.61, −0.25 (−1.58%); VXN 24.77, unchanged |
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| Rates, FX, commodities, crypto |
| Instrument | Level | Change | Basis / note | | UST 2Y | 4.233% | −1.7 bp | vs official 4.25% par close (3:30 PM ET 8/3) | | UST 5Y | 4.380% | −2.0 bp | vs 4.40% | | UST 10Y | 4.669% | −3.1 bp | vs 4.70%. The belly led a bull-flattening as crude reversed lower | | UST 30Y | 5.222% | −0.8 bp | vs 5.23% | | DXY | 99.91 | −0.05% | Range 99.89–100.06; a fourth session pinned at 100 | | EUR/USD | 1.1520 | +0.13% | CNBC board, 7:34 AM ET | | USD/JPY | 157.59 | +0.27% | Yen giving back post-intervention gains | | WTI (Sep) | $79.77 | −$0.57, −0.71% | Round-tripped: +0.88% at 6:50, negative by 7:30 | | Brent (Oct) | $83.55 | −$0.22, −0.26% | Was +2.4% near $86 at 6:13 AM. The whole bounce is gone | | Gold (spot) | $4,060.13 | +0.21% | Comex Dec futures $4,116.50, +0.64% | | Copper (Sep) | 664.90 c/lb | +1.66% | Two-month high; LME near $14,000/t | | Bitcoin | $63,697 | little changed | Bloomberg, 6:57 AM ET |
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| Global equities overnight |
| Index | Level | %Chg | Index | Level | %Chg | | Nikkei 225 | 63,957.53 | +0.32% | Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,468.25 | +0.65% | | Kospi | 6,358.95 | +1.62% | DAX | 26,165.73 | +0.63% | | Hang Seng | 25,852.92 | −0.60% | FTSE 100 | 10,901.46 | +0.40% | | Shanghai Composite | 3,822.28 | +0.33% | CAC 40 | 8,627.26 | +0.16% | | Shenzhen Component | 13,885.71 | +3.25% | FTSE MIB | 53,456.00 | +1.11% | | S&P/ASX 200 | 9,145.80 | +1.40% | IBEX 35 | 19,989.16 | +0.03% | | Taiwan Weighted | 43,360.66 | −0.06% | AEX | 1,112.23 | +0.91% |
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| Asia at the close; Europe live at 07:13–07:35 ET. Shenzhen — low 13,537.76, a 2.6% intraday recovery — is the largest overnight index move anywhere; FTSE MIB is the best major in Europe and IBEX the worst. Per-bloc catalysts are in section 3. |
| Sources: CNBC pre-markets board and CNBC Bonds & Rates; Bloomberg /markets, /rates-bonds, /currencies, /commodities and the August 4 Markets Wrap (US Edition); WSJ World, Business, U.S., Economy, Tech and Markets & Finance; Investing.com pre-market movers, world indices, VIX and DXY; Earnings Whispers 8/4 day page; Treasury.gov official par curve. Full list in the companion text file. |
| The overnight in one paragraph. The index is up and the market is not — this is the narrowest constructive open in weeks, and the arithmetic proves it. Dow futures are +0.84% and Nasdaq-100 futures +0.96%, but S&P futures are only +0.25% and Russell futures +0.35%, and the ETF tape says the same thing (DIA +1.05%, QQQ +1.03%, SPY +0.34%, IWM +0.49% at 7:45). The gap has widened through the morning, not closed: at 6:54 the split was Dow +0.57% / Nasdaq +0.77% / S&P +0.19%; forty minutes later it is +0.84% / +0.96% / +0.25%. An index that sits at a third of the move in both of its own sub-universes is telling you the members in neither is where the selling is — and that is exactly where this morning's earnings are landing. Caterpillar printed $8.17 against a $6.25 Whisper consensus on $20.54bn of revenue against $19.31bn — a 30.7% EPS surprise — and is +10.35% at $915.92, worth roughly 527 Dow points on its own against an implied index gain of 531; Palantir is +14.99% at $144.49 after 93% revenue growth and a ~$498m guidance raise; Zebra beat by 41.7% and is +8.35%; ON Semiconductor guided AI data-centre revenue to more than double in 2026 and is +6.97%. Against that: FIS −10.67%, Cummins −7.69%, Aptiv −7.86% (after beating EPS by 14.8%), Rockwell −5.19%, DuPont −4.28% (after beating by 6.8%), Nike −3.38%, Cardinal Health −3.13%, Prologis −2.98% on the Segro equity offering and Revvity −2.75%. The megacaps are no help either: Amazon −2.37% (Bezos filed a Form 144 to sell 15m shares, ~$4.07bn), Microsoft −1.95%, Meta −1.73%, Alphabet −1.16%, Apple −0.15% — giving back a share of Monday's 4.5–6% pops, while the beaten-up hardware complex leads instead: Micron +4.36%, Intel +4.86%, AMD +4.82%, Western Digital +5.82%, Seagate +5.26%, HPE +5.06%, Corning +8.36%. Cross-asset, the overnight story has already reversed once: crude spiked when Iran denied Monday's talks narrative and Trump called Tehran “unbelievably duplicitous” — WTI +0.88% and Brent +1.07% at 6:50 — and by 7:30 the entire bounce was gone, WTI −0.71% at $79.77 and Brent −0.26% at $83.55, with refined products down harder (heating oil −1.27%, RBOB −1.58%). That took inflation compensation out of the curve: the 10-year is 4.669%, 3.1 bp below the official par close, with the 5-year −2.0 and the 2-year −1.7 — a belly-led bull-flattening, alongside a Bund 2.5 bp lower. The dollar is 99.91, flat for a fourth session, the yen is still giving back the intervention at 157.59, and the industrial metals are the one clean directional trade: copper +1.66% at a two-month high near $14,000/t, silver +2.47%, platinum +4.89%, gold spot only +0.21%. Futures ranking NQ > YM > RTY > ES, with the S&P last. What this hands the 9:30 open: a gap-up owned by four tickers, a broad cohort underneath it being sold on good numbers and bad guidance, and a crude tape that has now refused to pay for both the peace and the war inside twelve hours — so fade the index gap, own the dispersion, and remember the only scheduled event before the bell is an 8:30 trade balance, which leaves 10:00 JOLTS as the morning's real air pocket. |
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2 · Overnight Hot Spots — ranked by tradability at today's open |
| 1. The index gap is a four-ticker gap, and it is widening. Buy dispersion, not beta. [Equities] S&P futures +0.25% against Dow futures +0.84% and Nasdaq-100 futures +0.96%; DIA +1.05%, QQQ +1.03%, SPY +0.34%, IWM +0.49% on the ETF tape at 7:45. An index cannot sit at a third of the move in both of its constituent sub-universes unless the residual — the S&P members in neither the Dow nor the NDX — is being sold. It is, and the split has widened since 6:54 (Dow +0.57% / Nasdaq +0.77% / S&P +0.19% then). Up: CAT +10.35%, GLW +8.36%, ZBRA +8.35%, ON +6.97%, WDC +5.82%, IT +5.59%, STX +5.26%, HPE +5.06%, INTC +4.86%, AMD +4.82%, MU +4.36%, PLTR +14.99%. Down: FIS −10.67%, APTV −7.86%, CMI −7.69%, ROK −5.19%, DD −4.28%, NKE −3.38%, CAH −3.13%, PLD −2.98%, RVTY −2.75%, plus AMZN −2.37%, MSFT −1.95%, META −1.73%, GOOGL −1.16%. Hook: watch whether SPY closes the gap to QQQ in the first thirty minutes. If it has not by 10:00, this is a narrow-tape day and the opening-auction imbalance will be one-sided in a handful of names. Invalidation: SPY converging up toward QQQ by 10:00, or IWM extending above +0.8%. | | 2. Caterpillar's beat is the largest single-name industrial surprise of the season and it is doing essentially all of the Dow's work. [Equities] EPS $8.17 vs a $6.25 Whisper consensus — a 30.7% surprise — on revenue of $20.54bn vs $19.31bn, growth +24.0% y/y (Earnings Whispers, reported 6:30 AM ET). The stock is +10.35% at $915.92 at 7:45, having printed +9.15% at 7:11, faded to +8.52% at 7:15 and then re-accelerated — the dip was bought. On a Dow divisor near 0.163 an $85.89 move is worth roughly 527 Dow points against an implied index gain of 531, which means the rest of the Dow is contributing essentially nothing. Read-through: DE, TEX, URI, PCAR, the mining-capex chain and the electrical-infrastructure/AI-power theme; AMETEK's +5.0% surprise corroborates it. Hook: the guidance colour on the call is the only thing that can break this. A beat this size that gives back to +5% by 10:30 is distribution, not a re-rating. Invalidation: CAT losing $900 in the first hour. | | 3. Palantir did everything and is still fading — the after-hours-to-pre-market drift is the tell. [Equities] Revenue $1.935bn, +93% y/y, vs $1.81bn; adjusted EPS $0.41 vs $0.33–0.34; U.S. revenue +115% to $1.57bn; U.S. commercial +149% to $764m; government +90% to $809m; adjusted FCF $1.22bn; FY26 guidance raised ~$498m to a $8.154bn midpoint (+82%). The stock was +16% on Bloomberg's 6:13 AM wrap, +15.48% at 7:03, +14.58% at 7:15 and +14.99% at 7:45 on 4.18m shares — it faded 140 bp and then stabilised, which is a healthier tape than a straight-line give-back. Hook: $145.90 was the overnight high. A print above it on the cash open means real