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U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Opening Daily
Friday, September 25, 2026 — Pre-Open Briefing | Data as of: ~7:15 AM ET | News window: Thu 4:00 PM ET → Fri ~7:15 AM ET
Prepared for Institutional Investors. Not Personalized Investment Advice; Verify Independently before Acting. | Source Links and Data Notes & Conflicts provided in the companion text file (US_CrossAsset_Opening_2026-09-25_DataNotes.txt). |
1 · Pre-Open Dashboard |
| The overnight in one paragraph. The global bond rout paused, and that is the whole story of the open. After two sessions that took the par 10-year to 5.18% and the 30-year to 5.47% (the highest since 2004), the 10-year is 5.163% at 7:15 AM, 1.7 bp below Thursday's par close, while the 2-year sits at 4.876% (+0.6 bp): the long end has stopped cheapening. Bloomberg's wrap put it as the selloff fading “as oil cools”. The oil input is the Reuters report that U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York are discussing a phased deal to reopen Hormuz in exchange for ending the U.S. blockade: Brent −1.01% to $105.52, WTI −1.81% to $92.90 (6:59 AM). The dollar snapped its run: DXY −0.33% to 100.947, led by the yen (USD/JPY −0.79% to 157.58) after Japan's finance minister said Trump raised weak-yen concerns with PM Takaichi. Futures rank by duration relief: NQ +0.52% > ES +0.26% ≈ RTY +0.26% > YM +0.21%, with chipmakers bid (AMD +1.9%, SanDisk +2.0%, SMH +1.3%) and the single-name story Akamai +18.8% on its $11.6bn Anthropic compute contract. Energy trades lower pre-market (Valero −1.3%, Devon −1.2%). What this hands the 9:30 open: a modest gap higher (implied S&P ~7,724, +0.26%) led by growth and semis, with the two binary tests arriving before lunch: 8:30 durable goods (consensus −0.4%) and the week's only Very-high release, 10:00 Michigan one-year inflation expectations (consensus 4.6% vs 4.0%). A hot expectations print re-opens the long-end selloff this rally depends on. |
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| Equity futures — December 2026 front contracts (CNBC quote service, 7:05 AM ET) |
| Contract | Level | Chg | %Chg | Implied cash open / note | | S&P 500 (ESZ6) | 7,787.25 | +20.25 | +0.26% | Implied SPX 7,724.38 vs 7,704.13 close; o/n range 7,748.50-7,792.50 | | Nasdaq-100 (NQZ6) | 30,928.25 | +161.50 | +0.52% | Implied NDX 30,640.36 vs 30,478.86 | | Dow (YMZ6) | 51,824 | +107 | +0.21% | Implied DJIA 51,456.98 vs 51,349.98 | | Russell 2000 (RTYZ6) | 2,864.30 | +7.50 | +0.26% | Implied RUT 2,843.07 vs 2,835.57 |
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| Reconciliation: ES +20.25 / 7,767.00 prior settle = +0.261%; NQ +161.50 / 30,766.75 = +0.525%; YM +107 / 51,717 = +0.207%; RTY +7.50 / 2,856.80 = +0.263%. Implied cash open = prior cash close + futures points change (the settle-to-cash basis of 62.87 S&P points at Thursday's close is held constant; no separate fair-value feed was retrieved). |
| Prior cash closes — Thursday, September 24 (reference anchors) |
| Index | Close | Chg | %Chg | Note | | S&P 500 | 7,704.13 | −1.90 | −0.02% | Range 7,662.57-7,719.01; breadth 164-328 | | Nasdaq Composite | 26,939.37 | +3.34 | +0.01% | Closed 0.87% off its low | | Dow Jones | 51,349.98 | −161.61 | −0.31% | | | Russell 2000 | 2,835.57 | −3.09 | −0.11% | | | PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) | 12,492.54 | −41.74 | −0.33% | | | VIX (close) | 15.67 | +0.49 | +3.23% | Intraday high 16.57 |
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| Cross-asset pre-open board (CNBC unless stated; ET timestamps) |
| Instrument | Level | Chg | %Chg / bp | Note | | VIX (indicative, 7:15) | 15.11 | −0.56 | −3.57% | VX Oct future 17.70 (6:59), contango +2.59 pts | | UST 2Y (7:15) | 4.876% | +0.6 bp | vs par 4.87% | vs CNBC late-Thu 4.895%: −1.9 bp | | UST 10Y (7:15) | 5.163% | −1.7 bp | vs par 5.18% | Bloomberg: −3 bp to 5.17% | | UST 30Y (7:15) | 5.465% | −0.5 bp | vs par 5.47% | Thu high 5.486% | | DXY (7:15) | 100.947 | −0.338 | −0.33% | Snaps the dollar's run | | EUR/USD (7:09) | 1.1408 | +0.0029 | +0.25% | | | USD/JPY (7:15) | 157.58 | −1.25 | −0.79% | Katayama jawboning; yen strongest G10 | | WTI Nov (6:59) | $92.90 | −$1.71 | −1.81% | vs $94.61 settle | | Brent Nov (6:59) | $105.52 | −$1.08 | −1.01% | vs $106.60 settle | | Gold Dec (6:59) | $4,346.50 | +$48.50 | +1.13% | vs $4,298.00 settle | | Copper Dec (6:59) | $6.7905 | +$0.0005 | +0.01% | | | Bitcoin (7:09) | $85,083 | +$600 | +0.71% | 24h; Bitget hack $352m (Bloomberg) | | Nikkei 225 (close) | 66,364.20 | +850.21 | +1.30% | Topix +1.31% | | Kospi | 7,080.92 | — | — | Closed (holiday); 23 Sep close | | Hang Seng (close) | 24,510.09 | −251.04 | −1.01% | | | Shanghai Comp. | 3,888.37 | — | — | Closed (holiday); 24 Sep close | | Stoxx 600 (~7:00) | 639.68 | +3.25 | +0.51% | Best week since August (Bloomberg) | | DAX (~7:00) | 25,431.63 | +165.10 | +0.65% | | | FTSE 100 (~7:00) | 10,704.86 | +24.87 | +0.23% | |
