U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Closing Daily Friday, September 25, 2026 · U.S. session close, 16:00 ET Institutional cross-asset briefing · all data captured after the close · sources named in-line · full Data Notes in the companion _DataNotes.txt |
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The tape in one paragraph. The bond rout paused at the front and not at the back, and equities took the pause as permission. The S&P 500 rose 39.28 points, or 0.51%, to 7,743.41, the Dow led with +0.93% to 51,828.62 and snapped a three-day losing streak, and all three major indexes finished the week higher despite Wednesday's selloff. The trigger was oil: the New York Times reported, per Bloomberg, that Iran has proposed a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and revive nuclear talks, and Brent fell 2.02% to $104.45 on the board (WSJ and Investrade: $104.32). The curve twisted rather than rallied: the par 2-year fell 6 bp to 4.81% while the 30-year rose 2 bp to 5.49% and the 20-year to 5.54%, so short-dated bonds outperformed on Bloomberg's account while the long end held a two-decade high; WSJ put the 10-year's 5.18% close at a fresh 19-year closing high after an intraday 5.228%. The fed funds strip richened 1.5 bp in December 2026 and 4.5 bp in December 2027, and CME cut the October hike to 64.2% from 68.6%. Breadth turned: 315 advancers against 175 decliners on the 492-line component board. Chips led — SOX +1.41%, its longest weekly advance since May on Bloomberg's count, with ON Semiconductor +5.54%, Microchip +5.36% and Microsoft +3.66% — while Meta fell 3.33% as its 32% monthly run was trimmed and Intel fell 3.45%. The yen had its best day in weeks, USD/JPY -1.03% to 157.233, after Treasury Secretary Bessent said he discussed "the desirability" of a strong currency with Japan's finance minister. The macro rule, both windows: one Very-high release in the past twelve hours — Michigan one-year inflation expectations, final, 4.6% against a 4.6% consensus (4.0% in August; Investrade had a 4.7% estimate) — with sentiment at 48.1 against 47.6 and durable goods 0.0% against -0.4%; and none due in the next twenty-four hours, the weekend. VIX fell 5.11% to 14.87. |
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| Index / Instrument | Close | Chg | % | Note | | S&P 500 | 7,743.41 | +39.28 | +0.51% | Range 7,693.08-7,752.07; breadth 315-175 | | Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,828.62 | +478.64 | +0.93% | Snapped a three-day losing streak | | Nasdaq Composite | 27,068.72 | +129.34 | +0.48% | Range 26,876.27-27,122.76 | | Nasdaq 100 | 30,608.13 | +129.28 | +0.42% | Range 30,413.58-30,667.56 | | Russell 2000 | 2,837.55 | +1.98 | +0.07% | WSJ 16:30 basis; Investrade 2,844.32 | | SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor) | 12,668.93 | +176.39 | +1.41% | WSJ basis; range 12,549.59-12,732.78 | | VIX | 14.87 | -0.80 | -5.11% | Range 14.68-15.94 | | UST 1-year | 4.50% | -1 bp | - | | | UST 2-year | 4.81% | -6 bp | - | WSJ 4.868% at 17:04 | | UST 3-year | 4.94% | -5 bp | - | | | UST 5-year | 4.98% | -5 bp | - | Belly led the rally | | UST 7-year | 5.06% | -4 bp | - | | | UST 10-year | 5.17% | -1 bp | - | WSJ 5.165%; intraday high 5.228% | | UST 20-year | 5.54% | +1 bp | - | | | UST 30-year | 5.49% | +2 bp | - | WSJ 5.496%, above 5.5% intraday | | UST 3-month bill | 4.24% | 0 bp | - | | | UST 1-month bill | 4.04% | +3 bp | - | Spans quarter-end | | WTI (Nov, NYMEX) | $92.44 | -$2.17 | -2.29% | Third-party settle $92.41 | | Brent (Nov, ICE) | $104.45 | -$2.15 | -2.02% | Third-party settle $104.32 | | Gasoline RBOB (Oct) | $3.4098 | -$0.1111 | -3.16% | Expiring 30 Sep | | Heating oil (Oct) | $4.8229 | +$0.0926 | +1.96% | Rose against crude | | Natural gas (Oct) | $3.214 | -$0.083 | -2.52% | After Thursday's +9.06% | | Gold (Comex Dec) | $4,320.50 | +$22.50 | +0.52% | Third-party settle $4,321.20 | | Silver (Comex Dec) | $64.710 | +$0.708 | +1.11% | | | Copper (Comex Dec) | $6.7790 | -$0.0110 | -0.16% | | | DXY | 101.031 | -0.229 | -0.23% | Seven-day winning streak ends |
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| 2 · Market Hot Spots & Movers |
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| 1. Oil gave back the Houthi premium on a diplomacy headline, and the equity tape followed the barrel. Brent fell 2.02% to $104.45 on the Investing.com board and WTI 2.29% to $92.44; WSJ and Investrade both record Brent at $104.32, -2.1%, and Investrade has WTI at $92.41. Bloomberg attributed the move to a New York Times report that Iran has proposed a plan under which Hormuz would reopen and nuclear talks would be revived, and WSJ described the reports as unconfirmed. Energy was the worst Finviz group at -0.96%, with Devon -3.78%, APA -2.15%, Occidental -2.05%, EQT -2.04%, EOG -1.76% and ConocoPhillips -1.58%. The products split: heating oil rose 1.96% while gasoline fell 3.16%, so the distillate crack widened to $110.12. Forward catalyst: confirmation or denial of the Iranian proposal over the weekend — the tape has priced a headline, not a deal. |
| 2. The curve twisted: the front rallied, the long end did not. The par 2-year fell 6 bp to 4.81% and the 5-year 5 bp to 4.98%, while the 30-year rose 2 bp to 5.49% and the 20-year 1 bp to 5.54%; 2s10s steepened 5 bp to 36 bp and 2s30s 8 bp to 68 bp. WSJ's 30-year settled at 5.5% after breaking above that level for the first time in 22 years. The policy strip took the rally — ZQZ6 +1.5 bp to 95.820 and ZQZ7 +4.5 bp to 95.240 — so the market took a little hiking out of 2027 while charging the same for duration. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said long yields reflect a stronger growth outlook, concerns about government debt and expectations for more hikes. Forward catalyst: core PCE on 30 September and payrolls on 2 October. |
| 3. Semiconductors extended their run on the analog names. SOX rose 1.41% to 12,668.93, which Bloomberg called the chip gauge's longest weekly advance since May. The leaders were analog and power: ON Semiconductor +5.54% to $77.20, Microchip +5.36% to $78.69 after launching 65V digital power monitors for 48V systems, NXP +3.44%, Analog Devices +2.87%, Texas Instruments +2.74%, Qualcomm +3.97% and Teradyne +2.75%. The AI leaders barely moved — Nvidia +0.19%, AMD +0.22% despite BofA lifting its target to $720, Micron +0.16% into Wednesday's print — and Intel fell 3.45% to $122.99, extending a profit-taking pullback. Forward catalyst: Micron after the close on 30 September. |