money is buying the number; a first-hour trade back under $138 means the after-hours pop is being distributed. | | 4. Crude round-tripped the entire Iran-denial bounce inside forty minutes, and products fell harder than the barrel. [Commodities / Equities] At 6:50 WTI was +0.88% at $81.05 and Brent +1.07% at $84.67. By 7:30 WTI was −0.71% at $79.77 and Brent −0.26% at $83.55 — the whole overnight gain gone, and gone on no new headline. Refined products fell further: heating oil −1.27% to 382.81 c/gal and RBOB −1.58% to 291.89 c/gal. Run the crack: heating oil at 382.81 c/gal is $160.78/bbl, less WTI at $79.77 = $81.01 against $82.11 at Monday's settle — $1.10/bbl of distillate margin gone, with the gasoline crack $1.40 narrower at $42.82. Meanwhile MPC reported EPS of $17.73 vs $14.52 on $52.34bn of revenue vs $34.83bn — a backward-looking print into a forward-looking compression, and the second consecutive session the crack has given ground. Hook: if MPC opens green on the beat and closes red, the refining trade is over as a momentum trade. PSX reports Wednesday 7:00 AM. | | 5. Iran denied the talks and Trump called Tehran “unbelievably duplicitous” — and the oil market shrugged it off within the hour. [Commodities / Equities / FX] WSJ: Iran's foreign ministry says there are no talks with the U.S. on the Strait of Hormuz, and that discussions with Oman — not Washington — are what continues. Trump reframed this as Iran's “last chance”, and separately Reuters reports the U.S. has used “virtually all” of its long-range precision missiles during the war. Crude's response was a $0.71 rally that lasted forty minutes and then fully reversed. Hook: a $4.32 down-day followed by a bounce the market refused to hold is the clearest possible statement that this tape will not pay for the peace and will not pay for the war either — which is the definition of an options market. Confirming: Brent back through $86.50 puts the premium on; a close below $83.00 says Monday was right. | | 6. Beat-and-fall is the dominant pattern this morning, and Aptiv is the cleanest example. [Equities] APTV beat on EPS by 14.8% — $1.63 against $1.42 — and is −7.86%, on revenue of $3.27bn vs $3.32bn and growth of −37.1%. DuPont beat by 6.8% with growth of −44.2% and is −4.28%; Cummins is −7.69% and FIS −10.67% on their own prints; Apollo missed by 2.8% and Kimberly-Clark by 10.0%. Set that against Bloomberg Intelligence's aggregate — 86% of S&P 500 reporters beating, the highest in five years, with blended EPS growth +29% y/y — and the diagnosis writes itself: the beat rate has stopped being information. What is paid for is forward guidance and revenue quality; what is punished is a beat delivered on cost control into a shrinking top line. Hook: screen the 10:00–11:00 tape for names green on a beat and red by 11:00 — that is your short book. | | 7. Amazon is down 2.4% on a Bezos Form 144 — a supply event, not an information event. [Equities] The filing discloses an intent to sell 15 million shares through Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, roughly $4.07bn, approximate sale date August 3, under a 10b5-1 plan adopted 14 November 2025 — so it carries no view, but it does carry flow, and it lands the session after AMZN crossed $3 trillion. AMZN is −2.37% at $277.30 on 1.22m shares and has held exactly that percentage across three pulls between 7:11 and 7:45 — a steady, mechanical offer rather than a panic. Hook: known size, known window. $275 holding through the first hour means the supply is being absorbed; a break of $272 turns a mechanical seller into a momentum one. | | 8. Copper is at a two-month high on a tariff decision, and it is dragging the industrial-metals complex with it. [Commodities / Equities] Comex September copper 664.90 c/lb, +1.66%, with Bloomberg reporting LME copper nearing $14,000 a tonne, a two-month high, as traders position around ballooning U.S. warehouse inventories ahead of an expected Trump import-tariff decision. Alongside: silver +2.47% to $59.29 and platinum spot +4.89% to $1,712.30, while gold spot is up only 0.21% at $4,060.13. The industrially levered metals are bid and the monetary one is not — a growth/tariff trade, not a debasement trade. Read-through: FCX and the copper miners; the wire-and-cable complex (Atkore beat by 6.1% and is being acquired by Prysmian at $95.00/share); the AI-power names. Hook: the tariff headline is binary and unscheduled. Own the miners through calls, not stock. |
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3 · Global Markets Overnight — Asia & Europe |
| Asia closes and the catalyst behind each bloc |
| Index | Close | %Chg | Catalyst | | Nikkei 225 | 63,957.53 | +0.32% | Toyota unveiled a ¥1tn ($6.3bn) buyback and lifted its profit outlook on resilient hybrid demand and a weak yen | | Kospi | 6,358.95 | +1.62% | July CPI +2.8% y/y vs 3.0% consensus (3.2% prior); −0.2% m/m vs +0.1% — a downside inflation surprise | | Taiwan Weighted | 43,360.66 | −0.06% | Flat; no semiconductor leadership handed to the U.S. | | Hang Seng | 25,852.92 | −0.60% | The only major Asian index materially red; HK June retail sales +4.6% y/y vs +7.9% prior | | Shanghai Composite | 3,822.28 | +0.33% | — | | Shenzhen Component | 13,885.71 | +3.25% | Traded as low as 13,537.76 — a 2.6% intraday recovery. Domestic small/mid-cap tech, not foreign flow | | S&P/ASX 200 | 9,145.80 | +1.40% | The commodity-import beneficiary; copper at a two-month high | | Nifty 50 | 24,614.90 | −0.64% | — | | BSE Sensex | 78,428.95 | −0.27% | — |
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| The Asian split is the point. Korea and Shenzhen ripped, Hong Kong and India fell, Taiwan was flat and Japan barely moved. There is no single Asian factor this morning — Korea traded its own CPI, Shenzhen traded domestic liquidity, Japan traded one corporate buyback, and Hong Kong traded a soft retail-sales print. For a U.S. desk the operative fact is what Asia did not hand over: no semiconductor leadership from Taiwan, and a Hang Seng that could not join. |
| Europe live, 07:13–07:14 ET, mid-session |
| Levels are in the section 1 dashboard: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.65%, FTSE MIB +1.11%, OMXS30 +1.05%, AEX and BEL 20 +0.87%, DAX +0.63%, SMI +0.45%, FTSE 100 +0.40%, CAC 40 +0.16%, IBEX 35 +0.03%. Bloomberg has the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.4–0.6% and set for a record-high close. Movers: Bayer and BP rose on earnings beats (BP printed $2.22 vs $1.98 on $70.11bn of revenue vs $67.71bn and is selling its Archaea biogas business); HSBC announced a fresh buyback and raised its cost-cutting target on a beat; Zalando plunged 16% on a full-year guidance cut; Deutsche Lufthansa fell on a warning about volatile jet-fuel prices — the crude rebound showing up in an equity P&L within twelve hours. Saudi Aramco reported a 33% jump in Q2 profit, keeping exports moving through a pipeline that bypasses Hormuz. |
| Global rates and the risk-appetite proxy |
| 10Y sovereign | Yield | 1-day | | Germany (Bund) | 3.126% | −2.5 bp | | UK (Gilt) | 4.945% | −1.0 bp | | Japan (JGB) | 2.82% | +2 bp | | Italy (BTP) | 3.92% | −1 bp | | France (OAT) | 3.93% | −0 bp | | Spain | 3.58% | −0 bp | | Greece | 3.81% | −1 bp | | Canada | 3.62% | −4 bp | | Australia | 4.97% | +4 bp |
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| BTP–Bund spread: 77 bp, 1 bp tighter. Gilt–Bund: 182 bp. Yields in the table are the 7:00 AM Bloomberg marks; by 7:45 the Bund had rallied to 3.126% (−2.5 bp) and the 10-year Gilt to 4.945% (−1.0 bp) as crude reversed lower (CNBC live board). Periphery versus core is the cleanest risk-appetite read available and it is quietly constructive: Italy is Europe's best equity market (+1.11%) with its sovereign spread tightening a basis point, while Spain's IBEX is the worst (+0.03%) with Bonos unchanged. That is a country-specific Italian earnings bid rather than a broad periphery-credit rally — do not over-read it. The Gilt is the underperformer across the curve (2Y +2.8 bp to 4.335%, 10Y +1.7 bp to 4.973%, 30Y +1.4 bp to 5.704%) after a 30-year auction cleared at 4.613% against 4.284% previously. The German 2-year Schatz cleared at 2.780% vs 2.770%. |
