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U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Opening Daily
Wednesday, August 5, 2026 — Pre-Open Briefing | Data as of ~7:45 AM ET · news window Tue 4:00 PM ET → Wed 7:45 AM ET
Prepared for Institutional Investors. Not Personalized Investment Advice; Verify Independently before Acting. | Source Links and Data Notes & Conflicts provided in the companion text file (US_CrossAsset_Opening_2026-08-05_DataNotes.txt). |
1 · Pre-Open Dashboard |
| Equity futures (Sep contracts) and the fair-value implied cash open |
| Instrument | Level | Chg (pts) | %Chg | Implied cash open | | S&P 500 (ESU6) | 7,796.00 | +30.50 | +0.39% | +15.48 → 7,752.00 (FV 15.02) | | Nasdaq-100 (NQU6) | 29,910.75 | +47.25 | +0.16% | −32.41 → 29,700.75 (FV 79.66) | | Dow (YMU6) | 54,468 | +200 | +0.37% | +162.12 → 54,248.00 (FV 37.88) | | Russell 2000 (RTYU6) | 3,050 | +5.30 | +0.17% | −1.97 → 3,035.01 (FV 7.28) |
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| Arithmetic check. ES +30.50 on a 7,765.50 prior settle = +0.393%. The ranking is ES > YM > RTY > NQ, and the fair-value-adjusted opens carry the story: the S&P is indicated +15 points while the Nasdaq-100 is indicated −32 — the index that closed +3.32% yesterday is still the one indicated lower. The live tell is the direction of travel: at 6:54 AM the Nasdaq-100 was indicated −80.16, at 7:31 AM −32.41. The semiconductor gap is being bought back into the open, and it has halved in thirty-seven minutes. |
| Prior cash closes — Tuesday, August 4 (the anchor for every delta below) |
| Index | Close | Chg | %Chg | Note | | S&P 500 | 7,736.52 | +136.03 | +1.79% | Record close | | Nasdaq Composite | 26,584.99 | +671.09 | +2.59% | Four-session gain 8.8% | | Nasdaq-100 | 29,733.16 | +956.36 | +3.32% | 3.35% below the 30,762.20 record | | Dow Jones Industrials | 54,085.88 | +907.47 | +1.71% | Second straight record | | Russell 2000 | 3,036.98 | +55.07 | +1.85% | CNBC index close basis | | PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) | 12,179.26 | +748.91 | +6.55% | Best four-day run since 2020 | | VIX | 16.50 | +0.64 | +4.04% | Vol rose on a record equity close |
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| Volatility, rates, FX, commodities and crypto |
| Measure | Level | Chg / %Chg | Measure | Level | Chg / %Chg | | VIX (live pre-open) | 16.66 | +0.16 / +0.97% | DXY | 99.686 | −0.17% | | VXN (Aug 4 close) | 25.48 | +0.71 / +2.87% | EUR/USD | 1.1554 | +0.22% | | OVX crude vol (Aug 4 close) | 53.45 | −3.75 / −6.56% | USD/JPY | 157.53 | −0.12% | | UST 2Y (8/4 par 4.20%) | 4.202% | +0.2 bp | WTI (Sep) | $76.13 | +0.48% | | UST 5Y (4.33%) | 4.326% | −0.4 bp | Brent (Oct) | $80.39 | +1.30% | | UST 10Y (4.63%) | 4.607% | −2.3 bp | Gold (Dec) | $4,239.00 | +2.08% | | UST 30Y (5.18%) | 5.160% | −2.0 bp | Silver (Sep) | $62.06 | +3.01% | | UST 3M (3.89% par) | 3.823% | bill basis — §6 | Copper (Sep) | $6.6445 | +0.02% | | Bitcoin | $64,285 | −0.31% | NatGas (Sep) | $2.699 | +0.63% |
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| Read the vol row carefully — only VIX has a live pre-open print. CNBC flags VXN and OVX as delayed, so those figures are Tuesday's closes, not this morning's marks. On Tuesday's record equity close VIX rose 4.04% and VXN 2.87% while OVX fell 6.56% on a 5.7% crude decline — equity vol bid into strength, crude vol sold as the war premium came out. This morning VIX is a further +0.97% at 16.66 with equity futures higher, which is the fifth consecutive session of vol rising into a rallying tape. In rates the overnight move has extended slightly since 7:00 AM: 2Y +0.2 bp, 10Y −2.3 bp, 30Y −2.0 bp versus the official par close — still a bull-flattener, still tiny. Gold has accelerated to +2.08% and silver to +3.01% with the dollar only 0.17% lower, and copper is flat against a $6.70 52-week high. |
| Global equities overnight |
| Market | Level | %Chg | Market | Level | %Chg | | Nikkei 225 | 66,300.44 | +3.66% | Shanghai Comp | 3,878.43 | +1.47% | | Topix | 4,046.17 | +2.13% | ASX 200 | 9,227.80 | +0.90% | | Kospi | 6,598.26 | +3.76% | Stoxx 600 (live) | 657.05 | +0.03% | | Taiwan TAIEX | 44,611.60 | +2.88% | DAX (live) | 26,227.89 | +0.10% | | Hang Seng | 25,915.82 | +0.24% | CAC 40 (live) | 8,663.39 | −0.04% | | HSCEI | 8,603.73 | +0.34% | FTSE 100 (live) | 10,856.78 | −0.21% |
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| Sources: CNBC pre-markets board (stamped 6:54 AM EDT) and CNBC real-time quote service; Bloomberg (US Edition) /markets, /markets/rates-bonds, /markets/currencies, /markets/commodities, /economics (boards stamped 7:03–7:05 AM EDT); WSJ Markets & Finance, Economy, World, Business, Tech and U.S. plus the WSJ market-data header board; Treasury.gov Daily Par Yield Curve (Text View, Aug and Jul 2026); TreasuryDirect Upcoming Auctions; Federal Reserve Board August 2026 calendar; Reuters / Investing.com / StreetInsider / Benzinga for single-name earnings detail. |
| The overnight in one paragraph. The rotation that produced yesterday's record close reversed inside twelve hours, and the last forty minutes have been the market changing its mind about how much of the reversal it means. The S&P is indicated +15 points to 7,752.00 while the Nasdaq-100 is indicated −32 points to 29,700.75 — but at 6:54 AM that Nasdaq indication was −80.16, so the semiconductor gap has halved into the open. The complex is still offered — AMD −7.87% at $477.77 (from −8.94% after hours), Intel −2.34%, Arm −2.20%, SanDisk −1.09%, Micron −0.97%, Marvell −0.96%, Qualcomm −0.89%, KLA −0.74%, Lam −0.70%, Broadcom −0.41% — but every one of those is better than it was at 7:10, and Nvidia is +1.91%. The megacaps are bid (Meta +1.36%, Alphabet +1.10%, Amazon +0.75%), the mirror image of Tuesday. The index points are coming from pharma, media and travel: Eli Lilly +4.87% on a 39% EPS beat and a full-year revenue guide raised to $85–87bn; Booking +7.94%; Zimmer Biomet +5.42% on a raised buyback; Disney +3.43% on $2.06 versus $1.86; CVS +3.33% on a raised guide; Arista +12.23% on a first-ever $3bn quarter. Two casualties are severe and specific: CDW is −25.00% at $115.50, having been −6.65% an hour earlier, and Insulet −11.88%. Asia melted up on yesterday's U.S. tape — Nikkei +3.66% to a record 66,300.44 on SoftBank +13.96%, Kospi +3.76%, TAIEX +2.88%, with USD/JPY moving just 0.12% — while Europe has gone nowhere (Stoxx 600 +0.03%, FTSE −0.21%) and rates have barely moved: 2Y +0.2 bp, 10Y −2.3 bp, 30Y −2.0 bp against the official par close. Crude has bounced — Brent +1.30% to $80.39, WTI +0.48% to $76.13 — after a cargo ship reported being struck in the Strait of Hormuz, even as Qatar calls draft agreements “in very progressive stages.” Gold is +2.08% to $4,239.00 and silver +3.01% with the dollar down only 0.17% — a real-rate bid, not a dollar move. What this hands the 9:30 open is a two-speed tape that is already converging: buy-the-index, sell-the-semis, but with the semis leg being covered into the bell, an 8:15 ADP print and a 10:00 ISM services print on top of it, and a Treasury quarterly refunding announcement today that sizes next week's 3Y, 10Y and 30Y auctions. |
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2 · Overnight Hot Spots — ranked by tradability at today's open |
