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U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Opening Daily
Monday, September 28, 2026 — Pre-Open Briefing | Data as of: ~7:10 AM ET | News window: Fri 4:00 PM ET → Mon ~7:10 AM ET (weekend gap)
Prepared for Institutional Investors. Not Personalized Investment Advice; Verify Independently before Acting. | Source Links and Data Notes & Conflicts provided in the companion text file (US_CrossAsset_Opening_2026-09-28_DataNotes.txt). |
1 · Pre-Open Dashboard |
| The overnight in one paragraph. Friday's rally was bought on an Iranian peace proposal; the weekend took the proposal away. The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday that President Trump rejected Iran's conditional offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and told aides he expects U.S. strikes to resume after the midterms; Trump confirmed it: “They made a proposal but I rejected it” (via CNBC). Axios then quoted him expecting talks to resume this week, which is the only two-sided element. The barrel reversed all of Friday and more: Brent Nov +3.98% to $108.47, WTI Nov +4.11% to $96.21 (6:59 AM). The rates market read it as inflation, not growth: the 2-year is 4.924%, +6.0 bp on CNBC's Friday close, the 10-year 5.232% (+5.1 bp), a bear flattener, and Investing.com's October-hike odds rose to 71.2% from 66.6%. Gold fell 3.08% to $4,188.30 and silver 4.79% on the hike repricing. Futures rank by duration pain: YM −0.51% > ES −0.53% > RTY −0.63% > NQ −0.97%; the tech underperformance also carries a weekend AI-safety headline (OpenAI paused training after its agents probed U.S. government sites). VIX is 16.36, +10.0%. What this hands the 9:30 open: a gap lower of roughly 0.5% (implied S&P ~7,702 vs 7,743.41), energy the only green sector pre-market (OXY +2.2%, DVN +2.2%), with miners (NEM −4.7%), memory/semis (MU −2.2%, SNDK −3.5%), Meta (−3.0%) and airlines (UAL −2.1%) leading down. No 8:30 print; the first data are Dallas Fed at 10:30. |
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| Equity futures — December 2026 front contracts (CNBC quote service, 6:59 AM ET) |
| Contract | Level | Chg | %Chg | Implied cash open / note | | S&P 500 (ESZ6) | 7,762.25 | −41.50 | −0.53% | Implied SPX 7,701.91 vs 7,743.41 close | | Nasdaq-100 (NQZ6) | 30,590.75 | −298.50 | −0.97% | Implied NDX 30,309.63 vs 30,608.13 | | Dow (YMZ6) | 51,897 | −266 | −0.51% | Implied DJIA 51,562.62 vs 51,828.62 | | Russell 2000 (RTYZ6) | 2,841.30 | −18.00 | −0.63% | Implied RUT 2,819.55 vs 2,837.55 |
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| Reconciliation: ES −41.50 / 7,803.75 prior settle = −0.532%; NQ −298.50 / 30,889.25 = −0.966%; YM −266 / 52,163 = −0.510%; RTY −18.00 / 2,859.30 = −0.630%. Implied cash open = prior cash close + futures points change (Friday's settle-to-cash basis, 7,803.75 − 7,743.41 = 60.34 S&P points, held constant; no separate fair-value feed retrieved). Implied SPX change −41.50 / 7,743.41 = −0.54%. |
| Prior cash closes — Friday, September 25 (reference anchors) |
| Index | Close | Chg | %Chg | Note | | S&P 500 | 7,743.41 | +39.28 | +0.51% | Range 7,693.08-7,752.07; breadth 315-175 | | Nasdaq Composite | 27,068.72 | +129.34 | +0.48% | | | Dow Jones | 51,828.62 | +478.64 | +0.93% | Snapped a three-day losing streak | | Russell 2000 | 2,837.55 | +1.98 | +0.07% | | | PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) | 12,668.93 | +176.39 | +1.41% | Longest weekly advance since May (Bloomberg) | | VIX (close) | 14.87 | −0.80 | −5.11% | Range 14.68-15.94 |
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| Cross-asset pre-open board (CNBC; ET timestamps) |
| Instrument | Level | Chg | %Chg / bp | Note | | VIX (indicative, 7:09) | 16.36 | +1.49 | +10.02% | VX Oct future 17.80 (6:54), contango +1.44 pts | | UST 2Y (7:09) | 4.924% | +6.0 bp | vs CNBC Fri 4.864% | vs par 4.81%: +11.4 bp (basis, see §6) | | UST 10Y (7:09) | 5.232% | +5.1 bp | vs CNBC Fri 5.181% | vs par 5.17%: +6.2 bp; o/n high 5.234% | | UST 30Y (7:09) | 5.535% | +3.3 bp | vs CNBC Fri 5.502% | vs par 5.49%: +4.5 bp | | DXY (7:09) | 101.165 | +0.194 | +0.19% | Range 100.98-101.199 | | EUR/USD (7:09) | 1.1371 | −0.0020 | −0.18% | | | USD/JPY (7:09) | 157.07 | −0.19 | −0.12% | Range 156.52-157.85; yen holds Friday's gain | | WTI Nov (6:59) | $96.21 | +$3.80 | +4.11% | vs $92.41 settle; high $96.48 | | Brent Nov (6:59) | $108.47 | +$4.15 | +3.98% | vs $104.32 settle; highest since 15 Sep (CNBC) | | Gold Dec (6:59) | $4,188.30 | −$132.90 | −3.08% | vs $4,321.20 settle; low $4,172.70 | | Copper Dec (6:59) | $6.6325 | −$0.1335 | −1.97% | | | Bitcoin (7:10) | $82,978 | −$1,763 | −2.08% | 24h | | Nikkei 225 (close) | 65,877.62 | −486.58 | −0.73% | Topix −0.40% | | Kospi (close) | 6,889.74 | −191.18 | −2.70% | First session since 23 Sep (Chuseok) | | Hang Seng (close) | 24,642.51 | +132.42 | +0.54% | Energy and tech led | | Shanghai Comp. (close) | 3,823.62 | −64.75 | −1.67% | First session since 24 Sep; CSI 300 −2.22% | | Stoxx 600 (~4:54) | 639.73 | +1.08 | +0.17% | UK housebuilders +14-23% | | DAX (~6:54) | 25,389.10 | −19.54 | −0.08% | | | FTSE 100 (~6:55) | 10,728.86 | +33.61 | +0.31% | |
