| Index | Close | Chg | %Chg | Note | | S&P 500 | 7,736.52 | +136.03 | +1.79% | Record close — first ever above 7,700. Range 7,629.10–7,758.21 | | Nasdaq Composite | 26,584.99 | +671.09 | +2.59% | Range 26,088.04–26,679.91. Four-session gain 8.8%, the best such run since April 2025 (WSJ) | | Nasdaq 100 | 29,733.16 | +956.36 | +3.32% | Range 29,109.26–29,831.40; 3.35% below the 30,762.20 record, from 6.45% below on Monday | | Dow Jones Industrials | 54,085.88 | +907.47 | +1.71% | Second straight record close; first ever above 54,000 (WSJ). Range 53,641.21–54,272.60 | | Russell 2000 | 3,036.33 | +54.42 | +1.83% | Small caps beat the S&P by only 4 bp — far narrower than Monday's 24 bp | | VIX | 16.50 | +0.64 | +4.04% | The index closed at a record high and VIX rose 4%. Range 15.51–16.65 | | PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) | 12,179.3 | +748.9 | +6.55% | The whole session. Range 11,834.8–12,258.1; chipmakers' best four-day rally since 2020 (Bloomberg) | | UST 10Y (official par) | 4.63% | -7 bp | — | Bloomberg 4 p.m. real-time mark 4.61, WSJ 5:04 p.m. 4.619 — reconciled in §6 | | UST 2Y (official par) | 4.20% | -5 bp | — | Front end rallied less than the belly | | UST 30Y (official par) | 5.18% | -5 bp | — | 20Y also 5.18% (-5 bp) | | UST 3M (official par) | 3.89% | -2 bp | — | Bills finally joined the coupon rally after Monday's 8 bp cheapening (§6) | | WTI front month (Sep) | $75.77 | -5.69% | — | CNBC settlement; Bloomberg $75.72 (-5.8%). Two-day drop now ~10.4% | | Brent front month (Oct) | $79.36 | -5.26% | — | CNBC settlement; below $80 for the first time since the Hormuz closure | | Gold (spot) | $4,076.26 | +0.52% | — | TradingEconomics spot; Bloomberg spot $4,079.82 (+0.6%). Futures boards $4,133–4,153 — basis in §11 | | DXY | 99.871 | -0.03% | — | TradingEconomics; a fourth straight close within a rounding error of 100 |
Note: the Chg and %Chg columns for the four Treasury rows are yield changes, coloured on the inverted convention (down = green). Sources: CNBC market live blog; Bloomberg Markets Wrap and the /markets quote board; WSJ Markets and WSJ Market Data Bonds & Rates; Investing.com index, Dow-component, S&P-500-component and trending boards (15:59:59 stamps); U.S. Treasury Text View; CME FedWatch and Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor; FRED and NY Fed (§9); TradingEconomics; Finviz Groups; NY Fed August calendar; Earnings Whispers. Full source list in the companion DataNotes file.
| The tape in one paragraph. The S&P 500 printed its first record close since June and the Magnificent Seven were almost entirely absent from it. The index rose 1.79% to 7,736.52, the Dow 907.47 points to 54,085.88 — a second consecutive record and its first close above 54,000 — and the Nasdaq Composite 2.59% to 26,584.99, its four-session gain now 8.8%, the best run since April 2025 (WSJ). But Meta closed -0.43%, Amazon -2.36%, Netflix +0.33%, Disney +0.04%, Microsoft +0.99% and Alphabet A +1.13%: five of the seven largest names underperformed a +1.79% tape. What carried the session was a 6.55% day in the PHLX Semiconductor Index and a 29.45% day in Palantir. The trigger was policy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that "we are in talks with the Iranians" and that "there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the Strait"; Qatar said a proposal had been drafted and, per Bloomberg, Tehran is considering allowing European nations to remove mines from Hormuz. WTI for September settled -5.69% at $75.77 and Brent for October -5.26% at $79.36, the first sub-$80 Brent settlement of the closure, taking the two-day crude decline to roughly 10.4%. Bonds took the hint: the official par 10-year fell 7 bp to 4.63%, the 3-, 5- and 7-year 7 bp each, the 2-year 5 bp and the 30-year 5 bp (§6) — a belly-led bull-flattener, a policy-path repricing rather than a term-premium move. Earnings supplied the equity fuel. Palantir +29.45% to $162.66 on 167.9m shares, its best day since February 2024, after revenue nearly doubled and CEO Alex Karp called the quarter "otherworldly," adding that "demand for AI sovereignty has now been unleashed." Caterpillar +5.57% to $876.27 on adjusted EPS of $8.17 against a $6.20 consensus and revenue of $20.54bn against $19.34bn — but CAT traded as high as $935.00, up 12.65% intraday, and gave back 6.28% from that high into the close. The semis were the breadth engine: Micron +7.59%, Marvell +12.81%, SanDisk +10.97%, Intel +10.84%, Super Micro +10.61%, Teradyne +10.26%, Broadcom +6.59%, AMD +7.00% into its 4:15 print. WSJ's framing is the right one: with just over half the SOX reported, profits are up a collective 144% year on year (LSEG) while the index had been 17% off its 22 June record; Micron trades at 6x and SanDisk 7x forward earnings against 20x for the S&P. Janus Henderson's Shaon Baqui: "It hasn't been enough just to put up numbers. You have to really shock-and-awe." Breadth confirmed: advancing volume was nearly 80% on Nasdaq and almost 70% on the NYSE, advancers led 3,244 to 1,099 on Nasdaq and 1,785 to 879 on the NYSE, with 265 new Nasdaq highs against 93 lows (FactSet) — though total volume was only ~85% of the 30-day average on Nasdaq and under 72% on the NYSE by 3 p.m. The macro cut the other way: June job openings fell 178,000 to 7.36 million against a 7.6 million consensus on a downwardly revised May, and the June trade deficit narrowed $4.4bn to $73.3bn. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said she is content at 3.50-3.75%. Two clean fades sat against the euphoria: Texas Governor Greg Abbott halted new data-centre interconnection approvals — NRG -15.48% and Vistra -8.15% on the best day of the year for AI hardware — and Amazon fell 2.36% after a filing showed Jeff Bezos sold about 15 million shares worth roughly $4.1bn under a plan adopted in November 2025. Chipotle fell 9.72% on a Minnesota salmonella link that Bloomberg reports has sickened 110 people. And VIX rose 4.04% to 16.50 on a record close. After the bell, AMD fell about 8% despite record sales and a double beat, and SpaceX lost almost 7% after disclosing $18.4bn of second-quarter capital expenditure — both belong to Wednesday's session. |
| 2 · Market Hot Spots (ranked by tradability) |
| • | 1. The record close is not what it looks like: five of the seven largest names in the index underperformed it, and one was down 2.4%. S&P 500 +1.79% to a record 7,736.52, against Meta -0.43%, Amazon -2.36%, Netflix +0.33%, Disney +0.04%, Microsoft +0.99%, Alphabet A +1.13% — only Apple +1.93% and Tesla +1.65% cleared the tape. Nvidia +2.56% to $211.94 was a laggard within the semiconductor complex it leads, on a day the SOX rose 6.55%. The index got its points from Palantir (+29.45%), Caterpillar (+5.57%), Intel (+10.84%), Micron (+7.59%), Broadcom (+6.59%), IBM (+3.91%) and Cisco (+5.07%). This is a rotation inside the AI trade — from platform owners to picks-and-shovels and software monetisers — not a broad re-risking. Expression: own equal-weight or the SOX against cap-weighted S&P. Invalidation: a session where the Mag-7 lead and the SOX lags. |
| • | 2. Bessent moved the oil market with a sentence, and the physical market has not verified it. WTI September settled -5.69% at $75.77, Brent October -5.26% at $79.36 — the first sub-$80 Brent settlement of the closure and a ~10.4% two-day decline. The words were specific: "We are in talks with the Iranians... There is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait," and, on tolls, "It would be freedom of movement." Qatar says a draft exists; Bloomberg reports Tehran is weighing letting European navies clear mines. But WSJ notes a fresh attack on a cargo vessel off Oman briefly pushed prices back up, and the toll question is unresolved — the structure under discussion routes Gulf-bound ships through Iranian waters and departing vessels through Omani waters without fees. Expression: express the de-escalation through options, not futures. Two sessions have taken ~$9 off WTI on words alone. |
| • | 3. The semiconductor complex delivered its best four-day rally since 2020, and nobody's numbers were cut. SOX +6.55% to 12,179.3, a 17% comeback from last Wednesday's low (WSJ), after being 17% off the 22 June record and briefly in a bear market. Internals: Marvell +12.81%, SanDisk +10.97%, Intel +10.84%, Teradyne +10.26%, Skyworks +8.99%, Lam Research +7.82%, Micron +7.59%, Qualcomm +7.33%, Microchip +7.31%, AMD +7.00%, KLA +6.95%, Broadcom +6.59%, NXP +5.99%, TSMC ADR +2.72%, Nvidia +2.56%. Fundamentals: SOX constituent profits +144% y/y with just over half reported (LSEG); Micron and SanDisk at 6x and 7x forward earnings against 20x for the S&P. Positioning: retail net sold more than $6bn of technology stocks last week, the most since at least 2019 (Citadel Securities), and a levered AI fund was force-liquidated. Expression: the dispersion leg has paid — run outright semis beta into SanDisk and Western Digital on 8/5. Invalidation: AMD's after-hours -8% on a beat-and-raise is the warning that the bar is still above the print. |
| • | 4. The single most instructive number of the session is that VIX rose 4.04% on a record close. VIX 16.50, +0.64, range 15.51-16.65 — corroborated identically by WSJ Market Data and Investing.com. On Monday a 1.48% S&P rally bought only 13 VIX cents of relief; today a 1.79% rally to an all-time high bought 64 cents of additional implied volatility. Spot up, vol up is the signature of call-side demand and event hedging, not complacency: Friday's payrolls and next Wednesday's CPI sit inside the front expiry, and the AMD/SpaceX after-hours reactions show why. Expression: this is the wrong tape to sell volatility into — own the upside in options while the skew still pays you. |