| 4. Microsoft and Meta traded places. Microsoft rose 3.66% to $516.17, the largest megacap gain; Bloomberg reported it is merging the consumer and workplace versions of Copilot into one corporate product and ceding personal chatbots to OpenAI, Google and Meta. Meta fell 3.33% to $751.66 as 24/7 Wall St. described profit-taking after a 32% monthly run on its Muse agent, and Finviz communication services was the second-worst group at -0.58%. Forward catalyst: whether Meta holds the $750 area into quarter-end rebalancing. |
| 5. Akamai faded most of its after-hours spike. The stock closed +3.20% at $113.94, against a Thursday after-hours high of $129.60 on the $11.6bn, seven-year Anthropic contract — a 12% give-back from the peak. The warrant for about 5% of the company at $111.33 and the $5.5bn capex requirement are what the market marked down. Forward catalyst: the financing plan for the capex. |
| 6. Consumer internet and healthcare services rebounded. Booking +4.14%, Airbnb +4.02%, DoorDash +3.11% and PayPal +4.64% to $55.04 led a consumer-cyclical recovery; CVS +4.79% to $89.13, Humana +4.63% to $397.93 and HCA +2.86% led managed care. No single catalyst for the managed-care move appeared in the coverage read; the two travel names recover part of the 5%-8% losses taken on Wednesday's Meta Muse day. |
| 7. Breadth reversed two sessions of narrowness, but the cap-weighted index still won. The 492-line component board ran 315 advancers against 175 decliners, after 164 against 328 on each of the previous two days. Yet SPY rose 0.54% against RSP +0.40%, a 0.14-point cap premium supplied by Microsoft, Apple (+1.53% to $341.07) and the chip names. Forward catalyst: quarter-end on 30 September. |
| 8. Deal names kept unwinding. Gen Digital fell another 6.29% to $21.62, the worst line in the index, on top of Thursday's 12.05% after the FT's report of an approach to GoDaddy — and GoDaddy fell 3.64% to $97.14, giving back most of Thursday's 4.60% jump. MGM fell 3.31% to $32.58; Bloomberg, citing WSJ, reported MGM is discussing a bid for Barry Diller's People Inc., which owns roughly 27% of MGM. Paramount Skydance fell 2.16% to $9.96. |
| Upside, with catalysts |
| Industrial and electrical: Generac (GNRC) +5.09% to $208.14, Trane (TT) +3.63%, Johnson Controls +3.33%, Carrier +2.77%. Hardware: Dell Technologies (DELL) +5.01% to $562.89, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) +4.22%. Consumer and autos: BorgWarner (BWA) +4.86%, Mohawk (MHK) +4.76%, Aptiv +2.78%, General Motors +2.56%, Norwegian Cruise Line +2.92%, Carnival +2.11% into Tuesday's print. Services: Gartner (IT) +4.78% to $187.90. Staples: Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) +3.47%. Costco (COST) +2.93% to $922.77 after its fiscal fourth-quarter beat, which Bloomberg attributed partly to a tariff-refund benefit. Transports recovered part of Thursday's fuel sell-off: FedEx +2.26%, UPS +2.07%. Financials: JPMorgan +1.33% to $343.06. |
| Downside, with catalysts |
| Charter Communications (CHTR) -3.95% to $112.91. Security software, a second weak day for the complex: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) -3.91% to $374.67, CrowdStrike (CRWD) -2.91%, Fortinet (FTNT) -2.92%, Axon -3.35%. Darden (DRI) -3.61% to $199.75, a second day after the Olive Garden comp miss. Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) -3.57%, on a day WSJ reported regulators examining nearly identical trades on Kalshi and Bloomberg reported Polymarket wagers on bank failures drew FDIC concern. Staples and materials: General Mills -3.42%, Conagra -2.42% into Wednesday's print, Campbell's -2.42%, LyondellBasell -3.39%, CF Industries -3.18%, Mosaic -2.87%. Also: ONEOK -2.80%, WW Grainger -2.84%, CDW -2.89%, Equinix -2.58%, Iron Mountain -2.38%, Chipotle -2.12%, Shopify -2.00%, Oracle -1.75% to $137.10, Salesforce -1.76%, Tesla -1.54%. |
| Analyst actions |
- AMD +0.22% to $630.63: BofA raised its target to $720 from $620, 14.2% upside, per Investrade.
- Nike -0.67% to $35.75: BofA downgraded, and Bloomberg reported Wall Street's positive-rating share on the stock is at a 25-year low; target not in the coverage read, no upside computed. Nike reports on 1 October.
- Twilio (not an index member): HSBC cut to reduce with a $211 target, per Investrade.
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| The intraday fade / reversal worth recording |
| The 10-year traded to 5.228% intraday and closed at 5.17% on the par curve, a 6 bp reversal inside the session on WSJ's high; the same turn showed in the VIX, which traded to 15.94 and closed at 14.87. Akamai's 12% fade from its after-hours high of $129.60 to a $113.94 close is the single-name version of the same day: the headline was bought, then sold. |
| 3 · Headline News — Bloomberg Markets & WSJ |
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| 1. "Stocks Climb as Oil Retreats on US-Iran Deal Hopes: Markets Wrap" (Bloomberg; WSJ ran the same story as "Stocks Rise to Cap Week of Increasing Yields, Volatile Oil Prices") — the Iranian proposal took Brent 2.1% lower to $104.32 and lifted the S&P 500 0.51%; see Section 11. |
| 2. "Treasury Yields at Multi-Year Highs Ahead of PCE, Payrolls" (WSJ) — the 30-year held 5.49% on the par curve while the 2-year fell 6 bp; see Section 6. |
| 3. "Fed's Hammack Says Yields Reflect Growth, US Debt and Rate Path" (Bloomberg) — a Fed official naming debt as a driver of the term premium, with CME's October hike at 64.2%; see Section 8. |
| 4. "Why High Bond Yields Look Like the New Normal" (Bloomberg) — the week's framing piece, on a week the par 30-year rose 15 bp; see Section 6. |
| 5. "Ellison Pledges $9.2 Billion More in Oracle Shares as Collateral" (Bloomberg) — Oracle fell 1.75% to $137.10 a day after a 3.49% drop; see Section 2. |
| 6. "Oracle Notice to Weigh on Data Center Debt, Morgan Stanley Says" (Bloomberg) — AI-infrastructure credit is under scrutiny in a week HY widened 7 bp on FRED's latest print; see Section 9. |
| 7. "Wall Street's Nike Fandom Lowest in 25 Years as BofA Downgrades" (Bloomberg) — Nike fell 0.67% to $35.75 into its 1 October report; see Section 5. |
| 8. "$5 Billion Flurry of Nearly Identical Kalshi Trades Draws Scrutiny" (WSJ) — prediction-market plumbing under review on a day Cboe fell 3.57%; see Section 2. |
| 9. "Hedge Funds Cut Bullish Yen Bets as BOJ Held Back on Rate Vows" (Bloomberg) — positioning was light into Bessent's strong-yen remark, and USD/JPY fell 1.03%; see Section 10. |
| 4 · Sector Performance — September 25, 2026 |
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| Sector | 1-Day | 1-Week | YTD | | Technology | +0.85% | +3.06% | +30.26% | | Financial | +0.79% | -1.26% | +4.03% | | Industrials | +0.76% | +0.25% | +9.03% | | Basic Materials | +0.40% | -1.00% | +13.32% | | Consumer Defensive | +0.40% | +0.17% | +4.81% | | Utilities | +0.39% | -2.95% | -7.26% | | Healthcare | +0.38% | +0.92% | +8.70% | | Consumer Cyclical | +0.08% | -0.52% | -8.10% | | Real Estate | -0.23% | -1.34% | +2.77% | | Communication Services | -0.58% | +1.59% | +2.10% | | Energy | -0.96% | -2.89% | +35.19% |