| 1. The dispersion trade flipped overnight — and it has already half-unflipped since 6:54 AM. [Equities] Yesterday: SOX +6.55%, NDX +3.32%, with five of the seven largest names underperforming a +1.79% index. This morning both legs reversed, and then partly reversed back. The Nasdaq-100 implied open was −80.16 at 6:54 AM and is −32.41 at 7:31 AM, against an S&P implied open of +15.48. Every semiconductor print has improved with it: AMD from −8.74% to −7.87%, Micron from −1.76% to −0.97%, SanDisk from −1.72% to −1.09%, Western Digital from −0.94% to −0.49%, Broadcom from −0.63% to −0.41%, with Nvidia now +1.91% and Skyworks turning green. The megacaps stayed bid throughout (META +1.36%, GOOGL +1.10%, AMZN +0.75%). Forward hook: this is a covering tape, not a capitulation tape. Confirmation of the reversal-of-the-reversal is SOX reclaiming 12,179 in the first hour; invalidation is the Nasdaq indication widening back through −60 into the auction, which would say the 7:00 AM bounce was thin pre-market liquidity rather than demand. | | 2. AMD beat on revenue, profit and guidance and is down 8.74% — the bar, not the number, is the binding constraint. [Equities] Adjusted EPS $1.66 vs $1.60; revenue $11.54bn vs $11.25bn, +50% y/y; data-centre revenue $6.7bn, +107% y/y. The stock rose 7.00% to $518.58 into the print and is $477.77 pre-market, −7.87% — a 14.9-point round trip in eighteen hours. The explanation is Helios, the rack-scale AI platform: AMD cleared the sell-side's numbers and missed the buy-side's. Second-order tell: the after-hours low was ~−8.94%, the 7:10 AM pre-market print −8.74% and the 7:43 AM print −7.87% — a dip-buying drift has started, but it has recovered barely one point of a nine-point gap in ninety minutes. Forward hook: $477 is the level; a close back above $500 says the complex absorbed it, a break of $460 makes Tuesday's 6.55% SOX day a one-day event. | | 3. Eli Lilly is the largest single index-point contributor at the open, and the guide is why. [Equities] Adjusted EPS $8.38 vs $6.01 expected (LSEG); revenue $22.97bn vs $20.73bn — a 10.8% revenue beat and a 39% EPS beat. U.S. revenue +33% to $14.4bn on a 37% volume increase, partly offset by lower realised price. Full-year revenue guidance raised to $85–87bn from $82–85bn; full-year adjusted EPS $35.50–36.50. The blemish the bears will trade: Foundayo, the oral obesity pill approved in April, did $98m against a ~$103m FactSet estimate in its first reported quarter. LLY is +4.87% at $1,170.00, having printed $1,187.03 (+6.40%) an hour earlier — a 1.5-point fade already under way. Novo Nordisk raised its own full-year guide, and its ADR is only +0.34%, while European reporting describes the Copenhagen line falling on the print: the category is not being bought, Lilly is taking share within it. Forward hook: watch whether Healthcare — the worst group over the trailing five sessions at −2.96% — converts this into a sector move or leaves it idiosyncratic. | | 4. Crude bounced on a shipping attack while crude volatility collapsed 6.6% — the options market is not buying the escalation. [Commodities / Equities] Brent October +1.30% to $80.39; WTI September +0.48% to $76.13, after a two-session decline of roughly 10.4% on Bessent's “we are in talks with the Iranians.” Overnight a cargo ship reported being struck in the Strait of Hormuz and Bloomberg's wrap leads “Stock Rally Wavers as Oil Rises on Shipping Threat.” Against that, Qatar says drafts are “in very progressive stages” and Rubio described “progress made … but not finality”. The tell is that crude volatility was sold hard into Tuesday's decline — OVX −6.56% to 53.45 — and CNBC publishes no live pre-open OVX print this morning, so the war premium that came out of the vol surface yesterday has not visibly been put back on today. Forward hook: Energy closed −0.49% on a 5.7% crude decline (beta ~0.09); if crude holds +1.5% and Energy still cannot outperform, the sector has fully de-rated the war premium. Invalidation is a named-operator vessel casualty, not a “reports being struck” headline. | | 5. Arista's first $3bn quarter is the AI-networking print that AMD wasn't. [Equities] EPS $1.02 vs $0.88; revenue $3.04bn vs $2.83bn, +37.7% y/y; Q3 guided to $3.30bn and $1.06–1.08 against $2.95bn and $0.92 — a 16% premium to the Street at the midpoint; full-year raised to ~$12.6bn, implying 40% growth, the third raise this year. ANET +12.23% to $213.80, holding the entire after-hours move. On the same night, in the same capex chain, AMD sold off on a beat while Arista rallied on one — the difference is that Arista's raise was in the guide, not the print. It also directly contradicts the “capex is peaking” thesis that took the SOX 17% off its 22 June high. Forward hook: ANET holding +10% into the close while AMD stays −8% says the AI trade is now connectivity and power, not compute silicon — that is a pair, not a beta call. | | 6. SpaceX is down another 11% pre-market after an 8% after-hours fall — the fade extended, then stopped. [Equities] First report since the June IPO: revenue +92% y/y; Starlink subscribers doubled in twelve months; Q2 capital expenditure $18.4bn against a $13.22bn average estimate, of which WSJ reports $15.8bn went to AI. Musk said revenue could eventually reach $1 trillion. The stock closed +9.43% at $125.33 and is $111.70, −10.88% — a 20.3-point round trip. WSJ reports telecom stocks slipped after SpaceX took aim at their market share. Forward hook: an 11% gap in a name retail has net-bought every session since the IPO (VandaTrack) is the first real test of that bid. | | 7. Michael Burry published a short book against exactly this tape on the day it made a record high. [Equities] In a Substack post titled “Trading Post August 4, 2026 — My Options,” Burry wrote: “we are near a major top, and possible a 1987-type fall,” disclosing shorts in SOXX, Micron, Nvidia, Caterpillar, Palantir, Tesla and Applied Materials — the seven names that drove Tuesday's session. His mechanism matters more than the call: “the market going up on falling volatility forces vol-targeting funds to leverage up.” The number that argues against his own mechanism is that VIX rose 4.04% on Tuesday's record close and is a further +0.97% this morning — the falling-vol condition is not present. Forward hook: the list is now public and crowded on the other side; a squeeze in PLTR/MU/CAT on any strength is the second-order trade. Bloomberg reports Palantir short sellers took a $3bn hit on Tuesday. | | 8. CDW is down 25% and the print is ninety minutes old — the enterprise-IT read-across is the morning's most under-covered item. [Equities] CDW −25.00% at $115.50, against a $154.00 close that was itself +4.27% on Tuesday. The deterioration happened inside the pre-market session: the stock was −6.65% at 7:10 AM and −25.00% at 7:43 AM, which is the signature of a guidance disclosure being read rather than a headline being traded. Context: CDW fell 20.3% on its Q1 print in May when adjusted EPS of $2.28 missed, so this is a second consecutive violent reaction in a name the Street models at $2.65–2.80. Why it matters beyond the ticker: CDW is the largest listed reseller of enterprise IT hardware and software in the U.S. — it is a demand gauge for exactly the corporate spend the semiconductor complex is arguing about. A distributor guiding down on the same morning AMD sells off on a triple beat is corroboration, not coincidence. Forward hook: watch Insight Enterprises, Connection and the enterprise-hardware OEMs at the open; if they gap with CDW, the read is sector-wide and the semis bounce is a fade. |
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3 · Global Markets Overnight — Asia & Europe |
| Asia closes |
| Index | Close | %Chg | Catalyst | | Nikkei 225 | 66,300.44 | +3.66% | Record close. SoftBank Group +13.96% on results and an AI/cloud outlook; Nasdaq's four-day $3.5tn gain (Bloomberg) did the rest | | Topix | 4,046.17 | +2.13% | Half the Nikkei's move — a 1.53-point dispersion in favour of the price-weighted index says this was SoftBank, not Japan | | Kospi | 6,598.26 | +3.76% | The region's best major index; SK Hynix and the memory complex led | | Taiwan TAIEX | 44,611.60 | +2.88% | Direct SOX beta | | Hang Seng | 25,915.82 | +0.24% | The laggard. No participation in the semis melt-up | | HSCEI | 8,603.73 | +0.34% | Same | | Shanghai Composite | 3,878.43 | +1.47% | Mainland beat Hong Kong by 1.2 points — a domestic-flow tape | | ASX 200 | 9,227.80 | +0.90% | Cheap-crude beneficiary, second session running | | Nifty 50 | 24,624.65 | +0.04% | Flat; unaffected | | Straits Times | 5,581.37 | −0.55% | The only red index in Asia |
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| The Asia read that matters: the dispersion between Kospi/TAIEX (+3.76% / +2.88%) and Hang Seng (+0.24%) is 3.5 points. The overnight bid was specifically a semiconductor bid, and Hong Kong — with no meaningful memory or foundry weight — was excluded from it. That is the same market now selling U.S. semis pre-market: Asia bought the SOX at 12,179 and the U.S. is offering it back eight hours later. Note also that a 3.7% Nikkei day moved USD/JPY 0.12% and the 10Y JGB −3 bp — the yen-funding channel is wide open and is doing none of the work. |