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| Sources: CNBC quote service (quote.cnbc.com, read in local Chrome), Bloomberg Markets Wrap and Rates & Bonds board, official Treasury par curve (24 Sep, via the Closing Daily), Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor. Treasury yields are coloured inverted (up = red). VX and ES quotes are futures; VIX is the cash index. |
2 · Overnight Hot Spots — the past 15 hours, ranked by tradability |
| 1. The bond rout paused, and growth gets the relief. [Rates / Equities] The 10-year is 5.163% at 7:15 AM, 1.7 bp under Thursday's 5.18% par close and 6 bp under WSJ's 5.225% intraday high (the highest since June 2007); the 30-year is 5.465% (−0.5 bp). The 2-year is +0.6 bp at 4.876%, so the move is a modest long-end-led rally, the reverse of Thursday's term-premium steepener. Bloomberg's wrap: bonds steadied “as oil's rally lost steam”; Jefferies' Mohit Kumar called it “a one-factor world” of oil driving rates. Equity transmission: NQ +0.52% vs YM +0.21%. Watch: the 10-year's 5.10%-5.20% band; back above 5.20% after the 10:00 Michigan print invalidates the relief. | | 2. Akamai +18.8% pre-market on an $11.6bn Anthropic compute contract. [Equities / Credit] AKAM $131.18 at 7:10 AM on 364K shares vs $110.41 close (it fell 6.78% in the session). Seven-year deal, expandable by ~$9bn; Anthropic gets a warrant for up to ~5% of shares at $111.33; Akamai expects ~$5.5bn of capex and raised 2026 capex by $1.7bn. Guggenheim lifted its target to $225 from $190; UBS (Roger Boyd, Neutral) to $148 from $143, flagging “margin and free cash flow pressure”. After-hours peak was $133.21 (+20.65%, Benzinga), so a small fade is already under way. Watch: the $133 AH high (gap-and-go) vs $120.80, the half-gap fill; read-through to NET (+2.3% pre) and FSLY (+4.4%). | | 3. Oil gives back the Houthi premium on Hormuz talks. [Commodities / Equities / Rates] Brent Nov $105.52 (−1.01%), WTI Nov $92.90 (−1.81%) at 6:59 AM. Reuters: negotiators in New York are discussing stage one as reopening Hormuz in exchange for ending the U.S. blockade; an Iranian official still called the chances of diplomacy “extremely low”. Energy pre-market: MPC −1.4%, VLO −1.3%, DVN −1.2%, EOG −1.2%, OXY −1.2%, XOM −0.8%; airlines UAL +1.3%, DAL +1.0%. Watch: Brent $104.51 overnight low; below $100 is the de-escalation trade, back above $107 re-arms Thursday's rate shock. | | 4. The yen jumps on Tokyo jawboning; the dollar snaps its streak. [FX / Equities] USD/JPY 157.58 (−0.79%) from 158.83; Finance Minister Katayama said Trump raised weak-yen concerns with PM Takaichi in New York and Takaichi agreed an undervalued yen is a problem (Reuters). DXY −0.33% to 100.947; EUR/USD +0.25%, AUD +0.36%, USD/KRW −0.97% offshore. Watch: 157.00 in USD/JPY; a break points to intervention risk and pressures the yen-funded carry that has leaned on U.S. long-duration assets. | | 5. Chips lead the pre-market bid. [Equities] AMD +1.88% ($641.10), SanDisk +2.03%, Western Digital +1.71%, Seagate +1.38%, Broadcom +1.35%, Micron +1.31% ($1,094.66), Intel +1.34%, Nvidia +0.57%; SMH +1.32% vs QQQ +0.70%. Bloomberg reported Musk aims to double Colossus 2's Nvidia chips by year-end. Memory is bouncing after Thursday's WDC −4.9% and SNDK −3.5%. Watch: SOX 12,492.54 prior close; Micron reports 30 September. | | 6. MGM flips from target to bidder. [Equities / Credit] WSJ: MGM Resorts is discussing a bid for People Inc., the Barry Diller company that withdrew its $48.30-a-share MGM approach Wednesday and owns ~27% of MGM. People Inc. (PPLI, not in the S&P 500) +9.66% to $39.40; MGM +0.32% to $33.80 after Thursday's −10.99%. WSJ's sources said a proposal could come “in the coming days”. Watch: MGM's financing language; an acquirer taking on leverage into 5%-plus yields typically trades lower. | | 7. Two macro prints before 10:05 AM decide whether the relief holds. [Rates / Equities / FX] 8:30 durable goods (consensus −0.4% vs +1.1%; ex-transport +0.6%) and 10:00 Michigan final (sentiment 47.6 vs 51.7; one-year inflation expectations 4.6% vs 4.0%). CME puts October hike odds at 68.6% (via Benzinga); Investing.com at 73.5%. Watch: a 1-year print at or above 4.6% pushes the 2-year toward 4.95% and hits NQ hardest. | | 8. Oracle's force-majeure notice raises questions about AI data-centre execution. [Equities / Credit] ORCL fell 3.47% to $139.54 Thursday after sending a force-majeure notice on the New Mexico “Project Jupiter” site; WSJ reports a key partner removed and local resistance. Pre-market +0.07%; Oracle Japan +7% on a record quarter. Watch: whether the capex doubt spreads to power/grid names (VST, CEG, GEV); so far it has not. | | 9. Costco beat, but the market paid nothing. [Equities] GAAP EPS $6.75 includes a one-off $0.15 tariff refund (~$6.60 ex-refund vs LSEG $6.53); renewal rate slipped to 89.8%. COST −0.22% at $894.50; BofA target $1,095 from $1,200 (Section 5). | | 10. Trump-Xi: a two-month truce, few specifics. [Equities / FX] Truce extended to 10 January; farm purchases, rare earths and tech controls deferred (Business Standard). Hang Seng −1.01%. Watch: export-control headlines as the visit ends. | | 11. Consumer footprint shrinks as mortgages cross 7.4%. [Equities] Starbucks closing 250 stores; McDonald's $8.5bn franchisee pledge; MND 30-year 7.45%, highest since April 2024; NKE −2.08% pre on 654K shares, no catalyst found. | | 12. Gold +1.13% to $4,346.50, silver +2.20%. [Commodities] Weaker dollar; gold/silver ratio 66.45 from 67.15; NEM +1.2% pre. |
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3 · Global Markets Overnight — Asia & Europe |
| Asia closes (Friday) |
| Index | Level | %Chg | Catalyst | | Nikkei 225 | 66,364.20 | +1.30% | Yen-strength shrugged off; Oracle Japan +7% on record quarter | | Topix | 4,128.59 | +1.31% | Broad; exporters held despite USD/JPY −0.8% | | Hang Seng | 24,510.09 | −1.01% | Financials, materials, tech led lower; thin summit follow-through | | HSCEI | No reliable data available at this time | — | CNBC and Bloomberg boards both blank | | S&P/ASX 200 | 8,665.00 | −0.43% | Rate-sensitive; AU 10Y 5.37% | | Nifty 50 (~1:30 PM IST) | 23,140.50 | +0.34% | Rebound after Thursday's −1.64%; NSE listing follow-through | | Kospi / Shanghai / TAIEX | Closed | — | Chuseok / Mid-Autumn holidays |
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| Europe (mid-session, ~7:00 AM ET) |
| Index | Level | %Chg | Leadership | | Stoxx 600 | 639.68 | +0.51% | Economically sensitive sectors lead; oil majors lag | | Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,315.59 | +0.69% | | | DAX | 25,431.63 | +0.65% | Despite GfK consumer-climate setback | | CAC 40 | 8,080.46 | −0.01% | TotalEnergies −0.5% | | FTSE 100 | 10,704.86 | +0.23% | BP >−2%, Shell −0.4% (CNBC) | | FTSE MIB | 51,991.35 | +0.87% | Banks; BTP spread tighter | | IBEX 35 | 19,761.10 | +0.96% | |
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| Global 10-year yields (CNBC ~7:09 AM ET; change vs prior close) |
| Market | Yield | Chg (bp) | Note | | Germany (Bund) | 3.599% | −1.2 | Bloomberg: flat at 3.60% | | U.K. (Gilt) | 5.354% | −3.1 | Bloomberg −3 bp | | Japan (JGB) | 3.080% | −0.2 | Bloomberg 3.05% at 3:59 AM | | Italy (BTP) | 4.536% | −2.7 | BTP-Bund 93.7 bp (−0.2 bp) | | France (OAT) | 4.683% | −3.1 | OAT-Bund 108.4 bp (−0.7 bp) |
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| Overnight data: German GfK/NIM consumer climate had a “significant setback” (CNBC; level not captured). What this hands the U.S. open: a modest, broad duration bid (gilts and OATs −3 bp), cyclical leadership that favours U.S. industrials and banks over energy, and a stronger yen that nicks Japan-exposed exporters and the carry trade. |
4 · Pre-Market Movers & Single-Name Catalysts |
| CNBC extended-hours quotes, 7:00-7:12 AM ET, % vs Thursday's close. Pre-market volume is thin before 8:00 AM; moves on under 10K shares are flagged. |
Up | AKAM +18.82% $131.18 — $11.6bn, seven-year Anthropic compute contract (364K shares). | | PPLI (People Inc., non-S&P) +9.66% $39.40 — WSJ: MGM discussing a bid. | | FSLY (non-S&P) +4.39% $27.85 — edge-compute read-through from Akamai after Thursday's −10.0%. | | P (Everpure) +3.26% $125.85 — extends Thursday's +11.15% on FY27 revenue guide $5.03-5.07bn (+37-38%). | | NET +2.34% $367.20 — Akamai read-through (10K shares). | | SNDK +2.03%, WDC +1.71%, STX +1.38% — memory/storage bounce after Thursday's selling. | | JBL +2.00% $316.90 — into its 30 Sep report (thin: 1.8K shares). | | AMD +1.88% $641.10; AVGO +1.35%; INTC +1.34% (2.0M shares); MU +1.31% $1,094.66. | | GLW +1.69%; UBS ADR +2.17%; UAL +1.27%, DAL +1.04% (lower fuel). | | NEM +1.22% — gold +1.13%. |
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Down | SCHL (non-S&P) −10.22% $31.27 — fiscal Q1 adjusted loss $3.63/share vs $2.52 a year ago; revenue $216.8m (−4%). | | NKE −2.08% $35.24 — 654K shares, no catalyst found in the window; reports 1 Oct after the close. | | MPC −1.39%, VLO −1.32%, DVN −1.23%, EOG −1.20%, OXY −1.15%, COP −0.88%, XOM −0.79%, CVX −0.77% — crude −1-2%. | | BP ADR −0.81% (London >−2%). | | PANW −0.57%; CAG −0.17%; COST −0.22% $894.50 (Section 5). |