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Source: Finviz group screener, Performance table view (g=sector&v=140&o=name), read in the local Chrome browser after the close. 1-Day is the Change % column, 1-Week Perf Week, YTD Perf YTD. Finviz classification, not GICS. |
| Eight green, three red, and a best-to-worst spread of 1.81 percentage points against Thursday's 2.71 — a broad, low-dispersion up day, the mirror of the narrow sessions that preceded it. Thursday's leader became Friday's second-worst: communication services fell 0.58% as Meta gave back 3.33%, while technology led on the analog chips and Microsoft +3.66%. Energy fell 0.96% with the barrel and is -2.89% on the week; utilities rose 0.39% but remain -2.95% on the week, the worst weekly line, after the long end's move. Relative volume was light everywhere except energy (1.11), consistent with a Friday relief session rather than a rotation. |
| The YTD reconciliation holds for a fourth session. Compounding each group's 24 September YTD by Friday's one-day move reproduces the published YTD to 0.01 percentage points or better at all eleven groups. Worked examples: technology 1.2916 x 1.0085 = 1.30258, +30.26% against +30.26%; energy 1.3649 x 0.9904 = 1.35180, +35.18% against +35.19%; utilities 0.9238 x 1.0039 = 0.92740, -7.26% against -7.26%. No group is flagged. |
| Finviz's financials +0.79% sits close to the component board's evidence — JPMorgan +1.33% — while exchange operators lagged (Cboe -3.57%). Finviz technology holds Microsoft, which GICS also classes as technology, so the leader agrees on both bases. CNBC's GICS tally was not read this session; the component board supports both ends of the ranking, with Microsoft and the analog chips at the top and the exploration and production names at the bottom. |
| 5 · S&P 500 Earnings Calendar — Current & Next Week (S&P 500 components only) |
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| Sourcing, disclosed. The Earnings Whispers day pages remain behind a cookie-and-usage-agreement consent banner, which this unattended session did not accept. The rosters below come from the Nasdaq earnings calendar API for each date, called from a nasdaq.com tab, screened name by name against the 492-line Investing.com S&P 500 component capture taken the same session. Nasdaq's buckets are before-open or after-close rather than clock times, so no clock times are asserted; confirm every time against company investor relations before trading a date. |
| Current week (Sep 21 - Sep 25) — remaining sessions |
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| All S&P 500 reporters this week have reported. The next index reporters are Carnival and CarMax on Tuesday 9/29. |
| Next week (Sep 28 - Oct 2) |
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| Day | Before the open (BMO) | After the close (AMC) | | Mon 9/28 | No S&P 500 reporter on either bucket. | - | | Tue 9/29 | Carnival (CCL), CarMax (KMX). | - | | Wed 9/30 | Jabil (JBL), FactSet (FDS), Conagra Brands (CAG). | Micron Technology (MU). | | Thu 10/1 | Accenture (ACN), McCormick (MKC). | Nike (NKE). | | Fri 10/2 | No S&P 500 reporter on either bucket. | - |
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| Changes vs. the prior calendar (9/24 report): |
- Friday 9/25 is deleted under the forward-only rule; it carried no index reporter.
- No additions, removals or re-datings among S&P 500 names. Next week's nine names are identical to Thursday's capture in date and bucket, and all nine appear on the same-session component capture. McCormick's voting and non-voting lines both appear on the vendor calendar for 10/1 and are listed once. CarMax (market value $8.0bn on Nasdaq's field) and Conagra ($7.0bn) are small for the index but remain members on the capture.
- Non-members on the covered dates, listed so nobody mistakes their absence for an omission: Jefferies on 9/28 after the close; Acuity on 10/1; Hub Group on 10/1 with no time supplied.
- What the forward calendar hands the desk: Micron after the close on 30 September reports from $1,082.28 into a chip rally it has not joined — +0.16% on a day the SOX rose 1.41%. Accenture reports from $176.11 and Nike from $35.75 the same day as a BofA downgrade put Street sentiment at a 25-year low. Carnival (+2.11%) and CarMax (+1.51%) open the week with two of the most financing-sensitive consumer models in the index, on a curve whose front end just fell 6 bp.
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| 6 · U.S. Treasury Yields — Official Par Curve |
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| U.S. Department of the Treasury daily par yield curve for September 2026, read from the month-scoped Text View with two server-side fetches that returned identical rows; the month-scoped XML feed returned no results at capture. Rate up = red. Below one year only the 1-month and 3-month appear in the table; the other bills are extracted and cited in prose and in Section 9 block b where they carry a financing story. |
| Tenor | 25 Sep | 24 Sep | 1-Day | 18 Sep | 1-Week | | 1 Mo | 4.04% | 4.01% | +3 bp | 3.97% | +7 bp | | 3 Mo | 4.24% | 4.24% | 0 bp | 4.14% | +10 bp | | 1 Yr | 4.50% | 4.51% | -1 bp | 4.44% | +6 bp | | 2 Yr | 4.81% | 4.87% | -6 bp | 4.76% | +5 bp | | 3 Yr | 4.94% | 4.99% | -5 bp | 4.83% | +11 bp | | 5 Yr | 4.98% | 5.03% | -5 bp | 4.86% | +12 bp | | 7 Yr | 5.06% | 5.10% | -4 bp | 4.93% | +13 bp | | 10 Yr | 5.17% | 5.18% | -1 bp | 5.01% | +16 bp | | 20 Yr | 5.54% | 5.53% | +1 bp | 5.38% | +16 bp | | 30 Yr | 5.49% | 5.47% | +2 bp | 5.34% | +15 bp |
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| Spread | 25 Sep | 1-Day | 1-Week | | 2s10s | +36 bp | +5 bp | +11 bp | | 3M10Y | +93 bp | -1 bp | +6 bp | | 2s30s | +68 bp | +8 bp | +10 bp | | 20s30s | -5 bp | +1 bp | -1 bp |
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| Shape and diagnostic. A front-led twist steepener with the pivot at the 10-year: the 2-year to 7-year fell 4-6 bp while the 20- and 30-year rose 1-2 bp. The strip richened 1.5 bp in December 2026 and 4.5 bp in December 2027, so the rally was a trim to the hiking path on lower oil, not a fall in term premium — the long end refused it. |
| The spreads. 2s10s steepened 5 bp to 36 bp and 2s30s 8 bp to 68 bp, both at their steepest in the window. On the week, 2s10s is +11 bp and every coupon from the 7-year out rose 13-16 bp against 5 bp at the 2-year: the week was a bear steepener and Friday extended it from the other end. |