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| Sources: CNBC quote service (quote.cnbc.com, read in local Chrome), CNBC live blog, WSJ, official Treasury par curve (25 Sep, via the Closing Daily), Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor. Treasury yields are coloured inverted (up = red); gold, copper and Bitcoin are shaded as risk assets (down = red); crude up is shown red as a cost shock to the index. VX and ES are futures; VIX is the cash index. European times are local-market stamps converted to ET. |
2 · Overnight Hot Spots — the weekend window, ranked by tradability |
| 1. Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz offer; the oil premium Friday removed is back, and then some. [Commodities / Equities / Rates] Brent Nov $108.47 (+3.98%) and WTI Nov $96.21 (+4.11%) at 6:59 AM, against settles of $104.32 and $92.41; Brent at 6:35 AM was its highest since 15 September (CNBC). WSJ (Saturday) reported the rejection and Trump's expectation of renewed strikes after the midterms; Iranian FM Araghchi's offer, made at the UN on Friday, had Hormuz open “at the end of seven days” if Washington lifted the blockade and released assets. Axios quotes Trump expecting talks this week. Saudi-led coalition forces said they intercepted Houthi projectiles on Saturday. Pre-market: OXY +2.2%, DVN +2.2%, APA +2.8%, COP +1.9%, XOM +1.8%, CVX +1.5%, VLO +1.7%; airlines UAL −2.1%, AAL −2.3%, DAL −1.8%; cruise lines CCL −1.8% a day before earnings. Watch: Brent $108.83 overnight high; a hold above it re-opens the $110 area, while a break back under $105 (Friday's settle zone) says the market still believes the Axios line. | | 2. The front end reprices the Fed, not the term premium. [Rates / Equities / FX] On CNBC's own Friday closes the 2-year is +6.0 bp to 4.924%, the 5-year +6.3 bp, the 10-year +5.1 bp to 5.232% and the 30-year +3.3 bp: a bear flattener, the mirror of Friday's front-led rally. Investing.com moved October +25 bp to 71.2% from 66.6% and December +50 bp to 57.8% from 51.6%; ZQZ6 fell 2.0 bp to 95.800. Bunds are only +2.1 bp, so this is a U.S. Fed-path move led by the oil-inflation channel. Watch: the 10-year's 5.228% intraday high from Friday (WSJ); a close above 5.25% is a fresh 19-year closing high and the level that has hit NQ each time. | | 3. Precious metals break: gold −3.1%, silver −4.8%, and the miners gap lower. [Commodities / Equities] Gold Dec $4,188.30 (−$132.90), overnight low $4,172.70; silver Dec $61.695 (−4.79%); spot gold was $4,155.55 (−3.05%) shortly after 4 AM (CNBC). CNBC attributed the move to the prospect of further Fed hikes; the 2-year's +6 bp is the proof. Pre-market: NEM −4.7%, AEM −4.8%, WPM −5.2%, FCX −4.4%, CDE −5.8%, HL −5.4% (last two non-S&P). Watch: $4,172.70; a failure there opens a gold-miner gap-and-go lower. | | 4. Gold Fields −15.8% after Northern Star rejects a $27bn approach. [Equities / Commodities] Northern Star said the Gold Fields proposal (0.3125 GFI shares plus A$7.25 cash per share, A$38.7bn at announcement, A$36.1bn at Friday's price) undervalued it; NST rose more than 9% in Sydney (CNBC). GFI ADRs trade $34.01, −15.78% on 539K shares, a collapse that is part deal and part gold. Non-S&P, but a large miners-ETF weight. Watch: whether Gold Fields walks or raises; either resolves the arbitrage overhang. | | 5. Tech leads the downside: NQ −0.97% on yields plus an AI-safety weekend. [Equities] OpenAI paused training of its latest models after agents probed U.S. government websites in unexpected ways (U.S. News/AP, 26 Sep); Nvidia on Monday launched an Open Agent Safety Platform, citing incidents at OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta and Google (CNBC). Pre-market: META −3.0% to $729.05 after a 13% week, INTC −3.2% on 2.4M shares, SNDK −3.5%, ARM −3.2%, WDC −2.6%, STX −2.5%, AMD −2.3%, MU −2.2% two days before its print, ORCL −2.3%; the exception is NVDA +1.5% on 2.5M shares. Watch: whether NVDA's bid holds through 10:00; a reversal would leave no leadership in NQ. | | 6. Korea reprices four U.S. sessions in one: Kospi −2.70%. [Equities / FX] Seoul reopened after Chuseok at 6,889.74; USD/KRW +0.51% to 1,360.60. Mainland China reopened lower too: Shanghai −1.67%, CSI 300 −2.22% after August industrial profits grew only 4.2% y/y, the weakest this year. Watch: the U.S.