| Overnight data already released: Korea CPI +2.8% y/y (cons 3.0%, prior 3.2%); Japan monetary base −13.8% y/y (cons −13.0%); Japan 10Y JGB auction 2.840% (prior 2.730%); UK 30Y Gilt auction 4.613% (prior 4.284%); Spanish unemployment change +19.5K (cons −18.4K) — a clear miss; Italian retail sales −0.1% m/m (cons +0.3%); Hong Kong June retail sales +4.6% y/y (prior +7.9%); Italian car registrations +3.9% y/y (prior +10.6%). Full detail in section 7. |
| What this hands the U.S. open. A mild, non-committal risk-on with no imported duration move. Bunds unchanged and OATs unchanged means there is no European bid pushing the 10-year Treasury around — the overnight U.S. rates move of under one basis point is genuinely domestic and genuinely nothing. By U.S. sector: industrials get a Caterpillar-and-Italy tailwind; semis get nothing from Taiwan but everything from ON Semi's own guide; energy equities get a modest crude bid with a compressing crack, which favours the E&Ps over the refiners; airlines get a jet-fuel warning from Lufthansa as a live negative read-across (UAL, DAL, AAL); consumer discretionary gets a Zalando guidance cut, an Italian car-registration slowdown and a soft Hong Kong retail print; materials get copper at a two-month high. By asset class: rates flat, dollar flat, yen weak, crude up, products down, industrial metals up, gold flat. |
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4 · Pre-Market Movers & Single-Name Catalysts |
| All quotes Investing.com pre-market board, 07:11–07:15:31 ET unless stated. Pre-market volumes are a fraction of regular-session volume; percentage moves on sub-100k share counts are indicative only and are flagged. |
Up | Palantir (PLTR) +14.99% to $144.49 on 4.18m shares — the best-supported move on the board. Revenue $1.935bn, +93% y/y vs $1.81bn; adjusted EPS $0.41 vs $0.33–0.34; FY26 guidance raised ~$498m to a $8.154bn midpoint. Drift: +16% (6:13 AM) → +15.48% (7:03) → +14.58% (7:15) → +14.99% (7:45). Faded 140 bp, then stabilised. | | Caterpillar (CAT) +10.35% to $915.92 — EPS $8.17 vs $6.25 (+30.7%); revenue $20.54bn vs $19.31bn; growth +24.0%. Drift: +9.15% (7:11) → +8.52% (7:15) → +10.35% (7:45) — the dip was bought. | | Corning (GLW) +8.36% to $158.90 — accelerating across four prints on no verified company release this session; the driver is the AI optical-fibre theme plus Monday's Truist upgrade to Buy (target $175). | | Zebra (ZBRA) +8.35% to $316.00 — EPS $6.35 vs $4.48 (+41.7%); revenue $1.56bn vs $1.50bn; growth +20.4%. The largest percentage EPS surprise of the morning. | | ON Semiconductor (ON) +6.97% to $86.00 — reported after Monday's close: revenue $1.60bn vs $1.589bn; adjusted EPS $0.74 vs $0.71; Q3 guide $1.65–1.75bn on 40–42% gross margin and $0.81–0.93 EPS; AI data-centre revenue guided to more than double in 2026. +7% after hours → +6.97% pre-market: the after-hours move held rather than faded. | | Western Digital (WDC) +5.82% to $557.89, Seagate (STX) +5.26% to $874.76, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) +5.06% to $52.78, Intel (INTC) +4.86% to $95.42 on 2.64m shares, Micron (MU) +4.36% to $865.68 on 1.57m shares — none of these reported. The entire storage, memory and AI-hardware complex is being re-rated off ON Semi's data-centre guide. WDC and SanDisk report Wednesday after the close. | | AMD +4.82% to $508.01 on 787k shares — reports tonight at 4:15 PM ET. Consensus $1.61 EPS on $11.32bn against the company's own $11.2bn ±$300m guide. Options imply ±8.5% (a $440.39–$522.67 range); TipRanks cites 12.28%. AMD has beaten EPS in 10 of its last 12 quarters and closed lower the day after each of its last four reports. NVIDIA +1.43% to $209.60. | | Non-S&P 500: Applied Optoelectronics +16.59% (reports 8/6) and Coherent +13.42% (reports 8/12) — the AI optical-interconnect complex is bid on no company release of its own, which makes it the highest-beta and lowest-conviction move on the board; Wix +14.36% on $1.39 vs $1.20; Backblaze +19.31%, Voyager +16.24%, Ibotta +16.36%, POET +14.00%; DigitalOcean printed $0.45 vs $0.26; Atkore printed $1.74 vs $1.64 and is being acquired by Prysmian at $95.00. |
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Down | Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) −10.67% to $40.00 — reported at 7:30 AM against a consensus of $1.47 EPS on $3.38bn; actuals had not populated the day page at the time of the pull. The largest S&P 500 decline on the board. Reads to GPN (which reports Wednesday), FISV and the payments complex. | | Aptiv (APTV) −7.86% to $52.73 — beat EPS by 14.8% ($1.63 vs $1.42) and missed revenue ($3.27bn vs $3.32bn) with growth of −37.1%. The morning's cleanest beat-and-fall. | | Cummins (CMI) −7.69% to $598.95 — reported at 7:30 AM against $7.33 EPS on $9.33bn; actuals not yet published. The read-across matters: Cummins down 7.7% on the same morning Caterpillar is up 10.4% is a powertrain-versus-machines split, not an industrial-cycle signal. | | Rockwell Automation (ROK) −5.19% to $456.03 — reported before the open; prior close $480.98. Cross-checked independently on StockAnalysis at 7:36 AM ET. | | DuPont (DD) −4.28% to $135.24 — beat by 6.8% ($1.88 vs $1.76) on in-line revenue of $1.82bn, but growth of −44.2%. Beat-and-fall number two. | | Nike (NKE) −3.38% to $41.20 — no catalyst identified; independently confirmed on StockAnalysis at 7:43 AM ET ($41.25, −3.26%, prior close $42.64), so this is a real give-back of Monday's +2.23%, not a bad quote. Cardinal Health (CAH) −3.13% to $228.22 — does not report until 8/11; unexplained. Revvity (RVTY) −2.75% to $112.05 — reported before the open. | | Prologis (PLD) −2.98% to $139.86 — the equity offering attached to the £14bn Segro acquisition, whose final terms were agreed this morning (Bloomberg). | | Amazon (AMZN) −2.37% to $277.30 on 1.22m shares — Bezos Form 144: 15m shares, ~$4.07bn, via Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, approximate sale date August 3, 10b5-1 plan adopted 14 November 2025. Flat in percentage terms across three pulls — a mechanical offer, not a panic. | | Microsoft (MSFT) −1.95% to $478.14, Meta (META) −1.73% to $580.00, Alphabet A (GOOGL) −1.16% to $369.19, Apple (AAPL) −0.15% to $302.97 — no catalysts; giving back part of Monday's 4.5–6% megacap pops. Bloomberg reports Apple exceeded $10bn in annual India sales for the first time. | | Spotify (SPOT) fell — EPS $3.03 vs $3.27 (−7.3%); revenue $5.55bn vs $5.58bn; WSJ reports 300 million premium subscribers and a 14% y/y revenue increase. (Non-S&P 500.) Other non-members: Certara −21.52%; ClearPoint Neuro −16.65%; BellRing −16.60% on $0.30 vs $0.37; Powell Industries −14.05%; AdaptHealth −13.20%; Bruker printed −$0.49 vs $0.38; Energizer printed $0.75 vs $0.86. |
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Corporate actions, M&A and the analyst tape | M&A: Prologis/Segro final terms agreed at ~£14bn ($18.8bn) — 0.0920 PLD shares per Segro share plus up to £3.5bn cash, 1,031.7p per share, Segro holders ~8.9% of the combined group; PLD is −2.98% on the equity offering. Prysmian to acquire Atkore at $95.00. | | Capital returns and supply: Toyota ¥1tn ($6.3bn) buyback; HSBC a fresh buyback plus a raised cost-cutting target; Bezos Form 144 for ~$4.07bn of AMZN; Prologis equity offering. | | Analyst actions: no new large-cap U.S. rating changes were independently verified for August 4 at the time of the pull. Monday's calls still driving prices: Corning to Buy at Truist, target $175; Eaton to Outperform at Evercore ISI, $502; Ingersoll Rand to Buy at Stifel, $101; LyondellBasell to Overweight at JPMorgan, $80; CoreWeave to Buy at Truist; eBay to Underweight at Wells Fargo; NXP to Neutral at UBS, $270. AMD carries 28 Buys against 8 Holds with a mean target of $570.69, 22.9% above Monday's close, into tonight's print. |
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5 · Overnight Earnings Scorecard |
| Actual versus consensus from the Earnings Whispers 8/4 before-open day page (Whisper estimate against the reported column), pulled ~7:20 AM ET. Bold = S&P 500 member. |
| Reported before the open, Tuesday 8/4 |