| Vendor cross-check. WSJ's 17:03-17:04 ET quotes read the 2-year 4.868% (-6.7 bp), the 10-year 5.165% (-4.0 bp) and the 30-year 5.496% (+1.6 bp) against par moves of -6, -1 and +2. The 10-year gap is WSJ's baseline: its Thursday reference was a 17:04 quote at 5.205%, 2.5 bp above the par close. |
| The off-table bills. The 1.5-month rose 4 bp to 4.14% and the 2-month 2 bp to 4.20%, while the 4- and 6-month eased 1 bp; the tenors spanning 30 September firmed against the rest of the bill curve. Section 9 block b carries it. |
| 7 · U.S. Macroeconomic Calendar |
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| Source: TradingEconomics United States calendar, read in the local Chrome browser after the close. The board served a clock twelve hours ahead of Eastern Time this session (initial claims at 08:30 PM, the Michigan survey at 10:00 PM); every time below is converted to ET and verified against the known release clocks. Sensitivity is this report's own rating and drives which releases Section 1 must name. Consensus is the board's consensus column where populated and its own forecast where not. |
| Current week — remaining releases only |
| No releases remain this week; Friday's durable goods and Michigan final printed this morning (see Section 1). |
| Next week |
| Date | ET | Release | Period | Prior | Consensus | Sensitivity | | Mon 9/28 | 10:30 | Dallas Fed manufacturing | Sep | 11.6 | 1.0 (board forecast) | Medium | | Mon 9/28 | 11:30 | 3-month and 6-month bill auctions | - | 4.015% / 4.155% | - | Medium | | Mon 9/28 | 13:30 | Fed Barkin speech | - | - | - | Medium | | Tue 9/29 | 09:00 | S&P/Case-Shiller home prices y/y | Jul | +2.1% | +2.2% | Medium | | Tue 9/29 | 10:00 | JOLTS job openings | Aug | 7.271M | 7.23M | High | | Tue 9/29 | 10:00 | CB consumer confidence | Sep | 89.4 | 90.0 | High | | Tue 9/29 | 13:00-14:00 | Fed Goolsbee, Musalem, Williams | - | - | - | Medium | | Wed 9/30 | 08:15 | ADP employment change | Sep | 38K | 70K | High | | Wed 9/30 | 08:30 | Core PCE price index m/m | Aug | +0.2% | +0.3% | Very high | | Wed 9/30 | 08:30 | PCE price index y/y | Aug | +3.7% | +3.8% (board forecast) | Very high | | Wed 9/30 | 08:30 | Core PCE price index y/y | Aug | +3.3% | +3.4% | High | | Wed 9/30 | 08:30 | Personal income / spending m/m | Aug | +0.4% / +0.2% | +0.4% / +0.8% | High | | Wed 9/30 | 08:30 | GDP q/q, final | Q2 | +2.1% | +1.6% | Medium | | Wed 9/30 | 09:45 | Chicago PMI | Sep | 47.1 | 51.3 | Medium | | Wed 9/30 | 13:30-18:00 | Fed Barkin, Goolsbee, Kashkari | - | - | - | Medium | | Thu 10/1 | 05:30 | Challenger job cuts | Sep | 52.9K | - | Low | | Thu 10/1 | 08:30 | Initial jobless claims | Sep/26 | 197K | 199K | High | | Thu 10/1 | 10:00 | ISM manufacturing PMI | Sep | 54.6 | 54.8 | High | | Thu 10/1 | 10:00 | ISM manufacturing prices paid | Sep | 71.1 | 72.0 | High | | Thu 10/1 | 10:00 | Construction spending m/m | Aug | -0.5% | +0.1% | Low | | Fri 10/2 | 08:30 | Nonfarm payrolls | Sep | 162K | 100K | Very high | | Fri 10/2 | 08:30 | Unemployment rate | Sep | 4.1% | 4.2% | High | | Fri 10/2 | 08:30 | Average hourly earnings m/m | Sep | +0.3% | +0.2% | Very high |
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The look-ahead. Friday's one Very-high print landed on consensus — Michigan one-year inflation expectations at 4.6%, up from 4.0% in August, with the five-year at 3.4% — and the market read "in line" as permission: CME's October hike fell to 64.2% from 68.6% and the 2-year rallied 6 bp. That leaves the asymmetry pointing up. With expectations already at 4.6%, a hot inflation print lands on a public that has stopped anchoring, and a soft one lands on a strip that has only just begun to trim. The order in which the calendar can move the card: JOLTS on Tuesday at 10:00; core PCE on Wednesday at 08:30 against a +0.3% consensus from a +0.2% prior, the week's first Very-high release and the one that matters most for October; ISM manufacturing on Thursday, whose prices-paid line sits at 71.1 against a 72.0 consensus; and payrolls on Friday 2 October, the last labour print before the 28 October meeting, with a 100K consensus against a 162K prior and average hourly earnings at +0.2%. Twelve Fed appearances run through the week. The downside tail remains geopolitical: an accepted Iranian proposal would remove the oil input faster than any print. |
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| 8 · Fed Funds Futures & Rate Path |
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| Current target range: 3.75%-4.00%, raised a quarter point on 16 September, with interest on reserve balances at 3.90% and the overnight reverse repo offering rate at 3.75%. |
| CME FedWatch headline — 28 October 2026 meeting. |
| Target rate (bps) | NOW | 1 DAY (24 SEP 2026) | 1 WEEK (18 SEP 2026) | 1 MONTH (25 AUG 2026) | | 350-375 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 45.7% | | 375-400 (current) | 35.8% | 31.4% | 42.4% | 44.7% | | 400-425 | 64.2% | 68.6% | 57.6% | 9.7% |
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| Data as of 25 Sep 2026, 04:55:32 CT, resolved as p.m. (5:55 p.m. ET) against the wall clock. A post-close live read is indicative rather than a settlement snapshot. Column provenance, the live-read correction and the vendor gap are in Data Notes. |
| (a) Current-year meeting distributions |
| Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor, updated 25 Sep 2026 05:45 p.m. EDT. Format: current [prior day] [prior week]. Modal range in bold. |
| Meeting | 3.75-4.00 (hold) | 4.00-4.25 (+25) | 4.25-4.50 (+50) | Cumulative above | Cumulative below | | Oct 28 | 33.4% [24.2] [40.3] | 66.6% [75.8] [59.7] | 0.0% | 66.6% | 0.0% | | Dec 9 | 7.5% [5.4] [10.0] | 40.9% [35.8] [45.1] | 51.6% [58.8] [44.8] | 92.5% | 0.0% |
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| Both meetings sum to 100.0%. ZQV6 rose 0.5 bp to 96.110 and ZQZ6 1.5 bp to 95.820. |
| (b) Next-year meeting path |
| Meeting | Future price | 1-day chg | Modal range | Prob. | Cumulative above | Cumulative below | | Jan 27, 2027 | 95.750 | +1.5 bp | 4.25-4.50 | 46.0% | 96.5% | 0.0% | | Mar 17, 2027 | 95.560 | +2.0 bp | 4.50-4.75 | 39.6% | 98.8% | 0.0% | | Apr 28, 2027 | 95.465 | +2.5 bp | 4.50-4.75 | 36.4% | 99.3% | 0.0% | | Jun 9, 2027 | 95.315 | +3.5 bp | 4.50-4.75 | 31.3% | 99.6% | 0.0% | | Jul 28, 2027 | 95.280 | +3.5 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 30.2% | 99.5% | 0.0% | | Sep 15, 2027 | 95.240 | +4.0 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 30.1% | 99.5% | 0.0% | | Oct 27, 2027 | 95.225 | +4.0 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 30.1% | 99.5% | 0.0% | | Dec 8, 2027 | 95.240 | +4.5 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 28.9% | 99.2% | 0.0% |