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| After-hours → pre-market drift. AKAM: AH peak $133.21 (+20.65%) → $131.18 (+18.82%), a 1.8-point fade. COST: AH +0.22% (Benzinga) → −0.22%, the beat fully faded. PPLI: AH +9% → +9.66%, holding. MGM: −10.99% session → +0.32%, no rebound on its bidder role. |
Analyst rating actions | AKAM — Guggenheim, Buy, target $225 from $190: +103.8% vs $110.41 close, +71.5% vs $131.18 pre-market. | | AKAM — UBS (Roger Boyd), Neutral, target $148 from $143: +34.0% vs close, +12.8% vs pre-market. Evercore ISI reiterated Outperform (target not captured). | | COST — BofA Securities, target $1,095 from $1,200: +22.1% vs $896.48 close; shares −0.22%. | | DRI — BTIG reiterated Buy, $235: +13.4% vs $207.24. | | TSEM (non-S&P) — Mizuho initiates Outperform, $300: +38.1% vs $217.28; +3.15% pre-market. |
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| Corporate actions: MGM-People Inc. bid talks (WSJ); Starbucks closing 250 stores; McDonald's $8.5bn franchisee investment pledge; Amazon $100m Indiana robotics hub (WSJ); Oracle force majeure on Project Jupiter. No S&P 500 index change or large secondary was identified in the window. |
5 · Overnight Earnings Scorecard |
| Ticker | EPS act vs est | Revenue act vs est | Guidance / detail | Pre-mkt | Read-through | | COST (AMC) | $6.75 GAAP vs $6.52; ~$6.60 ex-refund vs $6.53 (LSEG) | $95.72bn vs $94.86bn | Comps +9.4% / +6.7% adj.; renewal 89.8%; fees $1.85bn vs $1.86bn | −0.22% | BJ, WMT, TGT | | SCHL (AMC, non-S&P) | −$3.63 adj. | $216.8m (−4% y/y) | Seasonal loss quarter | −10.22% | Limited | | TBN (BMO, non-S&P) | Pending | Pending | Tamboran fiscal Q4 due before the open | +2.07% | Beetaloo gas |
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| Bold = S&P 500 member. Costco's beat is 15 cents of one-off tariff refund; ex-refund it is ~1%. FactSet/LSEG aggregate scorecard not retrieved; no beat rate asserted. |
6 · U.S. Treasury Par Curve & Rates |
| Official par curve — 3:30 PM ET, Thursday 24 September (U.S. Treasury) |
| Tenor | 24 Sep | 23 Sep | Δ 1-day | 17 Sep | Δ 1-week | | 1 Mo | 4.01% | 3.99% | +2 | 3.97% | +4 | | 3 Mo | 4.24% | 4.19% | +5 | 4.12% | +12 | | 1 Yr | 4.51% | 4.49% | +2 | 4.40% | +11 | | 2 Yr | 4.87% | 4.85% | +2 | 4.67% | +20 | | 3 Yr | 4.99% | 4.97% | +2 | 4.75% | +24 | | 5 Yr | 5.03% | 4.99% | +4 | 4.78% | +25 | | 7 Yr | 5.10% | 5.05% | +5 | 4.86% | +24 | | 10 Yr | 5.18% | 5.11% | +7 | 4.94% | +24 | | 20 Yr | 5.53% | 5.45% | +8 | 5.32% | +21 | | 30 Yr | 5.47% | 5.40% | +7 | 5.29% | +18 |
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| Spread | 24 Sep | Δ 1-day | Δ 1-week | Live (7:15) | | 2s10s | +31 bp | +5 | +4 | +28.7 bp | | 3M10Y | +94 bp | +2 | +12 | +99.0 bp | | 2s30s | +60 bp | +5 | −2 | +58.9 bp |
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| Live pre-open (CNBC, 7:09-7:15 AM ET) vs official par close |
| Tenor | Live | Par 24 Sep | bp vs par | bp vs CNBC late-Thu | | 2Y | 4.876% | 4.87% | +0.6 | −1.9 | | 5Y | 5.020% | 5.03% | −1.0 | −0.7 | | 10Y | 5.163% | 5.18% | −1.7 | +0.1 | | 30Y | 5.465% | 5.47% | −0.5 | +0.3 |
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| Read. Against the 3:30 PM par snapshot the curve has bull-flattened slightly (2s10s 31 → 28.7 bp); against CNBC's later Thursday close it has bull-steepened (2-year −1.9 bp, 10-year +0.1 bp). The honest reading is that the overnight move is small and oil-led: gilts −3.1 bp and OATs −3.1 bp did more than Treasuries, and the Fed strip is unchanged at the front (ZQV6 96.105, ZQZ6 95.805), so this is imported relief, not a repricing of the policy path. Vendor gap: Bloomberg shows the 10-year −3 bp to 5.17% (7:09 AM) against its own later close. Supply and operations today: no coupon auction (the 2-, 5- and 7-year sales are done; the 7-year tailed 0.7 bp Thursday). Fed speakers Schmid 9:20 AM and Hammack 2:00 PM. Quarter-end is Wednesday 30 September. |
7 · U.S. Macroeconomic Calendar |
| ★ TODAY — Friday, September 25 |