| • | 5. Texas broke the AI-power trade on the best day of the year for AI hardware. Governor Greg Abbott ordered a halt to new data-centre interconnection approvals pending a comprehensive audit of existing requests (WSJ). NRG Energy -15.48% to $117.04, range $112.50-$140.03; Vistra -8.15% to $143.23; Constellation Energy -2.42%. Utilities closed -0.37%, one of only three red Finviz groups, on a day the SOX rose 6.55%. The mechanism is durable: the merchant-power AI thesis capitalises an interconnection queue, and a moratorium reprices that queue's option value. Expression: fade rallies in ERCOT-levered merchant power until the audit's terms of reference are published. Invalidation: a defined, short audit window with grandfathering of pending requests. |
| • | 6. Caterpillar beat EPS by 32%, opened up 12.65% and closed 6.28% off its high. Adjusted EPS $8.17 vs. a $6.20 LSEG consensus; revenue $20.54bn vs. $19.34bn; construction sales +35%; power and energy +17% on data-centre generator demand; full-year tariff costs guided to the low end (CNBC, WSJ). The stock printed $935.00 against an $830.03 prior close and closed at $876.27, +5.57%, on the day it "single-handedly added several hundred points to the Dow Industrials" (WSJ). A 32% EPS beat that cannot hold its opening print sends the same message the memory complex has been sending: the bar, not the number, is the binding constraint. Read-across: Industrials +2.71%, with Johnson Controls +4.95%, Nucor +4.88%, Emerson +2.58% but Rockwell Automation -7.34% and Cummins -1.99% — not an indiscriminate bid. |
| • | 7. Palantir's 29.45% day is a re-rating of AI monetisation against AI capex — and the stock is still down on the year. PLTR +29.45% to $162.66 on 167.9m shares, range $143.28-$164.52, its best session since February 2024, after revenue nearly doubled, guidance was raised and U.S. commercial revenue rose roughly 150% y/y. Karp: the quarter was "otherworldly"; "demand for AI sovereignty has now been unleashed." Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy from Hold, target $200 — 22.9% above the close. The discipline WSJ supplies: PLTR is still about 8% lower year-to-date. BNY Wealth's Alicia Levine: "The only thing that really mattered was the question on ROI driving earnings higher and the question of whether or not earnings are in a bubble — and the answer is no." |
| • | 8. Amazon fell 2.36% on a $4.1bn Bezos sale, one session after crossing $3 trillion — and the market treated it as information, not supply. AMZN -2.36% to $277.31 on 57.9m shares, after a filing showed Jeff Bezos sold about 15 million shares worth roughly $4.1bn under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 14 November 2025. A pre-arranged plan carries no signalling content by construction, which makes the size of the reaction the point: the stock had risen ~17% in the prior week and 4.59% on Monday, and the marginal buyer was thin enough that $4.1bn of pre-announced supply moved it 2.4% on a record-close day. That is the cleanest evidence that megacap positioning is full rather than washed out. |
| • | 9. The bond market bought the oil headline in the belly, and the diagnostic is a policy-path repricing. Official par: 3M -2 to 3.89%, 6M -2 to 4.00%, 1Y -3 to 4.04%, 2Y -5 to 4.20%, 3Y -7 to 4.25%, 5Y -7 to 4.33%, 7Y -7 to 4.47%, 10Y -7 to 4.63%, 20Y -5 to 5.18%, 30Y -5 to 5.18%. The belly fell 7 bp while both wings fell 5 bp. 2s10s flattened 2 bp to +43, 3M10Y flattened 5 bp to +74, 2s30s was unchanged at +98. Cross-check: Germany -4 bp to 3.13%, the UK -6 bp to 4.90%, but Japan +3.1 bp to 2.859% (WSJ) — the JGB was the only major long end to sell off. Wells Fargo's Tony Miano: "Lower oil prices can ease inflation concerns... [but] broader prices could remain sticky in the near term, limiting how far Treasury yields move lower." |
| • | 10. The Taiwan dollar did not move on the biggest semiconductor day of the year — and the won barely did either. USD/TWD 32.4090, 0.00% on the day, while TSMC's ADR rose 2.72% and the SOX rose 6.55%; USD/KRW 1,429.82, +0.03%. After a week in which Korea printed a record +17.9% day and then gave a third of it back, Asian FX is completely disconnected from Asian tech equity beta. The diagnostic: the marginal buyer of Asian semiconductors is domestic and levered, not a foreign portfolio flow that must buy the currency. Invalidation: a TWD break below 32.00 on a semis up-day, which would finally mark real foreign inflow. |
| 3 · Sector Performance — August 4, 2026 (Finviz classification, U.S.-listed) |
| Sector | 1-Day | 1-Week | YTD | | Technology | +4.25% | +8.47% | +23.47% | | Basic Materials | +2.72% | +2.86% | +11.35% | | Industrials | +2.71% | +3.08% | +16.27% | | Communication Services | +0.57% | +6.06% | +3.52% | | Financial | +0.48% | +0.85% | +8.67% | | Consumer Defensive | +0.37% | -2.06% | +8.27% | | Healthcare | +0.03% | -2.96% | +4.62% | | Consumer Cyclical | -0.00% | +7.08% | -1.12% | | Real Estate | -0.17% | -2.05% | +11.33% | | Utilities | -0.37% | -2.43% | +3.28% | | Energy | -0.77% | +1.78% | +30.38% |
Eight green, three red, and the shape is the story: Technology alone did 4.25% while Consumer Cyclical did exactly nothing. Finviz places Amazon in Consumer Cyclical, not Technology — which is precisely why that group printed -0.00% on a +2.59% Nasdaq day: AMZN -2.36% offset Expedia +4.71%, Carnival +2.96%, MGM +2.73% and United Airlines +3.26%, and the group's +7.08% week is entirely last week's Amazon earnings move. Technology +4.25% is the semiconductor complex plus Palantir +29.45%, Intel +10.84%, Corning +9.06%, Dell +8.92%, Jabil +6.79%, HP Inc +6.21%, Keysight +6.01%, TE Connectivity +5.78% — S&P's own Information Technology index closed +4.09% at 6,932.69 (CNBC). Basic Materials +2.72% is the reflation leg of cheaper energy: Freeport +5.75%, Nucor +4.88%, Steel Dynamics +2.63%, with copper +1.60% and silver +3.18% doing the work. Industrials +2.71% is Caterpillar generalised — but Rockwell -7.34%, W.W. Grainger -5.16% and Aptiv -16.62% sit inside it, so the average carries very wide dispersion.
Utilities -0.37% is the second-order tell of the table. The Abbott data-centre moratorium (NRG -15.48%, Vistra -8.15%, Constellation -2.42%) overwhelmed a 7 bp rally in the 10-year that on any normal day would have made the group green. Energy -0.77% on a 5.7% crude settlement decline is a beta of roughly 0.14 to the barrel, shallower even than Monday's 0.25, and the composition explains it: Marathon Petroleum +1.82%, Williams +1.53%, Halliburton +1.47% and Valero +0.39% were green — refiners gained on a widening crack as crude fell faster than product — while EOG -1.48%, Devon -1.17%, ConocoPhillips -1.02%, Exxon -0.70%, Occidental -0.69% and Diamondback -3.46% carried the loss. Healthcare +0.03% could not participate at all: UnitedHealth -1.88%, Cigna -2.84%, Humana -3.30%, Elevance -1.27%, Eli Lilly -0.47% against Amgen +2.94%, Moderna +3.36%, Gilead +3.14% — and it is -2.96% on the week, the worst group over five sessions. Finviz buckets are not official GICS/S&P sector indices.
Reconciliation. All eleven groups reconcile against Monday's published YTD compounded by Tuesday's 1-day move: Technology 1.1845 x 1.0425 = +23.48% vs. 23.47% shown; Energy 1.3140 x 0.9923 = +30.39% vs. 30.38%; Industrials +16.27% vs. 16.27%; Basic Materials +11.35% vs. 11.35%; Real Estate +11.32% vs. 11.33%; Financial +8.65% vs. 8.67%; Consumer Defensive +8.24% vs. 8.27%; Healthcare +4.61% vs. 4.62%; Communication Services +3.52% vs. 3.52%; Utilities +3.28% vs. 3.28%; Consumer Cyclical -1.06% vs. -1.12%. Maximum deviation 0.06 pt (Consumer Cyclical); median 0.01 pt — the tightest reconciliation in a fortnight. | 4 · Movers & Single-Name Catalysts |
Upside
| • | Palantir (PLTR) +29.45% to $162.66, range $143.28-$164.52 on 167.9m shares — Q2 revenue nearly doubled, U.S. commercial revenue +~150% y/y, full-year revenue and income guidance raised. Karp: "otherworldly"; "demand for AI sovereignty has now been unleashed." Deutsche Bank to Buy from Hold, target $200 (+22.9% from the close). Best day since February 2024; still ~8% lower year-to-date (WSJ). |
| • | Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) +26.47% to $368.83, range $329.47-$369.79 — the largest S&P 500 gainer after Palantir, closing at the high on its 6:30 a.m. print. Gartner (IT) +22.61% to $185.79, range $155.86-$191.91 on 3.4m shares. |
| • | Intel (INTC) +10.84% to $100.86 on 112.9m shares — back above $100, and the highest-volume single name on the tape after Nvidia. SanDisk (SNDK) +10.97% to $1,429.28 two days before its own print; Super Micro (SMCI) +10.61%; Teradyne (TER) +10.26%; Leidos (LDOS) +10.01%. |
| • | Corning (GLW) +9.06% to $159.92; Skyworks (SWKS) +8.99%; Dell (DELL) +8.92% to $467.27; Generac (GNRC) +8.66%; Lam Research (LRCX) +7.82%; Micron (MU) +7.59% to $892.45 — BofA's Vivek Arya: "Hyperscaler spending continues to rise despite higher component costs, suggesting semis/memory pricing power." |
| • | Qualcomm +7.33%, Microchip +7.31%, AMD +7.00% to $518.58 (range $502.20-$530.13) into its 4:15 print, KLA +6.95%, Broadridge +7.03%, Jabil +6.79%, Broadcom +6.59% to $418.08, Clorox +6.52%, Expeditors +6.38%, Charter +6.22%, Qorvo +6.22%, HP Inc +6.21%, Enphase +6.15%, Keysight +6.01%, NXP +5.99%, TE Connectivity +5.78%, Freeport-McMoRan +5.75% to $67.30. |