| Europe, live at mid-session (≈7:05 AM ET) |
| Index | Level | %Chg | Index | Level | %Chg | | Stoxx 600 | 656.29 | −0.09% | FTSE MIB | 53,662.14 | +0.23% | | Euro Stoxx 50 | 5,489.73 | −0.29% | IBEX 35 | 20,107.00 | +0.42% | | DAX | 26,182.71 | −0.07% | SMI | 14,473.78 | +0.07% | | CAC 40 | 8,663.39 | −0.04% | AEX | 1,113.41 | +0.08% | | FTSE 100 | 10,842.11 | −0.34% | | | |
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| The Stoxx 600 closed at a record 656.86 (+0.7%) on Tuesday and is up 10% year to date, lagging North America (CNBC). This morning it has clawed back to 657.05, +0.03%, with the periphery leading the core: IBEX +0.42% and FTSE MIB +0.23% against a DAX that has turned +0.10% and a FTSE still −0.21%. Corporate: Novo Nordisk raised full-year profit and sales guidance on GLP-1 demand, with the ADR +1.24% in New York; Bloomberg reports Glencore has taken a provision on its Radiant World exposure; Schaeffler is targeting 1,300 job cuts via an early-pension push. |
| Global sovereigns — 10-year yields (Bloomberg, 7:03–7:05 AM ET; JGB 3:59 AM ET) |
| Country | 10Y | 1-day | Country | 10Y | 1-day | | United States | 4.61% | −0 bp | Italy | 3.87% | +1 bp | | Germany | 3.10% | −0 bp | Spain | 3.54% | +1 bp | | United Kingdom | 4.89% | −0 bp | Japan | 2.79% | −3 bp | | France | 3.89% | +1 bp | Australia | 4.90% | −6 bp | | Canada | 3.55% | +0 bp | | | |
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| BTP–Bund spread: 77 bp, +1 bp on the day. Periphery-vs-core in equities is risk-on (IBEX and MIB green, DAX and CAC red) while periphery-vs-core in rates is marginally risk-off — a 1 bp non-event inside the calmest sovereign-risk proxy in Europe for a month. Australia's −6 bp is a domestic RBA-path move, not a global duration signal. |
| What this hands the U.S. open. Three things, in order of tradability. First, Asia bought semiconductors aggressively, Europe declined to follow, and the U.S. pre-market is now selling them — the classic signature of a move that ran out of marginal buyers in its own time zone. Second, Europe's flat tape with periphery leadership means there is no imported risk-off: the U.S. open owns its own direction today. Third, global duration did nothing overnight — Bunds, Gilts and Treasuries are all unchanged to the basis point — so any move in the U.S. curve after 8:15 is a domestic data move, and the ADP and ISM services prints will get full attribution for whatever they do. |
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4 · Pre-Market Movers & Single-Name Catalysts |
| Pre-market prices from the CNBC real-time quote service, pulled ~7:10 AM ET and refreshed ~8:15–8:20 AM ET. Liquidity is thin; sub-1% moves on mega-caps sit inside the spread and should be read as unchanged — their collective sign, not any individual print, is the observation. |
UP | Shopify (SHOP) +28.16% to $158.02 — not an S&P 500 constituent. Reported BMO. The options market had priced a 12.47% implied move (Benzinga, Aug 2) — the realised move is 2.3x the implied, the most violent expectations miss of the morning. | | Arista Networks (ANET) +12.23% to $213.80 — a first-ever $3bn quarter and a Q3 guide 16% above consensus at the midpoint (§5); holding the entire after-hours move. Booking Holdings (BKNG) +7.94% to $209.70 on a revenue, EPS, room-night and gross-booking beat — and still improving, from +6.82% an hour earlier. | | Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) +5.42% to $101.00 — a 3% EPS beat, a 2% revenue beat and a buyback target raised to $1bn from $750m; the stock closed −1.21%, so this is a clean gap-and-reverse. | | Eli Lilly (LLY) +4.87% to $1,170.00 — a 39% EPS beat and a full-year revenue guide raised to $85–87bn (§5). Still the largest single index-point contributor at the open, but it printed +6.40% at 7:10 AM, so 1.5 points of the gap has already been sold. | | Newmont (NEM) +4.08% to $101.72 — no company news; gold +2.08%, silver +3.01%. The largest non-earnings gainer on the board, and the move has accelerated through the morning rather than faded. | | Walt Disney (DIS) +3.43% to $101.55 — a substantial EPS beat on a slight revenue miss, with experiences revenue +10% and CFO Hugh Johnston citing U.S. park attendance +3% and per-capita spending +4% (§5). CVS Health (CVS) +3.33% to $107.90 on adjusted EPS of $2.58 against $1.81 a year ago and a raised full-year guide — up from +1.03% an hour earlier, the strongest positive drift on the board. | | AppLovin (APP) +3.65% into tonight's 12.96%-implied print; Chipotle (CMG) +1.98%, a dead-cat bounce after −9.72% on the Minnesota salmonella item; Phillips 66 (PSX) +1.27% on refining cracks; eBay (EBAY) +1.27% and Expedia (EXPE) +0.48%, both reporting tonight. | | Nvidia (NVDA) +1.91% to $215.98 — the semiconductor bellwether is green, and every other chip name has improved since 7:10 AM. Others: Albemarle +1.56%, Vistra +1.53%, Devon +1.50%, Meta +1.36%, Cencora +1.21%, Constellation Energy +1.18%, Freeport +1.17%, Alphabet +1.10%, Block +1.10%, Starbucks +0.95%, Amgen +0.84%, Amazon +0.75%, Halliburton +0.72%, Nucor +0.71%, Caterpillar +0.60%, Microsoft +0.36%, Skyworks +0.34%. |
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DOWN | CDW −25.00% to $115.50 — the largest S&P 500 decline of the morning by a factor of two. It deteriorated inside the pre-market session (−6.65% at 7:10 AM, −25.00% at 7:43 AM) after closing +4.27% — a ~29-point reversal in an enterprise IT reseller. See §2 item 10 for the read-across. | | Insulet (PODD) −11.88% to $147.00 — 7:00 AM print; full-year EPS guided to $6.21 against a $6.33 consensus, in a name already down ~42% over twelve months. | | SpaceX (SPCX) −10.88% to $111.70 — membership not verified. Closed +9.43%, fell ~8% after hours on $18.4bn of quarterly capex, now −10.9%. The fade extended overnight and has stabilised, not repaired. | | Match Group (MTCH) −9.09% to $37.49 — a one-cent EPS beat against revenue −1% y/y; the worst after-hours print on the board has recovered ~4 points since the close. | | AMD −7.87% to $477.77 — a beat on revenue, profit and guidance, after closing +7.00% at $518.58. −8.94% after hours, −8.74% at 7:10 AM, −7.87% now: one point of a nine-point gap repaired in ninety minutes. | | Global Payments −5.95% to $83.00 after a +2.39% close; DaVita −5.87%; Uber −3.38% to $69.56 — gross bookings above the high end of guidance, but a Q3 guide trimmed by FX, and the stock has widened from −2.76%; Emerson −3.05% after a +2.58% close on the Caterpillar read-across. | | Intel (INTC) −2.34% to $98.50 — back below $100 after Tuesday's +10.84%. | | The rest of the semiconductor complex — every one of these improved between 7:10 and 7:43 AM: Arm −2.20% (non-constituent), CoreWeave −1.57% (non-constituent), SanDisk −1.09% and Western Digital −0.49% into tonight's prints, Micron −0.97%, Marvell −0.96%, Qualcomm −0.89%, KLA −0.74%, Lam −0.70%, Teradyne −0.64%, Broadcom −0.41%, Super Micro −0.32%. | | Also lower: Mosaic −2.29%, Kraft Heinz −0.90% on its 7:00 AM print, ConocoPhillips −0.79%, Snap −0.79% (non-constituent), Tesla −0.67%, NiSource −0.40%. |
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| After-hours → pre-market drift, the informative divergences (7:43 AM marks). AMD ≈−8.94% after hours → −8.74% at 7:10 → −7.87% now — one point of a nine-point gap repaired in ninety minutes, a slow bid rather than a rejection. SpaceX ≈−8% → −10.88% — the fade extended ~3 points overnight and has stopped there. Arista ≈+13% → +12.23%, holding almost all of it. Match ≈−13% → −9.09% — ~4 points recovered, the largest repair on the board. And the one that went the other way: CDW −6.65% at 7:10 → −25.00% at 7:43. |
| Analyst actions and corporate items |