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| ET | Release | Cons. | Prior | Sens. | What a beat / miss does | | 05:15 | Fed Williams remarks | — | — | Med | No new market-moving headline found in the window | | 08:30 | Durable goods m/m (Aug) | −0.4% | +1.1% | High | Pre-open gap risk; beat lifts 2Y, industrials | | 08:30 | Durables ex-transport | +0.6% | +0.4% | Med | Cleaner capex signal | | 08:30 | Core capital goods orders | +0.5% | +0.2% | Med | Beat = AI capex intact; semis, GEV/ETN | | 09:20 | Fed Schmid | — | — | Med | Hawk; hike-leaning remarks lift front end | | 10:00 | Michigan 1Y infl. exp. (Sep F) | 4.6% | 4.0% | V. High | ≥4.6% bear-flattens, hits NQ; ≤4.2% extends rally | | 10:00 | Michigan 5Y infl. exp. | 3.4% | 3.3% | High | Above 3.4% = term-premium risk | | 10:00 | Michigan sentiment (Sep F) | 47.6 | 51.7 | High | Miss hits discretionary (NKE, SBUX) | | 13:00 | Baker Hughes rigs | 453 | 452 | Low | Oil supply read | | 14:00 | Fed Hammack | — | — | Med | Hawk; late-day rates risk |
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| Consensus and prior from TradingEconomics (captured by the Thursday Closing Daily). The 8:30 durables print lands an hour before the cash open and is the morning's first gap risk; the 10:00 inflation-expectations print is the day's largest. |
| Overnight global data already released |
| Region | Release | Actual / detail | Reaction | | Germany | GfK / NIM consumer climate (Oct) | “Significant setback”; income expectations lowest since April | DAX still +0.65% | | Japan | MoF remarks (Katayama) | Trump raised weak-yen concern with Takaichi | USD/JPY −0.79% |
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| Next week |
| Date | ET | Release | Prior | Sens. | | Mon 9/28 | 10:30 | Dallas Fed manufacturing (Sep) | 11.6 | Med | | Tue 9/29 | 10:00 | JOLTS openings (Aug) | 7.271M | High | | Tue 9/29 | 10:00 | Conference Board confidence (Sep) | 89.4 | High | | Wed 9/30 | 08:15 | ADP employment (Sep) | 38K | High | | Wed 9/30 | 08:30 | Core PCE m/m / PCE y/y (Aug) | +0.2% / +3.7% | V. High | | Wed 9/30 | 09:45 | Chicago PMI (Sep) | 47.1 | Med | | Thu 10/1 | 08:30 | Initial claims | 197K | High | | Thu 10/1 | 10:00 | ISM manufacturing (Sep) / prices paid | 54.6 / 71.1 | High | | Fri 10/2 | 08:30 | Nonfarm payrolls / AHE (Sep) | 162K; 4.1% UR / +0.3% | V. High |
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| Look-ahead. Today's Michigan print is the last inflation-expectations read before core PCE (30 Sep), ISM prices paid (1 Oct, prior 71.1) and payrolls (2 Oct), the last labour print before the 28 October FOMC. The market is at 68.6%-73.5% for an October hike and 55.5% for a cumulative +50 bp by December; each of those prints can move the December bucket more than October. Quarter-end (30 Sep) and Micron (30 Sep AMC) share the same session as PCE. |
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8 · Fed Funds Futures & Rate Path |
| Current target range: 3.75%-4.00% (raised 25 bp on 16 September); IORB 3.90%; ON RRP 3.75%. |
| (i) 28 October FOMC — CME FedWatch alongside Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor |
| Target (bps) | CME NOW (~7 AM) | CME 24 Sep eve | CME 23 Sep | CME 17 Sep | CME 24 Aug | | 350-375 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 43.0% | | 375-400 (hold) | 31.4% | 32.5% | 29.1% | 44.6% | 46.0% | | 400-425 (+25) | 68.6% | 67.5% | 70.9% | 55.4% | 11.0% |
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| Target | Investing NOW (6:55 AM) | Prev. day | Prev. week | | 3.75-4.00 (hold) | 26.5% | 24.2% | 40.3% | | 4.00-4.25 (+25) | 73.5% | 75.8% | 59.7% |
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| CME NOW is Benzinga's pre-market citation of FedWatch (68.6%); the hold figure is its complement (100 − 68.6 = 31.4). The lagged CME columns are the Closing Daily's FedWatch captures. Vendor gap reconciled: Investing.com 73.5% vs CME 68.6% = 4.9 points on the same ZQV6 price (96.105); Investing.com applies the whole October contract to the meeting while CME weights the three post-meeting days of October, so it needs a larger price move per unit of probability. Both columns sum to 100.0%. |
| (ii) Momentum & (iii) macro hooks |
| October +25 on Investing.com: 59.7% a week ago → 75.8% yesterday morning → 73.5% now; December +50: 43.9% → 58.8% → 55.5%. The ramp came from the 16 September hike, Wednesday's 3.1 bp 5-year tail and Williams calling another hike “reasonable”; the overnight dip reflects cheaper oil (Brent −1%) rather than any Fed speech. Hooks: Michigan 1Y expectations today, core PCE 30 Sep, ISM prices 1 Oct, payrolls 2 Oct. |
| (iv) 2026 meeting distributions — current [prev day] [prev week] |
| Meeting | 3.75-4.00 | 4.00-4.25 | 4.25-4.50 | Cum. above | Sum | | Oct 28 | 26.5% [24.2] [40.3] | 73.5% [75.8] [59.7] | — | 73.5% | 100.0 | | Dec 9 | 6.5% [5.4] [10.7] | 38.0% [35.8] [45.4] | 55.5% [58.8] [43.9] | 93.5% | 100.0 |
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| (v) 2027 modal-range path |