|
| June 2027 moved down a bucket, to 4.50-4.75 from 4.75-5.00. The implied terminal rate at the cheapest contract is 100 - 95.225 = 4.775%, 4.0 bp below Thursday's 4.815%. |
| (c) Year-end probability ladders |
| Year-end 2026 — the 9 December meeting. |
| Outcome | Range | Probability | | Cut, any size | below 3.75 | 0.0% | | Hold | 3.75-4.00 | 7.5% | | +25 bp | 4.00-4.25 | 40.9% | | +50 bp | 4.25-4.50 | 51.6% | | +75 bp | 4.50-4.75 | 0.0% |
|
| Year-end 2027 — the 8 December meeting. |
| Outcome | Range | Probability | | -25 bp | 3.50-3.75 | 0.0% | | Hold | 3.75-4.00 | 0.7% | | +25 bp | 4.00-4.25 | 4.6% | | +50 bp | 4.25-4.50 | 15.5% | | +75 bp | 4.50-4.75 | 28.1% | | +100 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 28.9% | | +125 bp | 5.00-5.25 | 16.5% | | +150 bp | 5.25-5.50 | 4.9% | | +175 bp | 5.50-5.75 | 0.7% | | +200 bp | 5.75-6.00 | 0.0% |
|
| Transparent rounding. The 2026 ladder sums to 100.0%; the 2027 ladder sums to 99.9% on the vendor's own figures, the 0.1-point residual being rounding across eight printed buckets, relative to the 3.75%-4.00% range. |
|
| (a) IG and HY credit spreads |
ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads via FRED, read from the plain /data/<SERIES> tables with a server-side fetch. The series carry a 24 September row, so the endpoint is one business day behind and the table describes Thursday's close — the day of the long-end selloff and the 7-year auction — not Friday's. Friday's direction is read from the cash proxies underneath. |
| Series | FRED code | 24 Sep | 1-Day | 1-Week | YTD (from 2 Jan 2026) | | IG credit spread (ICE BofA US Corporate OAS) | BAMLC0A0CM | 79 bp | +2 bp | +1 bp | 0 bp (from 79) | | HY credit spread (ICE BofA US High Yield OAS) | BAMLH0A0HYM2 | 280 bp | +7 bp | +10 bp | -3 bp (from 283) | | CCC & lower credit spread | BAMLH0A3HYC | 1,112 bp | +19 bp | +36 bp | +224 bp (from 888) | | CDX IG 5y | - | Not retrievable this session | - | - | - | | CDX HY 5y | - | Not retrievable this session | - | - | - |
|
CDX — the six-step ladder was worked and all six steps were executable. (1) Bloomberg in Chrome: /markets/rates-bonds rendered and a full-text scan returns zero occurrences of the index name, of the calculating agent's name and of "credit default". (2) WSJ Market Data bonds page rendered and scans clean on the same three terms. (3) Cbonds rendered; its CDX.NA.IG 5Y and CDX.NA.HY 5Y rows advanced to a 24/09/2026 stamp with the figures masked. (4) ICE: ice.com/data-services/indices returns page-not-found. (5) FT: markets.ft.com/data/indices returns its error page; Barchart's search returned a CloudFront 403. (6) Cash-market proxies, labelled as proxies: HYG closed $77.86, -0.04%, after a new 52-week low of $77.67 intraday, and LQD $103.21, +0.06%, after a new 52-week low of $102.735. No CDX level is published here. |
| Thursday's print says the rate shock has now reached IG. On 24 September IG widened 2 bp to 79 bp, off its 2026 tight for the first time in the window, while HY widened 7 bp to 280 and the CCC tail 19 bp to 1,112. The CCC-minus-HY differential widened 12 bp to 832 bp. Friday's proxies were flat on a day the 2-year rallied 6 bp and the long end sold 2 bp: both funds printed fresh 52-week lows intraday and recovered to unchanged. That is a market that has stopped widening on the equity rally but has not bought the dip. |
| (b) Money-market & funding plumbing |
| New York Fed reference rates, published at approximately 8:00 a.m. ET for the prior business day. The 24 September 2026 row is the latest published at capture. These rates are on the 3.75%-4.00% regime. Rate up = red. |
| Rate | 24 Sep | 23 Sep | 1st pct | 25th pct | 75th pct | 99th pct | Volume | | SOFR | 3.88% | 3.87% | 3.81% | 3.86% | 3.92% | 3.96% | $2,990bn | | EFFR | 3.88% | 3.88% | 3.85% | 3.88% | 3.89% | 3.94% | $105bn | | OBFR | 3.88% | 3.88% | 3.78% | 3.87% | 3.88% | 3.94% | $245bn | | TGCR | 3.86% | 3.85% | 3.80% | 3.86% | 3.87% | 3.89% | $1,213bn | | BGCR | 3.86% | 3.85% | 3.80% | 3.86% | 3.87% | 3.91% | $1,253bn |
|
| Facility / balance | Latest | Prior | Note | | SOFR - IORB | -2 bp | -3 bp | IORB 3.90%; +1 bp | | Overnight reverse repo take-up | $576m (25 Sep) | $630m (24 Sep) | Still a rounding error | | Standing repo facility | Not published at capture | - | Not asserted this session | Reserve balances (WRESBAL) | $2.9302tn | $3.0138tn | Week ended 23 Sep; no new print | | 1.5-month bill, par curve | 4.14% | 4.10% | +4 bp; off-table | | 2-month bill, par curve | 4.20% | 4.18% | +2 bp; off-table | | 6-month bill, par curve | 4.33% | 4.34% | -1 bp; off-table |
|
| The overnight complex took its first step up. SOFR printed 3.88% on 24 September, 1 bp higher, with tri-party and broad general collateral also up 1 bp to 3.86%, the 99th percentile at 3.96% and volume at $2,990bn, a new window high. SOFR now sits 2 bp under IORB, from 3 bp. The term bills that span 30 September firmed again on Friday — the 1.5-month +4 bp and the 1-month +3 bp — while the 4- and 6-month eased on the same day the 2-year rallied. Reverse repo take-up stayed at $576m: there is no parked cash to absorb a quarter-end collateral surge, so reserves at $2.930tn are the buffer. The line to watch into Wednesday is unchanged, and one basis point closer: a SOFR print at or above IORB. |
| (c) Rates volatility & swap spreads |
| Measure | Level | Change | Note | | MOVE index | 104.58 | +9.57% | Vintage 24 September; card one day behind | | VIX | 14.87 | -5.11% | Range 14.68-15.94 | | MOVE / VIX | 6.67 | - | Same-vintage 24 Sep ratio, from 6.29 |
|
| The rate-volatility card caught Thursday: its row for 24/09 reads 104.58, +9.57%, open 95.45; 104.58 / 1.0957 = 95.45, the 23 September vintage this report published, so level and change pass the internal check. The MOVE is up 33% in two sessions from 78.56. The same-vintage MOVE-to-VIX ratio for 24 September is 6.67, up from 6.29, and Friday widened the gap from the equity side as VIX fell 5.11%. Swap spreads at the 2-year, 10-year and 30-year were not obtainable from a primary source this session and are not asserted. |
| (d) Issuance, leveraged loans & private credit |
| AI-infrastructure credit was the day's financing thread. Bloomberg reported Morgan Stanley expects an Oracle notice to weigh on data-centre debt, and separately that Larry Ellison pledged a further $9.2bn of Oracle shares as collateral — two items that put the largest private data-centre borrower's funding under a lens on the day Oracle fell 1.75%. Akamai's $5.5bn capex for the Anthropic contract remains unfunded publicly, and the stock's 12% fade from its after-hours high is the equity market's price for that uncertainty. On the primary side, Bloomberg reported Oura's IPO of up to $2.2bn drew about four times as many orders as shares available. The Morningstar LSTA loan index, bank CDS and the week's IG primary tally were not obtained this session. |