-listed Korea/China ADR complex at the open; the read-through is to memory (MU, SNDK), not to U.S. consumer names. | | 7. Roblox −3.9% on a Jefferies downgrade. [Equities] RBLX $44.65 pre-market vs $46.44, on booking concerns (CNBC). Other rating actions (Benzinga): Paychex cut to Underweight at Cantor, $96 target (5.3% below Friday's $101.37; no pre-market print); Teleflex raised to Buy at BofA, $158 (29.4% above $122.07; +1.4% pre); Resideo to Outperform at Evercore ISI, $30. Watch: PAYX at the open, already −8.8% after its 23 Sep print. | | 8. Kodiak Sciences +63% on 1.4M shares. [Equities, non-S&P] KOD $52.85 vs $32.35 (CNBC, 7:11 AM), the largest liquid pre-market gap; the catalyst was not identified in the coverage read and no figure is asserted. Treat as a biotech single-name event with no index read-through. | | 9. UK housebuilders +14-23% on a Labour buyer scheme. [Equities] Stoxx 600 +0.17%; gilt 10-year +5.2 bp to 5.417%, so no global duration bid. Limited U.S. read-through. | | 10. Quarter-end funding into a data-heavy week. [Rates / Credit] SOFR 3.88% (24 Sep), 2 bp under IORB, ON RRP $576m. WSJ: Brightline filed for bankruptcy. Watch: a SOFR print at or above 3.90%. |
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3 · Global Markets Overnight — Asia & Europe |
| Asia closes (Monday) |
| Index | Close | %Chg | Catalyst | | Nikkei 225 | 65,877.62 | −0.73% | Opened +0.29%, faded with U.S. futures; yen firm | | Topix | 4,112.00 | −0.40% | Broader index held better than the tech-heavy Nikkei | | Kospi | 6,889.74 | −2.70% | Four missed U.S. sessions repriced after Chuseok | | Taiwan TAIEX | No reliable data available at this time | — | CNBC and the live blog carry no Monday print (last 24 Sep, 48,024.60) | | Hang Seng | 24,642.51 | +0.54% | Energy +0.63%, tech +0.45% (CNBC) | | HSCEI | 8,216.84 | +0.63% | | | Shanghai Composite | 3,823.62 | −1.67% | Holiday return; industrial profits +4.2% y/y | | CSI 300 | 4,340.76 | −2.22% | Weakest monthly profit growth this year | | ASX 200 | 8,679.70 | +0.17% | Northern Star +9% on bid rejection | | Nifty 50 (late) | 22,780.25 | −1.56% | Oil importer hit by Brent +4% |
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| Europe live (~11:00-12:55 local, ~5:00-6:55 AM ET) |
| Index | Level | %Chg | Leadership / movers | | Stoxx 600 | 639.73 | +0.17% | Autos +1.06%, retail +1% | | Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,300.06 | −0.04% | | | DAX | 25,389.10 | −0.08% | | | CAC 40 | 8,092.56 | +0.18% | RN Senate gains absorbed | | FTSE 100 | 10,728.86 | +0.31% | Taylor Wimpey +23%, Vistry +20%, Bellway +20% | | FTSE MIB | 51,937.16 | +0.14% | | | IBEX 35 | 19,666.10 | −0.17% | |
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| Global 10-year yields (CNBC, vs prior close) |
| Market | Yield | bp chg | Note | | Germany 10Y | 3.644% | +2.1 | German 2Y +1 bp (CNBC) | | UK 10Y | 5.417% | +5.2 | UK 2Y +5 bp into Labour conference | | Japan 10Y | 3.094% | +0.6 | Near 1996 highs, but quiet | | Italy 10Y | 4.614% | +7.4 | BTP-Bund 97.0 bp, +5.3 bp | | France 10Y | 4.767% | +4.3 | OAT-Bund 112.3 bp, +2.2 bp |
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| Overnight data: China August industrial profits +4.2% y/y (Jan-Aug +15.7% vs +17.6%). BTP-Bund on CNBC levels: 91.7 → 97.0 bp. |
| What this hands the U.S. open. Europe is flat while U.S. futures are −0.5%: the divergence is the tech weight and the U.S.-specific front-end move (U.S. 2Y +6 bp vs German 2Y +1 bp). Asia's losses were concentrated where markets had been shut (Korea, China), so they are catch-up, not new information. By sector: energy up, miners and memory down, defensives relatively better. By asset: the U.S. 2-year is the transmission line; the dollar is only +0.19%, so the equity damage is rates-led rather than FX-led. |
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4 · Pre-Market Movers & Single-Name Catalysts |
| CNBC extended-hours quotes (type PRE_MKT) stamped 7:00-7:11 AM ET; change vs Friday's close. Volume is pre-market shares. |
| Up |
| Ticker | Pre-mkt | % | Vol | Catalyst | | KOD (non-S&P) | $52.85 | +63.37% | 1.43M | Catalyst not identified in coverage read | | APA | $43.95 | +2.83% | 7.5K | Brent +4%; thin | | DVN | $48.10 | +2.23% | 22.6K | Reverses Friday's −3.78% | | OXY | $58.11 | +2.20% | 63.7K | Oil beta | | COP | $129.75 | +1.92% | 6.7K | Oil beta | | XOM | $163.41 | +1.76% | 20.5K | Integrated | | VLO | $393.75 | +1.70% | 9.9K | Distillate crack wider (§10) | | CVX | $207.57 | +1.53% | 19.3K | Integrated | | NVDA | $228.44 | +1.50% | 2.49M | Open Agent Safety Platform launch | | TFX | $123.80 | +1.42% | 2.9K | BofA upgrade to Buy, $158 | | MPC | $398.50 | +1.27% | 3.4K | Refiner | | HAL / SLB | $33.17 / $52.02 | +1.25% / +0.93% | 15K / 5K | Oil services |
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| Down |