| • | Caterpillar (CAT) +5.57% to $876.27, range $866.85-$935.00 on 5.35m shares — adjusted EPS $8.17 vs. $6.20 (LSEG); revenue $20.54bn vs. $19.34bn; construction sales +35%; power and energy +17%; tariff costs guided to the low end. It gave back 6.28% from its intraday high. |
| • | Cisco +5.07%, Johnson Controls +4.95%, Nucor +4.88%, Expedia +4.71%, IBM +3.91% to $235.15, Moderna +3.36%, United Airlines +3.26%, Gilead +3.14%, Carnival +2.96%, Amgen +2.94% into its after-close print, Marvell +12.81% to $218.59, MGM +2.73%, TSMC ADR +2.72%, Salesforce +2.71%, Goldman Sachs +2.63% to $1,054.10, Steel Dynamics +2.63%, Emerson +2.58%, Nvidia +2.56% to $211.94 on 123.3m shares, Newmont +2.47%, Home Depot +2.42%, 3M +2.38%, Illinois Tool Works +2.24%, P&G +2.10%, Sherwin-Williams +2.07%, Deere +2.03%. |
| • | Apple (AAPL) +1.93% to $309.29 — downgraded to Hold from Buy at DZ Bank, target $310, and it rose anyway. Marathon Petroleum +1.82%, Tesla +1.65%, Boeing +1.57% to $237.16, Starbucks +1.55%, Williams +1.53%, Pfizer +1.52% to $25.41 (adjusted EPS $0.77 vs. $0.68; revenue $15.03bn vs. $14.41bn), Halliburton +1.47%, JPMorgan +1.38%, McDonald's +1.19% to $268.38 (adjusted EPS $3.38 vs. $3.32; revenue $7.1bn vs. $7.13bn, a slight miss). |
| • | Non-S&P-500 names: Snap +14.78% to $5.79 on a revenue beat with DAU and ARPU above plan; SpaceX +9.43% to $125.33 ahead of its first-ever quarterly report — retail has bought it on net every trading day since the June IPO despite the stock trading more than 17% below its opening price (VandaTrack); CoreWeave +7.14%; IonQ +7.41%; Rocket Lab +5.74%; Wayfair +30% on its best U.S. second quarter since 2020; Alibaba ADR +1.31%. |
Downside
| • | Aptiv (APTV) -16.62% to $47.72, range $46.42-$51.00 on 16.2m shares — the worst S&P 500 performer of the session, on its 6:45 a.m. print. |
| • | NRG Energy (NRG) -15.48% to $117.04, range $112.50-$140.03 on 13.5m shares — Abbott's halt to new Texas data-centre interconnection approvals, on the day of its own 7:00 a.m. report. Vistra (VST) -8.15% to $143.23 on the same catalyst, three days before its own print. |
| • | Chipotle (CMG) -9.72% to $33.82, range $33.78-$37.65 on 48.0m shares, closing on the low — jalapenos pulled from Minnesota restaurants over a salmonella outbreak that has sickened 110 people (Bloomberg). "We are cooperating with the public health authorities in their efforts." |
| • | Alexandria Real Estate -7.84% after its Monday after-close print; Rockwell Automation -7.34% on its 7:00 a.m. report; W.W. Grainger -5.16% to $1,300.53 on its 8:00 a.m. report. |
| • | Prologis -3.59%, Diamondback -3.46%, Revvity -3.32%, Humana -3.30%, Cboe Global -3.16%, Cigna -2.84%, Nike -2.63%, Constellation Energy -2.42%, Amazon -2.36% to $277.31, Las Vegas Sands -2.06%, Cummins -1.99%, UnitedHealth -1.88%, EOG -1.48%, Chevron -1.45%, Elevance -1.27%, Sempra -1.20%, Devon -1.17%, Edison International -1.08%, Verizon -1.05%, ConocoPhillips -1.02%, CVS -0.90%, Hilton -0.74%, Exxon -0.70% (DZ Bank to Hold from Buy, target $156), Occidental -0.69%, ONEOK -0.67%, AbbVie -0.53%, Marriott -0.48%, Eli Lilly -0.47% into Wednesday's report, Meta -0.43%, Coca-Cola -0.36%. |
| • | Non-S&P-500: Novo Nordisk ADR -6.01%; Spotify -1.57% despite adding seven million premium subscribers and reporting record gross margins, as marketing and AI spending weighed (WSJ). |
Analyst actions
| • | Palantir (PLTR): Deutsche Bank to Buy from Hold, target $200 — 22.9% upside from the $162.66 close. |
| • | Apple (AAPL): DZ Bank to Hold from Buy, target $310 — 0.2% upside; the stock rose 1.93% anyway. Exxon Mobil (XOM): DZ Bank to Hold from Buy, target $156 — 1.3% upside; XOM -0.70%. |
| • | Intuit (INTU): Truist to Hold from Buy, target cut to $350 from $410. eBay (EBAY): Citizens to Market Perform from Outperform — a second consecutive session with a downgrade after Monday's Wells Fargo cut to Underweight. |
| • | Madrigal (MDGL): Wolfe to Outperform from Peer Perform, target $605; Replimune (REPL): Leerink to Outperform, target $17 from $11; Femsa (FMX): BofA to Buy, target $150 from $125; BBB Foods (TBBB): UBS to Buy, target $51 from $43 (none are S&P 500 constituents). |
| • | Citi (John Tower, Buy) on McDonald's: "The in-line US/IOM comps should offer enough evidence to investors that the company's top-line efforts can work to cut through ongoing inflationary pressures on their core guest," with shares "down ~13%" and the print supporting a near-term rebound. Baird's David Tarantino (Neutral) took the other side: "With macro headwinds on MCD's core low-to-middle income consumer demographic clouding the near-term fundamental outlook... we are inclined to stay patient." |
Notable corporate and macro items
| • | After the close: AMD fell about 8% despite record sales and beats on both revenue and profit (WSJ) — the outlook "failed to inspire" (Bloomberg). SpaceX lost almost 7% after disclosing $18.4bn of second-quarter capital expenditure, alongside revenue growth of 92% (WSJ). Neither reaction is in this report's closing data. |
| • | Jefferies has been told that some of the invoices underpinning its financing to an iron-ore trader, Sapphire Minmetals Corp., are not genuine (Bloomberg) — a live single-name credit item (§9). Whale Rock fell 22% as the AI sell-off crippled hedge-fund returns (Bloomberg); separately, a levered AI fund was forced to liquidate much of its book to meet lender redemptions (WSJ). Cerberus is seeking $4bn for a second supply-chain fund (Bloomberg). |
| • | Earnings scoreboard: more than 84% of reported S&P 500 companies have beaten expectations (FactSet). Energy-sector Q2 earnings are up more than 120% y/y against roughly 60% for the index overall (WSJ) — the arithmetic behind President Trump's rebuke that oil companies are "making too much money." |
| • | Macquarie's Thierry Wizman: "From watching the stock market zoom higher over the past three sessions, you wouldn't think there's anything wrong with the world. After all, even the semiconductor makers have recovered from their big skid in July after some [AI] hyperscalers managed to quell analysts' fears about whether their data centre investments are excessively eating into cash flows." |
| • | eToro's Bret Kenwell on Friday's payrolls: "A red-hot print could strengthen the case for a September rate hike, particularly with inflation still elevated. However, a disappointing report combined with last week's weaker-than-expected GDP growth could give the Fed more cover to remain on hold." Bloomberg's Edward Harrison: "Inflation is still the only part of the Fed mandate not being met... If [payrolls] are strong, it can help put renewed upward pressure on real yields." |
| • | HSBC reported Q2 pre-tax profit of $10.1bn, beating, with revenue +16% y/y, a 10 cents second interim dividend and a buyback of up to $1bn. Lufthansa fell 8.86% to EUR 8.44 after core profit dropped 56% to EUR 383m on jet-fuel costs and strikes — the clearest European read of the war's demand cost. |
| 5 · S&P 500 Earnings Calendar — Current & Next Week |
Times are ET. Every day page from Wednesday 8/5 through Friday 8/14 was re-pulled from Earnings Whispers this session, and membership was screened against the current published S&P 500 constituent list (503 tickers) rather than a carried list — which corrects several entries, flagged at the foot of the section. Non-S&P-500 names are excluded. Re-verify times and membership against company IR before trading any date.
| • | Mon 8/3 — completed. BMO: Loews (L), Marriott (MAR) — closed -7.05%, Tyson (TSN) — +2.85%. AMC: SBA Communications (SBAC), Vertex (VRTX), Diamondback (FANG), Palantir (PLTR) — the print that produced Tuesday's +29.45%, ON Semiconductor (ON), Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) — closed -7.84% Tuesday, Clorox (CLX) — +6.52% Tuesday, ONEOK (OKE), Williams (WMB). |
| • | Tue 8/4 — completed. BMO: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Ball (BALL), DuPont (DD), Gartner (IT) — +22.61%, Henry Schein (HSIC), Leidos (LDOS) — +10.01%, Revvity (RVTY) — -3.32%, Waters (WAT), Apollo (APO), Caterpillar (CAT) 6:30 — adj. EPS $8.17 vs. $6.20; revenue $20.54bn vs. $19.34bn; closed +5.57% at $876.27 after trading to $935.00, IDEXX (IDXX), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Merck (MRK) 6:30 — adj. loss $0.13 vs. a $0.27 loss expected; revenue $16.61bn vs. $16.36bn; FY revenue guidance raised; +0.18%, Zebra (ZBRA) — +26.47%, Aptiv (APTV) 6:45 — -16.62%, the worst S&P performer, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) — +1.82%, Pfizer (PFE) 6:45 — adj. EPS $0.77 vs. $0.68; revenue $15.03bn vs. $14.41bn; +1.52%, Kimco (KIM), AMETEK (AME), Broadridge (BR) — +7.03%, Duke Energy (DUK), McDonald's (MCD) 7:00 — adj. EPS $3.38 vs. $3.32; revenue $7.1bn vs. $7.13bn; +1.19%, NRG Energy (NRG) 7:00 — -15.48% on the Texas moratorium, Rockwell (ROK) 7:00 — -7.34%, TransDigm (TDG), Cummins (CMI) — -1.99%, FIS, PSEG (PEG), Sysco (SYY), W.W. Grainger (GWW) 8:00 — -5.16%, Progressive (PGR), Expeditors (EXPD) 8:30 — +6.38%, Pinnacle West (PNW). |
| • | Tue 8/4 AMC — completed. Amgen (AMGN) — closed +2.94% into the print, Booking (BKNG), Gilead (GILD) — +3.14%, Wynn (WYNN), Arista (ANET), DaVita (DVA), Devon (DVN), Emerson (EMR), Jacobs (J), Match (MTCH), AMD 4:15 — record sales with revenue and profit beats; shares fell about 8% after hours, Celanese (CE), Healthpeak (DOC), IFF, Mosaic (MOS), Prudential Financial (PRU), Assurant (AIZ). Also on this page: SpaceX (SPCX), excluded from the S&P list — revenue +92% y/y, Q2 capex $18.4bn, shares -7% after hours. |