The take. The divergence narrowed from the credit side before it narrowed from equity. Thursday's FRED print moved IG 2 bp wider to 79 bp, HY 7 bp to 280 and CCC 19 bp to 1,112, and on Friday HYG and LQD both printed 52-week lows before recovering — while VIX fell to 14.87. The late-cycle order is complete: CCC first, HY second, and now IG. What would break the divergence toward equity is IG moving another 5 bp while VIX stays under 16; what would break it toward credit is an Iranian deal that pulls Brent below $100 and takes the term premium with it. The CCC-minus-HY differential at 832 bp is the line to watch; it has widened 25 bp in two sessions. |
|
|
| Source: TradingEconomics currency board, read in the local Chrome browser after the U.S. close; every row carried a Sep/25 stamp. Quote basis: EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD are quoted as dollars per unit of foreign currency, so a fall is a weaker foreign currency; every other pair is quoted as units of foreign currency per dollar, so a rise is a weaker foreign currency. The %Chg column is computed over twenty-four hours against the prior edition's levels for the same vendor; the vendor's own field is named where it disagrees. Week and YTD are the vendor's own columns. |
| Pair | Level | %Chg | Week | YTD | Read | | DXY | 101.031 | -0.23% | +0.81% | +2.76% | Seven-session streak ends | | EUR/USD | 1.13873 | +0.09% | -0.85% | -3.01% | Vendor +0.10% | | GBP/USD | 1.32417 | +0.19% | -1.15% | -1.62% | Vendor +0.21% | | USD/JPY | 157.233 | -1.03% | +0.23% | +0.31% | Bessent on a strong yen | | USD/CHF | 0.82763 | -0.02% | +0.66% | +4.38% | Vendor +0.05% | | USD/CAD | 1.41340 | -0.03% | +1.06% | +3.01% | Loonie held as WTI fell | | AUD/USD | 0.70199 | +0.11% | -1.43% | +5.20% | Vendor +0.11% | | NZD/USD | 0.56610 | +0.11% | -1.05% | -1.65% | Vendor +0.02% | | USD/CNY | 6.72042 | +0.08% | +0.38% | -3.67% | Onshore shut, Mid-Autumn | | USD/KRW | 1,356.18 | -0.72% | -2.15% | -5.86% | Seoul shut; offshore quote | | USD/TWD | 31.7140 | -0.38% | -0.20% | +1.17% | Taipei shut; vendor -0.34% | | USD/INR | 95.8860 | -0.21% | -0.10% | +6.69% | Vendor -0.10% | | USD/NOK | 9.46430 | -0.44% | +0.55% | -6.19% | Vendor +0.15%; sign disagrees | | USD/SEK | 9.91899 | +0.01% | +0.95% | +7.60% | Vendor +0.04% | | USD/TRY | 48.9257 | -0.02% | +0.34% | +13.91% | Vendor +0.42% |
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| The take: the dollar's seven-session run ended on the yen, not on a broad sell-off. DXY fell 0.23% to 101.031, and the dollar weakened against twelve of fourteen crosses, but outside the yen the moves were 0.2% or less. The driver was the front end: a 6 bp fall in the American 2-year removed a little of the rate-differential support that carried the streak, and Bloomberg's Dollar Spot Index was also lower. |
| The yen is the cross to watch, and the reason is political. USD/JPY fell 1.03% to 157.233 after Treasury Secretary Bessent said he discussed "the desirability" of a strong currency with Japanese Finance Minister Katayama. A U.S. Treasury Secretary talking up the yen, the day after the JGB 10-year hit its highest since 1996, is as close to verbal intervention as Washington gets — and Bloomberg reported hedge funds had already cut bullish yen bets, so the move met light positioning. |
| The Asian crosses traded offshore on holidays. USD/KRW fell 0.72% to 1,356.18 and USD/TWD 0.38% with Seoul and Taipei both shut, and USD/CNY rose 0.08% with the mainland closed; treat all three as offshore marks that reprice on Monday. The Mexican peso rose 1.46% on the vendor field, the largest emerging-market move, reversing Thursday's 1.13% carry-trade loss. The lira moved -0.02% on this report's computation — an eighth session without a meaningful move, cumulatively 0.51% — while the vendor field reads +0.42%, which implies a stale baseline. |
|
| Settlement basis, stated, and reconciled to the prior edition. The Investing.com per-contract historical board remains the settle series of record for a fourteenth edition. Rows were captured at approximately 18:35 ET. No roll occurred: every board's 22 and 23 September rows reproduce the values the prior edition reconciled against, and every contract is the same month the prior edition published. Week and YTD columns are TradingEconomics spot returns, not futures returns on the contracts quoted; its header order was verified as Price, Chg, %Chg, Weekly, Monthly, YTD, YoY, Date. |
| Contract | Settle | Chg | %Chg | Week | YTD | Driver | | WTI (Nov, NYMEX) | $92.44 | -$2.17 | -2.29% | -3.79% | +60.99% | Iran proposal; third-party settle $92.41 | | Brent (Nov, ICE) | $104.45 | -$2.15 | -2.02% | +0.48% | +71.52% | Third-party settle $104.32 | | Heating oil (Oct) | $4.8229 | +$0.0926 | +1.96% | -4.64% | +127.33% | Rose against crude; 48% of volume | | Gasoline RBOB (Oct) | $3.4098 | -$0.1111 | -3.16% | -3.35% | +99.27% | 1.45K lots; expiring 30 Sep | | Natural gas (Oct) | $3.214 | -$0.083 | -2.52% | +9.80% | -13.25% | Gave back part of +9.06% | | Gold (Comex Dec) | $4,320.50 | +$22.50 | +0.52% | -2.25% | -0.81% | Third-party settle $4,321.20 | | Silver (Comex Dec) | $64.710 | +$0.708 | +1.11% | -2.95% | -9.79% | Weaker dollar | | Copper (Comex Dec) | $6.7790 | -$0.0110 | -0.16% | +1.37% | +18.02% | 99% of volume |
|
| The restatement: every 24 September row moved, and Investrade had all three of its figures to the cent — WTI $94.61, Brent $106.60 and gold $4,298.00 — for a twelfth session. Published against finalised: WTI $94.76 against $94.61 (+2.82% becomes +2.66%), Brent $106.76 against $106.60 (+3.57% becomes +3.41%), heating oil $4.7967 against $4.7303 (+0.43% becomes -0.97%, a direction inversion), RBOB $3.5497 against $3.5209 (-1.21% becomes -1.84%), natural gas $3.227 against $3.297 (+6.75% becomes +9.06%), gold $4,308.45 against $4,298.00, silver $64.272 against $64.002 and copper $6.7750 against $6.7900 (+0.32% becomes +0.54%). |
| Friday's rows, and the expected settles. Volumes ran 48% (heating oil) to 99% (copper) of the prior session, so several rows are still forming. Two dated third parties agree on Brent: WSJ and Investrade both have $104.32, -2.1%; Investrade has WTI $92.41, -$2.20 and gold $4,321.20, +$23.20. On the twelve-session record those are the expected settles, 3 cents, 13 cents and 70 cents from the board. |
| The cracks moved apart. On October products against November crude: |
- Distillate crack: $4.8229 x 42 - $92.44 = $110.12, up $6.06 from a restated $104.06 (published $106.70).