| Name | EPS act / est | Revenue act / est | Surprise | Pre-mkt | Read-through | | Caterpillar (CAT) | $8.17 / $6.25 | $20.54bn / $19.31bn | +30.7% | +10.35% | Reads to DE, TEX, URI, PCAR | | Marathon Petroleum (MPC) | $17.73 / $14.52 | $52.34bn / $34.83bn | +22.1% | — | Rear-view print into a compressing crack. Reads to VLO, PSX | | Zebra (ZBRA) | $6.35 / $4.48 | $1.56bn / $1.50bn | +41.7% | +8.35% | Enterprise hardware capex is not slowing | | Pfizer (PFE) | $0.77 / $0.68 | $15.03bn / $14.45bn | +13.2% | — | FY26 revenue midpoint raised. A rare clean pharma beat | | Merck (MRK) | −$0.13 / −$0.26 | $16.61bn / $16.33bn | +50.0% | — | Revenue outlook up, profit guidance cut on deal charges | | McDonald's (MCD) | $3.38 / $3.32 | $7.10bn / $7.14bn | +1.8% | — | New U.S. president named. Reads to YUM, QSR | | Aptiv (APTV) | $1.63 / $1.42 | $3.27bn / $3.32bn | +14.8% | −7.86% | Growth −37.1%. Reads to BWA, LEA, MGA | | DuPont (DD) | $1.88 / $1.76 | $1.82bn / $1.82bn | +6.8% | −4.28% | Growth −44.2%. Negative for chemicals | | Kimberly-Clark (KMB) | $1.80 / $2.00 | $4.19bn / $4.23bn | −10.0% | — | Miss on both lines. Reads to PG, CHD, CL | | Apollo Global (APO) | $2.11 / $2.17 | $11.15bn / $1.31bn | −2.8% | — | Reads to KKR, BX, ARES | | Ball (BALL) | $1.03 / $0.99 | $4.00bn / $3.67bn | +4.0% | — | Volumes better than feared | | AMETEK (AME) | $2.09 / $1.99 | $2.04bn / $1.96bn | +5.0% | — | Confirms the CAT signal | | Broadridge (BR) | $3.82 / $3.75 | $2.22bn / $2.17bn | +1.9% | — | — | | Cummins (CMI) | not yet published | cons $7.33 / $9.33bn | — | −7.69% | Down 7.7% while CAT is up 10.4% — a powertrain-versus-machines split | | FIS | not yet published | cons $1.47 / $3.38bn | — | −10.67% | The largest S&P decline of the morning. Reads to GPN (Wednesday) and payments | | Spotify (SPOT) | $3.03 / $3.27 | $5.55bn / $5.58bn | −7.3% | fell | 300m premium subs; revenue +14% y/y. Miss on profitability | | BP | $2.22 / $1.98 | $70.11bn / $67.71bn | beat | rose | Selling the Archaea biogas unit | | HSBC | $2.25 / $2.24 | $34.23bn / $18.73bn | +0.4% | rose | Buyback; cost-cutting target raised | | Toyota (TM) | $7.57 | $84.87bn | — | rose | ¥1tn buyback; outlook lifted | | Wix (WIX) | $1.39 / $1.20 | $563.06m / $554.41m | +15.8% | +14.36% | — | | DigitalOcean (DOCN) | $0.45 / $0.26 | $281.18m / $276.15m | +73.1% | — | AI-adjacent cloud demand | | BellRing (BRBR) | $0.30 / $0.37 | — | −18.9% | −16.60% | — | | Bruker (BRKR) | −$0.49 / $0.38 | — | −228.9% | — | Life-science tools still weak | | Energizer (ENR) | $0.75 / $0.86 | $734.10m / $737.31m | −12.8% | — | — | | Timken (TKR) | $1.83 / $1.63 | $1.26bn / $1.23bn | +12.3% | — | — | | Atkore (ATKR) | $1.74 / $1.64 | $794.80m | +6.1% | higher | Prysmian bid, $95.00/share |
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| Reported at 7:30 AM with actuals not yet on the day page: Cummins (CMI) — consensus $7.33 on $9.33bn, trading −7.69%; FIS — consensus $1.47 on $3.38bn, trading −10.67%. Still to report: TransDigm 7:15 — $10.26 on $2.67bn; Sysco 8:00 — $1.51 on $21.92bn; Expeditors 8:30 — $1.67 on $2.90bn. |
| Reported after the close, Monday 8/3 |
| Palantir (PLTR) — revenue $1.935bn, +93% y/y, vs $1.81bn; adjusted EPS $0.41 vs $0.33–0.34; U.S. revenue +115% to $1.57bn; U.S. commercial +149% to $764m; government +90% to $809m; adjusted FCF $1.22bn; FY26 guidance raised ~$498m to a $8.154bn midpoint (+82%), U.S. commercial >$3.42bn, adjusted operating income $4.89–4.90bn, adjusted FCF $4.5–4.7bn. Pre-market +14.99%. Read-through: the purest evidence that enterprise AI is converting to revenue — SNOW, DDOG, MDB and the AI-software-monetisation leg. | | ON Semiconductor (ON) — revenue $1.60bn vs $1.589bn; adjusted EPS $0.74 vs $0.71; Q3 guide $1.65–1.75bn revenue, 40–42% gross margin, $0.81–0.93 EPS; AI data-centre revenue to more than double in 2026; free-cash-flow margin from ~7% to 27% y/y. Pre-market +6.97%. This is the catalyst behind the whole optical/AI-hardware bid this morning — AAOI, COHR, GLW, WDC, MU. | | Vertex (VRTX), Diamondback (FANG), SBA Communications (SBAC), Clorox (CLX), Alexandria (ARE), ONEOK (OKE) and Williams (WMB) also reported after Monday's close. Their reactions could not be independently verified this session and are listed without figures rather than estimated. |
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| Aggregate scorecard. Bloomberg Intelligence puts the S&P 500 beat rate at 86%, the highest in five years, with blended year-on-year EPS growth running +29%. That is corroborated by BofA Securities' 77% Q2 EPS beat rate — the highest since 2021 — cited Monday. How the tape is paying for it is what has changed: Caterpillar beat by 30.7% and is +10.4%, but Aptiv beat by 14.8% and is −7.9% and DuPont beat by 6.8% and is −4.3%. With 86% of the index beating, a beat is no longer a differentiator — the market is paying for revenue growth and forward guidance and charging for cost-controlled beats on shrinking top lines. |
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6 · U.S. Treasury Par Curve & Rates |
| Official par curve — Treasury.gov, 3:30 PM ET, Monday August 3 (the anchor) |
| Tenor | 8/3 close | 7/31 close | Δ 1-day | 7/27 close | Δ 1-week | | 1 Mo | 3.79% | 3.78% | +1 bp | 3.80% | −1 bp | | 1.5 Mo | 3.82% | 3.80% | +2 bp | 3.89% | −7 bp | | 2 Mo | 3.87% | 3.85% | +2 bp | 3.95% | −8 bp | | 3 Mo | 3.91% | 3.83% | +8 bp | 3.96% | −5 bp | | 4 Mo | 3.94% | 3.92% | +2 bp | 4.05% | −11 bp | | 6 Mo | 4.02% | 3.98% | +4 bp | 4.10% | −8 bp | | 1 Yr | 4.07% | 4.08% | −1 bp | 4.14% | −7 bp | | 2 Yr | 4.25% | 4.28% | −3 bp | 4.31% | −6 bp | | 3 Yr | 4.32% | 4.34% | −2 bp | 4.35% | −3 bp | | 5 Yr | 4.40% | 4.45% | −5 bp | 4.40% | 0 bp | | 7 Yr | 4.54% | 4.59% | −5 bp | 4.52% | +2 bp | | 10 Yr | 4.70% | 4.75% | −5 bp | 4.65% | +5 bp | | 20 Yr | 5.23% | 5.28% | −5 bp | 5.15% | +8 bp | | 30 Yr | 5.23% | 5.27% | −4 bp | 5.12% | +11 bp |
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| Live pre-open block — CNBC real-time, ~7:45 AM ET |
| Tenor | Live yield | vs official 3:30 PM par close | | 3 Mo | 3.833% | −7.7 bp (basis differs — see note) | | 1 Yr | 4.047% | −2.3 bp | | 2 Yr | 4.233% | −1.7 bp | | 3 Yr | 4.291% | −2.9 bp | | 5 Yr | 4.380% | −2.0 bp | | 7 Yr | 4.520% | −2.0 bp | | 10 Yr | 4.669% | −3.1 bp | | 20 Yr | 5.227% | −0.3 bp | | 30 Yr | 5.222% | −0.8 bp |
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| Curve spreads. On the live basis: 2s10s +43.6 bp, 2s30s +98.9 bp, 3M10Y +83.6 bp. On the official par basis at Monday's close: 2s10s +45 bp (−2 d/d, +11 w/w), 2s30s +98 bp (−1 d/d, +17 w/w), 3M10Y +79 bp (−13 d/d, +10 w/w). The overnight change in 2s10s is −1.4 bp and in 2s30s +0.9 bp — the level fell, the shape barely moved. |
| The read: a small, belly-led bull-flattening that arrived with the crude reversal, and the diagnostic matters more than the size. Between 7:15 and 7:45 the curve rallied across the board as WTI round-tripped from +0.88% to −0.71%: 10Y −3.1 bp to 4.669%, 5Y and 7Y −2.0, 3Y −2.9, 2Y −1.7, 30Y only −0.8 — maximum move in the belly, minimum at the long end. That is inflation compensation coming out, not a growth scare and not a term-premium event: a term-premium move would have led with the 30-year, and a growth scare would have led with the 2-year; neither did. There is a modest imported component — the Bund rallied 2.5 bp to 3.126% and the 10-year Gilt 1.0 bp to 4.945% — but the Bund outperformed the Treasury only marginally, so most of this is domestic and oil-linked. It is not supply-driven (today's only issuance is a 52-week bill at 11:30 AM ET) and it is not data-driven (nothing has printed). The rates market is waiting on JOLTS at 10:00, ADP and ISM Services on Wednesday, and payrolls on Friday. One sentence of Fed-path context, because it explains the shape and nothing more: the July FOMC held with three officials dissenting in favour of an increase, and Richmond's Tom Barkin told WSJ it is a “close call” whether rates are high enough and that he does not know whether he would have joined them — which is why a 3 bp rally in the 10-year bought the 2-year only 1.7 bp. Separately, WSJ reports Warsh has floated cutting the number of FOMC meetings below eight a year, a term-premium question rather than a near-term path question. |
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| The 3-month basis note. CNBC's live 3-month prints 3.833% against Treasury's official par 3.91% — a 7.7 bp gap. This is a discount-versus-coupon-equivalent basis artefact, not a move: Monday's genuine +8 bp bill cheapening on the official series is unchanged and remains a financing signal, not a policy one. Do not compute 3M10Y across the two bases. |