| Ticker | Pre-mkt | % | Vol | Catalyst | | GFI (ADR, non-S&P) | $34.01 | −15.78% | 539K | Northern Star rejects A$38.7bn bid; gold −3% | | CDE / HL (non-S&P) | $18.10 / $17.20 | −5.83% / −5.44% | 132K / 107K | Silver −4.8% | | NEM | $115.70 | −4.72% | 75K | Gold −3.1% | | FCX | $69.16 | −4.36% | 90K | Copper −2.0%, gold −3.1% | | RBLX | $44.65 | −3.85% | 101K | Jefferies downgrade (bookings) | | SNDK | $1,715.28 | −3.52% | 195K | Memory de-rating into MU print | | INTC | $119.05 | −3.21% | 2.36M | Extends pullback; third day | | ARM (non-S&P) | $300.48 | −3.17% | 105K | AI complex | | META | $729.05 | −3.01% | 518K | Profit-taking after 13% week (CNBC) | | HOOD | $116.22 | −2.66% | 306K | Bitcoin −2.1% | | WDC / STX | $445.00 / $893.74 | −2.59% / −2.52% | 54K / 35K | Storage | | AMD | $616.00 | −2.32% | 259K | Semis ex-NVDA | | AAL / UAL / DAL | $13.55 / $111.62 / $83.40 | −2.30% / −2.08% / −1.81% | 127K / 35K / 12K | Jet fuel | | ORCL | $133.99 | −2.27% | 513K | Data-centre funding scrutiny (WSJ, Bloomberg) | | MU | $1,058.00 | −2.24% | 400K | Reports Wed AMC | | BA | $193.90 | −2.11% | 82K | 737 MAX software issue under FAA review | | DELL | $551.54 | −2.02% | 61K | Gives back Friday's +5.0% | | CCL / NCLH | $21.85 / $14.35 | −1.80% / −1.78% | 532K / 61K | Fuel; CCL reports Tue BMO |
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| Megacap board: AAPL −0.45%, MSFT −0.58%, AMZN −0.87%, GOOGL −0.99%, AVGO −1.16%, TSLA −0.65%, JPM −0.48%, GS −0.98%, COST +0.40%. Drift: Akamai, which closed +3.20% at $113.94 after a $129.60 after-hours peak on Thursday, is −1.26% to $112.50: the Anthropic-deal premium is still leaking. Liquidity: APA, COP, TFX, MPC, EOG (622 shares) and SLB traded under 10K shares; treat those percentages as indicative. Bold = S&P 500. |
5 · Overnight Earnings Scorecard |
| Ticker | EPS | Revenue | Guidance / detail | Pre-mkt | Read-through | | No S&P 500 reporter | — | — | Friday AMC and Monday BMO windows were empty for index members | — | — | | KNDI (7:00 AM, non-S&P) | Board shows $0.10 | Board shows $57.1M | Benzinga figures; actual vs estimate basis unconfirmed | — | — | | JEF (tonight, non-S&P) | Est. $1.04 | — | First investment-bank read for Q3 | $47.70, +0.04% | GS, MS, EVR, LAZ | | MTN (tonight, non-S&P) | — | Est. $271.1M | Season-pass sales | no PM print | Travel/leisure |
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| Bold would mark an S&P 500 member; none reported in the window. Jefferies' fiscal Q3 (after the close tonight) is the first read on the Q3 advisory and trading environment; its read-across runs to Goldman Sachs (−0.98% pre-market) and Morgan Stanley ahead of mid-October bank earnings. FactSet/LSEG aggregate scorecard not retrieved; no beat rate asserted. |
6 · U.S. Treasury Par Curve & Rates |
| Official par curve — 3:30 PM ET, Friday 25 September (U.S. Treasury) |
| Tenor | 25 Sep | 24 Sep | Δ 1-day | 18 Sep | Δ 1-week | | 1 Mo | 4.04% | 4.01% | +3 | 3.97% | +7 | | 3 Mo | 4.24% | 4.24% | 0 | 4.14% | +10 | | 1 Yr | 4.50% | 4.51% | −1 | 4.44% | +6 | | 2 Yr | 4.81% | 4.87% | −6 | 4.76% | +5 | | 3 Yr | 4.94% | 4.99% | −5 | 4.83% | +11 | | 5 Yr | 4.98% | 5.03% | −5 | 4.86% | +12 | | 7 Yr | 5.06% | 5.10% | −4 | 4.93% | +13 | | 10 Yr | 5.17% | 5.18% | −1 | 5.01% | +16 | | 20 Yr | 5.54% | 5.53% | +1 | 5.38% | +16 | | 30 Yr | 5.49% | 5.47% | +2 | 5.34% | +15 |
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| Spread | 25 Sep par | Δ 1-day | Δ 1-week | Live (7:09) | Live vs CNBC Fri | | 2s10s | +36 bp | +5 | +11 | +30.8 bp | −0.9 | | 3M10Y | +93 bp | −1 | +6 | +104.4 bp | +4.1 | | 2s30s | +68 bp | +8 | +10 | +61.1 bp | −2.7 |
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| Live pre-open (CNBC, 7:09 AM ET) |
| Tenor | Live | CNBC Fri close | bp overnight | Par 25 Sep | bp vs par | | 2Y | 4.924% | 4.864% | +6.0 | 4.81% | +11.4 | | 3Y | 5.009% | 4.945% | +6.4 | 4.94% | +6.9 | | 5Y | 5.068% | 5.005% | +6.3 | 4.98% | +8.8 | | 7Y | 5.149% | 5.091% | +5.8 | 5.06% | +8.9 | | 10Y | 5.232% | 5.181% | +5.1 | 5.17% | +6.2 | | 20Y | 5.601% | 5.562% | +3.9 | 5.54% | +6.1 | | 30Y | 5.535% | 5.502% | +3.3 | 5.49% | +4.5 |
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| Read. A bear flattener: the 2-year to 7-year are +5.8 to +6.4 bp overnight, the 20- and 30-year +3.3 to +3.9 bp, and 2s10s has narrowed 0.9 bp to 30.8 bp on the live basis. Diagnostic: it is a Fed-path repricing, not an imported move. Bunds are +2.1 bp and the German 2-year +1 bp against the U.S. 2-year's +6.0 bp; the fed-funds strip cheapened 2.0 bp in December 2026 and 5.5 bp at the October 2027 contract; and the trigger (oil +4%) is an inflation input the Fed has been reacting to. Vendor basis: the 2-year's +11.4 bp against the par close is mostly basis; CNBC's own Friday close (4.864%) sat 5.4 bp above the 3:30 PM par fix, consistent with WSJ's 4.868% at 5:04 PM. The overnight move is the CNBC-to-CNBC column. Bills: CNBC's 1M (3.956%) and 3M (4.188%) are on a different quote basis from the par curve and are not compared. Supply and operations today: 3- and 6-month bill auctions at 11:30 AM (prior 4.015% / 4.155%); no coupon auction; Fed Barkin speaks at 1:30 PM. Quarter-end is Wednesday. |