| Meeting | ZQ price | vs Thu eve | Modal range | Prob. [pd] [pw] | Cum. above | Sum | | Jan 27 | 95.735 | 0.0 bp | 4.25-4.50 | 46.3% [46.7] [44.5] | 96.9% | 100.0 | | Mar 17 | 95.540 | 0.0 bp | 4.50-4.75 | 40.8% [41.9] [34.6] | 99.0% | 100.0 | | Apr 28 | 95.445 | +0.5 bp | 4.50-4.75 | 36.3% [36.0] [35.1] | 99.4% | 100.0 | | Jun 9 | 95.290 | +1.0 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 31.3% [32.1] [23.4] | 99.7% | 100.1 | | Jul 28 | 95.255 | +1.0 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 31.2% [31.9] [23.6] | 99.7% | 100.0 | | Sep 15 | 95.210 | +1.0 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 30.9% [31.5] [24.5] | 99.7% | 100.0 | | Oct 27 | 95.195 | +1.0 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 30.9% [31.3] [22.3] | 99.7% | 100.0 | | Dec 8 | 95.195 | 0.0 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 30.4% [30.2] [20.4] | 99.4% | 99.8 |
|
| (vi) Year-end probability ladders |
| Outcome | YE 2026 (Dec 9) | YE 2027 (Dec 8) | | Cut, any size | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Hold 3.75-4.00 | 6.5% | 0.4% | | +25 (4.00-4.25) | 38.0% | 3.3% | | +50 (4.25-4.50) | 55.5% | 13.0% | | +75 (4.50-4.75) | 0.0% | 26.8% | | +100 (4.75-5.00) | 0.0% | 30.4% | | +125 (5.00-5.25) | 0.0% | 18.9% | | +150 (5.25-5.50) | 0.0% | 6.1% | | +175 (5.50-5.75) | 0.0% | 0.9% | | +200 (5.75-6.00) | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Sum | 100.0% | 99.8% |
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| (vii) Rounding: every 2026 row and Jan-Apr/Jul-Oct 2027 sum to 100.0; June 2027 sums to 100.1 and December 2027 to 99.8 on the vendor's one-decimal figures. Implied terminal rate at the cheapest contract: 100 − 95.195 = 4.805%, 1.0 bp below Thursday evening's 4.815%. |
| (viii) Interpretation. Where it is: one more hike in October is the base case (68.6%-73.5%) and a second by December is a coin flip leaning yes (55.5%), with a 4.75%-5.00% modal range by mid-2027. What moved overnight: almost nothing at the front; the 2027 strip richened 0.5-1.0 bp with oil, and the December +50 bucket is 3.3 points lower than yesterday morning. What can move it today: the 10:00 Michigan one-year expectation; a 4.6%+ print is the kind of number that moved December last week. Practical trade: the carried long ZQZ6 / short ZQZ7 spread (Closing Daily, mark +15.0 bp) is the expression for a hot print; for a soft print, the cleaner hedge is receiving the 2-year into 2 October payrolls. Invalidation for the hot-print view: 1Y expectations at or below 4.2%. |
|
9 · FX |
| Pair | Level (ET) | Chg vs prior close | O/N range | Driver | | DXY | 100.947 (7:15) | −0.33% | 100.954-101.305 | Snaps the run; yields and oil lower | | EUR/USD | 1.1408 (7:09) | +0.25% | 1.1369-1.1408 | At the session high | | USD/JPY | 157.58 (7:15) | −0.79% yen | 157.61-158.91 | Katayama: Trump raised weak-yen concern | | GBP/USD | 1.3253 (7:09) | +0.29% | 1.3210-1.3254 | Gilts −3 bp | | USD/CHF | 0.8284 (7:09) | +0.11% USD | — | Franc lags the yen again | | USD/CAD | 1.4132 (7:09) | −0.01% | 1.4134-1.4154 | Loonie flat despite WTI −1.8% | | AUD/USD | 0.7035 (7:09) | +0.36% | 0.7005-0.7035 | Risk-on, dollar-down | | USD/MXN | 17.6448 (7:09) | −0.41% USD | 17.6507-17.7630 | EM carry relief | | USD/KRW (offshore) | 1,352.92 (7:09) | −0.97% USD | 1,354-1,369 | Seoul shut; offshore only | | USD/CNH | 6.7226 (Bloomberg) | little changed | — | Onshore closed; summit extension |
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| Quote basis: CNBC spot, change vs CNBC's prior-day close; green = foreign currency stronger vs USD. The %Chg for pairs quoted per dollar is shown from the foreign-currency side where marked. |
| The take. The informative cross is USD/JPY: the yen gained more (0.79%) than the dollar index lost (0.33%) on a night when JGB yields were flat, so this is policy risk, not rate differentials. Tokyo intervened near these levels before, and the 31 July joint statement is now back in play. The franc (USD/CHF +0.11%) again failed to bid, confirming the franc trades rate differentials, not risk. Equity translation: a weaker dollar helps the S&P foreign-revenue cohort (semis, staples exporters) at the margin and eases pressure on EM and commodity beta (FCX +0.6%, NEM +1.2% pre-market); a yen spike above 155 would threaten the yen-funded carry that has leaned on U.S. tech. |
|
10 · Commodities |
| Contract | Price (6:59 ET) | Chg vs settle | %Chg | YTD* | Driver | | WTI (Nov) | $92.90 | −$1.71 | −1.81% | +64.4% | Hormuz phased-deal talks | | Brent (Nov) | $105.52 | −$1.08 | −1.01% | +75.0% | Low $104.51; Brent-WTI $12.62 | | Natural gas (Nov) | $3.168 | −$0.129 | −3.91% | −13.7% | Front rolled to Nov (see note) | | RBOB (Nov) | $3.4734 | −$0.0912 | −2.56% | +108.4% | Products weaker than crude | | Heating oil (Nov) | $4.7200 | −$0.0103 | −0.22% | +124.1% | Distillate holds | | Gold (Dec) | $4,346.50 | +$48.50 | +1.13% | −1.1% | Dollar −0.33% | | Silver (Dec) | $65.41 | +$1.408 | +2.20% | −10.6% | High beta to dollar | | Copper (Dec) | $6.7905 | +$0.0005 | +0.01% | +17.9% | China closed; flat |