| • | Wed 8/5 — re-pulled this session. BMO: EOG Resources (EOG) 1:25 AM, Cencora (COR) 6:30, CVS Health (CVS) 6:30, NiSource (NI) 6:30, Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) 6:30, Eli Lilly (LLY) 6:45, Iron Mountain (IRM) 6:45, Global Payments (GPN) 6:55, Uber (UBER) 6:55, CDW 7:00, Charles River Labs (CRL) 7:00, Insulet (PODD) 7:00, Kraft Heinz (KHC) 7:00, Phillips 66 (PSX) 7:00, Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) 8:00 (new to this pull), Walt Disney (DIS) — "Before Open"; the reviewed calendar did not publish a specific time, so confirm with Disney IR. LLY and DIS are the two index-moving prints of the day. |
| • | Wed 8/5 AMC: Western Digital (WDC) 4:00, Axon (AXON) 4:00, Expedia (EXPE) 4:00, AppLovin (APP) 4:05, Block (XYZ) 4:05, Corpay (CPAY) 4:05, DoorDash (DASH) 4:05, eBay (EBAY) 4:05, Realty Income (O) 4:05, SanDisk (SNDK) 4:05, Solventum (SOLV) 4:05, McKesson (MCK) 4:10, Motorola Solutions (MSI) 4:10, Albemarle (ALB) 4:15, MetLife (MET) 4:15, News Corp B (NWS) 4:15, Occidental (OXY) 4:15, Texas Pacific Land (TPL) 4:15, News Corp A (NWSA) 4:25, CF Industries (CF) 4:30, Host Hotels (HST) 4:30, Steris (STE) 4:30, Atmos Energy (ATO) 4:35, Allstate (ALL) 5:10. SNDK and WDC are the memory-pricing referendum — and after AMD's after-hours reaction they now adjudicate whether the semis beta call survives. |
| • | Thu 8/6 BMO: Targa (TRGP) 6:00, Becton Dickinson (BDX) 6:30, Kenvue (KVUE) 6:30, Molson Coors (TAP) 6:30, Viatris (VTRS) 6:55, ConocoPhillips (COP) 7:00, Datadog (DDOG) 7:00 (returned to the listing), Evergy (EVRG) 7:00, Fiserv (FISV) 7:00 (likewise), Howmet (HWM) 7:00, Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) 7:00, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) 7:00, Zoetis (ZTS) 7:00, Constellation Energy (CEG) 7:05, Parker-Hannifin (PH) 7:30, Sempra (SRE) 7:55, APA 8:00, Fox B (FOX) 8:00, Ralph Lauren (RL) 8:00, Fox Corporation A (FOXA) — "Before Open"; no time published, confirm with Fox IR. CEG at 7:05 is now the most important print of the week for the AI-power complex. |
| • | Thu 8/6 AMC: Airbnb (ABNB) 4:00, Akamai (AKAM) 4:00, The Trade Desk (TTD) 4:00 (returned to the listing), Aflac (AFL) 4:05, Gen Digital (GEN) 4:05, ResMed (RMD) 4:05, Monster Beverage (MNST) 4:10, Republic Services (RSG) 4:10, AIG 4:15, Microchip (MCHP) 4:15, Consolidated Edison (ED) 4:30. |
| • | Fri 8/7 — payrolls day. BMO: Vistra (VST) — "Before Open"; no time published, confirm with Vistra IR — after Tuesday's -8.15% this is the print that tells you whether the Texas moratorium has an earnings number attached. Take-Two (TTWO) 7:00, PPL 7:30. AMC: the reviewed after-close page lists only two names, neither an S&P 500 constituent — no S&P 500 after-close reporters are published for 8/7, unchanged for a fourth consecutive edition. |
| Next week (Aug 10-14) — the season empties out |
| • | Mon 8/10. BMO: the reviewed page lists no S&P 500 reporters (49 names screened). AMC: Simon Property Group (SPG) 4:05. |
| • | Tue 8/11. BMO: Cardinal Health (CAH) 6:45. AMC: Super Micro (SMCI) 4:05, Lumentum (LITE) 4:00 (new to this pull). |
| • | Wed 8/12 — CPI day (8:30). BMO: Amcor (AMCR) 6:00. AMC: Cisco (CSCO) 4:05, Coherent (COHR) 4:05 (new to this pull). |
| • | Thu 8/13 — PPI day (8:30). BMO: Tapestry (TPR) 6:45. AMC: Applied Materials (AMAT) 4:00. |
| • | Fri 8/14 — retail sales, business inventories and Michigan preliminary. Neither page lists any S&P 500 reporter (eight names screened across both). |
Changes vs. the prior calendar (8/3 report). Methodology correction: membership was re-screened against the current 503-ticker constituent list, which removes MercadoLibre (MELI) and Paycom (PAYC) from 8/5 AMC, EPAM and Teleflex (TFX) from 8/6 BMO and Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) from 8/6 AMC — none is a current constituent. It also explains the prior edition's flagged absences of Owens Corning (OC), BorgWarner (BWA), United Therapeutics (UTHR), Cheniere (LNG), DraftKings (DKNG) and Reinsurance Group (RGA), none of which appears on the current list either. These were membership errors carried forward, not schedule changes. Genuine returns: Datadog, Fiserv and The Trade Desk are confirmed present after one-session absences — which vindicates flagging rather than dropping on a single absence from a bounded listing. Additions: Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) 8/5 BMO; Lumentum (LITE) 8/11 AMC; Coherent (COHR) 8/12 AMC. Confirmed removal: MarketAxess (MKTX) stays off 8/7 BMO for a third consecutive session. The forward calendar remains almost empty: nine S&P 500 reporters across all ten Aug 10-14 day pages against roughly 130 this week, and only Cisco and Applied Materials move an index — both on inflation-print days. | 6 · U.S. Treasury Yields — Official Par Curve (Treasury.gov, 3:30 PM ET) |
| Tenor | 8/4 close | 8/3 close | 1-day chg | 7/28 close | 1-week chg | | 1 Mo | 3.78% | 3.79% | -1 bp | 3.76% | +2 bp | | 1.5 Mo | 3.80% | 3.82% | -2 bp | 3.86% | -6 bp | | 2 Mo | 3.85% | 3.87% | -2 bp | 3.90% | -5 bp | | 3 Mo | 3.89% | 3.91% | -2 bp | 3.90% | -1 bp | | 4 Mo | 3.91% | 3.94% | -3 bp | 4.02% | -11 bp | | 6 Mo | 4.00% | 4.02% | -2 bp | 4.07% | -7 bp | | 1 Yr | 4.04% | 4.07% | -3 bp | 4.09% | -5 bp | | 2 Yr | 4.20% | 4.25% | -5 bp | 4.26% | -6 bp | | 3 Yr | 4.25% | 4.32% | -7 bp | 4.31% | -6 bp | | 5 Yr | 4.33% | 4.40% | -7 bp | 4.35% | -2 bp | | 7 Yr | 4.47% | 4.54% | -7 bp | 4.47% | 0 bp | | 10 Yr | 4.63% | 4.70% | -7 bp | 4.61% | +2 bp | | 20 Yr | 5.18% | 5.23% | -5 bp | 5.11% | +7 bp | | 30 Yr | 5.18% | 5.23% | -5 bp | 5.09% | +9 bp |
| Curve spread | 8/4 | 8/3 | 1-day chg | 7/28 | 1-week chg | | 2s10s | +43 bp | +45 bp | -2 bp (flatter) | +35 bp | +8 bp (steeper) | | 3M10Y | +74 bp | +79 bp | -5 bp (flatter) | +71 bp | +3 bp (steeper) | | 2s30s | +98 bp | +98 bp | unchanged | +83 bp | +15 bp (steeper) |
The shape is a belly-led bull-flattener, and the diagnostic is a policy-path repricing rather than a term-premium move. The 3-, 5-, 7- and 10-year all fell exactly 7 bp, the 2-year 5 bp, and both wings — the 20- and 30-year — 5 bp. When the intermediate sector out-rallies the long bond on a day crude settles 5.7% lower, the market is not marking down the compensation it demands for holding duration; it is marking down the expected policy rate over the next three to seven years, which is exactly the horizon a Hormuz reopening would affect through headline inflation. §8 corroborates it: the CME September hold probability jumped from 32.8% to 41.6% in one session, and every 2027 card added 3-5 points to its hold bucket.
The front of the bill curve finally joined in, and that is the confirmation Monday's report asked for. On Monday the 3-month rose 8 bp to 3.91% while the whole coupon curve rallied — this report called that a financing signal, not a policy signal. It did not persist: the 3-month fell 2 bp to 3.89% and the 4-month 3 bp to 3.91%, and the funding data agree — SOFR eased 1 bp to 3.65%, exactly at IORB, with volume $150bn below Friday's record $3.205tn (§9). Monday's bill cheapening was a month-end and refunding-window artefact that has washed out.
The week-over-week picture is the opposite sign and it matters more. Against 7/28 the front end is 5-11 bp lower, the belly flat to -6 bp, but the 20-year is 7 bp higher and the 30-year 9 bp higher. 2s30s has steepened 15 bp in five sessions and 2s10s 8 bp. The five-day trade is therefore a bear-steepener at the long end sitting on top of a one-day bull-flattener — near-term hikes coming out while the market demands more for 30-year duration. That is precisely the configuration §9's credit take flags.
Vendor reconciliation. The official par 10-year is 4.63% at the 3:30 p.m. fixing; Bloomberg's 4 p.m. real-time mark is 4.61% (-6 bp) and WSJ's 5:04 p.m. quote 4.619% (-0.059 pp). The 2 bp gap is a baseline and timing artefact — a fitted bid-side par construction versus an on-the-run note that kept rallying into the evening — not a level dispute. The one genuine conflict is at the very front: WSJ's 5:04 p.m. bill quotes show the 3-month up 3.3 bp at 3.813% and the 6-month up 1.3 bp at 3.965%, against the par curve's -2 bp for both. Different instruments, different bases, 94 minutes apart; this report uses the official par curve throughout and flags the divergence.
| 7 · U.S. Macroeconomic Calendar |
Current week (Aug 3-7) — released
| Date | Release | Actual | Consensus / prior | Sensitivity | Take | | Mon 8/3 | ISM Manufacturing (10:00) | 55.6 | 54.0 cons. / 53.3 prior | High | Highest since May 2022; employment 52.8, expansionary for the first time in 33 months; prices paid -1.9 to 71.1 | | Tue 8/4 | JOLTS job openings, June (10:00) | 7.36m | 7.6m cons.; May revised down; openings -178k | High | Openings rate 4.4%; hires, separations and quits all a touch higher; openings-to-unemployed just above 1.0. A soft headline with firm internals | | Tue 8/4 | Trade balance, June (8:30) | -$73.3bn | -$77.6bn prior (revised) | Medium | Deficit narrowed $4.4bn (-5.6%); exports $314.7bn, imports $388.0bn; goods deficit -$3.9bn to $102.1bn; YTD deficit -33.8% vs. 2025 | | Tue 8/4 | Manufacturing shipments & orders (10:00) | — | — | Low | Released alongside trade; no market reaction |
Bloomberg's read on JOLTS: openings eased but hiring picked up slightly, "indicating relatively steady demand for workers." That stability is what let the front end rally on the oil headline rather than on a growth scare — and it is why Friday's payrolls, not Tuesday's openings, is the number that matters.