- Gasoline crack: $3.4098 x 42 - $92.44 = $50.77, down $2.50 from a restated $53.27 (published $54.33).
- The differential widened $8.56 to $59.35 from a restated $50.79.
|
| Heating oil rose 1.96% on a day crude fell 2.29%, so the distillate crack recovered all of Thursday's compression and more; gasoline fell with the barrel into the October contract's expiry. Brent-WTI was $12.01 against a restated $11.99 on the November-November basis — the seaborne premium held even as the Red Sea headline faded. The gold-silver ratio fell to 66.77 from a restated 67.15 as silver outran gold on a softer dollar and a lower front-end yield. |
|
| Desk-style ideas for institutional investors. Each carries an explicit expression, catalyst and invalidation. These are not personalized investment advice; verify independently and size to your own mandate before acting. |
| 1. The rates trade — long ZQZ6 against short ZQZ7 gave back 3 bp as 2027 richened faster |
| Mark first. Long ZQZ6 (December 2026) against short ZQZ7 (December 2027), DV01-matched one-for-one at $41.67 per basis point per contract, entered on 11 September at 95.910 / 95.450 for a spread of 46.0 bp, quarter size. Friday's mark: ZQZ6 95.820, +1.5 bp, ZQZ7 95.240, +4.5 bp — a spread of 58.0 bp. That is -3.0 bp on the session, -$125.01 per contract pair, and leaves the position +12.0 bp, or +$500.04, from entry. |
| The reading.* The structure is long the upper tail of the terminal rate, and Friday trimmed that tail: the implied terminal fell 4.0 bp to 4.775% and June 2027's modal bucket slipped to 4.50%-4.75%. The modal path is +25 in October (CME 64.2%), +50 by December (Investing.com 51.6%) and a 4.75%-5.00% range from July 2027. The base case is that path; the tails are a stall at one more hike (December hold 7.5%) or a 5.00%-5.25% terminal if inflation expectations keep rising (16.5% at December 2027). Practical implication: the spread earns on a hot core PCE or payrolls and gives back on oil relief, which is what Friday was. Catalyst: core PCE Wednesday 08:30, payrolls 2 October. Invalidation, unchanged: the spread through 40.0 bp; or December 2026's no-further-hike probability above 20%, against 7.5%; or the 2027 modal range at 4.25%-4.50% or lower at five or more of the eight meetings, against one today. Sizing: a quarter; take a third off above 65 bp. *Mark to date: +12.0 bp. |
| 2. Long the power and electrical tier against short the AI security complex — the best day since entry |
| Mark. Long an equal-weight basket of GE Vernova, Eaton, Constellation Energy, Vistra and Quanta Services against CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks, dollar-neutral, an eighth, entered at the 14 September closes. Friday: the long basket averaged +0.42% — Quanta +0.87%, Constellation +0.63%, Vistra +0.38%, GE Vernova +0.22%, Eaton flat — against a short basket averaging -3.41%: Palo Alto -3.91%, CrowdStrike -2.91%. The pair gained 3.83 points, taking it to +0.61 points and positive for the first time. |
| Action:* hold at an eighth; restore to a quarter above +3 points. Catalyst: Micron 30 September; the Akamai capex financing; hyperscaler capex confirmation. Invalidation, unchanged: the spread 8 points against entry; or a credible deferred or cancelled data-centre programme at a named operator. *Mark to date: +0.61 points. |
| 3. Long the 20-year against the 30-year — CLOSED at the review clause, -1.0 bp |
| Mark and close. Entered on 15 September at 20-year 5.40% against 30-year 5.36%, a spread of -4 bp, DV01-matched, quarter size. The written review clause closed the position at Friday's par close unless 20s30s was back at -4 bp or better. Friday: 20-year 5.54%, 30-year 5.49% — -5 bp. The clause fires. Closed at -1.0 bp. The 20-year's liquidity discount narrowed 1 bp on the day but did not come back; the thesis needed Treasury's long-end buyback to absorb it, and Thursday's buyback came in smaller than expected. |
| 4. Long the equal-weighted index against the capitalisation-weighted index — a broad day that still lost |
| Mark.* Long RSP against short SPY, dollar-neutral, quarter size. Friday: RSP $211.11, +0.40% against SPY $771.35, +0.54%. *The pair lost 0.14 points. Mark to date: -1.45 points. |
| The reading.* Breadth of 315 against 175 is the configuration this trade was built for, and it still lost because Microsoft (+3.66%) and Apple (+1.53%) carried the capitalisation-weighted leg. Action: hold the quarter; 1.55 points from the invalidation. Catalyst: quarter-end rebalancing on 30 September; Micron and Nike next week. Invalidation, unchanged: the pair 3 points against entry. *Mark to date: -1.45 points. |
| 5. Long Paramount Skydance against short Warner Bros. Discovery — gave back the Thursday bounce |
| Mark.* Long PSKY against short WBD, entered on 21 September at $9.91 and $30.80, quarter size. Friday: PSKY $9.96, -2.16%, against WBD $30.86, +0.05%. *The pair lost 2.21 points. Mark to date: +0.38 points. |
| Catalyst:* the loan and bond launch for the $49bn package and its pricing; the 30 September fee threshold. Invalidation, unchanged: the pair 6 points against entry; or a failed or materially repriced syndication; or any second-state or federal action. Sizing: a quarter. *Mark to date: +0.38 points. |
| 6. Long energy producers against short utilities — day two gave back day one |
| Mark.* Long an equal-weight basket of ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources and Devon Energy against a short of NextEra Energy, Edison International and Exelon, dollar-neutral, quarter size, entered at the 23 September closes. Friday: the long leg averaged -2.37% — Devon -3.78%, EOG -1.76%, ConocoPhillips -1.58% — and the short leg +0.39%: NextEra +0.62%, Exelon +0.35%, Edison +0.21%. *The pair lost 2.76 points. Mark to date: +0.02 points. |
| The reading.* Brent fell 2.02% on the Iranian proposal and the 10-year was flat, so the long leg lost its driver while the short leg's did not change. Catalyst: the weekend's Hormuz headlines; core PCE 30 September. Invalidation, unchanged: the par 10-year back below 4.95%, against 5.17%; or the pair 5 points against entry; or Brent below $95, against $104.45 — the clause that an accepted Iranian proposal would trigger. Sizing: a quarter. *Mark to date: +0.02 points. |
| 7. The term-premium steepener — receive the 2-year, pay the 10-year: day one worked |
| Mark.* Entered at Thursday's official par closes of 4.87% and 5.18% — 2s10s at +31 bp, DV01-neutral, quarter size. Friday: 4.81% and 5.17% — +36 bp. *Mark to date: +5.0 bp. |
| The reading.* The steepener worked from the front, not the back: the 2-year rallied 6 bp on lower oil while the 10-year barely moved, which is the second route by which this structure pays. Catalyst: core PCE Wednesday; next week's IG supply. Invalidation, unchanged: 2s10s back below +22 bp; or a completed Iranian deal that takes Brent below $95. Sizing: a quarter; add a quarter above +42 bp. *Mark to date: +5.0 bp. |
| 8. New — sell USD/JPY: the U.S. Treasury is now on the yen's side |
| The expression. Short USD/JPY at 157.233, quarter size. |