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| *YTD is TradingEconomics spot through Thursday's close (Closing Daily), not a futures return on these contracts. Contract months: CNBC's continuous @NG/@RB/@HO prior settles ($3.297 / $3.5646 / $4.7303) differ from the October settles the Closing Daily published ($3.227 / $3.5497 / $4.7967), so these rows are the November contracts. Crude and metals are the same months as Thursday's settles ($94.61 WTI, $106.60 Brent, $4,298.00 gold, $64.002 silver). |
| The take. Crude is giving back the Houthi premium, not the Hormuz premium: Brent at $105.52 is still 75% up on the year and the Reuters account has Iran calling diplomacy's chances “extremely low”. The curve tell is Brent-WTI at $12.62, wider than Thursday's $12.00, so the seaborne marker still carries the route risk. Distillate crack on Nov: $4.72 × 42 − $92.90 = $105.34; gasoline $3.4734 × 42 − $92.90 = $52.98. Gold/silver ratio 66.45 (from 67.15): silver outperforming signals a dollar move more than a haven bid. Equity read-through: airlines and chemicals get the fuel relief (UAL +1.3%); E&Ps and refiners trade 1%-1.4% lower; miners (NEM) bid on gold. |
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11 · Credit & Funding |
| Measure | Latest | d/d | w/w | Context | | ICE BofA IG OAS | 77 bp (23 Sep) | 0 | −1 | 2026 tight; 77-80 since 14 Sep; YTD −2 (from 79) | | ICE BofA HY OAS | 273 bp (23 Sep) | +5 | +3 | Range 266-276 since 14 Sep; YTD −10 | | CCC & lower OAS | 1,093 bp (23 Sep) | +18 | +17 | Widest since 14 Sep; YTD +205 | | CDX IG / HY 5y | No reliable data available at this time | — | — | No public quote; see Data Notes | | HYG / LQD (pre-mkt) | $77.89 / $103.15 | unch | — | Thu −0.27% / −0.71% | | SOFR (23 Sep) | 3.87% | 0 | — | $2,946bn; 24 Sep print due 8:00 AM | | EFFR / IORB | 3.88% / 3.90% | 0 | — | SOFR−IORB −3 bp | | ON RRP take-up | $461m (23 Sep) | +$8m | — | No buffer into quarter-end | | Reserve balances | $2.930tn | — | −$83.6bn | Week to 23 Sep |
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| FRED's ICE BofA series still end at 23 September (one-business-day lag plus the 7 AM timing), so the table describes Wednesday's close; Thursday's direction comes from the ETF proxies (LQD −0.71% on duration, HYG −0.27%). Supply and idiosyncratic: Akamai's ~$5.5bn capex plan makes it an IG/convert candidate; banks sweetened loan terms for the Nestlé-Platinum Water deal (Bloomberg); Pimco faces a loss on an AAA office-CMBS tranche after an 85% writedown in Philadelphia (Bloomberg); Bitget reported a $352m hack. Friday IG calendars are usually light and none was identified. |
| The take. The order of repricing is classic late-cycle: CCC +18 bp and HY +5 bp on Wednesday while IG sat at its 77 bp tight. Overnight relief in rates helps the IG all-in yield story (buyers of 5%-plus paper) more than HY. The funding tell is quarter-end: SOFR 3 bp under IORB with ON RRP at $461m and reserves down $84bn means a SOFR print at or above 3.90% into 30 September is the warning; the 8:00 AM print for 24 September is the next data point. |
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12 · Trading Views (desk-style, not personalized advice) |
| 1. Akamai: gap-and-go only above $133. Expression: long AKAM against short NET (beta-neutral, 0.5x gross) only if AKAM holds above the $133.21 after-hours high after the first 15 minutes; otherwise stand aside for a gap fill toward $120.80 (half-gap). Catalyst: the 9:30 auction imbalance and any financing plan for the $5.5bn capex. Invalidation: a close below $126 (the 7 AM pre-market low region). Sizing: small; UBS's Neutral at $148 caps the easy upside. | | 2. Duration relief: long SMH against short XLE for the morning. Expression: dollar-neutral, SMH +1.32% pre vs energy −1%. Catalyst: 8:30 durables, 10:00 Michigan. Invalidation: 10-year back above 5.20% or Brent above $107. Sizing: quarter; exit into the 10:00 print if 1Y expectations are ≥4.6%. | | 3. Carried: pay the 10-year against the 2-year (2s10s steepener). Entered at Thursday's par +31 bp; live 2s10s +28.7 bp, so mark ~−2.3 bp on the par basis. Catalyst: Michigan 5Y expectations (3.4% cons.) and next week's supply. Invalidation: 2s10s below +22 bp. Sizing: quarter, DV01-neutral. | | 4. Short USD/JPY into intervention risk. Expression: spot or 1-week 155 puts at 157.58. Catalyst: any MoF rate check; Michigan miss. Invalidation: 159.00 (above Thursday's 158.91 high). Target: 155.00. Sizing: half; U.S. data can overwhelm jawboning. | | 5. Event pair: long PPLI against short MGM. Expression: dollar-neutral after the open. Thesis: the target gains and the acquirer levers up into 5%-plus corporate yields. Catalyst: a formal MGM proposal “in the coming days” (WSJ). Invalidation: MGM denies interest, or PPLI below $36 (Thursday's close). Sizing: eighth. |