Remaining this week
| Date | Release | Time | Consensus | Sensitivity | Note | | Wed 8/5 | ADP National Employment Report (July) | 8:15 | +75k (Dow Jones) | High | The only pre-payrolls read on private hiring | | Wed 8/5 | ISM Non-Manufacturing (July) | 10:00 | No verified consensus in the reviewed sources | High | After manufacturing's 55.6, the services prices-paid sub-index is what moves the September card | | Wed 8/5 | S&P Global Services PMI (final) / NY Fed Labor Market Tightness | 9:45 / 9:00 | — | Medium | Cross-check on ISM | | Thu 8/6 | Initial claims | 8:30 | — | Medium | — | | Thu 8/6 | Productivity & Costs (preliminary, Q2) | 8:30 | — | High | Unit labour costs is the most under-watched inflation input of the week | | Fri 8/7 | Employment Situation (July) | 8:30 | No verified consensus published; June nonfarm payrolls rose just 57k | Very high | The week's event | | Fri 8/7 | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations | 11:00 | — | Medium | Inflation expectations, relevant post-Warsh |
Next week (Aug 10-14) — the inflation week
| Date | Release | Time | Sensitivity | Note | | Tue 8/11 | NAR existing home sales; NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel | 10:00 / 11:00 | Low | — | | Wed 8/12 | Consumer Price Index (July) | 8:30 | Very high | The print that decides September. Cisco reports the same afternoon | | Thu 8/13 | Producer Price Index (July) | 8:30 | High | Core PPI feeds the PCE bridge; Applied Materials reports the same afternoon | | Thu 8/13 | Initial claims; Weekly Economic Index | 8:30 / 11:30 | Medium | — | | Fri 8/14 | Advance retail sales (July) | 8:30 | High | The consumer read after a quarter of soft discretionary guides | | Fri 8/14 | Business inventories; Michigan preliminary; SPF; NY Fed Nowcast | 10:00-12:45 | Medium | Michigan 1-year inflation expectations |
| The look-ahead, and where the asymmetry sits. Friday's payrolls is a two-sided risk with an unusually clean framing, and both sides have already stated it. eToro's Bret Kenwell: "A red-hot print could strengthen the case for a September rate hike, particularly with inflation still elevated. However, a disappointing report combined with last week's weaker-than-expected GDP growth could give the Fed more cover to remain on hold." Bloomberg's Edward Harrison frames the same trade from the rates side: "Inflation is still the only part of the Fed mandate not being met... If [payrolls] are strong, it can help put renewed upward pressure on real yields." The asymmetry is in the distribution, not the level. With the September card at 41.6% hold / 58.4% hike after two sessions of dovish drift from 24.0% hold a week ago (§8), a soft print has more room to move the card than a hot one does — the hike is still modal, so removing it is a larger repricing than confirming it. Note the sequencing too: June payrolls were just 57k and JOLTS openings fell 178k on a downward May revision, so labour data have been drifting soft while inflation data have not. The configuration that would genuinely break this equity tape is not a weak payroll — it is a firm payroll followed by a firm CPI on 8/12, which would put the 4.00-4.25% December bucket back above 40% and the 30-year through 5.30%. Wednesday's ISM services prices-paid is the first place that combination could show up. |
| 8 · Fed Funds Futures & Rate Path (CME FedWatch / Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor) |
Current target range: 3.50-3.75% (held 9-3 on 7/29; Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented for +25 bp; IORB 3.65%). Chair: Kevin Warsh. Next FOMC: Wednesday, September 16, 2026, 2:00 PM ET — 42 days away. CME FedWatch September card read live and stamped 4 Aug 2026 05:04:13 CT (contract ZQU6, expiry 30 Sep 2026, mid price 96.3000, prior volume 18,997, prior open interest 222,469). Investing.com cards stamped Aug 04, 2026 05:45 PM EDT.
CME FedWatch headline — September 16, 2026 meeting
| Target rate (bps) | NOW | 1 DAY (3 Aug 2026) | 1 WEEK (28 Jul 2026) | 1 MONTH (2 Jul 2026) | | Ease (below 350) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | | 350-375 — hold (current) | 41.6% | 32.8% | 24.0% | 45.9% | | 375-400 (+25 bp) | 58.4% | 67.2% | 55.8% | 46.1% | | 400-425 (+50 bp) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.2% | 8.0% | | Cumulative hike (≥375) | 58.4% | 67.2% | 76.0% | 54.1% |
Column sums: 100.0 / 100.0 / 100.0 / 100.0 — every column sums exactly, with no rounding residual this session.
Provenance of every column. CME published a complete numeric four-column table again today, dated 1 DAY = 3 Aug 2026, 1 WEEK = 28 Jul 2026, 1 MONTH = 2 Jul 2026, so all four columns are read directly off CME; none is carried, estimated or reconstructed. Two things follow. First, the 1-DAY column reads 32.8% hold / 67.2% hike, exactly what this report published as NOW on Monday — Monday's live read reconciles to CME's settlement snapshot to the tenth of a point, so the correction procedure established after Friday's mismatch is validated rather than merely asserted. Second, the 1-WEEK column (28 Jul) reads 24.0/55.8/20.2 while the prior edition's 1-WEEK column (27 Jul) read 18.6/55.7/25.8 — different reference dates one session apart, not conflicting readings of the same day. The standing caveat holds: CME's historical columns are end-of-day settlement snapshots, and a live read after ~5:00 p.m. ET is indicative only.
Reconciling CME against Investing.com — the vendors quote the identical contract and the residual gap is 0.7 points. For September, CME puts the hold at 41.6% and the +25 bp at 58.4%; Investing.com puts them at 42.3% and 57.7%. CME's mid price is 96.3000 and Investing.com's future price is 96.300. With the price input identical, the entire 0.7-point gap is methodology: CME day-weights a mid-month meeting (only about 14 of the month's 30 days carry the post-meeting rate) and anchors on the realised EFFR of 3.63%, half a basis point above the 3.625% range midpoint, while Investing.com maps price to outcomes on a simpler basis. That 0.7 points sits right on the ~1-point irreducible methodology spread calibrated on Monday when the two vendors last quoted the same price, against ~3 points of headline probability per basis point of ZQU6 price difference when they do not. Both vendors agree on direction and on the sign of every change. Use one vendor's columns consistently; do not mix them.
(1) 2026 meeting distributions (Investing.com: current / [prev-day] / [prev-week])
| Meeting | 3.50-3.75 (hold) | 3.75-4.00 (+25) | 4.00-4.25 (+50) | 4.25-4.50 (+75) | 4.50-4.75 (+100) | Cumulative hike | | Sep 16, 2026 | 42.3 / [37.9] / [23.6] | 57.7 / [62.1] / [56.0] | 0.0 / [0.0] / [20.4] | 0.0 / [0.0] / [0.0] | 0.0 / [0.0] / [0.0] | 57.7 / [62.1] / [76.4] | | Oct 28, 2026 | 31.6 / [26.6] / [16.0] | 53.8 / [54.9] / [45.6] | 14.6 / [18.6] / [31.9] | 0.0 / [0.0] / [6.6] | 0.0 / [0.0] / [0.0] | 68.4 / [73.5] / [84.1] | | Dec 9, 2026 | 18.4 / [14.6] / [10.7] | 44.6 / [42.2] / [35.7] | 30.9 / [34.9] / [36.4] | 6.1 / [8.3] / [15.0] | 0.0 / [0.0] / [2.2] | 81.6 / [85.4] / [89.3] |
Row sums: September 100.0 / 100.0 / 100.0; October 100.0 / 100.1 / 100.1; December 100.0 / 100.0 / 100.0 — the two October historical columns are the only cells that round to 100.1. No easing is priced at any 2026 meeting in any column — 0.0% below 3.50% throughout, for the twelfth consecutive session. Contract prices: Sep 96.300, Oct 96.215, Dec 96.080.
Multi-day momentum — a third consecutive session of dovish drift, and today it finally hit the front card. On CME's cumulative basis the September hike arc reads 54.1% a month ago → 76.0% a week ago → 67.2% a day ago → 58.4% now: down 8.8 points on the day, down 17.6 points on the week, up 4.3 points on the month. Monday's report noted that a 5% crude collapse moved the September card by two-tenths of a point and the easing was all further out; Tuesday's second 5.7% crude decline plus a 178k drop in job openings moved the near card, and moved it hard. The back of the 2026 curve went with it: October cumulative 73.5% → 68.4% with the +50 bp bucket 18.6% → 14.6%; December cumulative 85.4% → 81.6%, with ≥+50 bp 43.2% → 37.0% (-6.2 pt) and ≥+75 bp 8.3% → 6.1%. Week over week: December ≥+50 bp is 37.0% against 53.6%, ≥+75 bp 6.1% against 17.2%, and the December hold has risen from 10.7% to 18.4%. The distribution is converging on "one hike, maybe two, and quite possibly none" — a fortnight ago it priced two-to-three.
(2) 2027 meeting path (modal range, cumulative above/below current 3.50-3.75%)
| Meeting | Modal range | Prob. | Cumulative above 3.75 | Cumulative below 3.50 | Contract price | Implied rate | | Jan 27, 2027 | 3.75-4.00 | 40.8% | 84.2% | 0.0% | 96.050 | 3.95% | | Mar 17, 2027 | 3.75-4.00 | 35.0% | 87.9% | 0.0% | 95.990 | 4.01% | | Apr 28, 2027 | 4.00-4.25 | 34.8% | 88.7% | 0.0% | 95.960 | 4.04% | | Jun 9, 2027 | 4.00-4.25 | 34.7% | 89.4% | 0.0% | 95.935 | 4.07% | | Jul 28, 2027 | 4.00-4.25 | 33.5% | 87.2% | 0.7% | 95.930 | 4.07% — the peak | | Sep 15, 2027 | 3.75-4.00 | 32.3% | 83.6% | 2.0% | 95.955 | 4.05% | | Oct 27, 2027 | 3.75-4.00 | 32.2% | 82.0% | 2.8% | 95.975 | 4.03% | | Dec 8, 2027 | 3.75-4.00 | 32.0% | 76.9% | 5.2% | 96.010 | 3.99% |
The terminal rate the strip draws is 4.07%, reached in July 2027, and it has fallen roughly 1.5 bp in a session. The contract prices show it most cleanly: 95.930 at the July-2027 trough, rising to 96.010 by December 2027 — a peak of 4.07% and about 8 bp of give-back by end-2027, i.e. less than half a cut off the peak across seventeen months. The modal range flips from 3.75-4.00 to 4.00-4.25 at the April 2027 meeting and back at September 2027, and the first meaningful easing probability appears only at Jul 2027 (0.7% below 3.50%), reaching 5.2% by December 2027. Cumulative tightening probability peaks at 89.4% in June 2027 — the market is 90% certain the Fed is higher than today at some point in the next year, and simultaneously 95% certain it is not lower by end-2027.