| Today's supply and Fed operations. 11:30 AM ET — 52-week bill auction (prior 3.860%). No coupon auction and no FOMC-principal speech is scheduled. The Minneapolis Fed hosts a virtual “Conversations with the Fed” session at 12:00–12:45 PM ET; Governor Lisa Cook speaks on the economic outlook in Anchorage on Wednesday 8/5. 11:30 AM ET — Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q3 (prior 6.2%), which on a nowcast that high is itself a mid-session headline risk for the long end. |
7 · U.S. Macroeconomic Calendar |
| ★ TODAY — Tuesday, August 4 — all times ET |
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| Time | Release | Consensus | Prior | Sensitivity | What a beat/miss does | | 8:30 AM | Trade Balance (June) | −$73.00bn | −$77.60bn | Low–medium | The only pre-open release — the gap risk this morning is unusually small. A narrower deficit is additive to Q3 GDP; the tariff pass-through in the goods breakdown matters more than the headline | | 8:55 AM | Redbook chain-store sales (y/y) | — | +8.3% | Low | A weekly consumer read that occasionally moves discretionary names on a big miss | | 10:00 AM | JOLTS Job Openings (June) | 7.440M | 7.594M | High | The morning's real air pocket. Above ~7.7M rebuilds the September hike and hits the front end and small caps; below ~7.2M is the week's first labour crack and steepens the curve | | 10:00 AM | Factory Orders (June) | +0.2% m/m | −1.3% | Low–medium | The hard-data check on Monday's 55.6 ISM. A negative print against a four-year-high survey sells industrials into the CAT strength | | 10:00 AM | Durable Goods ex-defense, final (June) | +0.3% | +0.3% | Low | Ex-transport prior +1.9%; core capex orders are the line to read | | 10:00 AM | IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Aug) | 47.5 | 45.5 | Low | Still below 50 | | 11:30 AM | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) | — | 6.2% | Medium | A 6.2% nowcast is extraordinary; a revision higher is a long-end negative on a curve already 11 bp steeper on the week | | 11:30 AM | 52-week bill auction | — | 3.860% | Low | Bill supply into a front end that cheapened 8 bp on Monday | | 12:00 PM | Minneapolis Fed, virtual event | — | — | Low | No FOMC-principal speech is scheduled today | | 4:15 PM | AMD earnings | $1.61 EPS on $11.32bn | — | Very high | Sets Wednesday's semiconductor tape. Options imply ±8.5% | | ~4:30 PM | SpaceX first public earnings | ~$6.72–6.9bn revenue | — | High | EPS estimates span −$1.26 to +$0.33. The lock-up is the story, not the quarter |
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| Rest of this week |
| Date / Time | Release | Sensitivity | | Wed 8/5, 8:15 | ADP National Employment (July) | Medium–high | | Wed 8/5, 9:00 | NY Fed Labor Market Tightness Index | Medium | | Wed 8/5, 10:00 | ISM Services PMI (July), incl. prices paid | Very high | | Wed 8/5 | Governor Lisa Cook, economic outlook, Anchorage | Medium | | Thu 8/6, 8:30 | Initial Claims | Medium | | Thu 8/6, 8:30 | Productivity & Costs, preliminary (Q2) | High | | Thu 8/6, 10:00 | Wholesale Trade; NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index | Low | | Fri 8/7, 8:30 | Employment Situation (July) | Very high | | Fri 8/7, 11:00 | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations | Medium |
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| ISM Services prices paid on Wednesday is the highest-convexity print of the week after payrolls — manufacturing prices paid fell 1.9 to 71.1 on the oil channel and services is where that confirms or breaks. Friday's payroll is the week's event; no verified consensus was obtained, and ISM employment at 52.8 — the first expansion in 33 months — skews the risk to the upside. Thursday's unit labour costs are the sequel to the +0.9% Q2 ECI. Cook is the week's only scheduled FOMC-principal speech. |
| Next week (Aug 10–14) — the inflation week |
| Date / Time | Release | Sensitivity | | Tue 8/11, 10:00 | NAR Existing Home Sales | Low–medium | | Tue 8/11, 11:00 | NY Fed Household Debt & Credit (Q2) | Medium | | Wed 8/12, 8:30 | Consumer Price Index (July) | Very high | | Thu 8/13, 8:30 | Initial Claims | Medium | | Thu 8/13, 8:30 | Producer Price Index (July) | High | | Fri 8/14, 8:30 | Advance Retail Sales (July) | High | | Fri 8/14, 10:00 | Business Inventories; Michigan (preliminary) | Medium–high |
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| CPI on 12 August is the single most important print of the next ten sessions — the first to carry a full month of the crude spike; PPI energy on the 13th carries the war premium CPI only partly captures; retail sales on the 14th is the first consumer read since gasoline peaked. Michigan 1-year expectations printed 4.2% in the July final. A 4.69% 10-year is still binding on existing home sales. |
| Look-ahead framing. Today is the quiet day, and the calendar is front-loading all of its risk into the back half of the week. The only pre-open release is a June trade balance, which means the 9:30 open will be traded entirely on earnings and positioning, with no macro cover in either direction — which is why the dispersion argument in section 2 matters so much this morning. From 10:00 the sequence tightens: JOLTS today, ADP and ISM Services tomorrow, productivity Thursday, payrolls Friday, CPI a week Wednesday. The asymmetry set out on Monday is unchanged and one session closer to resolution — if Wednesday's ISM Services prices-paid index falls alongside manufacturing's, July's inflation scare was an oil event and the long-end selloff is retraceable; if it rises anyway, the impulse is in wages and shelter and the 30-year goes back through 5.30% regardless of what crude does. Friday's payroll sits between them with the risk skewed to a strong print. |
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9 · FX Market |
| Bloomberg Generic Composite (BGN) marks, 7:03–7:04 AM ET, against the prior U.S.-evening levels. Quote basis: all pairs are spot; a positive change on USD/XXX means the dollar strengthened. |
| Pair | Level | vs prior 4:00 PM ET | Overnight range / note | Driver | | DXY | 99.91 | −0.05% | 99.89–100.06 | A fourth consecutive session pinned at 100. The dollar could not rally on a record Dow, a four-year-high ISM, or a 30 bp EPS surprise from its largest industrial | | EUR/USD | 1.1520 | +0.13% | Prior 1.15078 | Firmer as Bunds rallied 2.5 bp | | USD/JPY | 157.59 | +0.27% | EUR/JPY 181.72, +0.45% | The yen is the worst major overnight. Three sessions after a coordinated intervention; the JGB auction tailed and the monetary base contracted faster than expected | | GBP/USD | 1.3450 | +0.19% | Prior 1.34290 | Firm despite Gilt underperformance — the auction cheapened the curve, not the currency | | USD/CHF | 0.8090 | −0.17% | Prior 0.81035 | The haven cross did not bid on the Iran denial. A crude rebound with a flat franc is a market not buying the re-escalation | | AUD/USD | 0.7031 | +0.44% | The best-performing major | Copper at a two-month high near $14,000/t; ASX 200 +1.40%. The purest liquid expression of the industrial-metals bid | | USD/CAD | 1.4046 | 0.00% | Prior 1.40464 | The loonie did not rally on crude +0.88% — the correlation that worked Monday failed overnight | | USD/KRW | 1,430.58 | +0.11% | Prior 1,429.24 | The won weakened as the Kospi rose 1.62% — the third consecutive session it has moved against its own equity market |
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| Take — a flat dollar, a weak yen, and one commodity currency doing all the work. The DXY at 99.91 has now traded within a rounding error of 100 for four sessions, through a record Dow, a 55.6 ISM, a 30.7% Caterpillar surprise and an 86% index-wide beat rate. A currency that cannot rally on that combination is not trading growth differentials. What it is trading is visible in the only two crosses that moved: AUD/USD +0.44% on copper, and USD/JPY +0.27% on the failure of intervention — neither of which has anything to do with the United States. The yen is the live policy trade and Washington has just escalated it in a way the market has not priced. WSJ's Nick Timiraos reports that Treasury Secretary Bessent is leaning on the Fed to raise the $60bn borrowing limit on an obscure lending facility to support the currency — a materially different instrument from a one-off joint operation, and a materially different constitutional question. WSJ's Aaron Back takes the other side: “Only the Bank of Japan Can Arrest the Yen's Decline”; Bloomberg's Skylar Montgomery Koning calls the intervention “more symbolic than decisive.” An intervention floor without a policy change is a free option to sell, and USD/JPY at 157.59 is 0.41 from the 158.00 level that would make the failure public. In equity terms: a flat dollar is neutral for the S&P's ~40% foreign-revenue cohort, so there is no FX push either way at the open; the weak yen helps Japanese exporters (Toyota said so explicitly) and hurts U.S. industrials and autos competing with them; AUD strength confirms the copper bid is physical rather than a futures artefact; and the won's third consecutive inverse move keeps the Korea-fade/Taiwan-own pair intact. |