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| Vol note. VIX 15.11 at 7:15 AM (−3.6%) against an October VX future of 17.70: contango of 2.59 points, so the market is not paying up for near-term protection. The VIX-implied daily move is 15.11 / √252 = 0.95%, about 73 S&P points on the 7,724 implied open; an SPX 0DTE straddle quote was not retrieved. Levels: prior close 7,704.13; Thursday low 7,662.57 and high 7,719.01; overnight ES range 7,748.50-7,792.50, which is 7,685.6-7,729.6 in cash terms after the 62.87-point basis. The tape is trading around 7,700-7,725. Not personalized investment advice; verify independently and size to your own mandate. |
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13 · S&P 500 Earnings Calendar |
| ★ TODAY — Friday, September 25 |
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| BMO: no S&P 500 reporter. AMC: no S&P 500 reporter. Non-members: Tamboran (TBN) before the open (+2.07% pre-market). Option-implied moves: not applicable (no index reporters). |
| Current week (Sep 21 - Sep 25) |
|
| Mon 9/21-Tue 9/22 — completed. Reactions recorded in the 21-23 Sep editions. |
| Wed 9/23 — completed. Cintas (CTAS) −3.44%; Paychex (PAYX) −8.77%. |
| Thu 9/24 — completed. BMO: Darden Restaurants (DRI) −3.02% (Olive Garden comp 1.1% vs 1.7%). AMC: Costco Wholesale (COST) −0.22% pre-market. |
| Fri 9/25. No S&P 500 reporter. |
| Next week (Sep 28 - Oct 2) |
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| Mon 9/28. No S&P 500 reporter. |
| Tue 9/29. BMO: Carnival (CCL), CarMax (KMX). |
| Wed 9/30. BMO: Jabil (JBL), FactSet (FDS), Conagra Brands (CAG). AMC: Micron Technology (MU). |
| Thu 10/1. BMO: Accenture (ACN), McCormick (MKC). AMC: Nike (NKE). |
| Fri 10/2. No S&P 500 reporter. |
| Source: the Closing Daily's Nasdaq-calendar roster, screened against the S&P 500 component list; buckets not clock times. Diff vs the prior calendar: no additions, removals or re-datings. Pre-market marks for next week's names: MU +1.31%, JBL +2.00%, NKE −2.08%, CCL +0.98%, KMX +0.64%, ACN +0.11%. Micron (30 Sep AMC) is the week's AI-memory read. |
14 · Risk Map — Today's Session |
| ★ TODAY — Event clock, Friday, September 25 (full session, 4:00 PM close) |
|
| 8:00 NY Fed SOFR for 24 Sep (quarter-end funding tell) · 8:30 durable goods (Aug) — first gap risk |
| 9:20 Fed Schmid · 9:30 cash open (implied SPX ~7,724) · 10:00 Michigan final: 1Y expectations 4.6% cons. — the day's largest risk |
| 13:00 Baker Hughes rigs · 14:00 Fed Hammack · 16:00 close; weekend Hormuz and Xi-visit headline risk |
| Crowded consensuses to stress-test |
| “The long end keeps selling.” Breaks on a 10-year below 5.10% (live 5.163%). | | “October hike is done.” 68.6%-73.5% priced; a 1Y expectations print at or below 4.0% would pull it toward 55%. | | “AI capex is rate-proof.” Oracle's force majeure is the first crack; breaks on a second named project delay. | | “Oil has a floor above $100.” Brent below $100 on a signed phase one. |
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| Two-sided tape and structural watch. Upside: a confirmed Hormuz phase one (Brent toward $95, 10-year toward 5.05%). Downside: talks collapse (Iran's official already calls the odds “extremely low”), a hot Michigan print, or a yen intervention that forces carry unwinds. Carried items: quarter-end funding (30 Sep), the 20-year's cheapness, CCC spreads at 1,093 bp, and the MOVE index at 95.45 (23 Sep). What the VIX is and is not pricing: 15.11 implies a ~0.95% (~73-point) day, enough for a normal data reaction; it is not pricing a correlated rates-plus-oil shock of the kind Wednesday and Thursday delivered, with the MOVE-to-VIX ratio near 6.3. |
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| Source Links (Section 15) and Data Notes & Conflicts (Section 16) are in the companion file US_CrossAsset_Opening_2026-09-25_DataNotes.txt. |
| U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Opening Daily — Friday, September 25, 2026. Data as of ~7:15 AM ET. Prepared for institutional investors; not personalized investment advice. Sources: CNBC, Bloomberg, WSJ, Reuters, Benzinga, Investing.com, FRED, NY Fed, U.S. Treasury. |