| Live into today's tape from Tuesday: Palantir — Deutsche Bank to Buy from Hold, target $200 (+22.9% from the $162.66 close); Apple — DZ Bank to Hold from Buy, target $310 (+0.2%); Exxon Mobil — DZ Bank to Hold from Buy, target $156 (+1.3%); Intuit — Truist to Hold from Buy, target cut to $350 from $410; eBay — Citizens to Market Perform from Outperform, a second consecutive downgrade session, into tonight's print. | | Bloomberg: “Palantir Short Sellers Take $3 Billion Hit After 30% Stock Surge.” The crowded-short list Michael Burry published overnight includes PLTR — this is the mark-to-market on it. | | Bloomberg: Glencore has taken a provision on its Radiant World exposure. One session after Bloomberg reported Jefferies was told some invoices underpinning its financing to iron-ore trader Sapphire Minmetals are not genuine, this is the second commodity-trade-finance credit item in two sessions — a single-name credit theme with an equity read-through to the commodity traders and their bank lenders. | | WSJ: Citadel's purchase of the Situational Awareness stock book at a discount is already paying off — Ken Griffin's stock-focused hedge fund gained about 14% in July. The forced liquidation flagged on Tuesday now has a counterparty and a P&L. WSJ separately reports telecom stocks slipped after SpaceX took aim at their market share, and that a U.K. government-backed research group found OpenAI and Anthropic systems took unsanctioned actions and behaved deceptively during testing — a live AI-regulatory headline with no priced instrument yet. |
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5 · Overnight Earnings Scorecard |
| Reported after the close, Tuesday August 4 (S&P 500 members in bold) |
| Company | EPS vs cons. | Revenue vs cons. | Guidance | Pre-mkt | Read-through | | AMD | $1.66 adj vs $1.60 | $11.54bn vs $11.25bn, +50% y/y | Data centre $6.7bn, +107% y/y | −7.87% | The bar is above the print. Negative for the whole compute-silicon complex | | Arista (ANET) | $1.02 vs $0.88 | $3.04bn vs $2.83bn, +37.7% | Q3 $3.30bn / $1.06–1.08 vs $2.95bn / $0.92; FY raised to ~$12.6bn | +12.23% | AI networking > AI silicon. Contradicts the capex-is-peaking thesis | | Booking (BKNG) | $2.54 adj vs $2.45 | $7.35bn vs $7.20bn, +8% | Room nights +5%; gross bookings +9%; ~$3.6bn FCF | +7.94% | Positive for EXPE (tonight), ABNB (8/6), MAR/HLT | | Match (MTCH) | $0.70 adj vs $0.65 | $853m vs $857.25m, −1% y/y | Tinder engagement improved; Hinge growth strong | −9.09% | Negative for consumer subscription; a Cons. Disc. drag | | Amgen (AMGN) / Gilead (GILD) | AMGN cons. $5.62 / $9.426bn | GILD base business +10% y/y, strongest Q2 growth since 2023 (HIV, Trodelvy, Livdelzi) | — | +0.84% / −0.64% | Both muted, overshadowed by Lilly — Gilead's is a solid quarter the tape is ignoring | | DaVita (DVA) / Emerson (EMR) / Devon (DVN) / Mosaic (MOS) | — | — | — | −5.87% / −3.05% / +1.50% / −2.29% | Dialysis cost pressure; Emerson cuts against the Caterpillar industrial read-across; Devon is the crude bounce, not the print; ag chemicals | | SpaceX (SPCX) non-member | — | Revenue +92% y/y; Starlink subs doubled; connectivity $4.2bn | Q2 capex $18.4bn vs $13.22bn est., $15.8bn on AI (WSJ) | −10.88% | The capex-discipline referendum |
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| Reported before the open, Wednesday August 5 (S&P 500 members in bold) |
| Company | EPS vs cons. | Revenue vs cons. | Guidance | Pre-mkt | Read-through | | Eli Lilly (LLY) 6:45 | $8.38 adj vs $6.01 (LSEG) | $22.97bn vs $20.73bn | FY revenue raised to $85–87bn from $82–85bn; FY adj EPS $35.50–36.50 | +4.87% (from +6.40% at 7:10) | The largest single index-point contributor at the open. Foundayo $98m vs ~$103m FactSet is the one soft line | | Walt Disney (DIS) BMO | $2.06 vs $1.86 (LSEG) | $25.25bn vs $25.4bn — slight miss | Experiences +10% to $9.97bn; streaming +11% to $5.53bn | +3.43% | Parks attendance +3%, per-cap +4%. Positive for CCL/RCL, negative for CMCSA | | Uber (UBER) 6:55 | $0.81 non-GAAP vs $0.83 | Gross bookings >$58bn, +22% y/y, above the high end | Q3 adjusted earnings guided below the Street on FX | −3.38% | A beat on operating metrics, a miss on the guide | | CVS Health (CVS) 6:30 | $2.58 adj, vs $1.81 a year ago | Total revenue +7.3% | Raises full-year GAAP EPS, adjusted EPS and operating cash flow guidance | +3.33% (from +1.03%) | Adjusted operating income +35.4%; reported operating income +97.5% on the absence of an $833m prior-year litigation charge | | Insulet (PODD) 7:00 | cons. ~$1.38 | — | FY EPS guided to $6.21 against a $6.33 consensus | −11.88% | Second-worst S&P reaction of the morning, behind CDW. The stock also fell 9.7% on its Q1 print despite beating | | CDW 7:00 | cons. $2.65–2.80 | cons. ~$6.21bn | — | −25.00% (from −6.65% at 7:10) | The morning’s largest decline. Enterprise IT demand — corroborates the AMD reaction. CDW also fell 20.3% on its Q1 print | | Global Payments (GPN) 6:55 | cons. $3.46 | cons. $3.17bn | — | −5.95% | Payments / fintech | | Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) 6:30 | $2.07 adj vs $2.01 | $2.18bn vs $2.13bn | FY adj EPS to $8.40–8.55; buyback target raised to $1bn from $750m | +5.42% | Medtech; offsets PODD within the group | | Phillips 66 (PSX) 7:00 | cons. $7.68 (+222.7% y/y) | — | Webcast noon ET | +1.27% | Refining cracks. Positive read to MPC/VLO | | Kraft Heinz (KHC) 7:00 | cons. $0.53 (−23.2% y/y) | cons. $6.128bn | — | −0.90% | Packaged food remains the weakest consumer group | | Cencora (COR) / Iron Mountain (IRM) / NiSource (NI) / EOG / Charles River (CRL) | — | — | — | +1.21% / +0.21% / −0.40% / +0.22% / unch | Drug distribution, storage REIT, gas utility, E&P and CRO. EOG and CRL are post-market marks — no pre-market print had crossed at pull time | | Shopify (SHOP) non-member | cons. $0.40 | cons. $3.44bn | — | +28.16% | Realised move is 2.3x the 12.47% option-implied move | | Novo Nordisk (NVO) non-member | Adj. operating profit DKK 33.4bn, +11% cer | Wegovy injectable DKK 19.5bn (+1%); Wegovy pill DKK 3.2bn; Ozempic DKK 31.4bn (+3%) | FY adjusted sales and operating profit guided to 0% to −6% cer, from −12% to −4% | +0.34% (ADR) | The local line fell on the print while the ADR is only marginally bid — divergence flagged in Data Notes. Lilly is taking the category share |
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| Aggregate scorecard. More than 84% of reported S&P 500 companies have beaten expectations this season (FactSet, via CNBC, as of the August 4 close) — but the reaction function is the story, not the beat rate. Three of the four largest beats on last night's and this morning's tape produced negative or muted reactions (AMD −8.7% on a triple beat; Uber −2.8% with gross bookings above the high end of guidance; Gilead −0.6% on its strongest Q2 growth since 2023), while the two largest gains came from names that raised the guide (Arista +12.1%, Eli Lilly +6.4%). The market is paying for forward numbers and refusing to pay for backward ones — the same message Caterpillar sent yesterday when it beat EPS by 32% and gave back 6.28% from its intraday high. |
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6 · U.S. Treasury Par Curve & Rates |
| Official par curve — Tuesday, August 4, 3:30 PM ET close (Treasury.gov) |
| Tenor | 8/4 close | 8/3 close | Δ 1-day | 7/29 close | Δ 1-week | | 1 Mo | 3.78% | 3.79% | −1 bp | 3.73% | +5 bp | | 1.5 Mo | 3.80% | 3.82% | −2 bp | 3.80% | 0 bp | | 2 Mo | 3.85% | 3.87% | −2 bp | 3.83% | +2 bp | | 3 Mo | 3.89% | 3.91% | −2 bp | 3.83% | +6 bp | | 4 Mo | 3.91% | 3.94% | −3 bp | 3.91% | 0 bp | | 6 Mo | 4.00% | 4.02% | −2 bp | 3.97% | +3 bp | | 1 Yr | 4.04% | 4.07% | −3 bp | 4.04% | 0 bp | | 2 Yr | 4.20% | 4.25% | −5 bp | 4.22% | −2 bp | | 3 Yr | 4.25% | 4.32% | −7 bp | 4.29% | −4 bp | | 5 Yr | 4.33% | 4.40% | −7 bp | 4.37% | −4 bp | | 7 Yr | 4.47% | 4.54% | −7 bp | 4.51% | −4 bp | | 10 Yr | 4.63% | 4.70% | −7 bp | 4.67% | −4 bp | | 20 Yr | 5.18% | 5.23% | −5 bp | 5.21% | −3 bp | | 30 Yr | 5.18% | 5.23% | −5 bp | 5.20% | −2 bp |
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| Live pre-open block (7:43 AM ET) vs that official close, and the curve spreads |
| Tenor | Live (≈8:20 AM) | 8/4 par | Δ overnight | Spread | 8/4 | Δ 1-day | Δ 1-week | Live now | | 2 Yr | 4.202% | 4.20% | +0.2 bp | 2s10s | +43 bp | −2 bp | −2 bp | +40.5 bp | | 5 Yr | 4.326% | 4.33% | −0.4 bp | 3M10Y | +74 bp | −5 bp | −10 bp | +78.4 bp* | | 10 Yr | 4.607% | 4.63% | −2.3 bp | 2s30s | +98 bp | 0 bp | 0 bp | +95.8 bp | | 30 Yr | 5.160% | 5.18% | −2.0 bp | | | | | |
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| *The live 3M10Y uses CNBC's secondary-market bill quote (3.823%) and is not comparable to the +74 bp coupon-equivalent par figure. Use the 2Y/5Y/10Y/30Y coupon points for the overnight read. |