(3) Year-end probability ladders
| Year-end 2026 outcome (Dec 9 meeting) | Range | Probability: current / [prev-day] / [prev-week] | | -75 bp or more | ≤3.00% | 0.0% / [0.0] / [0.0] | | -50 bp | 3.00-3.25% | 0.0% / [0.0] / [0.0] | | -25 bp | 3.25-3.50% | 0.0% / [0.0] / [0.0] | | Hold | 3.50-3.75% | 18.4% / [14.6] / [10.7] | | +25 bp | 3.75-4.00% | 44.6% / [42.2] / [35.7] | | +50 bp | 4.00-4.25% | 30.9% / [34.9] / [36.4] | | +75 bp | 4.25-4.50% | 6.1% / [8.3] / [15.0] | | +100 bp | 4.50-4.75% | 0.0% / [0.0] / [2.2] | | +125 bp or more | ≥4.75% | 0.0% / [0.0] / [0.0] |
| Year-end 2027 outcome (Dec 8 meeting) | Range | Probability (current) | | -100 bp or more | ≤2.75% | 0.0% | | -75 bp | 2.75-3.00% | 0.0% | | -50 bp | 3.00-3.25% | 0.6% | | -25 bp | 3.25-3.50% | 4.6% | | Hold | 3.50-3.75% | 17.8% | | +25 bp | 3.75-4.00% | 32.0% | | +50 bp | 4.00-4.25% | 28.3% | | +75 bp | 4.25-4.50% | 13.0% | | +100 bp | 4.50-4.75% | 3.2% | | +125 bp | 4.75-5.00% | 0.4% | | +150 bp or more | ≥5.00% | 0.0% |
Ladder sums: 2026 = 100.0 exactly; 2027 = 99.9 (the June, July, September, October and December 2027 cards round one-tenth light; January, March and April sum to exactly 100.0). Stating it explicitly because the ladder invites the question: the probability of any 2026 rate cut is 0.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 100 bp of tightening by end-2026 is also 0.0%.
(4) Rate-path interpretation
One day. The September hold probability rose 8.8 points on CME (32.8% → 41.6%) and 4.4 points on Investing.com (37.9% → 42.3%) — the largest single-session dovish move on the September card since the July FOMC. Every 2026 and 2027 card added to its hold bucket — October +5.0, December +3.8, January-2027 +4.0, March-2027 +3.4, April-2027 +3.6, June-2027 +3.1 points — and every card above the modal range gave up ground. The move is not evenly distributed: it removes the second hike rather than the first. December's ≥+50 bp bucket fell 6.2 points while its +25 bp bucket actually rose 2.4 points. The market did not become dovish; it became less convinced about how far.
One week. From 28 July, the September hike is down 17.6 points on CME (76.0% → 58.4%), the October ≥+50 bp bucket down 23.9 points (38.5% → 14.6%), and the December ≥+75 bp bucket down 11.1 points (17.2% → 6.1%). The +50 bp September bucket has gone from 20.2% to zero. Meanwhile — and this is the divergence that defines the week — the 30-year Treasury yield is 9 bp higher and the 20-year 7 bp higher over the identical five sessions (§6). The front end has priced out a policy path while the long end has demanded more compensation. That is a term-premium story sitting underneath a policy-path story, and it is the single most important cross-asset fact in this report.
The named macro hooks, in order of when they can move the card. (i) Wed 8/5, 8:15 — ADP, consensus +75k. (ii) Wed 8/5, 10:00 — ISM non-manufacturing, where prices paid is the hook, after manufacturing prices paid fell 1.9 to 71.1. (iii) Thu 8/6, 8:30 — preliminary Q2 unit labour costs. (iv) Fri 8/7, 8:30 — July payrolls, against a June print of just 57k. (v) Wed 8/12, 8:30 — July CPI, the only release before 16 September with the standing to move the card by more than 10 points on its own. Against that, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said she is content at 3.50-3.75%: "I think we need... policy that's mildly restrictive, and I think policy has been mildly restrictive to get underlying inflation back down to 2% in an acceptable time period. I need to see progress from here." Bloomberg notes more officials have expressed support for a hike as the Iran war and the AI capex boom fuel inflation worries — so the committee is genuinely split, and the futures distribution is describing that split rather than mispricing it.
| Base case and tails. Modal path: one 25 bp hike, delivered September (58.4% CME) or October (cumulative 68.4%), with year-end 2026 at 3.75-4.00% (44.6%) and a peak of 4.07% around July 2027. Upside tail: a firm payroll on 8/7 followed by a firm CPI on 8/12 puts the December 4.00-4.25% bucket back above 40% (36.4% a week ago) and takes the 30-year through 5.30%. Downside tail: a payroll below ~50k with a soft services ISM takes the September hold above 60% and would be the first genuine test of whether this equity tape is long duration or long growth. What is not a tail: a cut. Zero percent at every 2026 meeting, for the twelfth consecutive session. Practical implication: the trade this sets up is the 2s30s steepener, not a directional front-end position. The front end has already done 17.6 points of dovish repricing in five sessions while 2s30s has steepened 15 bp — you are paid to own the divergence both markets are already expressing rather than to bet on which one is wrong. Fund it into Friday's payroll: a hot print re-hikes the front end and hurts the steepener's front leg, but the same print raises the long end more, which is why the structure survives both tails better than a naked long or short. Invalidation: 2s30s back below +85 bp, which would mean the long end has stopped demanding term premium and the whole configuration in §9 has resolved the benign way. |
(a) IG and HY credit spreads
FRED publishes the ICE BofA OAS series with a one-business-day lag. The table below is as of Monday 3 August 2026 — it is not a same-day mark. Same-day direction is cross-checked beneath the table. Colour convention: credit spreads widening = red, tightening = green.
| Series | Level (3 Aug) | 1-day chg | 1-week chg | YTD chg | Basis | | IG — ICE BofA US Corporate OAS (`BAMLC0A0CM`) | 78 bp | -1 bp | -3 bp | -1 bp | vs. 79 bp on 31 Jul, 81 bp on 27 Jul, 79 bp on 31 Dec 2025 | | HY — ICE BofA US High Yield OAS (`BAMLH0A0HYM2`) | 278 bp | -7 bp | -3 bp | -3 bp | vs. 285 bp on 31 Jul, 281 bp on 27 Jul, 281 bp on 31 Dec 2025 | | CCC & lower OAS (`BAMLH0A3HYC`) | 1,028 bp | -6 bp | +27 bp | +143 bp | vs. 1,034 bp on 31 Jul, 1,001 bp on 27 Jul, 885 bp on 31 Dec 2025 | | CDX IG 5y | see retrieval note | — | — | — | Six-step ladder worked; level not publicly obtainable this session | | CDX HY 5y | see retrieval note | — | — | — | Six-step ladder worked; level not publicly obtainable this session | | HYG (HY cash proxy) | $79.55 | +0.28% | — | — | 4 Aug close, 46.5m shares (Bloomberg quote page) | | LQD (IG cash proxy) | $106.76 | +0.59% | — | — | 4 Aug close, 30.1m shares (Bloomberg quote page) |
CDX retrieval note — the six-step ladder was worked and the level is not publicly obtainable this session. (1) Bloomberg in Chrome: `/markets/rates-bonds` publishes the Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices (Global Aggregate 500.32, U.S. Aggregate 2,347.81, EM USD Aggregate 1,405.20) and the sovereign 10-year grid, but no CDX quote; the Markets Wrap carried no credit-index level. (2) WSJ Market Data Bonds & Rates: Treasurys, money rates, consumer rates and a sovereign grid, no CDX. (3) ICE / S&P Global index pages: product and methodology only, levels entitlement-gated. (4) FT Markets Data / Reuters credit wraps: no 4 August CDX level in the reviewed material. (5) TradingView / Barchart / cbonds: cbonds carries CDX.NA.IG 5Y and CDX.NA.HY 5Y but masks the value behind a subscription (it renders as three asterisks in place of the level), last public reference 30/07/2026. (6) Cash-market proxy, labelled as such: HYG +0.28% at $79.55 and LQD +0.59% at $106.76. The proxy read is informative in itself — LQD outperformed HYG by 31 bp on a 7 bp duration rally, exactly what the duration differential implies, which tells you credit risk itself did not tighten on the day; the equity market's 1.79% record close bought the HY cash market nothing. Quoting conventions were held in reserve: CDX IG 5y in basis points of spread, CDX HY 5y in price points, with red/green tied to the spread direction.
The direction cross-check. The IG credit spread at 78 bp is 1 bp inside where it started the year and 3 bp tighter on the week, and the HY credit spread at 278 bp is 3 bp inside both its Friday level and its 31 December level — in a year in which the 30-year Treasury has risen to 5.18% from levels that put it near a 19-year high last week. The one series not participating is the low-quality tail: the CCC credit spread at 1,028 bp is 27 bp wider on the week and 143 bp wider year-to-date, and it printed 1,034 bp on 31 July, the widest of the year. That divergence — index credit spreads at or through their January levels while the CCC cohort is 143 bp wider — is the cleanest evidence available that credit strength is an index-level, high-quality phenomenon and not a broad reach for risk.
(b) Money-market and funding plumbing
NY Fed publishes reference rates at ~8:00 a.m. ET for the prior business day; the figures below are as of Monday 3 August 2026.
| Metric | Latest (3 Aug) | Prior (31 Jul) | Note | | SOFR | 3.65% | 3.66% | -1 bp; the month-end print has washed out | | SOFR volume | $3,055bn | $3,205bn | -$150bn from Friday's record | | SOFR 1st percentile | 3.61% | 3.60% | +1 bp | | SOFR 25th / 75th percentile | 3.63% / 3.70% | 3.64% / 3.72% | The 75th percentile fell 2 bp — the tail eased more than the median | | SOFR 99th percentile | 3.73% | 3.75% | -2 bp | | EFFR | 3.63% | 3.63% | Unchanged for a seventh consecutive session | | EFFR volume | $111bn | $108bn | — | | IORB | 3.65% | 3.65% | — | | SOFR − IORB | 0 bp | +1 bp | Back to flat — repo is no longer bidding above the administered rate | | ON RRP take-up (`RRPONTSYD`) | $2.251bn (4 Aug) | $2.127bn (3 Aug) | Effectively empty; not a floor at these balances | | Reserve balances (`WRESBAL`, week avg) | $2.985tn (w/e 29 Jul) | $3.062tn (w/e 22 Jul) | -$77bn; down $158bn from the 15 July peak of $3.143tn | | Standing Repo Facility | No usage reported | — | Reviewed NY Fed material showed none | | Fed funds target range | 3.50-3.75% | 3.50-3.75% | WSJ Money Rates confirms; unchanged all year | | 30-year fixed mortgage (WSJ, 8/3) | 6.74% | 6.76% w/w | -2 bp; jumbo 6.87%, +11 bp w/w |
The month-end pressure is gone and the quarter-end is seven weeks away. Friday's $3.205tn SOFR volume was a record and carried a +1 bp SOFR-IORB spread and a 3.75% 99th percentile; Monday both normalised — SOFR back at IORB, the 99th percentile down 2 bp, volume down $150bn. Monday's report argued that the 8 bp cheapening in the 3-month bill was a financing artefact rather than a policy signal; §6 shows the bill retraced 2 bp on Tuesday and the funding data confirm why. The one metric not normalising is reserves: $2.985tn is the first sub-$3tn weekly average since early July and $158bn below the 15 July peak. With ON RRP effectively at zero ($2.25bn), there is no buffer between falling reserves and repo rates — this is the number to watch into the September quarter-end, not August.