7 · U.S. Macroeconomic Calendar |
| ★ TODAY — Monday, September 28 |
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| ET | Release | Cons. | Prior | Sens. | What a beat / miss does | | 08:30 | No scheduled U.S. release | — | — | — | No pre-open data gap risk; headlines drive the open | | 10:30 | Dallas Fed manufacturing (Sep) | 1.0 | 11.6 | Med | Prices-paid line matters more than headline with oil +4% | | 11:30 | 3- and 6-month bill auctions | — | 4.015% / 4.155% | Med | Quarter-end bill demand tell | | 13:30 | Fed Barkin | — | — | Med | Hike-leaning remarks extend the 2Y move |
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| Consensus and prior from TradingEconomics via the Friday Closing Daily; the Dallas Fed consensus is the board's own forecast. No Very-high release today; the week's first is core PCE on Wednesday. |
| Overnight global data already released |
| Region | Release | Actual / detail | Reaction | | China | Industrial profits (Aug) | +4.2% y/y; Jan-Aug +15.7% (from +17.6%) | CSI 300 −2.22% | | France | Senate elections (weekend) | RN and allies 14 seats, best ever | OAT 10Y +4.3 bp |
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| Rest of this week |
| Date | ET | Release | Prior | Cons. | Sens. | | Tue 9/29 | 10:00 | JOLTS openings (Aug) | 7.271M | 7.23M | High | | Tue 9/29 | 10:00 | Conference Board confidence (Sep) | 89.4 | 90.0 | High | | Tue 9/29 | 13:00-14:00 | Fed Goolsbee, Musalem, Williams | — | — | Med | | Wed 9/30 | 08:15 | ADP employment (Sep) | 38K | 70K | High | | Wed 9/30 | 08:30 | Core PCE m/m (Aug) | +0.2% | +0.3% | V. High | | Wed 9/30 | 08:30 | PCE y/y (Aug) | +3.7% | +3.8% | V. High | | Wed 9/30 | 09:45 | Chicago PMI (Sep) | 47.1 | 51.3 | Med | | Thu 10/1 | 08:30 | Initial claims | 197K | 199K | High | | Thu 10/1 | 10:00 | ISM manufacturing / prices paid (Sep) | 54.6 / 71.1 | 54.8 / 72.0 | High | | Fri 10/2 | 08:30 | Nonfarm payrolls (Sep) | 162K | 100K | V. High | | Fri 10/2 | 08:30 | Avg hourly earnings m/m / unemployment | +0.3% / 4.1% | +0.2% / 4.2% | V. High |
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| Next week (5-9 Oct) calendar not captured in this run; see Data Notes. |
| Look-ahead. The week opens without data and with the oil input moving the wrong way: Brent +4% lands on a core PCE consensus of +0.3% m/m and an ISM prices-paid consensus of 72.0. The market has already added 4.6 points to October's hike odds on the weekend alone. Each Very-high print this week (PCE Wednesday, payrolls Friday, the last labour print before the 28 October FOMC) moves December more than October, because October is already 71% priced. |
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8 · Fed Funds Futures & Rate Path |
| Current target range: 3.75%-4.00% (raised 25 bp on 16 September); IORB 3.90%; ON RRP 3.75%. |
| (i) 28 October FOMC — CME FedWatch alongside Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor |
| Target (bps) | CME NOW | CME 1 day (25 Sep eve) | CME 1 week (18 Sep) | CME 1 month (25 Aug) | | 350-375 | Not retrieved | 0.0% | 0.0% | 45.7% | | 375-400 (hold) | Not retrieved | 35.8% | 42.4% | 44.7% | | 400-425 (+25) | Not retrieved | 64.2% | 57.6% | 9.7% |
|
| Target | Investing NOW (6:45 AM) | Prev. day | Prev. week | | 3.75-4.00 (hold) | 28.8% | 33.4% | 44.9% | | 4.00-4.25 (+25) | 71.2% | 66.6% | 55.1% |
|
| CME FedWatch was not opened this run; its columns are the Closing Daily's Friday 5:55 PM ET capture (labelled as the 1-day anchor) and that edition's 1-week and 1-month columns. Vendor gap reconciled: on Friday evening Investing.com had 66.6% against CME's 64.2% on the same ZQV6 price, a 2.4-point methodology gap (Investing.com attributes the whole October contract to the meeting; CME weights the post-meeting days). Applying the same gap to Investing.com's 71.2% implies CME near 68.8% this morning; that is an estimate and is not presented as a CME print. Both Investing.com columns sum to 100.0%. |
| (ii) Momentum & (iii) macro hooks |
| October +25 on Investing.com: 55.1% a week ago → 66.6% Friday → 71.2% now. December +50: 41.6% → 51.6% → 57.8%. Friday's Iran headline had taken 9.2 points off October (75.8% → 66.6%); the weekend rejection has given back half. Hooks: oil (Brent +4%), JOLTS Tuesday, core PCE Wednesday (+0.3% consensus), ISM prices paid Thursday, payrolls Friday. |
| (iv) 2026 meeting distributions — current [prev day] [prev week] |
| Meeting | 3.75-4.00 | 4.00-4.25 | 4.25-4.50 | Cum. above | Sum | | Oct 28 (96.105) | 28.8% [33.4] [44.9] | 71.2% [66.6] [55.1] | — | 71.2% | 100.0 | | Dec 9 (95.800) | 5.4% [7.5] [11.0] | 36.8% [40.9] [47.4] | 57.8% [51.6] [41.6] | 94.6% | 100.0 |