| The thesis.* Friday's 1.03% fall followed the U.S. Treasury Secretary's remark on "the desirability" of a strong yen, the day after the JGB 10-year reached its highest since 1996. Two of the three conditions that have capped the yen are gone: Washington is no longer indifferent, and the Japanese yield gap is closing from the Japanese side. The third — an American 2-year at 4.81% — fell 6 bp on Friday. Bloomberg reported hedge funds had cut bullish yen bets before the remark, so positioning is light. Catalyst: weekend and Monday follow-through from Tokyo; core PCE Wednesday and payrolls 2 October on the differential side. Invalidation: USD/JPY above 159.50, above Thursday's 158.864 close; or a hot core PCE that reopens the 2-year above 4.95%. Target: 154.00. Sizing: a quarter. *Mark to date: new. |
| Closed positions, marked forward |
| Long the refiners against short November crude, closed Thursday: the close restates to -3.60 points on the finalised WTI of $94.61 (published -3.76). Friday's closes — Valero $387.18, Marathon $393.52 against WTI $92.44 — would put the structure at -0.30 points, 3.30 points better than the stop, on a day the distillate crack recovered to $110.12, back above the $108 invalidation line. Recorded, not claimed. |
| The belly butterfly, stopped at -13.0 bp: Friday's par close gives 2 x 4.98% - (4.81% + 5.49%) = -34 bp, which would be -18.0 bp from entry, 5 bp worse than the stop. |
| Long Brent against WTI, closed 22 September at +$0.39: the November-November differential was $12.01, against a restated $11.99. |
| The long distillate crack, closed 14 September at a restated +$0.44: the differential printed $59.35 against $66.79 at entry, so holding would be -$7.44 from entry. |
| Protection on the CCC cohort funded in IG, closed 16 September at +43 bp: the CCC-minus-HY differential widened 12 bp to 832 bp on FRED's 24 September print, so the cumulative had it been held rises to +66 bp — the close is now 23 bp worse than holding. |
| The credit-bureau pair, closed at -1.72 points: Equifax -0.46% and Fair Isaac +0.77% against Finviz financials +0.79% would have gained 0.64 points, taking the cumulative had it been held to +10.02 points. |
| Long October volatility on the semiconductor complex, closed 17 September: SOX rose 1.41% to 12,668.93, roughly -9.5% from entry. |
| The short-debasement basket against long dollar, closed 3 September, would have lost on Friday: gold +0.52% and silver +1.11% against DXY -0.23%. |
| The vol note |
| VIX closed 14.87, down 0.80 points or 5.11%, after trading to 15.94. A 14.87 handle asks for roughly a 0.94% daily move against realised index moves of 0.75%, 0.02% and 0.51% over the last three sessions, an average absolute 0.43%, so implied-to-realised fell to about 2.2-to-one from 3.8. The rate surface went the other way: MOVE 104.58 on its 24 September vintage, a 6.67 MOVE-to-VIX ratio. Equity protection cheapened on a day the bond market's own volatility gauge was a third higher than Tuesday. Prefer rate-sensitive single-name puts and index put spreads financed against the MOVE gap over outright index volatility. |
|
| Crowded consensuses worth stress-testing with numbers. |
| 1. That the oil de-escalation is done. Friday priced an unconfirmed proposal: Brent -2.02% to $104.45 on a New York Times report relayed by Bloomberg, which WSJ called unconfirmed. Brent is still +0.48% on the week and Brent-WTI at $12.01 says the seaborne premium did not move. A weekend rejection reverses Friday in one session. |
| 2. That the long end has peaked. The par 30-year closed at 5.49%, +2 bp on a day the 2-year fell 6 bp, and WSJ's 30-year settled at 5.5% after breaking above it for the first time in 22 years. Hammack named debt as a driver. The 2s30s at 68 bp says the market is still paying for duration risk independent of the Fed. |
| 3. That IG is the safe harbour. FRED's Thursday print moved IG 2 bp wider to 79 bp, its first move off the 2026 tight in the window, and both HYG and LQD printed 52-week lows intraday Friday. CCC-minus-HY at 832 bp has widened 25 bp in two sessions. |
| 4. That the yen is contained. It is not being contained; it is being talked up. USD/JPY -1.03% to 157.233 after Bessent's remark. A disorderly yen rally unwinds carry into a quarter-end with reverse repo at $576m and no parked cash. |
| 5. That breadth has healed. 315 advancers against 175 on Friday, but the capitalisation-weighted index still beat the equal-weighted one, SPY +0.54% against RSP +0.40%, and the week's leadership is the same five megacaps plus semiconductors. |
| The two-sided geopolitical tape. The de-escalation side: Iran's reported proposal to reopen Hormuz and revive nuclear talks, and the President's remark after speaking with President Xi that "I think we're going to do great" on the Iran war. The escalation side: Thursday's Houthi missile fire at Saudi Arabia has not been answered, the proposal is unconfirmed, and Bloomberg reported a $352m hack at the crypto exchange Bitget, a reminder of the plumbing risk outside the regulated perimeter. |
| Structural watch items. Quarter-end is Wednesday 30 September: SOFR printed 3.88%, 2 bp under IORB, reserve balances are $2.930tn, and the bills spanning the date rose 3-4 bp on Friday. China and Taiwan reopen Monday after the Mid-Autumn holiday; Korea after Chuseok. USD/TRY has moved a cumulative 0.51% across eight sessions. The MOVE index has risen 33% in two sessions. |
What VIX is and is not pricing. At 14.87, the index asks for a 0.94% daily move against three-session realised of 0.43%, a ratio near 2.2-to-one — fair on the equity market's own arithmetic. What it priced on Friday was a relief rally on an unconfirmed oil headline. What it is not pricing is the rate market: a 30-year at 5.49%, a MOVE at 104.58, IG and HY credit spreads widening together, and a week with core PCE and payrolls after the public's one-year inflation expectation reached 4.6%. The 6.67 MOVE-to-VIX ratio is the gap in one number, and it widened on Friday from the equity side. |
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Sources · Investing.com (492-line S&P 500 component board, major world indices, world government bonds, per-contract commodity historical boards, MOVE historical board, Fed Rate Monitor), Finviz group screener in Performance table view, WSJ Market Data (SPX, DJIA, COMP, NDX, RUT, SOX and VIX index pages, 2-, 10- and 30-year Treasury quote pages, bonds page and economic calendar, RSP, SPY, HYG and LQD quote pages, the stocks desk and Markets P.M.), Bloomberg.com (markets front page, rates and bonds, Markets Wrap), CME FedWatch, TradingEconomics (United States calendar, commodities board, currency board), the U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve Text View, FRED /data/<SERIES> tables, the New York Fed reference-rates and reverse-repo APIs, the Nasdaq earnings calendar API, Investrade, TradingKey, 24/7 Wall St., StockStory via FinancialContent, Cbonds, ICE, markets.ft.com and Barchart. All market data captured after the 16:00 ET close on 25 September 2026. |
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The Weekend / Asia read-through, the Source Links appendix and the full Data Notes and Conflicts appendix are in the companion files US_CrossAsset_Daily_2026-09-25.md and US_CrossAsset_Daily_2026-09-25_DataNotes.txt. |
| Prepared for institutional use. Trading views are desk-style ideas, not personalized investment advice; verify independently and size to your own mandate before acting. Figures are as captured after the close on 25 September 2026 and may be restated by the vendors named. |