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10 · Commodities |
| Front-month futures on one consistent basis unless stated, Bloomberg boards 6:49–7:02 AM ET. Contract months explicit. Percentage changes are versus the prior settlement. |
| Contract | Price | Chg | %Chg | YTD | Driver | | WTI crude (Sep, Nymex) | $79.77/bbl | −$0.57 | −0.71% | ~+38% | Round-tripped: +0.88% at 6:50 on the Iran denial, negative by 7:30 on no new headline | | Brent crude (Oct, ICE) | $83.55/bbl | −$0.22 | −0.26% | ~+37% | Was +2.4% near $86 at 6:13 AM. The whole bounce is gone | | Heating oil (Sep) | 382.81 c/gal | −4.91 | −1.27% | +81% area | Fell harder than crude — the distillate crack is $1.10/bbl narrower at ~$81.01 | | RBOB gasoline (Sep) | 291.89 c/gal | −4.78 | −1.58% | +71% area | Gasoline crack narrowed ~$1.50/bbl to ~$42.72 | | Natural gas (Sep) | $2.730/MMBtu | −$0.051 | −1.76% | ~−25% | No war premium to lose; U.S. storage comfortable | | Gold (spot) | $4,060.13/oz | +$8.38 | +0.21% | ~−6% | Comex Dec futures $4,116.50, +0.64% — a carry basis, not a level dispute | | Silver (Sep, Comex) | $59.29/oz | +$1.22 | +2.47% | ~−18% | Outran gold by two points — an industrial bid, not a monetary one | | Copper (Sep, Comex) | 664.90 c/lb | +10.85 | +1.66% | ~+15% | Two-month high; LME near $14,000/t on U.S. warehouse builds ahead of an expected import-tariff decision | | Platinum (spot) | $1,712.30/oz | +$79.87 | +4.89% | — | By far the largest move on the board | | Corn (Dec, CBOT) | 471.25 c/bu | +1.25 | +0.26% | — | — | | Wheat (Sep, CBOT) | 649.25 c/bu | ±1.75 | ±0.27% | — | Sign not derivable; see Data Notes |
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| Basis caveats. Bloomberg's page text strips minus signs from the FX and commodities tables — a documented trap in this workflow. Every sign above was derived from the level against Monday's settle or taken from CNBC's signed board. Contract months: September WTI, October Brent, September heating oil / RBOB / natural gas / silver / copper, December gold and corn. The gold line carries a real $56 (1.4%) spot-versus-futures carry gap, not a level dispute. |
| Take — crude refused to pay for the war, and the crack is still the trade. The overnight sequence is the whole story: Iran publicly denied that any U.S. Hormuz talks exist, Trump called Tehran “unbelievably duplicitous”, crude rallied — WTI +0.88% and Brent +1.07% at 6:50 — and by 7:30 the entire bounce was gone, WTI −0.71% at $79.77 and Brent −0.26% at $83.55. A $4.32 down-day followed by a bounce the tape would not hold is a market that will not pay for the peace or the war. Products fell harder than the barrel: heating oil −1.27% and RBOB −1.58%. Heating oil at 382.81 c/gal is $160.78/bbl; less WTI at $79.77 gives a distillate crack of $81.01 against $82.11 at Monday's settle — $1.10/bbl gone, with the gasoline crack $1.40 narrower at $42.82, a second consecutive session of compression. Marathon Petroleum printed the season's best refining quarter into a margin that is compressing in real time. The physical case survives; the convexity case does not, because the convexity was a war-supply-disruption option and it has now been repriced twice. Take the crack convexity off, keep the physical-tightness leg, and let PSX on Wednesday adjudicate. The physical thresholds are unchanged (Commonwealth Bank: Hormuz transit at 30–35% of pre-war levels, 50–60% needed to reassert oversupply), and Saudi Aramco confirmed this morning that it is routing exports around the strait entirely — a durable adaptation that is quietly bearish the tail. The metals are the cleanest directional story and they are industrial, not monetary: platinum +4.89%, silver +2.47%, copper +1.66% to a two-month high, gold spot only +0.21%. A complex where platinum outruns gold by nearly five points is trading an expected U.S. copper import tariff and the Comex squeeze the anticipation has created, not debasement. Read-through: constructive for FCX and the copper miners, the wire-and-cable complex (Atkore, being taken out by Prysmian at $95.00) and the electrification names; the airline read has flipped positive on the crude reversal, though Lufthansa's jet-fuel warning is a reminder of how fast that flips back. |
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12 · Trading Views (desk-style; not personalized investment advice) |
| Each idea states the expression, the catalyst with the time it lands, the invalidation level, and a sizing note. Claude is not a licensed financial advisor; suitability and sizing are the reader's own. |
| 1. Fade the index gap, own the dispersion — the trade of the open. Expression: short S&P futures or SPY against long a basket of the morning's earnings winners (CAT, ZBRA, ON, IT), roughly dollar-neutral, put on in the first fifteen minutes rather than at 9:30. Why: S&P futures +0.25% sit below both Dow futures at +0.84% and Nasdaq-100 futures at +0.96%, and the split has widened since 6:54. The index residual is where FIS −10.67%, APTV −7.86%, CMI −7.69%, ROK −5.19% and DD −4.28% live. A gap owned by four tickers is a gap that fills. Catalyst: 10:00 AM JOLTS, the only scheduled event that can broaden the tape. Invalidation: SPY converging up toward QQQ by 10:00, or IWM above +0.8%. Sizing: dollar-neutral, moderate gross — a first-hour trade, not a position. | | 2. Buy the AMD straddle rather than picking a side. Expression: long the at-the-money straddle into the 4:15 PM print. Why: options imply ±8.5% ($440.39–$522.67; TipRanks cites 12.28%), and the stock is already +4.82% at $508.01 pre-print — the market is paying for the move before the move. ON Semiconductor has just guided AI data-centre revenue to more than double in 2026 and the whole complex re-rated on it, so the sector thesis is already in the price and AMD's number must clear a raised bar — against a name that has closed lower the day after each of its last four reports despite beating EPS in 10 of 12 quarters. Catalyst: 4:15 PM ET. Invalidation: implied volatility bid above ~11% intraday. Sizing: premium-defined; the whole cost is the risk. | | 3. Stay in the 5s30s steepener. Nothing overnight touched it. Expression: 5s30s steepener in cash or futures. Why: the coupon curve rallied only one to three basis points overnight (2Y −1.7, 5Y −2.0, 10Y −3.1, 30Y −0.8) while the week is still emphatically a bear-steepener — front end 6 to 11 bp lower, 10Y +5, 20Y +8, 30Y +11, 2s30s +17 bp week on week. the Bund rallied 2.5 bp with the Treasury, so this is oil, not an imported bid, and the term-premium question behind Warsh's meeting-count proposal and Barkin's “close call” is a long-end story. Catalyst: JOLTS 10:00, ISM Services Wednesday, payrolls Friday, CPI 8/12. Invalidation: two consecutive soft inflation prints, flattening 5s30s back through +70 bp; or a 30-year auction that stops through. Sizing: DV01-neutral, core. | | 4. Sell the refiners against the E&Ps — the crack compressed overnight and the season's best print is already behind it. Expression: short MPC and VLO against long DVN and EOG, beta-weighted. Why: crude −0.71% and heating oil −1.27%; the distillate crack has narrowed $1.10/bbl to $81.01 and the gasoline crack $1.40. MPC printed $17.73 against $14.52 on $52.34bn against $34.83bn — a rear-view mirror on a margin compressing in front of it. The E&Ps get the crude bid without the squeeze. Catalyst: PSX Wednesday 7:00 AM; Devon tonight. Invalidation: a verified Hormuz re-escalation. Sizing: small — a two-week trade on a geopolitical coin flip. | | 5. Own copper through the miners' calls, not the stock, into an unscheduled binary. Expression: FCX or COPX call spreads, one to two months out. Why: Comex September copper +1.66% and a two-month high with LME near $14,000/t, confirmed by platinum +4.89%, silver +2.47% and AUD/USD +0.44%. The driver is an expected Trump copper import tariff into ballooning U.S. warehouse inventories — binary, unscheduled, impossible to size in cash. Invalidation: a decision not to impose it. Sizing: premium-defined only. Do not own this in stock. | | 6. Keep fading Korean beta against Taiwan — the currency has confirmed on three consecutive legs. Expression: short Kospi/EWY against long Taiex/EWT or TSM, FX-hedged. Why: Friday: Kospi +17.9%, won −1.35%. Monday: Kospi −5.12%, won +0.95%. Overnight: Kospi +1.62%, won −0.11%. A market whose currency moves against its own index in both directions is levered domestically, not bought internationally; Taiwan is the control and was flat at −0.06%. Catalyst: AMD tonight, WDC and SanDisk Wednesday. Invalidation: USD/KRW below 1,420 on a rising Kospi. Sizing: moderate; Korea's downside CPI surprise gives the Bank of Korea room and is a headwind to the short leg. |