(c) Rates volatility and swap spreads
| Metric | Level | Change | Vintage | | MOVE index | 80.48 | -3.06% on the day (from 83.02); +4.24% on the week; +23.06% on the month | 3 Aug 2026 — the Investing.com series is delayed and has not published a 4 August print | | VIX | 16.50 | +4.04% | 4 Aug 2026 close | | MOVE / VIX | 4.88x | — | Pairs a 3 Aug MOVE with a 4 Aug VIX — stated because the dates differ | | 2y / 10y / 30y swap spreads | No reliable data available at this time | — | Neither Bloomberg's public rates page, WSJ Market Data nor the reviewed vendor boards published a swap-spread series for 4 August |
MOVE fell 3.1% on Monday and is still up 23.1% on the month; VIX rose 4.0% on Tuesday and is down 9.4% on the week. The two move in opposite directions on a one-day basis and the same direction on a one-month basis — and the one-month basis is the one that matters. Rates volatility has re-accelerated by nearly a quarter in a month while equity volatility sits on a 16 handle. The Investing.com MOVE card also publishes an internally inconsistent "Prev. Close" of 95.74 against a 52-week range of 55.77-115.02 and an intraday range of 80.48-83.02; that field is withheld here rather than quoted. Goldman's Lee Coppersmith remains the frame: "Treasury volatility has started to re-accelerate, real yields remain near cycle highs, and historically that's not an environment where equity volatility stays structurally compressed." Tuesday's tape — a record equity close with VIX up 4% — is the first session in this run where the equity vol market started to agree with him.
(d) Issuance, leveraged loans and private credit
| • | IG primary remains on pace to challenge all-time monthly issuance records, driven in July by the Big Six banks post-earnings; gross IG supply is projected above $2tn for 2026 against $1.7tn in 2025. |
| • | HY primary supply ran roughly $5.7bn in the most recent reported week, opening on stable footing before sentiment softened on rate volatility and data-centre supply concerns — now a live theme rather than a forecast given the Abbott moratorium (§2). |
| • | Six of the largest hyperscalers have issued more than $150bn of publicly traded debt so far in 2026, with more expected. This is the largest structural change in the IG index's composition this cycle, and it is what makes the Texas interconnection audit a credit story as well as an equity story. |
| • | Named private-credit and single-name watch items. Jefferies has been told that some of the invoices underpinning its financing to iron-ore trader Sapphire Minmetals Corp. are not genuine (Bloomberg) — the second invoice-integrity episode at a major dealer's financing book this year, and precisely the kind of item that shows up in the CCC cohort before the index. Whale Rock fell 22% (Bloomberg); a levered AI fund was force-liquidated to meet lender redemptions, with the book reportedly sold to a larger firm last week (WSJ). Cerberus is seeking $4bn for a second supply-chain fund (Bloomberg). |
| • | Morningstar LSTA leveraged loan index: No reliable data available at this time — the level was not published in any reviewed source for 4 August. Bank CDS falls under the CDX retrieval gap documented above. |
| Take — the credit-spread-versus-equity-vol divergence, and what would break it. The configuration to flag is now fully assembled, and Tuesday added the missing piece. IG credit spreads at 78 bp are through where they started the year. HY credit spreads at 278 bp are 3 bp inside their December level. The 30-year Treasury is 9 bp higher on the week and the 20-year 7 bp higher (§6). The front end has priced out 17.6 points of September hike probability in five sessions (§8). Reserve balances have fallen $158bn in three weeks with ON RRP empty. MOVE is up 23% on the month. And equity volatility spent the entire run on a 15-16 handle — until Tuesday, when the S&P made a record high and VIX rose 4.04%. Mechanically: tight index credit spreads against a steepening long end are internally consistent only if you believe the corporate sector can grow into a permanently higher risk-free rate, and the CCC credit spread — 143 bp wider year-to-date while the IG credit spread is 1 bp tighter — says the market has already decided only the top of the capital structure can. What would break it, in order of likelihood. (i) A firm payroll Friday followed by a firm CPI on 12 August, which takes the December 4.00-4.25% bucket back above 40%, the 30-year through 5.30%, and forces IG credit spreads wider not on credit deterioration but on discount-rate arithmetic — the mechanical channel, and the one nobody hedges. (ii) A data-centre credit event: with $150bn of hyperscaler IG paper issued in 2026 and a state regulator now auditing interconnection queues, the AI capex complex is a genuine IG index concentration. NRG -15.48% and Vistra -8.15% is the equity market marking that risk; the IG credit spread at 78 bp is not. (iii) Reserves — $2.985tn with an empty RRP leaves no buffer into the September quarter-end. (iv) The tail migrating up — the CCC credit spread printed 1,034 bp on 31 July, the widest of 2026; a move through 1,100 bp with HY still inside 300 bp would be the classic pre-widening sequence. The signal to watch is not the IG credit spread itself — it is the CCC-minus-HY differential, currently 750 bp against 604 bp at the start of the year. That gap has done all the work of pricing the cycle while the index has priced none of it. |
| 10 · FX — Levels and Moves (TradingEconomics board, U.S. evening; spot) |
Quote basis: all pairs are spot. A positive %Chg on a USD/XXX pair means the dollar strengthened; on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD it means the dollar weakened. USD/JPY, USD/CAD and DXY carried a rolling intraday stamp rather than an Aug/04 daily stamp at the time of the pull and may differ from a 4 p.m. New York mark on timing alone.
| Pair | Level | %Chg (1d) | Weekly | YTD | Note | | DXY | 99.871 | -0.03% | -1.64% | +1.57% | A fourth straight close within a rounding error of 100. Bloomberg: the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed | | EUR/USD | 1.15309 | +0.19% | +1.26% | -1.79% | Bloomberg 4 p.m.: +0.2% to $1.1532 — agrees to the fourth decimal | | USD/JPY | 157.714 | +0.34% | -3.73% | +0.63% | Yen weaker. Bloomberg: yen -0.4% to 157.74. The yen is still 3.7% stronger on the week post-intervention | | GBP/USD | 1.34506 | +0.13% | +1.21% | -0.07% | Bloomberg 4 p.m.: +0.1% to $1.3452 | | USD/CHF | 0.80897 | -0.17% | -1.25% | +2.03% | The franc bid on a record-equity day — the haven that would not sell | | AUD/USD | 0.70466 | +0.66% | +1.03% | +5.60% | The day's biggest G10 move — the commodity-import currency on a 5.7% crude decline | | USD/CAD | 1.40643 | +0.13% | -0.32% | +2.49% | The petro-currency weakened, as it should on a crude collapse | | USD/CNY | 6.74814 | -0.15% | -0.34% | -3.27% | Yuan firmer; CSI 300 +1%+ | | USD/KRW | 1,429.82 | +0.03% | -1.60% | -0.75% | Flat on a Kospi +1.62% / Kosdaq +5.80% day | | USD/TWD | 32.4090 | 0.00% | +0.11% | +3.38% | Unchanged on a SOX +6.55% day with TSMC's ADR +2.72% | | USD/SGD | 1.28172 | -0.05% | -0.81% | -0.35% | — | | USD/INR | 95.1050 | -0.24% | -0.52% | +5.82% | — | | USD/MXN | 17.2570 | -0.41% | -1.00% | -4.23% | Peso firm; risk-on plus cheaper crude is not usually a peso-positive combination | | USD/BRL | 5.12320 | +0.40% | -0.25% | -7.13% | The weakest EM major on the day; Bovespa -0.06%, the only red major index in the Americas |
| The take — three crosses are saying the same thing, and it is not what the equity tape is saying. First, the Asian FX complex is completely disconnected from Asian tech beta. USD/TWD moved exactly zero on a session in which the SOX rose 6.55% and TSMC's ADR rose 2.72%; USD/KRW moved three-hundredths of a percent on a session in which the Kospi rose 1.62% and the Kosdaq 5.80%. Over four sessions Korea has printed a record +17.9%, a -5.12% and a +1.62%, and the won has been weaker, stronger and flat in exactly the wrong order for a foreign-inflow story. The marginal buyer of Asian semiconductors is domestic and levered, not a foreign portfolio flow that must buy the currency. Second, the Swiss franc rallied 0.17% against the dollar on a record-high equity close. A haven that will not sell on the best risk day of the quarter is the FX market's version of the VIX print in §1. Third, the largest G10 move of the day was AUD/USD +0.66% — a currency whose economy imports its energy and exports the industrial metals that rallied (copper +1.60%, silver +3.18%). That is a clean, mechanical, cheap-crude trade, and it is the only major FX move on the board with an obvious fundamental story attached. Everything else was noise around a dollar index that has closed within a rounding error of 100.00 for four consecutive sessions while the 30-year Treasury yield rose 9 bp — a dollar that will not rally on a rising long end is a dollar with a fiscal problem priced into it. |
| 11 · Commodities — Settles, Changes and Drivers |
| Commodity | Settle / level | 1-day | Weekly | Monthly | YTD | Driver | | WTI crude (Sep) | $75.77 | -5.69% | — | — | — | CNBC settlement. Bloomberg $75.72 (-5.8%); TradingEconomics $75.287 (-6.29%), within 0.6% and therefore quotable. Bessent's Hormuz remarks | | Brent crude (Oct) | $79.36 | -5.26% | — | — | — | CNBC settlement; first sub-$80 print of the closure. WSJ quotes the same level at -4.41% — a prior-close basis difference. TradingEconomics $78.890 (-5.83%) | | WTI (TradingEconomics board) | $75.287 | -6.29% | -5.01% | +9.83% | +31.12% | Board basis, used only for the week/month/YTD columns | | Brent (TradingEconomics board) | $78.890 | -5.83% | -3.89% | +9.58% | +29.65% | Board basis | | Natural gas (Henry Hub) | $2.6865 | -3.40% | -0.54% | -17.21% | -27.12% | The only major commodity down on the month and the year — no war premium ever attached to it | | Gasoline (RBOB) | $2.8414 | -4.22% | -9.63% | -5.39% | +66.08% | Fell less than crude — the crack widened | | Heating oil | $3.7351 | -3.67% | -6.93% | +13.24% | +76.06% | Fell least of the whole energy complex; still +13.2% on the month | | Gold (spot) | $4,076.26 | +0.52% | +1.19% | -2.13% | -5.64% | TradingEconomics spot; Bloomberg spot $4,079.82 (+0.6%) — agreement to 0.09%. Futures boards $4,133-$4,153 | | Silver (spot) | $59.519 | +3.18% | +4.24% | -4.06% | -16.48% | Six times gold's move — the industrial leg, not the haven leg | | Copper | $6.6185 | +1.60% | +4.61% | +7.13% | +16.48% | Reflation; Freeport +5.75%, Nucor +4.88% (§3) |
Verified column order for the TradingEconomics board this session: Price | Chg | %Chg | Weekly | Monthly | YTD | YoY | Date — checked programmatically before any YTD figure was quoted.