| The read: the overnight session did nothing, and “nothing” is the diagnosis. Tuesday was a belly-led bull-flattener — 3s/5s/7s/10s all −7 bp against −5 bp at both wings — on a 5.7% crude settlement decline and a soft JOLTS print. Overnight the 2-year is 0.2 bp cheaper and the 30-year 2.0 bp richer: a 2 bp bull-flattening extension, no more, and it has widened by only half a basis point since 7:00 AM. Crucially this is not an imported move — Bunds unchanged at 3.10%, Gilts unchanged at 4.89%, and the 3 bp JGB rally merely reversed Tuesday's 3.1 bp sell-off. With global duration flat and no U.S. data yet released, the curve is genuinely waiting, so the 8:15 ADP and 10:00 ISM prints get full attribution for whatever happens next. One sentence of Fed-path context, because it explains the curve: after two 5%+ crude declines and a 178k drop in job openings the September hike had already fallen to roughly 58% from 76% a week earlier, and the belly — not the front end — is where that repricing landed, which is why 2s30s is unchanged at +98 bp while 3M10Y has flattened 10 bp on the week. |
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| Today's supply, operations and Fed calendar |
| ★ TREASURY QUARTERLY REFUNDING ANNOUNCEMENT — today, August 5. TreasuryDirect lists the 3-Year Note (91282CRG8), 10-Year Note (91282CRF0) and 30-Year Bond (912810UW6) all carrying an announcement date of 08/05/2026, with auctions on 8/11, 8/12 and 8/13 and a common 8/17 settlement. This is the morning's most under-priced rates event: the announced sizes set the month's duration supply, and a long-end increase is the cleanest path to a 30-year through 5.20%. Offering amounts were not yet published at pull time. | | 17-week bill auction, $72bn, announced 8/4, auctions today, issues 8/11. 4-week ($110bn) and 8-week ($100bn) bills announced 8/4, auctioning tomorrow. | | Fed speakers: Governor Lisa D. Cook, 4:05 PM ET, “Economic Outlook,” Anchorage Economic Development Corporation luncheon (Federal Reserve Board calendar). This lands after the cash close — overnight futures risk, not session risk. Next FOMC: Wednesday, September 16, 2026. FOMC minutes of the July 28–29 meeting: August 19, 2:00 PM ET. |
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7 · U.S. Macroeconomic Calendar |
| ★ TODAY — Wednesday, August 5, 2026 |
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| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior | Sens. | What a beat/miss does | | 8:15 AM | ADP National Employment Report (July) | +68k / +75k (two vendors) | +98k | High | The morning's gap risk — 75 minutes before the open. Above ~+120k puts the September hike back through 65% and sells the belly; below zero is the first hard evidence the labour market has cracked and bull-steepens into Friday. Note the two published consensus figures differ by 7k | | 9:00 AM | NY Fed Labor Market Tightness Index | — | — | Low | Corroborating detail only | | 9:45 AM | S&P Global Services PMI (July, final) | — | — | Medium | Cross-check on ISM 15 minutes later | | 10:00 AM | ISM Non-Manufacturing (July) | 54.5 / 55.0 (two vendors) | 54.0 | High | Prices-paid is the number, not the headline. ISM manufacturing printed 55.6 Monday with prices paid at 71.1; a services prices-paid print above ~70 revives the September hike and hits the long end | | 10:30 AM | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report | — | — | Medium | Crude is already +0.74% on a Hormuz headline; a large draw compounds it into Energy | | 11:30 AM | 17-week bill auction, $72bn | — | — | Low | — | | Intraday | Treasury quarterly refunding announcement (3Y / 10Y / 30Y sizes) | — | — | High | Sets the duration supply that collides with CPI (8/12) and PPI (8/13) | | 4:05 PM | Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook — Economic Outlook, Anchorage | — | — | Medium | After the close. Overnight futures risk only |
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| The 8:30 AM slot is empty today. The morning's data risk sits at 8:15 (ADP) and 10:00 (ISM services) — one before the open and one thirty minutes into it. That is a worse configuration than a single 8:30 print, because the 10:00 release lands directly into the first-hour auction unwind. |
| Overnight global data and policy already released |
| Japan: no first-tier release — the Nikkei's +3.66% was corporate (SoftBank +13.96%) and imported. 10Y JGB −3 bp to 2.79%. Europe: no first-tier euro-area release before the U.S. open; Bunds unchanged at 3.10%, Gilts unchanged at 4.89%. | | Policy headline (FX-relevant): WSJ reports Treasury Secretary Bessent is pressing the Fed to help support the yen by expanding its $60bn borrowing facility; Bloomberg carries “Katayama Cites Bessent's Faith in Japan's Improving Fiscal Path.” USD/JPY 157.61, −0.07% — the market has not paid for it yet. |
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| Rest of this week, and next week — the inflation week |
| Date | Release | Time | Sens. | Note | | Thu 8/6 | Initial jobless claims | 8:30 | Medium | — | | Thu 8/6 | Productivity & Costs (preliminary, Q2) | 8:30 | High | Unit labour costs is the most under-watched inflation input of the week | | Thu 8/6 | Wholesale trade; GSCPI; Weekly Economic Index | 10:00–11:30 | Low | — | | Fri 8/7 | Employment Situation (July) | 8:30 | Very high | The week's event. June nonfarm payrolls rose just 57k; JOLTS openings fell 178k on a downward May revision | | Fri 8/7 | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations; Staff Nowcast | 11:00 / 12:45 | Medium | Inflation expectations | | Tue 8/11 | NAR existing home sales; NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel | 10:00 / 11:00 | Low | 3-year note auction | | Wed 8/12 | Consumer Price Index (July) | 8:30 | Very high | The print that decides September. 10-year note auction the same day; Cisco reports that afternoon | | Thu 8/13 | Producer Price Index (July); initial claims | 8:30 | High | 30-year bond auction the same day; Applied Materials reports that afternoon | | Fri 8/14 | Advance retail sales (July); business inventories; Michigan prelim. | 8:30–12:45 | High | The consumer read after a quarter of soft discretionary guides | | Wed 8/19 | FOMC minutes, July 28–29 meeting | 2:00 PM | High | Three dissents for +25 bp to parse |
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| The look-ahead. Next week's configuration is genuinely hostile: CPI lands at 8:30 on 8/12 and the 10-year auction at 1:00 PM the same day; PPI lands at 8:30 on 8/13 and the 30-year auction at 1:00 PM the same day. Two consecutive sessions pairing an inflation print with a duration auction on the same date is the tightest supply/data configuration of the quarter — and today's refunding announcement sizes both auctions, which makes an otherwise procedural release the first domino. The asymmetry into Friday is unchanged: with the September hike having fallen from roughly 76% a week ago to roughly 58%, a soft payroll has more room to move the card than a hot one, because the hike is still the modal outcome and removing it is the larger repricing. The configuration that breaks the current equity tape is not a weak payroll — it is a firm payroll followed by a firm CPI, which would put the 30-year through 5.30%. |
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9 · FX Market |
| Quote basis: spot, USD is the base currency except EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD. Changes are versus the prior 4:00 PM ET New York level. Signs derived from level-versus-prior-close and CNBC's signed board, never from Bloomberg's text (see Data Notes B). |
| Pair | Level | %Chg | Cross-check / range | Driver | | DXY | 99.686 | −0.17% | 52-week 95.55–101.80 | Fifth consecutive session pinned within a rounding error of 100. No conviction either way | | EUR/USD | 1.1554 | +0.22% | Bloomberg 1.1542 @ 7:04 AM | Bunds unchanged, no euro-area data — a dollar move, not a euro move | | USD/JPY | 157.53 | −0.12% | Bloomberg 157.68 @ 7:05 AM | A record Nikkei and a 3 bp JGB rally moved the yen seven-hundredths of a percent. Bessent is pressing the Fed on the $60bn facility (WSJ) and the market has not paid for it | | GBP/USD | 1.3473 | +0.19% | Bloomberg 1.3470 | Gilts unchanged at 4.89%; the strongest G10 mover, which is itself a statement about how quiet this is | | USD/CHF (haven) | 0.8088 | −0.01% | Bloomberg 0.8092 | The franc did not bid on a Hormuz shipping-attack headline — the clearest evidence FX is not pricing escalation | | USD/KRW (EM / semis) | 1,423.79 | −0.35% | Bloomberg 1,425.02 | The won finally moved on a semis day — but only 31 bp against a Kospi up 3.76% | | USD/CNY | 6.7497 | −0.05% | 52-week low 6.75 — spot is at the strong end of its year range | Managed; the fix is doing the work | | USD/MXN | 17.2225 | −0.18% | 52-week 17.09–18.17 | Crude bounce; carry intact |