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| Volatility note. VIX 15.61, −0.25 (−1.58%) at 7:34 AM ET against a 15.86 prior close, with VXN unchanged at 24.77. At 15.61, one-month implied volatility prices a daily S&P move of 15.61 ÷ √252 = 0.98%, i.e. roughly ±75 index points around 7,600.49, or a 7,525–7,675 band. That is neither obviously cheap nor obviously dear — but it is the wrong shape for this tape. What the VIX prices is an orderly index. What is happening is an twenty-one-point spread between the best and worst large-cap moves inside a single pre-market session — CAT +10.4% and ZBRA +8.4% against FIS −10.7% and CMI −7.7% — with the index itself going up 0.35%. Index volatility is the wrong instrument to own; single-name and dispersion volatility is the right one, and AMD's ±8.5% straddle tonight is the liquid expression. Key levels. Prior close 7,600.49; implied open ≈7,627.25; the 52-week closing high is 7,620.90, which the implied open is already through — so the first thing this market must do at 9:30 is decide whether it can hold a new all-time closing high, with no macro cover before 10:00. Downside: 7,560 is Monday's overnight futures low area and 7,504.78 Monday's cash low. VIX 15.54 was Monday's low; a break below 15.50 on a narrow tape would be the vol market underwriting a rally that breadth is not. Nasdaq-100 29,000 is both the implied open and a round number. 0DTE and dealer-gamma positioning could not be sourced this session and is not estimated. |
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13 · S&P 500 Earnings Calendar |
| ★ TODAY — Tuesday, August 4 |
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| BMO — already reported (actual vs Whisper consensus; pre-market reaction where quoted). Caterpillar (CAT) 6:30 — $8.17 vs $6.25, revenue $20.54bn vs $19.31bn — +10.35%; Merck (MRK) 6:30 — −$0.13 vs −$0.26, revenue $16.61bn vs $16.33bn, revenue outlook raised, profit guidance cut on deal charges; Kimberly-Clark (KMB) 6:30 — $1.80 vs $2.00, revenue $4.19bn vs $4.23bn — a miss on both lines; Zebra (ZBRA) 6:30 — $6.35 vs $4.48 — +8.35%; Apollo Global (APO) 6:30 — $2.11 vs $2.17; Pfizer (PFE) 6:45 — $0.77 vs $0.68, revenue $15.03bn vs $14.45bn, FY26 revenue midpoint raised; Aptiv (APTV) 6:45 — $1.63 vs $1.42 on revenue of $3.27bn vs $3.32bn — −7.86%; Marathon Petroleum (MPC) 6:45 — $17.73 vs $14.52, revenue $52.34bn vs $34.83bn; DuPont (DD) 6:00 — $1.88 vs $1.76 — −4.28%; Ball (BALL) 6:00 — $1.03 vs $0.99; AMETEK (AME) 6:55 — $2.09 vs $1.99; Broadridge (BR) 7:00 — $3.82 vs $3.75; McDonald's (MCD) 7:00 — $3.38 vs $3.32 on revenue of $7.10bn vs $7.14bn, new U.S. president named; Gartner (IT) 6:00 — +5.59%, call 8:00 AM; Rockwell Automation (ROK) 7:00 — −5.19%; Revvity (RVTY) 6:00 — −2.75%; Pinnacle West (PNW) 8:35 — −2.74%. |
| BMO — still to report (consensus). Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) 6:00; Henry Schein (HSIC) 6:00; Leidos (LDOS) 6:00 — $2.90; Waters (WAT) 6:00; IDEXX (IDXX) 6:30; Kimco (KIM) 6:50; Duke Energy (DUK) 7:00; NRG Energy (NRG) 7:00; TransDigm (TDG) 7:15 — $10.26 on $2.67bn; Cummins (CMI) 7:30 — −7.69%; FIS 7:30 — −10.67%; PSEG (PEG) 7:30; Sysco (SYY) 8:00 — $1.51 on $21.92bn; W.W. Grainger (GWW) 8:00; Progressive (PGR) 8:15; Expeditors (EXPD) 8:30 — $1.67 on $2.90bn. |
| AMC — tonight. Amgen (AMGN) 4:00; Booking Holdings (BKNG) 4:00; Gilead (GILD) 4:00; Wynn Resorts (WYNN) 4:00; Arista Networks (ANET) 4:05; DaVita (DVA) 4:05; Devon Energy (DVN) 4:05; Emerson Electric (EMR) 4:05; Jacobs (J) 4:10; Match Group (MTCH) 4:10; AMD 4:15 — consensus $1.61 EPS on $11.32bn revenue against the company's own $11.2bn ±$300m guide; options imply ±8.5% (range $440.39–$522.67); the week's most important semiconductor print; Celanese (CE) 4:15; Healthpeak (DOC) 4:15; IFF 4:15; Mosaic (MOS) 4:15; Prudential Financial (PRU) 4:20; Assurant (AIZ) — After Close. Also tonight, excluded from the S&P list on conservative membership grounds: SpaceX (SPCX) ~4:30 — the first quarterly report as a public company; consensus revenue ~$6.72–6.9bn with EPS estimates spanning −$1.26 to +$0.33; as much as $116bn of stock becomes eligible for sale next month. |
| Current week — August 3–7 |
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| Mon 8/3 — completed. BMO: Loews (L) 6:00 — +0.21%; Marriott (MAR) 7:00 — −7.05% on a $7.07bn revenue miss and a soft Q3 guide; Tyson (TSN) 7:30 — +2.85% despite a $0.99 vs $1.01 EPS miss. AMC: SBA Communications (SBAC) 4:00; Vertex (VRTX) 4:00; Diamondback (FANG) 4:00; Palantir (PLTR) 4:05 — revenue $1.935bn +93% vs $1.81bn; EPS $0.41 vs $0.34; FY26 raised to a $8.154bn midpoint — +14.99% pre-market; ON Semiconductor (ON) 4:05 — revenue $1.60bn vs $1.589bn; EPS $0.74 vs $0.71; AI data-centre revenue to more than double in 2026 — +6.97% pre-market; Alexandria (ARE) 4:10; Clorox (CLX) 4:10; ONEOK (OKE) 4:15; Williams (WMB) 4:15. |
| Tue 8/4 — see the gold TODAY band above. |
| Wed 8/5. BMO: EOG Resources (EOG) 1:25 AM; Cencora (COR) 6:30; CVS Health (CVS) 6:30; NiSource (NI) 6:30; Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) 6:30; Iron Mountain (IRM) 6:45; Eli Lilly (LLY) 6:45; Global Payments (GPN) 6:55; Uber (UBER) 6:55; CDW 7:00; Charles River (CRL) 7:00; Insulet (PODD) 7:00; Kraft Heinz (KHC) 7:00; Phillips 66 (PSX) 7:00 — now the crack-spread referendum after this morning's $1.93/bbl distillate compression; Walt Disney (DIS) — Before Open. Owens Corning (OC), BorgWarner (BWA) and United Therapeutics (UTHR) were on a prior verified pull for this date and did not appear in the most recent listing — confirm with company IR. |
| Wed 8/5 AMC — the densest block of the week at 26 S&P 500 names. Axon (AXON) 4:00; Expedia (EXPE) 4:00; MercadoLibre (MELI) 4:00; Western Digital (WDC) 4:00; AppLovin (APP) 4:05; Block (XYZ) 4:05; Corpay (CPAY) 4:05; DoorDash (DASH) 4:05; eBay (EBAY) 4:05; Paycom (PAYC) 4:05; Realty Income (O) 4:05; SanDisk (SNDK) 4:05; Solventum (SOLV) 4:05; McKesson (MCK) 4:10; Motorola Solutions (MSI) 4:10; Albemarle (ALB) 4:15; MetLife (MET) 4:15; News Corp B (NWS) 4:15; Occidental (OXY) 4:15; Texas Pacific Land (TPL) 4:15; News Corp A (NWSA) 4:25; CF Industries (CF) 4:30; Host Hotels (HST) 4:30; Steris (STE) 4:30; Atmos Energy (ATO) 4:35; Allstate (ALL) 5:10. WDC and SNDK together remain the memory-pricing referendum. |
| Thu 8/6. BMO: EPAM 6:00; Targa Resources (TRGP) 6:00; Becton Dickinson (BDX) 6:30; Kenvue (KVUE) 6:30; Molson Coors (TAP) 6:30; Teleflex (TFX) 6:30; Viatris (VTRS) 6:55; ConocoPhillips (COP) 7:00; Evergy (EVRG) 7:00; Howmet (HWM) 7:00; Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) 7:00; Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) 7:00; Zoetis (ZTS) 7:00; Constellation Energy (CEG) 7:05; Parker-Hannifin (PH) 7:30; Sempra (SRE) 7:55; APA 8:00; Fox B (FOX) 8:00; Ralph Lauren (RL) 8:00; Fox Corp (FOXA) — Before Open. Datadog (DDOG), Fiserv (FI) and Cheniere (LNG) were on a prior verified pull and did not appear — confirm with IR. AMC: Airbnb (ABNB) 4:00; Akamai (AKAM) 4:00; Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) 4:00; Aflac (AFL) 4:05; Gen Digital (GEN) 4:05; ResMed (RMD) 4:05; Monster Beverage (MNST) 4:10; Republic Services (RSG) 4:10; AIG 4:15; Microchip (MCHP) 4:15; Consolidated Edison (ED) 4:30. |