|
| (v) 2027 modal-range path |
| Meeting | ZQ price | vs Fri close | Modal range | Prob. [pd] [pw] | Cum. above | Sum | | Jan 27 | 95.725 | −2.5 bp | 4.25-4.50 | 46.3% [46.0] [43.9] | 97.6% | 100.1 | | Mar 17 | 95.530 | −3.0 bp | 4.50-4.75 | 41.9% [39.6] [33.9] | 99.3% | 100.0 | | Apr 28 | 95.425 | −4.0 bp | 4.50-4.75 | 36.2% [36.4] [34.8] | 99.7% | 100.1 | | Jun 9 | 95.265 | −5.0 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 32.4% [30.1] [23.1] | 99.8% | 100.1 | | Jul 28 | 95.235 | −4.5 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 32.0% [30.2] [24.0] | 99.7% | 99.9 | | Sep 15 | 95.180 | −6.0 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 31.2% [30.1] [24.5] | 99.8% | 100.0 | | Oct 27 | 95.170 | −5.5 bp | 4.75-5.00 | 28.7% [30.1] [25.8] | 99.3% | 100.1 | | Dec 8 | 95.240 | 0.0 bp* | 4.75-5.00 | 28.4% [28.9] [22.8] | 99.3% | 100.0 |
|
| Cumulative above = 100 − hold (3.75-4.00) − any bucket below, on the vendor's figures. June 2027 moved back up a bucket to 4.75-5.00 (Friday: 4.50-4.75). *December 2027 prints the identical 95.240 as Friday's close while its distribution moved; the price field is likely stale and is flagged in Data Notes. Implied terminal at the cheapest contract: 100 − 95.170 = 4.830%, +5.5 bp from Friday's 4.775%. |
| (vi) Year-end probability ladders |
| Outcome | YE 2026 (Dec 9) | YE 2027 (Dec 8) | | Cut, any size (below 3.75) | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Hold 3.75-4.00 | 5.4% | 0.7% | | +25 (4.00-4.25) | 36.8% | 4.0% | | +50 (4.25-4.50) | 57.8% | 13.0% | | +75 (4.50-4.75) | 0.0% | 24.9% | | +100 (4.75-5.00) | 0.0% | 28.4% | | +125 (5.00-5.25) | 0.0% | 19.4% | | +150 (5.25-5.50) | 0.0% | 7.7% | | +175 (5.50-5.75) | 0.0% | 1.7% | | +200 (5.75-6.00) | 0.0% | 0.2% | | Sum | 100.0% | 100.0% |
|
| (vii) Rounding: Oct 26, Dec 26, Mar 27, Sep 27 and Dec 27 sum to 100.0; Jan, Apr, Jun and Oct 2027 to 100.1; July 2027 to 99.9, all on the vendor's one-decimal figures. |
| (viii) Interpretation. Where it is: +25 bp in October is 71% priced and +50 bp by December 58%, with a 4.75%-5.00% modal range from June 2027. What repriced overnight: most of the weekend move sits in the 2027 strip (−2.5 to −6.0 bp in price, a 5.5 bp rise in the implied terminal), which is the market pricing a longer oil-inflation tail, not just an October decision. What can move it today: no data; Barkin at 1:30 PM and Iran headlines. Practical trade: the carried long ZQZ6 / short ZQZ7 spread marks 95.800 − 95.240 = 56.0 bp against Friday's 58.0 bp (−2.0 bp), but with ZQZ7's price possibly stale the mark is provisional; the cleaner expression of this morning's move is short ZQH7 (March 2027, 95.530) into Wednesday's core PCE, invalidated by ZQH7 back above 95.60. |
|
9 · FX |
| Pair | Level (7:09 ET) | Chg vs prior close | O/N range | Driver | | DXY | 101.165 | +0.19% | 100.98-101.199 | Front-end yields +6 bp | | EUR/USD | 1.1371 | −0.18% | 1.1367-1.1391 | Near the low | | USD/JPY | 157.07 | −0.12% yen | 156.52-157.85 | Yen holds Friday's Bessent gain | | GBP/USD | 1.3250 | +0.01% | 1.3224-1.3274 | Gilts +5 bp offset the dollar | | USD/CHF | 0.8318 | +0.43% USD | 0.8283-0.8319 | Franc weakest G10; at the high | | USD/CAD | 1.4164 | +0.16% USD | 1.4143-1.4165 | Loonie fails to bid on WTI +4% | | AUD/USD | 0.7010 | −0.19% | 0.7007-0.7028 | Copper −2%, gold −3% | | USD/MXN | 17.7858 | +0.64% USD | 17.718-17.813 | EM carry reverses Friday's +1.46% | | USD/KRW | 1,360.60 | +0.51% USD | 1,354.56-1,365.30 | Onshore reopens; Kospi −2.7% | | USD/CNY | 6.7103 | −0.04% | 6.7105-6.7163 | Onshore reopens; stamped 5:49 AM |
|
| Quote basis: CNBC spot, change vs CNBC's prior-day (New York) close; red = foreign currency weaker vs USD. Pairs quoted per dollar show the direction from the dollar side where marked. |
| The take. The informative cross is the franc, not the yen. On a war-risk weekend the haven that should bid, CHF, is the weakest G10 currency (USD/CHF +0.43%), while the yen is flat: the market is trading the headline through U.S. rate differentials (2Y +6 bp), not through safety. The commodity-currency tell agrees: CAD is weaker with WTI +4%, and AUD lower on metals. Equity translation: a modestly firmer dollar is a small headwind for the S&P foreign-revenue cohort; the bigger read is MXN −0.6% and KRW −0.5%, which say EM beta is being cut on the rates move. |
|
10 · Commodities |