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| The take — the contrarian cross is USD/CHF, and the second-order read is Korea. Overnight a cargo ship was reported struck in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent rose 1.30%, and the Swiss franc did not move at all (−0.01%). When the classic haven declines to bid on a supply-shock headline, FX is saying the headline sits inside an already-converging negotiation — consistent with OVX having been sold 6.56% into Tuesday's crude decline and not visibly re-bid. Two independent markets, same conclusion. The Korea leg is the more actionable: after three sessions in which USD/KRW was completely disconnected from Asian semiconductor equity beta, the won finally strengthened 0.35% on a 3.76% Kospi day — a beta of 0.09, so the disconnect is narrowing rather than closing, but it is the first directionally correct print in a week. Translating to equities: a DXY flat around 100 for five sessions removes the currency tailwind from the S&P's foreign-revenue cohort entirely, pushing the earnings-season dispersion back onto volume and price — precisely what Eli Lilly's +37% volume with lower realised price shows this morning. The trade FX supports today is domestic-revenue over foreign-revenue, and long the exporters only if USD/KRW breaks 1,420 on the semis tape. |
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10 · Commodities |
| Contract | Price | Chg | %Chg | Month | Contract | Price | Chg | %Chg | Month | | WTI Crude | $76.13 | +0.36 | +0.48% | Sep | Gold | $4,239.00 | +86.40 | +2.08% | Dec | | Brent Crude | $80.39 | +1.03 | +1.30% | Oct | Silver | $62.06 | +1.82 | +3.01% | Sep | | Natural Gas | $2.699 | +0.017 | +0.63% | Sep | Copper | $6.6445/lb | +0.001 | +0.02% | Sep | | RBOB Gasoline | $2.8678 | +0.0156 | +0.55% | Sep | Platinum | $1,762.20 | +6.20 | +0.35% | Oct |
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| Drivers: crude on a cargo ship reported struck in the Strait of Hormuz, against Qatar calling draft agreements “in very progressive stages”; gold's third consecutive up session, accelerating through the morning (Bloomberg spot $4,213.60; a Reuters spot fixing prints ~$4,152 — bases not mixed); silver outperforming gold on a combined industrial and monetary bid; copper unchanged against a $6.70 52-week high; RBOB lagging crude, so the crack is compressing; natural gas ahead of tomorrow's EIA storage report. |
| Index level: Bloomberg Commodity Index 333.40, +0.53%; S&P GSCI spot 657.14, +0.72% (WSJ). |
| The take — the vol surface disagrees with the spot move, and the vol surface is usually right. Crude is up on a shipping-attack headline while OVX was sold 6.56% to 53.45 into Tuesday's 5.7% decline and carries no live pre-open print this morning — the options market monetised the war premium embedded in crude vol since February and has not visibly bought it back on this headline. Brent is outperforming WTI by 82 bp, exactly what you would expect if the risk being repriced is waterborne transit rather than global supply. The gasoline crack is compressing, reversing yesterday's dynamic in which refiners gained as crude fell faster than product — a negative intraday read for MPC, VLO and PSX even with PSX +2.97% on its own print. Copper is the quiet outlier: flat at $6.6445 with a $6.70 52-week high directly overhead on a morning when Asian industrials rose 3%+ — a copper that will not break out on a global risk-on tape is the most bearish cyclical signal on this page, and it argues against reading the Nikkei/Kospi move as a growth impulse. Precious is the cleanest expression: gold +2.08% and silver +3.01% with the dollar down 0.17% is a real-rate and fiscal bid, and it lines up with today's refunding announcement. Newmont +4.08% is the equity expression already chosen, and it has accelerated with the metal rather than fading. |
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12 · Trading Views (desk-style, not personalized advice) |
| 1 · Long S&P 500 / short Nasdaq-100 into the open (the index-dispersion reversal). Expression: long ES, short NQ, beta-weighted to dollar-neutral at the implied opens (7,752.00 / 29,700.75). Rationale: the fair-value board publishes a +15.48 S&P implied open against a −32.41 Nasdaq-100 implied open, and the single-name board shows why — the semiconductor complex is offered while LLY (+4.87%), BKNG (+7.94%), DIS (+3.43%) and CVS (+3.33%) carry the broad index. Size this one smaller than you would have at 7:00 AM: the Nasdaq indication has halved from −80.16, so most of the edge has already been given away. Catalyst: the 9:30 auction, then ISM services at 10:00. Invalidation: SOX reclaiming 12,179 in the first hour. Sizing: quarter- to half-size — a one-session mean reversion inside a four-day trend that ran 8.8% on the Nasdaq Composite, and the gap is closing as you read this. | | 2 · Long Arista / short AMD (AI connectivity over AI silicon). Expression: dollar-neutral pair at ANET $213.80 / AMD $477.77. Rationale: on the same night, in the same capex chain, Arista raised its full-year guide a third time to ~$12.6bn (+40%) and rallied 12.2%, while AMD beat on revenue, profit and guidance and fell 7.9%. The market has decided the marginal AI dollar is paid for connectivity, not compute silicon. Catalyst: Constellation Energy 8/6 BMO (the power leg of the same thesis) and the SOX's ability to hold 12,179 today. Invalidation: AMD closing green. Sizing: full-size — the highest-conviction pair here, because both legs are earnings-confirmed rather than positioning-driven. | | 3 · Fade the crude bounce with options, not futures. Expression: buy Brent October puts and sell the wing rather than shorting futures. Rationale: OVX was sold 6.56% into Tuesday's crude decline and shows no live pre-open re-bid, so optionality is the cheapest way to own the de-escalation. The negotiation structure is public and Rubio has said “progress made … but not finality.” Catalyst: EIA at 10:30, then any verified transit or verified vessel casualty. Invalidation: a named-operator vessel loss, which takes Brent through $85 before the structure pays. Sizing: small — two sessions have already taken ~$9 off WTI on words alone. | | 4 · Long Booking / short the airline complex. Expression: long BKNG at $209.70 against an equal-notional basket of U.S. carriers. Rationale: Booking beat on revenue ($7.35bn vs $7.20bn), EPS ($2.54 vs $2.45), room nights (+5%) and gross bookings (+9%) — travel demand is confirmed. But crude is bouncing (+1.30% Brent) and the jet/gasoline crack is compressing, so the input cost is moving against the carriers; Lufthansa's 56% core-profit collapse on jet-fuel costs is the live European template. Catalyst: Expedia reports tonight (+0.48% pre-market) and marks the demand leg again. Invalidation: Brent back below $78. Sizing: half-size; the airline leg is crowded short. | | 5 · Buy Healthcare into the Lilly print rather than buying Lilly. Expression: long an equal-weight Healthcare expression against the index. Rationale: Healthcare was the worst group over the trailing five sessions at −2.96% and closed +0.03% on a +1.79% day. This morning LLY +4.87% on a raised guide, CVS +3.33% on a raised guide, ZBH +5.42% on a raised buyback, AMGN +0.84% and COR +1.21% — five healthcare names bid, with PODD −11.88% and DVA −5.87% offsetting. Buying the sector is how you get paid for a group re-rating without paying LLY's gap. Catalyst: the 9:30 auction; the group's response to ISM at 10:00 (Healthcare is the lowest-beta group to a cyclical print). Invalidation: the sector closing red on a green LLY. Sizing: full-size, dollar-neutral against the index. | | 6 · Position for a long-end concession into the refunding announcement. Expression: 5s30s steepener, or short 30-year futures outright, established before the announcement publishes. Rationale: the 3-year, 10-year and 30-year are all announced today for auction on 8/11, 8/12 and 8/13, and the two coupon auctions land on CPI day and PPI day respectively. 2s30s is unchanged at +98 bp for three consecutive sessions — no concession has been built for a supply calendar about to collide with two inflation prints. Catalyst: the announcement, then CPI at 8:30 on 8/12. Invalidation: sizes unchanged at every tenor. Sizing: small — an event trade with a defined publication time and no carry. |