| Fri 8/7 — payrolls day. BMO: Vistra (VST) — Before Open; Take-Two (TTWO) 7:00; PPL 7:30. MarketAxess (MKTX) is treated as removed (absent for a third consecutive pull; an announced ICE acquisition target). AMC: the reviewed page lists no S&P 500 after-close reporters for 8/7 — unchanged for a fourth consecutive edition. |
| Next week — August 10–14: the season empties out |
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| Mon 8/10. BMO: no S&P 500 reporters. AMC: Simon Property (SPG) 4:05. Tue 8/11. BMO: Cardinal Health (CAH) 6:45. AMC: Super Micro (SMCI) 4:05. Wed 8/12 — CPI day (8:30). BMO: Amcor (AMCR) 6:00. AMC: Cisco (CSCO) 4:05. Thu 8/13 — PPI day (8:30). BMO: Tapestry (TPR) 6:45. AMC: Applied Materials (AMAT) 4:00. Fri 8/14. No S&P 500 reporters on either page. |
| Changes vs the prior calendar (8/3 Closing Daily). No additions or removals to the 8/4 before-open bucket — the day page re-pulled this session matches the 8/3 verified pull name for name and now carries actual results for 17 of them. The 8/4 after-close bucket was NOT re-pulled this session (the Earnings Whispers after-close view did not render) and is carried forward from the 8/3 verified pull, as are 8/5 through 8/14. The forward calendar still collapses next week: six S&P 500 reporters across ten day pages against roughly 150 this week, and only Cisco (8/12 AMC) and Applied Materials (8/13 AMC) move an index — both on inflation-print days. S&P 500 members only; GOOG/GOOGL deduped; conservative exclusions listed in the companion text file. |
14 · Risk Map — Today's Session |
| ★ TODAY — Event clock — Tuesday, August 4, all times ET |
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| Time | Event | | 7:00–9:00 AM | Remaining before-open reports: TDG 7:15, PEG 7:30, SYY 8:00, GWW 8:00, PGR 8:15, EXPD 8:30 | | 8:30 AM | Trade Balance (June), consensus −$73.00bn — the only pre-open macro release | | 8:55 AM | Redbook chain-store sales | | 9:30 AM | Cash open. Implied S&P ≈7,627.25 — already above the 7,620.90 52-week closing high | | 10:00 AM | JOLTS Job Openings (June), consensus 7.440M vs 7.594M prior — the morning's air pocket. Also Factory Orders, durables final, IBD/TIPP | | 11:30 AM | 52-week bill auction (prior 3.860%); Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 (prior 6.2%) | | 12:00–12:45 PM | Minneapolis Fed virtual event. No FOMC-principal speech today | | 4:00 PM | Cash close. After-close block begins: AMGN, BKNG, GILD, WYNN | | 4:15 PM | AMD — options imply ±8.5%. The week's most important semiconductor print | | ~4:30 PM | SpaceX first public earnings and call |
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| Crowded consensuses, each with the number that would break it |
| 1. “The de-escalation is real.” Monday's whole 1.48% index gain was built on it, and Iran's foreign ministry has publicly denied that any U.S. talks exist, with Trump calling Tehran “unbelievably duplicitous”. The number that breaks it: Brent through $86.50, which is $2.95 away after the bounce fully reversed. Reuters' report that the U.S. has used “virtually all” of its long-range precision missiles cuts both ways — it constrains escalation and it invites it. | | 2. “The earnings season is strong, therefore the tape is strong.” 86% beat rate, highest in five years; +29% blended EPS growth. But this morning Aptiv beat by 14.8% and is −9%, DuPont beat by 6.8% and is −3.2%, and the S&P's own futures are up less than half as much as the Dow's or the Nasdaq's. The number that breaks it: SPY still below QQQ and DIA at 11:00 AM with IWM negative. | | 3. “The de-grossing in tech is over.” JPMorgan said Monday there was “more limited room for further deleveraging.” Overnight, MSFT −1.95%, AMZN −2.37%, META −1.73% and GOOGL −1.16% gave back roughly half of Monday's gains while the beaten-up semis led instead. The number that breaks it: a second session of megacap give-back with the SOX green — rotation, not re-risking, which means Monday was a squeeze. | | 4. “The Fed is done hiking.” Three officials dissented in favour of an increase at the July meeting, Barkin says it is a “close call” whether rates are high enough, and the 2-year has not moved a basis point overnight. The number that breaks it: JOLTS above ~7.7M today, or payrolls above ~200k Friday, into an ISM employment index that just turned positive for the first time in 33 months. | | 5. “Volatility is telling you it is safe.” VIX 15.61 prices a 0.98% daily move, but the pre-market cross-section already spans +10.4% to −10.7% inside the S&P 500. The number that breaks it: a VIX that rises on an up day. |
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| The two-sided geopolitical tape. Toward de-escalation: Tehran still describes the Oman channel as productive; Trump's “last chance” framing is a deadline, which implies a deal is on offer; Saudi Aramco is routing exports around Hormuz entirely and reported a 33% profit rise — the physical market is structurally adapting. Toward re-escalation: Iran's explicit denial that U.S. talks exist; Trump's “unbelievably duplicitous”; the Reuters report on U.S. long-range precision-missile depletion, a capability constraint that changes the shape of any future strike; the unresolved nuclear question; and Trump's line that Exxon and Chevron are “making too much money based on a shortage”, a domestic policy tail the energy equity market has not priced. New this morning: the expected U.S. copper import tariff — unscheduled and binary. |
| Structural watch items. (i) The yen and the Bessent proposal — asking the Fed to expand an obscure $60bn facility to defend a foreign currency is a novel instrument with an independence question attached. (ii) Fed governance — Warsh floating fewer than eight FOMC meetings a year is a term-premium input no data print can settle. (iii) Credit — Bloomberg is running “Credit Braces for Fallen Angels as $100 Billion Trades Like Junk”. (iv) The SpaceX lock-up — up to $116bn of stock becomes saleable next month, with the shares ~15% below their 11 June debut. (v) European drought — WSJ reports rivers too low for shipping and power plants shutting. (vi) Apple's supply warning, unretracted. |
| What the VIX and today's implied move are — and are not — pricing. At 15.61, one-month implied volatility prices a ±0.98% day, roughly ±75 S&P points, or a 7,525–7,675 band. It is pricing: an orderly index, a thin macro calendar, and no accident before Friday. It is not pricing: a pre-market cross-section that already spans twenty-one percentage points from CAT to FIS; an index that must decide at 9:30 whether it can hold above its own 52-week closing high with no macro cover until 10:00; a JOLTS print into a labour market that just produced its first expansionary ISM employment reading in 33 months; AMD tonight with a ±8.5% straddle and a four-quarter record of falling the day after it beats; SpaceX's first public quarter with a consensus range spanning a loss of $1.26 to a profit of $0.33 per share and a $116bn unlock behind it; a Hormuz process that one of the two participants publicly denies is occurring; and a copper tariff decision that could land at any hour. The honest summary of this open is that the index is going up 0.35% on four tickers, the other four hundred and ninety-six are being repriced downward on good earnings and bad guidance, and the volatility market is charging you a penny for the privilege of not knowing which of those two is the real market. |
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| Section 15 (Source Links) and Section 16 (Data Notes & Conflicts) are provided in the companion file US_CrossAsset_Opening_2026-08-04_DataNotes.txt, alongside the full Markdown report of record. |
| U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Opening Daily — Tuesday, August 4, 2026. News window: Monday 4:00 PM ET to Tuesday ~8:20 AM ET. Prepared for institutional investors; not personalized investment advice and not a solicitation. Claude is not a licensed financial advisor. Figures are sourced and timestamped in the body; verify independently before acting. Sections 8 and 11 are retired; Source Links and Data Notes & Conflicts are in the companion text file. |