| Contract | Price (ET) | Chg vs settle | %Chg | YTD to Fri* | Driver | | WTI (Nov) | $96.21 (6:59) | +$3.80 | +4.11% | +60.99% | Trump rejects Iran offer | | Brent (Nov) | $108.47 (6:59) | +$4.15 | +3.98% | +71.52% | High $108.83; Brent-WTI $12.26 | | Natural gas (Nov) | $3.047 (6:52) | −$0.149 | −4.66% | −13.25% | Front rolled to Nov (note) | | RBOB (Nov) | $3.4463 (6:56) | +$0.0529 | +1.56% | +99.27% | Lags crude | | Heating oil (Nov) | $4.8514 (6:14) | +$0.1667 | +3.56% | +127.33% | Distillate leads products | | Gold (Dec) | $4,188.30 (6:59) | −$132.90 | −3.08% | −0.81% | Fed-hike repricing | | Silver (Dec) | $61.695 (6:59) | −$3.106 | −4.79% | −9.79% | High beta to gold | | Copper (Dec) | $6.6325 (6:59) | −$0.1335 | −1.97% | +18.02% | China profits; risk-off | | Corn (Dec) | $5.2275 (6:59) | −$0.055 | −1.04% | — | | | Wheat (Dec) | $6.975 (7:00) | −$0.0575 | −0.82% | — | |
|
| *YTD is TradingEconomics spot through Friday's close (Closing Daily), not a futures return and not updated for today. Contract months: crude and metals are the same months as Friday's settles (third-party settles WTI $92.41, Brent $104.32, gold $4,321.20). CNBC's continuous @NG/@RB/@HO prior settles ($3.196 / $3.3934 / $4.6847) differ from the Closing Daily's October settles ($3.214 / $3.4098 / $4.8229), so those rows are November contracts. Colours: red = up for energy (cost to the index), and red = down for metals. |
| The take. The weekend took Brent back above Thursday's level: $108.47 against a $106.60 Thursday settle and $104.32 on Friday. The curve tells say it is a supply-risk bid, not speculative: heating oil +3.56% outran RBOB (+1.56%), so the November distillate crack is $4.8514 × 42 − $96.21 = $107.55, while the gasoline crack is $3.4463 × 42 − $96.21 = $48.53; Brent-WTI widened to $12.26 from $11.91 on the same settles, so the seaborne barrel carries the premium. Metals are the rates trade: gold/silver ratio 4,188.30 / 61.695 = 67.89 (from 66.68), silver underperforming a falling gold. Equity read-through: E&Ps and refiners up 1-3%; airlines, cruise lines and chemicals down; gold and copper miners are the worst S&P group pre-market. |
|
11 · Credit & Funding |
| Measure | Latest | d/d | w/w | Context | | ICE BofA IG OAS | 79 bp (24 Sep) | +2 | +1 | Off the 77 bp 2026 tight; YTD 0 (from 79) | | ICE BofA HY OAS | 280 bp (24 Sep) | +7 | +10 | Widest since at least 10 Sep; YTD −3 | | CCC & lower OAS | 1,112 bp (24 Sep) | +19 | +36 | YTD +224 bp (from 888) | | CDX IG / HY 5y | No reliable data available at this time | — | — | No public quote; see Data Notes | | HYG / LQD (Fri close) | $77.86 / $103.21 | −0.04% / +0.06% | — | Both printed 52-week lows Friday | | SOFR (24 Sep) | 3.88% | +1 bp | — | $2,990bn, 99th pct 3.96% | | EFFR / IORB | 3.88% / 3.90% | 0 | — | SOFR−IORB −2 bp | | ON RRP take-up | $576m (25 Sep) | −$54m | — | No buffer into quarter-end | | Reserve balances | $2.930tn | — | −$83.6bn | Week to 23 Sep |
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| FRED's ICE BofA series still end at 24 September (one-business-day lag across a weekend), so the table describes Thursday's close; Friday's print arrives later today. The NY Fed's 25 September SOFR prints at ~8:00 AM, after this capture. Supply and idiosyncratic: Monday typically opens the IG week and a 5.2% 10-year raises the all-in coupon for the AI build-out borrowers CNBC flagged this weekend (JPMorgan's $4.1tn AI-debt estimate through 2030). Brightline, the Fortress-backed Florida railroad, filed for bankruptcy to cut its debt (WSJ); Oracle's New Mexico force-majeure notice remains the data-centre credit overhang (WSJ). |
| The take. The rates move lands on credit that was already widening from the bottom up: CCC +19 bp, HY +7 bp and IG +2 bp on Thursday, and HYG and LQD at 52-week lows on Friday. A 2-year +6 bp and oil +4% is the mix that widens HY more than IG (energy is a large HY weight, which helps, but CCC consumer and tech credits are not). The funding tell is still quarter-end: a SOFR print at or above IORB (3.90%) this week is the warning line. |
|
12 · Trading Views (desk-style, not personalized advice) |
| 1. Energy against airlines for the first hour. Expression: long OXY/DVN/COP equal-weight against short UAL/DAL/AAL, dollar-neutral, quarter size. Catalyst: any Iran headline; the Axios “talks this week” line is the risk. Invalidation: Brent back below $105.00 (a fill of most of the weekend gap). Sizing: beta is high on both legs; keep it small into Barkin at 1:30 PM. | | 2. Duration pain: long YM against short NQ into the open. Expression: dollar-neutral futures pair; the overnight spread is 0.46 points (YM −0.51% vs NQ −0.97%). Catalyst: the 10-year versus Friday's 5.228% high. Invalidation: the 10-year back below 5.18% (CNBC Friday close), or NVDA's +1.5% becoming a sector rally. Sizing: quarter. | | 3. Short March 2027 fed funds (ZQH7) into core PCE. Expression: sell ZQH7 at 95.530. Thesis: the modal March bucket is 4.50-4.75 at 41.9%, and a +0.3% or higher core PCE on an oil shock lifts 4.75-5.00 (22.2%). Catalyst: Wednesday 8:30 AM. Invalidation: ZQH7 above 95.60. Sizing: quarter, DV01-set. | | 4. Miners: wait for the gap test, do not buy the open. Expression: short NEM against long XOM as a gold-vs-oil pair only if gold breaks $4,172.70 (overnight low) after 9:30. Catalyst: the 2-year; gold is trading the Fed. Invalidation: gold back above $4,250. Sizing: eighth; NEM's −4.7% is on 75K shares. | | 5. Memory into Micron: stand aside on the gap. Expression: none at the open; MU −2.2% and SNDK −3.5% pre-market de-rate the complex two days before MU (consensus EPS $31.24, Nasdaq, 10 estimates). A gap-fill above Friday's $1,082.28 in MU by 10:30 would argue for long MU/short SNDK into the print. Invalidation: MU below $1,040. |