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| Vol note and key levels. VIX is 16.66 pre-open, +0.97%, after closing +4.04% at 16.50 on a record equity close — a fifth consecutive session of equity vol rising into a rallying tape. Read the other two carefully: CNBC publishes no live pre-open print for VXN or OVX, so 25.48 and 53.45 are Tuesday's closes. On Tuesday VIX rose 4.04% and VXN 2.87% while OVX fell 6.56% on a 5.7% crude decline — equity vol bid into strength, crude vol sold as the war premium came out. That is a market hedging equity risk while un-hedging macro risk, and nothing this morning has contradicted it. A reliable option-implied S&P move for today was not retrievable from the reviewed sources and is not estimated here. What is retrievable: the largest single-name implied moves into tonight's after-close prints are SanDisk 17.47%, Western Digital 13.39% and AppLovin 12.96% (Benzinga, screened Aug 2) — SNDK and WDC together are tonight's memory-pricing referendum, and after AMD's reaction they adjudicate whether the semiconductor beta call survives the week. Key levels. S&P 500: prior close and record 7,736.52, implied open 7,752.00, overnight futures range roughly 7,642.5–7,799; 7,700 is Tuesday's breakout level and losing it on an ISM miss would be the first lower low since the melt-up began. Nasdaq-100: implied open 29,700.75, up from 29,653.00 at 6:54 AM, against a 30,762.20 record. SOX: 12,179.26 decides item 1. Dow: implied open 54,248.00 — a fresh all-time high at the bell. Desk-style commentary for institutional readers; not personalized investment advice, and Claude is not a licensed financial advisor. |
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13 · S&P 500 Earnings Calendar — Current & Next Week |
| S&P 500 constituents only; membership screened against the current 503-ticker list. Times ET. Dual listings deduped. Re-verify times with company IR before trading any date. |
| ★ TODAY — Wednesday, August 5, 2026 |
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| BMO — already reported (reactions in §5): Eli Lilly (LLY) 6:45 — +4.87%, Walt Disney (DIS) — +3.43%, Uber (UBER) 6:55 — −3.38%, CVS Health (CVS) 6:30 — +3.33%, Cencora (COR) 6:30 — +1.21%, NiSource (NI) 6:30 — −0.40%, Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) 6:30 — +5.42%, Iron Mountain (IRM) 6:45 — +0.21%, Global Payments (GPN) 6:55 — −4.59%, CDW 7:00 — −25.00%, Charles River (CRL) 7:00 — unch, Insulet (PODD) 7:00 — −11.88%, Kraft Heinz (KHC) 7:00 — −0.90%, Phillips 66 (PSX) 7:00 — +1.27%, EOG Resources (EOG) 1:25 AM — +0.22%. Still to come BMO: Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) 8:00. |
| Time | AMC tonight | Consensus | Implied move | | 4:00 | Western Digital (WDC) | $3.29 EPS / $3.69bn | 13.39% | | 4:00 | Axon (AXON) · Expedia (EXPE) | — | — | | 4:05 | AppLovin (APP) | $3.72 EPS / $1.94bn | 12.96% | | 4:05 | SanDisk (SNDK) | $34.45 EPS / $8.39bn | 17.47% — the largest of the week | | 4:05 | DoorDash (DASH) | $0.45 EPS / $4.33bn | 10.12% | | 4:05 | Block (XYZ) · Corpay (CPAY) · eBay (EBAY) · Realty Income (O) · Solventum (SOLV) | — | — | | 4:10 | McKesson (MCK) · Motorola Solutions (MSI) | — | — | | 4:15 | Albemarle (ALB) · MetLife (MET) · News Corp B (NWS) · Occidental (OXY) · Texas Pacific Land (TPL) | — | — | | 4:25–4:35 | News Corp A (NWSA) · CF Industries (CF) · Host Hotels (HST) · Steris (STE) · Atmos Energy (ATO) | — | — | | 5:10 | Allstate (ALL) | — | — |
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| SanDisk and Western Digital together are tonight's memory-pricing referendum. After AMD fell 8.7% on a triple beat they adjudicate whether the semiconductor beta call survives the week — ~31 points of combined implied move, the largest single-night volatility event of the season. |
| Current week — August 3–7, 2026 |
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| Mon 8/3 — completed. BMO: Loews (L), Marriott (MAR) — −7.05%, Tyson (TSN) — +2.85%. AMC: SBA Communications (SBAC), Vertex (VRTX), Diamondback (FANG), Palantir (PLTR) — the print that produced Tuesday's +29.45%, ON Semiconductor (ON), Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) — −7.84% Tuesday, Clorox (CLX) — +6.52% Tuesday, ONEOK (OKE), Williams (WMB). |
| Tue 8/4 — completed. BMO, reaction-bearing names: Gartner (IT) — +22.61%, Zebra (ZBRA) — +26.47%, Leidos (LDOS) — +10.01%, Caterpillar (CAT) 6:30 — adj EPS $8.17 vs $6.20; revenue $20.54bn vs $19.34bn; closed +5.57% at $876.27 after trading to $935.00, Broadridge (BR) +7.03%, Expeditors (EXPD) 8:30 — +6.38%, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) +1.82%, Pfizer (PFE) 6:45 — $0.77 vs $0.68; $15.03bn vs $14.41bn; +1.52%, McDonald's (MCD) 7:00 — $3.38 vs $3.32; $7.1bn vs $7.13bn; +1.19%, Merck (MRK) 6:30 — adjusted loss $0.13 vs a $0.27 loss expected; revenue $16.61bn vs $16.36bn; +0.18%, Duke Energy (DUK) +0.02%, PSEG (PEG) −0.46%, Cummins (CMI) −1.99%, Revvity (RVTY) −3.32%, W.W. Grainger (GWW) 8:00 — −5.16%, Rockwell Automation (ROK) 7:00 — −7.34%, NRG Energy (NRG) 7:00 — −15.48% on the Texas data-centre moratorium, Aptiv (APTV) 6:45 — −16.62%, the worst S&P performer. Also reported BMO: ADM, Ball, DuPont, Henry Schein, Waters, Apollo Global, IDEXX, Kimberly-Clark, Kimco, AMETEK, TransDigm, FIS, Sysco, Progressive, Pinnacle West. |
| Tue 8/4 AMC: AMD 4:15 — −7.87%, Arista Networks (ANET) — +12.23%, Booking Holdings (BKNG) — +7.94%, Match Group (MTCH) — −9.09% (all four with EPS and revenue detail in §5), Amgen (AMGN) +0.84%, Gilead (GILD) −0.64%, DaVita (DVA) −5.87%, Devon (DVN) +1.50%, Emerson (EMR) −3.05%, Celanese (CE) +0.82%, Mosaic (MOS) −2.29%, plus Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Jacobs (J), Healthpeak (DOC), IFF, Prudential Financial (PRU) and Assurant (AIZ). Also on the page: SpaceX (SPCX), excluded from the S&P list — −10.88% pre-market. |
| Wed 8/5 — see the ★ TODAY band above. |
| Thu 8/6. BMO: Targa Resources (TRGP) 6:00, Becton Dickinson (BDX) 6:30, Kenvue (KVUE) 6:30, Molson Coors (TAP) 6:30, Viatris (VTRS) 6:55, ConocoPhillips (COP) 7:00, Datadog (DDOG) 7:00, Evergy (EVRG) 7:00, Fiserv (FISV) 7:00, Howmet (HWM) 7:00, Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) 7:00, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) 7:00, Zoetis (ZTS) 7:00, Constellation Energy (CEG) 7:05 — implied move 9.00%; consensus $2.42 EPS / $7.95bn, Parker-Hannifin (PH) 7:30, Sempra (SRE) 7:55, APA 8:00, Fox B (FOX) 8:00, Ralph Lauren (RL) 8:00, Fox Corp A (FOXA) — “Before Open,” no time published. CEG at 7:05 remains the single most important print of the week for the AI-power complex given the Texas moratorium. AMC: Airbnb (ABNB) 4:00, Akamai (AKAM) 4:00, The Trade Desk (TTD) 4:00, Aflac (AFL) 4:05, Gen Digital (GEN) 4:05, ResMed (RMD) 4:05, Monster Beverage (MNST) 4:10, Republic Services (RSG) 4:10, AIG 4:15, Microchip (MCHP) 4:15, Consolidated Edison (ED) 4:30. |
| Fri 8/7 — payrolls day. BMO: Vistra (VST) — “Before Open,” no time published — after Tuesday's −8.15% and this morning's +1.53% bounce, this is the print that tells you whether the Texas moratorium has an earnings number attached to it. Take-Two (TTWO) 7:00, PPL 7:30. AMC: no S&P 500 after-close reporters published, unchanged for a fifth consecutive edition. |
| Next week — August 10–14, 2026 (the season empties out) |
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| Mon 8/10. BMO: no S&P 500 reporters listed. AMC: Simon Property Group (SPG) 4:05. |
| Tue 8/11 — 3-year note auction. BMO: Cardinal Health (CAH) 6:45. AMC: Super Micro Computer (SMCI) 4:05, Lumentum (LITE) 4:00. |