The take — the barrel fell, the crack widened, and positioning is now the whole trade. Crude settled down 5.69% while heating oil fell only 3.67% and gasoline 4.22%. Products falling less than crude is a widening crack, and it is the mechanical explanation for the refiner/E&P split inside a -0.77% Energy sector: Marathon Petroleum +1.82%, Williams +1.53%, Halliburton +1.47% and Valero +0.39% green, against EOG -1.48%, ConocoPhillips -1.02%, Devon -1.17%, Occidental -0.69% and Diamondback -3.46%. Monday's report said that if you owned the crack, that was the day it stopped being free; Tuesday it paid again, because the second leg of the crude decline came out of the barrel and not out of the product. Heating oil is still +13.24% on the month and +76.06% year-to-date — distillate tightness is a physical condition a diplomatic headline does not fix. Expression: keep the long-crack, short-crude structure; the invalidation is a distillate build in the weekly EIA data, not another headline.
Positioning. Two consecutive 5%+ settlement declines on rhetoric, with no verified transit and a fresh attack on a cargo vessel off Oman on the same day (WSJ), is a market with length being liquidated rather than a market repricing supply. WTI is still +31.12% year-to-date and Brent +29.65% — a 10.4% two-day fall has retraced roughly a fifth of the year's move, so the war premium is being trimmed, not removed. Express the de-escalation through options, not futures.
Basis caveats. (i) Contract month: WTI is the September contract and Brent the October contract; the quoted figures are exchange settlements, not evening screen prints. (ii) Spot versus futures in gold: this table quotes spot at $4,076.26 (TradingEconomics), corroborated by Bloomberg spot at $4,079.82. The Bloomberg /markets board shows $4,152.60 (+1.52%) and WSJ's article $4,095.40 (+1.53%) — futures and a different intraday mark; the 1.4-1.9% gap is carry basis plus timing, not a level dispute. (iii) TradingEconomics crude was checked against Bloomberg before quoting: the board's $75.287 is 0.57% below Bloomberg's $75.72 settlement, inside the ~1% withholding threshold, so the board supplies only the week/month/YTD columns. (iv) Bloomberg's board crude line of $75.14 (+0.83%) is an overnight print, not the settlement, and is not used. | 12 · Trading Views (desk-style; not personalized investment advice) |
These are illustrative institutional expressions, not recommendations. Claude is not a licensed financial advisor. Position sizing, suitability and risk limits are the reader's own. Verify every level independently before acting.
| • | 1. Long the 2s30s steepener into payrolls. Expression: receive 2-year, pay 30-year, DV01-neutral. Rationale: the front end has priced out 17.6 points of September hike probability in five sessions (§8) while the 30-year has risen 9 bp and 2s30s has steepened 15 bp over the identical window (§6). Both markets already express the divergence; you are paid to own it rather than to bet on which is wrong. Catalyst: payrolls Fri 8/7 8:30; CPI Wed 8/12 8:30. Invalidation: 2s30s back below +85 bp. Sizing: full risk — the highest-conviction structure in the report, and it survives both payroll tails. |
| • | 2. Long equal-weight / SOX against cap-weighted S&P 500. Expression: long RSP or SOX exposure, short SPX, beta-adjusted. Rationale: the index made a record high while Meta -0.43%, Amazon -2.36%, Netflix +0.33%, Disney +0.04%, Microsoft +0.99% and Alphabet +1.13% all underperformed it (§2) and the SOX rose 6.55%. This is a rotation inside the AI trade, from platform owners to picks-and-shovels. Catalyst: SanDisk and Western Digital, Wed 8/5 AMC; Applied Materials, Thu 8/13 AMC. Invalidation: a session where the Mag-7 lead and the SOX lags. Sizing: two-thirds — AMD's after-hours -8% on a beat-and-raise is a live warning that the bar is above the print. |
| • | 3. Long the distillate crack, short crude. Expression: long heating-oil futures against short WTI on a 1:1 barrel basis. Rationale: crude settled -5.69% while heating oil fell only -3.67% and gasoline -4.22%; the second leg of the decline came out of the barrel, not the product. Heating oil is +13.24% on the month and +76.06% YTD on physical tightness a diplomatic headline does not fix. Catalyst: weekly EIA inventory data; any verified Hormuz transit. Invalidation: a distillate build in the EIA data — not another headline. Sizing: half — this trade has already paid twice this week. |
| • | 4. Fade rallies in ERCOT-levered merchant power. Expression: short NRG and Vistra against a long regulated-utility basket, dollar-neutral. Rationale: Abbott's halt to new Texas data-centre interconnection approvals repriced the option value embedded in the interconnection queue — NRG -15.48%, Vistra -8.15% on the best day of the year for AI hardware (§2). A policy de-rating with no earnings offset. Catalyst: Constellation Energy Thu 8/6 7:05 a.m.; Vistra Fri 8/7 before open. Invalidation: a defined, short audit window with grandfathering of pending requests. Sizing: half — headline risk is two-sided. |
| • | 5. Own upside in options rather than in cash. Expression: replace outright index length with call spreads in the front expiry. Rationale: VIX rose 4.04% to 16.50 on a record close — the vol market is bidding for protection into payrolls and CPI even as spot makes highs. Buying the move in cash means paying full price for a tape whose own volatility market says the distribution has widened. Catalyst: payrolls 8/7 and CPI 8/12, both inside the front expiry. Invalidation: VIX back below 15 with the index holding highs, at which point cash is cheaper than convexity. Sizing: structural, not tactical. |
| • | 6. Sell the merger-arb spread; do not buy either leg. Expression: unchanged from Monday — the AstraZeneca/Bristol Myers spread remains a sell rather than a long-arb entry. BMY closed +0.65% at $65.90 on Tuesday, still below Monday's $68.10 intraday high. Catalyst: any confirmation or denial from either board. Invalidation: a signed agreement with a stated exchange ratio. Sizing: quarter. |
| A note on volatility positioning. VIX at 16.50, +4.04%, on the day the S&P 500 set a record close is the single most important positioning datum in this report. In the prior three sessions the index rose roughly 4% cumulatively and VIX fell; on Tuesday it rose 1.79% and VIX rose 64 cents. The mechanism is straightforward — two binary macro events (payrolls 8/7, CPI 8/12) sit inside the front expiry, and the after-hours reactions to AMD (-8% on a beat) and SpaceX (-7%) show that single-name event risk is being repriced upward at the same time. MOVE, at 80.48 as of 3 August, is up 23.06% on the month against a VIX down 9.39% on the week (§9). Do not sell volatility here. If the equity view is bullish — and the breadth data support it — express it long gamma. |
| 13 · Risk Map (next 5 sessions) |
Crowded consensuses to stress-test, with the numbers
| • | 1. "The Hormuz deal is done." It is not. Bessent said there is "a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow"; Qatar says a proposal has been drafted; Tehran is considering letting European navies clear mines; and a cargo vessel off Oman was attacked the same day (WSJ). Crude has fallen 10.4% in two sessions on rhetoric alone, with no verified transit. The toll question is unresolved. Stress test: WTI back above $85 on a single failed-talks headline is a 12% move from Tuesday's settle, and it would take the September hike card straight back through 70%. |
| • | 2. "Earnings have already de-risked the tape." 84% of reported S&P 500 companies have beaten (FactSet), semiconductor profits are +144% y/y (LSEG) and energy earnings +120% y/y (WSJ) — and yet AMD fell 8% after hours on a beat-and-raise, SK Hynix fell 8.7% after a 13-fold profit increase, and Caterpillar gave back 6.28% from its high after a 32% EPS beat. The binding constraint is the bar, not the number. |
| • | 3. "The rally is broad." The breadth statistics say yes — advancers led 3,244 to 1,099 on Nasdaq and 1,785 to 879 on the NYSE, with advancing volume near 80% and 70% (FactSet). The megacap tape says no — five of the seven largest S&P names underperformed a +1.79% index day, and Amazon fell 2.36%. And the volume says be careful: Nasdaq turnover was only ~85% of its 30-day average and the NYSE under 72% by 3 p.m. A record close on 72% of normal NYSE volume is not the same event as a record close on 120%. |
| • | 4. "Credit is confirming." IG credit spreads at 78 bp are 1 bp inside their 31 December level and HY at 278 bp is 3 bp inside — while the CCC credit spread is 143 bp wider year-to-date and the 30-year Treasury is 9 bp higher on the week. The CCC-minus-HY differential has widened from 604 bp to 750 bp this year. Index credit is confirming; the tail is not, and the tail moves first. |
| • | 5. "Lower oil is unambiguously disinflationary." Wells Fargo's Tony Miano put the limit on it: energy pressures may ease, "but broader prices could remain sticky in the near term, limiting how far Treasury yields move lower." Manufacturing prices paid at 71.1 is still deeply expansionary, and Wednesday's ISM services prices-paid is the first place services-side stickiness would show. |
| The two-sided geopolitical tape. Bullish: a drafted Qatari proposal, mine-clearing under consideration, Bessent's "freedom of movement," hundreds of ships waiting to exit the Gulf. Bearish: Tehran's repeated denials that negotiations exist, the unresolved toll demand, the Oman-adjacent vessel attack, and the fact that Trump called this Iran's "last chance" — a framing that implies a military alternative if the window closes. Separately, the US revoked the Brazilian ambassador's visa amid a diplomatic spat (Bloomberg), and Bovespa was the only red major index in the Americas at -0.06%. |
Structural watch items
| • | (i) The Texas data-centre interconnection audit — a state regulator has just become a swing factor in an IG index that has absorbed $150bn of hyperscaler paper this year. |
| • | (ii) Reserve balances at $2.985tn with ON RRP at $2.25bn — no buffer left ahead of the September quarter-end. |
| • | (iii) The Fed transition — Chair Warsh, three dissents for a hike in July, and Philadelphia's Paulson publicly content at 3.50-3.75%; the committee is genuinely split and the futures distribution is describing that split rather than mispricing it. |
| • | (iv) Leverage — retail net sold more than $6bn of tech last week, the most since at least 2019 (Citadel Securities), a levered AI fund was force-liquidated, and Whale Rock is down 22%. Deleveraging that is complete is bullish; deleveraging that is ongoing is the opposite, and one week of data cannot distinguish them. |
| • | (v) The Jefferies/Sapphire Minmetals invoice matter — small in isolation, and exactly the shape of the thing that is never small in isolation twice. |
| What VIX is and is not pricing. VIX 16.50 (+4.04%), range 15.51-16.65, on a record close. It is pricing roughly a 1.0% daily move in the S&P 500 — enough for payrolls and CPI on a normal distribution and nowhere near enough for the tails enumerated above. What it is pricing: two binary macro prints inside the front expiry, and elevated single-name event risk (AMD -8% and SpaceX -7% after hours on the same evening). What it is not pricing: a failed-Hormuz reversal that takes crude 12% higher, a data-centre credit event, or a September hike put back on the table by a hot payroll-hot CPI sequence. The encouraging part is that, for the first time in this run, the equity vol market moved in the direction of those risks rather than away from them — MOVE has been up 23% on the month while VIX slept, and on Tuesday VIX finally blinked. |
Source Links and the full Data Notes & Conflicts section are in the companion plain-text file US_CrossAsset_Daily_2026-08-04_DataNotes.txt.
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