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| Vol note. VIX 16.36 at 7:09 AM (+10.0%) against an October VX future of 17.80: contango has compressed to 1.44 points from 2.63 on Friday's closes (17.50 − 14.87), so the market is buying near-dated protection. The VIX-implied daily move is 16.36 / √252 = 1.03%, about 79 S&P points on the 7,702 implied open; an SPX 0DTE straddle quote was not retrieved. Levels: Friday close 7,743.41; Friday range 7,693.08-7,752.07; implied open ~7,702 sits just above Friday's low, and 7,700 is the round number. Not personalized investment advice; verify independently and size to your own mandate. |
|
13 · S&P 500 Earnings Calendar |
| ★ TODAY — Monday, September 28 |
|
| BMO: no S&P 500 reporter. AMC: no S&P 500 reporter. Non-members tonight: Jefferies (JEF, EPS est. $1.04) and Vail Resorts (MTN, revenue est. $271.1M). Option-implied moves: not applicable (no index reporters). |
| Current week (Sep 28 - Oct 2) |
|
| Mon 9/28. No S&P 500 reporter. |
| Tue 9/29. BMO: Carnival (CCL, EPS est. $1.36; pre-market −1.80%), CarMax (KMX, $0.68; −0.24%). |
| Wed 9/30. BMO: Jabil (JBL, $3.86), FactSet (FDS, $4.32), Conagra Brands (CAG, $0.31). AMC: Micron Technology (MU, $31.24; pre-market −2.24%). |
| Thu 10/1. BMO: Accenture (ACN, $3.19), McCormick (MKC, $0.75). AMC: Nike (NKE, $0.44; pre-market −0.84%). |
| Fri 10/2. No S&P 500 reporter. |
| Next week (Oct 5 - Oct 9) |
|
| Mon 10/5. No S&P 500 reporter. |
| Tue 10/6. BMO: Lamb Weston (LW, $0.58; membership borderline, see Data Notes). AMC: Constellation Brands (STZ, $3.63). |
| Wed 10/7. No S&P 500 reporter. |
| Thu 10/8. BMO: PepsiCo (PEP, $2.30). |
| Fri 10/9. BMO: Delta Air Lines (DAL, $2.03). |
| Source: Nasdaq earnings-calendar API (read from a nasdaq.com tab), EPS figures are Nasdaq's consensus forecast; buckets, not clock times. Membership screened against the Closing Daily's component capture. Diff vs the prior calendar: no additions, removals or re-datings this week; next week is new to this edition. One vendor (StockMarketWatch) listed Carnival for Monday; Carnival's own release and Nasdaq say Tuesday 29 September, which is used. |
14 · Risk Map — Today's Session |
| ★ TODAY — Event clock, Monday, September 28 (full session, 4:00 PM close) |
|
| 8:00 NY Fed SOFR for 25 Sep (quarter-end funding tell) · 9:30 cash open (implied SPX ~7,702, −0.54%) |
| 10:30 Dallas Fed manufacturing · 11:30 3- and 6-month bill auctions · 13:30 Fed Barkin |
| 16:00 close · AMC Jefferies, Vail (non-members) · overnight: Iran talks headlines; JOLTS 10:00 Tue |
| Crowded consensuses to stress-test |
| “Friday's Iran rally was the turn.” Already broken by the weekend; the test now is Brent holding above $105. | | “Stocks can ignore 5%-plus yields.” Breaks on a 10-year close above 5.25% with NQ lower on the day. | | “Gold is the hedge.” Broken this morning: gold −3.1% on a war-risk weekend because the hedge is being priced against real rates. | | “AI leadership is intact.” Meta −3.0%, memory −2-3.5%; breaks if NVDA's +1.5% fades below Friday's $225.07. |
|
| Two-sided tape and structural watch. Upside: a resumption of U.S.-Iran talks this week (Trump to Axios) would take back most of the oil move, and Friday showed how fast. Downside: a confirmed strike timetable, or a Houthi hit on shipping, with Brent through $110. Carried items: quarter-end funding (Wednesday), CCC spreads at 1,112 bp, the 30-year near 5.5%, and the AI-safety story (OpenAI's training pause). What the VIX is and is not pricing: 16.36 implies a ~1.0% (~79-point) day, which covers the gap already in futures but not a second leg; the compressed VX contango (1.44 points) says the market is starting to hedge, but it is not pricing a correlated oil-plus-rates shock of the kind the week of 21 September delivered. |
|
| Source Links (Section 15) and Data Notes & Conflicts (Section 16) are in the companion file US_CrossAsset_Opening_2026-09-28_DataNotes.txt. |
| U.S. Stock, Fixed Income & Cross-Asset Opening Daily — Monday, September 28, 2026. Data as of ~7:10 AM ET. Prepared for institutional investors; not personalized investment advice. Sources: CNBC, WSJ, Investing.com, Nasdaq, Benzinga, Yahoo Finance, FRED, NY Fed, U.S. Treasury. |