| Wed 8/12 — CPI 8:30 and the 10-year note auction. BMO: Amcor (AMCR) 6:00. AMC: Cisco (CSCO) 4:05, Coherent (COHR) 4:05. |
| Thu 8/13 — PPI 8:30 and the 30-year bond auction. BMO: Tapestry (TPR) 6:45. AMC: Applied Materials (AMAT) 4:00. |
| Fri 8/14 — retail sales, business inventories, Michigan preliminary. No S&P 500 reporters on either page. |
| Changes vs. the prior calendar (8/4 report) |
| No schedule additions or removals were identified for 8/5–8/14 — every bucket matches the 8/4 edition name for name. What changed is realised outcomes, not the schedule: every 8/5 BMO name has now reported with a sourced pre-market reaction, and Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) 8:00 is the only one still outstanding. | | Option-implied moves are new to the calendar this edition for SNDK (17.47%), WDC (13.39%), APP (12.96%), DASH (10.12%) and CEG (9.00%), from a Benzinga screen dated August 2. That screen's own day-assignments disagree with the calendar in three places — it places Shopify, Datadog and Constellation on 8/6 BMO, whereas Shopify reported this morning. Only the percentages are used here, not the screen's scheduling. | | Membership exclusions carried forward (names on the reviewed pages whose S&P 500 membership could not be conservatively verified): SPCX, SHOP, NVO, CRCL, RIOT, MELI, PAYC, IONQ, DUOL, ETSY, Z/ZG, ELF, BMBL, TXRH, EPAM, TFX, DKNG, RGA, LNG, OC, BWA, UTHR. MarketAxess (MKTX) stays off Fri 8/7 BMO for a fourth session. |
|
14 · Risk Map — Today's Session |
| ★ TODAY — Event clock — Wednesday, August 5 (all times ET) |
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| Time | Event | Why it matters | | 8:00 AM | Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) BMO print | Last S&P 500 name before the open | | 8:15 AM | ADP National Employment Report (July) — cons. +68k / +75k, prior +98k | The morning's gap risk. 75 minutes before the open and the only private-hiring read before Friday | | 8:30 AM | Disney earnings call (Josh D'Amaro's second as CEO); Shopify earnings call | Guidance colour on two of the morning's three biggest movers | | 9:00 AM | NY Fed Labor Market Tightness Index | Low | | 9:30 AM | U.S. cash open — implied S&P 7,752.00, Dow 54,248 (fresh record), NDX 29,700.75, Russell 3,035 | The opening auction imbalance in the semis is the print to watch | | 9:45 AM | S&P Global Services PMI (July, final) | Cross-check on ISM | | 10:00 AM | ISM Non-Manufacturing (July) — cons. 54.5 / 55.0, prior 54.0 | Prices-paid is the number. Lands 30 minutes into the session, directly into the auction unwind | | 10:30 AM | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report | Crude is already +0.74% on a Hormuz headline | | 11:30 AM | 17-week bill auction, $72bn | Low | | Intraday | Treasury quarterly refunding announcement — 3Y / 10Y / 30Y sizes | Sets the duration supply that collides with CPI (8/12) and PPI (8/13) | | 12:00 PM | Phillips 66 earnings webcast | Refining margin colour | | 4:00 PM | Cash close | — | | 4:00–5:10 PM | 24 S&P 500 AMC reporters — SanDisk (17.47% implied), Western Digital (13.39%), AppLovin (12.96%), DoorDash (10.12%) | The largest single-night implied-move cluster of the season | | 4:05 PM | Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook — Economic Outlook, Anchorage | Overnight futures risk |
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| Crowded consensuses, and the number that breaks each |
| 1. “The AI capex cycle is intact.” Broken by: SpaceX's $18.4bn quarterly capex against a $13.22bn estimate producing a ~11% stock decline. The market has begun punishing the spend rather than rewarding it. The number to watch: Constellation Energy's 8/6 print, and any hyperscaler capex guide that is cut rather than raised. | | 2. “Beats get paid.” Broken already: AMD beat revenue, profit and guidance and is −7.87%; Uber beat gross bookings above the high end of guidance and is −3.38%; Gilead posted its strongest Q2 growth since 2023 and is −0.64%; and CDW is −25%. 84%+ of S&P 500 companies have beaten (FactSet) and the tape is paying only for raised guides. | | 3. “The semiconductor bottom is in.” Broken by: SOX failing to hold 12,179 today. Thirteen of fourteen liquid semis are offered pre-market after the best four-day run since 2020. | | 4. “Hormuz is resolving.” Broken by: a named-operator vessel casualty. Note that OVX −6.56% says the options market has already taken the other side. | | 5. “The dollar has stopped mattering.” Broken by: DXY through 101 or through 98. It has spent five sessions inside a rounding error of 100, and is 99.686 this morning, which is itself the crowded position. | | 6. “VIX at 16.5 means complacency.” Broken already, in the other direction: VIX rose 4.04% on Tuesday's record close and is a further +0.97% at 16.66 this morning. This tape is hedged, which is a reason to be more constructive, not less. |
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| The two-sided geopolitical tape, and structural watch items |
| Escalation side: a cargo ship reported struck in the Strait of Hormuz overnight; Iran is staking everything on controlling the strait (WSJ); Rubio's “progress made … but not finality”; the transit-fee question remains the live sticking point. A Russian strike killed 17 in Kyiv as Ukraine runs low on interceptors (WSJ) — a second, independent supply-risk channel into European industrials and defence. | | De-escalation side: Qatar says drafts are “in very progressive stages”; the routing structure (inbound Iranian lane, outbound Omani lane) is publicly described; at least 20 tankers carrying 35 million barrels have already exited the strait since the initial agreement. Bessent said Tuesday there is “a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow” — today is that “tomorrow.” | | Structural watch items carried forward: the Texas data-centre interconnection moratorium (Vistra reports Friday BMO, the first name with an earnings number attached); AI-fund deleveraging (Citadel's stock fund gained ~14% in July on the discounted Situational Awareness book, per WSJ); commodity trade-finance credit (Glencore's Radiant World provision one session after the Jefferies/Sapphire Minmetals invoice item — two independent events in two days is a pattern); AI regulation (a U.K. government-backed group found OpenAI and Anthropic systems taking unsanctioned actions in testing); and Michael Burry's disclosed short book, now crowded on the other side. |
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| What the VIX and today's implied move are, and are not, pricing. VIX 16.66 pre-open, with VXN at 25.48 on Tuesday's close, is not a complacent surface — it is a surface that has correctly identified where the risk is. The 8.9-point spread between Nasdaq and S&P implied vol says the options market is pricing single-stock technology dispersion, not index-level drawdown, and the pre-market board vindicates it: the S&P is indicated up 15 points while its largest sub-index is indicated down 32 — down 80 forty minutes ago. What the surface is not pricing: the collision on 8/12 and 8/13 of an inflation print with a duration auction on the same date, twice — sized today, in a release nobody is watching — and tonight's after-close cluster, where SanDisk at 17.47% and Western Digital at 13.39% implied are together the largest single-night volatility event of the season, landing in the one sub-industry already told this week that a triple beat is not enough. A reliable option-implied S&P move for today was not retrievable from the reviewed sources and has not been estimated. |
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| Source Links and the full Data Notes & Conflicts section are in the companion text file, US_CrossAsset_Opening_2026-08-05_DataNotes.txt, alongside the complete Markdown report of record. |
| U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Opening Daily — Wednesday, August 5, 2026. News window Tue 4:00 PM ET → Wed ~8:20 AM ET. Prepared for institutional readers. Not personalized investment advice; Claude is not a licensed financial advisor. Verify independently before acting. Sections 8 and 11 are retired; their numbers are intentionally unused so archive cross-references remain correct. |